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The effects of climate change on cereals yield of production and food security in Gambia
83-92Views:1017Increasingly, empirical evidences are substantiating the effects of climate change on agricultural production is a reality. In the early part of the 20th century many were skeptical about the so-called climate change that is due to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) defines climate change as follows: “climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean or variability of its properties and that persists for extended periods, typically decades or longer” This study analyses the impact of climate change on cereals production (millet and maize) in the Gambia using a time series data for a period of 46 years (1960 – 2013) at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate (temperatures and rainfall,) and non-climate variables fertilizer, area planted respectively and yield. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) How climate change affects the expected cereals (Millet and Maize) output or yield in the Gambia. (2) How the level of output risk within cereals (Millet and Maize) farming is affected? In order to achieve these set objectives, the paper will adopt Just and Pope modified Ricardian production functions for climate change impact assessments (e.g., Chen et al. 2004), the paper will also control for the impacts of regular input factors in the production process. The study used a data set for the Gambia comprising variables relevant for cereals production and climate information from 1960 through 2013. There is strong evidence that climate will affects Maize and Millet; according to the analysis 77% and 44% of the variability in the yield of Maize and Millet respectively is explained by the climate and non-climate variables included in the model. Given the effects of climate variables on cereals production, and increasing climate change vulnerabilities on other food production section, the result of this paper will add voice to the growing call for policy makers to step up funding in research and development in climate change adaptation and mitigation.
JEL classification: Q54
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Adaptations to potential impacts of climate change in the “New Hungary” Rural Development Programme
133-137Views:169There are evidences that the climate is changing and the effects on agriculture and wildlife are discernible. Spring is occurring earlier and autumn later, all of which have impacts on agriculture and forestry. Climate change is also predicted to result in more frequent droughts, increased flooding in Hungary, but the relationship between agriculture and climate change is more complex. Climate change has physical effects on farming and farm based wildlife. Agriculture needs to adapt to climate change by exploring, which crops and farming systems are best adapted to the changed conditions. Land management also needs to adapt to preserve biodiversity by protecting valuable habitats and species and helping them in the changing environment. With better management, agriculture and forestry can also mitigate climate change by reducing direct greenhouse gas emissions from land use, land use change and forestry, by producing crops as a source of renewable energy and by protecting carbon stored in soils and in manure. The HRDP comprises of a series of funding based on the following overarching priorities: (i) enhance the environment and countryside, (ii) making agriculture and forestry more competitive and sustainable, (iii) enhancing opportunity in rural areas, whether in the farming sector or the broader rural economy. Actions discussed in this paper are based on the New Hungary Rural Development Programme (2007–2013) and focused on reducing the effects of climate change in rural area. Establishment of agro-forestry systems and integrated pest management help mitigation goals and increase climate change adaptation potential. Minimizing unwanted side effects of agriculture by reducing the use of fertilizer and increasing the safety for environment (soil, water, and air) and human health have positive effects on adaptation potential. Restoration of agricultural production though diversification of agriculture and pastures management, improvement in drain age and irrigation equipment are good examples of adaptation for climate change. Integrated production, which is oriented to controlled cultivation of crops, vine, fruits and vegetables, and improvement of animal rearing conditions to increase production standards and overall welfare are preferred and ecologically sound methods of adaptation.
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Climate change effects on ski tourism
19-26Views:410Nowadays, climate change poses a common recurring problem in our everyday life. The weather forecasts tend to be inaccurate, the swiftly changing weather often makes fun of the people. The same unpredictability applies for forecasting the amount of precipitation or snowing. The major problem in ski tourism consists in the gradual shift of seasons, namely there is no snow in December yet, while at Easter-time we can count on such an enormous amount of snow. I’d like to present this climate condition and offer a sort of way out of this problem. In my empirical study, I have carried out document-analysis along the data collection phase, and I made half-structured deep-interviews, as well.
My research questions were the following: How is the winter season affected by climate change or by the lack of snow? Due to the unreliable climatic conditions what is the estimated ratio of drop in tourism in the season? How much shorter is a skiing-season and how does it affect the operation of the local ski-school? What are the features of pre, and post peak-season tourists’ emergence? How and for how long can a smaller ski-resort be maintained? What is the biggest challenge, problem at the ski-resorts along the state border?
First of all, I’d like to present and tackle the various solutions emerged facing the challenges of climate change effects related to skiing, on the other hand, I have made some personal interviews with Hungarian ski instructors working abroad and also with managers of Austrian ski schools trying to find out the various answers and reactions they have hammered out coping with the new challenges and difficulties in ski tourism.
Hungary can not be considered a skiing nation, although more and more people tend to take up skiing and get involved in this special field of sport tourism. The number of ski slopes being built and developed is increasing, yet the Hungarians ski-lovers tend to visit rather the foreign sport centers for the time being. The reasons mostly involve the various length and versatile difficulty level of the ski slopes. We should also take into account the challenging conditions imposed by climate change on the smaller winter sport centers and the way they can cope with it and also compete with other sport centers with similar features.
Climate change affects considerably the operation of skiing season, and the service providers must adapt to the new conditions. Many resort venues struggle for survival, though most of the local self-governments are clearly aware of the importance of ski-tourism, particularly in Austria. -
Climate change impact on crop production in Central Asian Countries
75-82Views:210Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogeneous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model is used for ex-ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The bio-economic farm model is calibrated to ten farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.
JEL classification: Q11, Q18
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IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PEOPLES’ LIVELIHOOD AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION IN UGANDA
Views:146Livestock sector in Uganda contributes significantly towards individual household income and food security and even though peoples’ dependance on livestock production for survival in Uganda is a reality, it’s also undeniable that livestock, which provides food and revenue on a worldwide scale, would be vulnerable to the direct or indirect consequences of climate change. Agriculture contributed 24.1% of the Uganda’s GDP in the financial year (FY) 2021–2022 and according to the Uganda bureau of standards (UBOS), agriculture employs over 70% of Uganda's working population. The purpose of this present study was to to evaluate the impact of climate change on peoples’ livelihood and livestock production in Uganda. Bibliometric analysis was the quantitative technique used for reviewing and describing published publications that assisted in evaluating academic works from secondary data obtained on digital databases in the context of this study. The VOS viewer software was used as a tool to perform the co-occurrence analysis, and then to realize the visualization of the impact of climate change on peoples’ livelihood and livestock production in Uganda using articles analysed on platform research with associated references from the Web of Science database. The visualisation highlighted topical areas that reflect the impacts of climate on peoples’ livelihood and livestock such as diseases, drought, coping strategies, greenhouse gases, drought, vulnerability, dry lands, mobility among pastoral communities, low productivity, reduced forage resources, elevated temperature extra all of which negatively affects the economic levels of individuals and the national income from livestock either directly or directly. Conclusively, interventions that are aimed at improving climate smartness in Uganda’s livestock farming communities may have significant food security and income benefits for different livelihoods.
Keywords: climate, livestock animals, livelihood, income
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The climate change and agriculture – dimensions and correlations
33-38Views:149Global climate changes are taking place and its impacts on economy are already occurring in fields like tourism, agriculture, forestry, infrastructure, insurance industry or capital market. Specialists draw attention that climate change has negative effects and positive effects. For example, in some parts of Europe, especially in north, the agricultural may benefit from temperature rise increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. The most important part of these changes is due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activity. Between greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest contributor with a weight around of 80% of total GHG emissions. The agriculture is the most affected sector by the climate change, but agricultural activities have many negative implications on environment through emissions of methane and nitrous oxide that result from changes in land use. Besides the negative impact, the agriculture may play a positive role to environment protection through the production of bio fuels. Because of the huge implications of climate change on human activities, the public authorities have made important steps in order to control this phenomenon, to reduce and prevent the negative impact.
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Greener cement sector and potential climate strategy development between 2015-2030 (Hungarian case study)
65-74Views:387Advancing the domestic industrial production towards a sustainable, resource-preserving direction can become an important pillar to support competitiveness in the European Union, as well as in Hungary. Reaching the de-carbonization goals for industrial production via lowering the production volume may result in less desirable macro-economic effects, so decisions which concern the industry require a lot of attention from the climate policy as well. In the case of the cement sector, economic actors have to be motivated to make energy-efficiency investments and technology developments, which also show promise in terms of business efficiency. In the more natural-resource-intensive branches of the industry, both innovations and technological developments will be required to reduce the amount of used non-renewable energy resources, keep it in the industrial cycle, and reduce environmental load. The importance of greener cement will be essential in the near future to reduce the sector’s CO2 emission levels. We need to identify more sector branches which relate to sustainability, which can aid the country in establishing long-term competitiveness that points towards the de-carbonization goals. The cost-efficiency aspects of this development process are the most tedious questions in today’s business planning.
JEL classification: Q55
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Low-carbon innovation policy with the use of biorenewables in the transport sector until 2030
45-52Views:181The topic of the present study deals with the changes and future trends of the European Union’s climate policy. In addition, it studies the manner in which Hungary’s transport sector contributes to the success of the above. The general opinion of Hungarian climate policy is that the country has no need of any substantial climate policy measures, since it will be able to reach its emission reduction targets anyway. This is mostly true, because the basis year for the long term goals is around the middle/end of the 1980’s, when Hungary’s pollution indices were entirely different than today due to former large-scale industrial production. With the termination of these inefficient energy systems, Hungary has basically been “performing well” since the change in political system without taking any specific steps in the interest of doing so. The analysis of the commitments for the 2020-2030 climate policy planning period, which defined emissions commitments compared to 2005 GHG emissions levels, has also garnered similar political reactions in recent years. Thus, it is not the issue of decreasing GHG emissions but the degree to which possible emissions can be increased stemming from the conditions and characteristics of economic growth that is important from the aspect of economic policy. In 2005, the Hungarian transport sector’s emissions amounted to 11 million tons, which is equal to 1.2% of total EU emissions, meaning it does not significantly influence total transport emissions. However, the stakes are still high for developing a low GHG emission transport system, since that will decide whether Hungary can avoid those negative development tendencies that have plagued the majority of Western European transport systems. Can Budapest avoid the scourge of perpetual smog and traffic jams? Can it avert the immeasurable accumulation of externalities on the capital city’s public bypass roads caused by having road transport conduct goods shipping?
JEL classification: Q58
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Cross-sector analysis of the Hungarian sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Decision – Climate policy perspectives for the Hungarian agriculture within the 2021-2030 EU programming period
17-24Views:185Ever since 2012, the EU ETS (European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme), which is the EU’s climate policy was extended to include the ESD (Effort Sharing Decision) sectors’ (agriculture, transport, building) regulations. As its name implies, this mechanism is based off of shared interests and efforts, all in order to reach the climate goals. Therefore, analysing the agriculture sector from an environmental viewpoint requires the analysis of related sectors as well, since their performances will have an impact on determining the requirements to be met by the agriculture. Seeing that those primarily present in said sectors are not various firms, but people and public utility management institutions instead, the level of regulations draws from the economic state of the various countries in question (GDP per capita). Therefore, member states like ours did not receive difficult goals until 2020, due to our performance being lower than the average of the EU. However, during the program phase between 2021 and 2030, all nations are to lower their GHG (greenhouse gases) emission, and have to make developments to restrict GHG emission level growth within the ESD, which means we already have to estimate our future possibilities. During the analyses, we will see that analysing agriculture from an environmental viewpoint, without doing the same to their related sectors and their various related influences is impossible. The GHG emission goals determined by the EU have to be cleared by the agriculture sector, but the inputs from transport, waste management and building are required nonetheless.
JEL classification: Q58
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Green house gas mitigation and headline targets of Europe 2020 strategy
109-117Views:161Climate change is considered as one of the biggest challenges of XXI century and global action is needed to mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG) and adapt to changing water levels and temperatures, which affect food supply and ecosystem integrity. Climate change will have significant economic and social impacts in many regions of EU and sectors like agriculture is considered to bear greater adverse affects. Less developed regions and certain sections of society (the elderly and/or low-income households) are expected to suffer more from climate change. Climate change policy of EU, adopted in December 2008, includes ambitious targets for 2020. The policy is focused on a sustainable future with an energy-efficient economy by (i) cutting greenhouse gases by 20% (30% if international agreement is reached), (ii) reducing energy consumption by 20% through increased energy efficiency and iii) meeting 20% of energy needs from renewable sources. In the frame of the headline targets of Europe 2020 Strategy, this paper discusses most important greenhouse gas-emitting activities in agriculture, emphasizes the importance structural changes through the modernisation of infrastructure particularly in developing regions of EU and calls for enhancing the competitiveness of economy to promote energy efficiency.
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Development of the European Union’s environmental policy and its measures for climate protection – a review
Views:344The negative impacts of human activities on the environment and nature can be felt worldwide. Thus there is a growing focus on measurements that keep sustainability in mind. As one of the main pioneers of environmental protection and sustainability efforts, these aspects are more and more prevalent in the current environmental policy of the European Union (EU). In this review article, the development of the environmental policy of the EU is presented. After listing the main milestones, the role of the EU in the area of environmental protection, the frameworks built around the goals and the roles of the institutions are discussed. Then – with an international detour – the details of the Paris Agreement about climate change and the state of the 20/20/20 commitments are summarised. In the remaining parts of the article, the focus is on the climate protection goals of the EU for the next three decades, the expected future directions, and the agenda of the von der Leyen Commission concerning climate protection. An important step and tool for achieving the goals set until 2050 is to incorporate climate and environmental protection elements to the 2021-2027 budget of the EU. In order to achieve the expected effects, it is crucial to develop the right tools of the environmental policy, to form a widespread cooperation, to raise awareness, and incentivise and support the innovative solutions in the sustainability area.
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Rural resilience and the role of social capital among farmers in Kirundo province, Northern Burundi
121-125Views:150In Burundi, more than 90% of the active population is engaged in family agriculture, which plays a vital role in food production and constitutes more than 50% of the GDP. Before the civil war of 1993, Kirundo was deemed the “breadbasket of the country”, as the region fed many parts of Burundi through growing particular foods such as legumes and cereals. Family farming was market-oriented. Kirundo alone includes 8 lakes which offer opportunities for field irrigation. Today, this region is the first province in Burundi which shows a high rate of malnutrition, as poverty has increased and a sharp 53.9 % decline in agricultural production has been witnessed between 1996 and 2009. The aim of this article is to analyse the role of social capital through the local association network in improving family agriculture and the resilience to climate change and conflict crisis. In this study, 73 farmers were surveyed in Kirundo province through means of a questionnaire, and the study was completed by collecting secondary data. Analysis of the data reveals that, despite recurrent droughts in that region which caused deaths due to famines and displacement of people to neighbouring countries such as Rwanda and Tanzania, 44% of the farmers who were surveyed were shown to have resilience to climate change. The analysis of data shows that these farmers were members of well organised local associations, and had learned about specific topics such as financial management, processing and storage of agricultural products and livestock. The social capital network positively influences their income and their resilience to climate change and conflict crisis.
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Methane reductions to moderate the global warming effects
59-64Views:167The case-study overviews the possible reduction for the methane gas emission in order to avoid of the more global warming effects and climate change caused by the human activity at latest decades. To collect international data base is for analysing and valuing methane gas emission based on the different country-groups, emphasizing responsibility of developing countries and highly developed countries for gas emission, also the methane emission based is on the economic sectors. China and India have share 8% of China and 2% of India respectively of cumulative CO2 emissions over the period 1900-2005, the US and the EU are responsible for more than half of emissions. Based on the estimation the global gas emissions of methane in the whole world has increased by 37% for period of 1990- 2030, as four decades, and this was 0,92% annual rate growth, while the OECD has increased the methane emission by 8,5% for this period, which means 0,21% growth rate annually. Scenario in developing countries for 2013-2020 the methane gas emission reduction could have been 8200 Mt of CO2e (Equivalent) and less than 10 US dollar per ton in more cost financing. Highly developed and developing economies (last one their methane emission share 56% in 1990, estimated 66,8% in 2030) increase their economic growth by mostly fossil energy resulted in increasing also methane gas emissions. The methane gas emission can be solved by those results-based-finance forms relevant to Kyoto Protocol, which can extend in the world by financial institutions.
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Mitigation activities to reduce emission of agricultural greenhouse gases in Hungary
115-119Views:151Pressure on natural resources and the global environment have been identified as the most important challenges to maintain prosperity and improve environmental care. Agriculture is responsible for only a small proportion of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but the sector is more closely associated with emissions of other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The global warming potential of agricultural activities defined as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in CO2 equivalents is relatively low in Hungary, when calculated per land area. However this difference decline, when a GHG emission is calculated per product unit, as yields are lower then in West European countries. Environmental load caused by agriculture is also low in Hungary, where increasing part of EU resources are used for the long-term preservation of natural resources and for the raising of awareness of sustainable farming. The strength of the environmental situation of Hungary, consist of several elements, such as the rich bio-diversity, the significant size of territories falling under natural protection, the extent and importance of forests and the low environmental load from crop production. Among the weaknesses the nitrate load of the animal husbandry farms, the increasing water and wind erosion, the soil compaction and degradation have to be taken into consideration. Climate change has high risk potential and the mitigation activities of the New Hungary Rural Development Programme (HRDP) are investigated in this paper with the aim to increase mitigation activities in rural area and reduce the causes of climate change.
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Proposals for low-carbon agriculture production strategies between 2020 and 2030 in Hungary
5-15Views:309When viewed from the perspective of climate policy, agriculture as a separate sector is one of the most difficult development areas to assess. One of the reasons for this is the problem of the localization of greenhouse gas emitters, caused by the fact that production takes place in small or dispersed production units. The special circumstance that unit production takes place in complex interactive systems (food, feed, energy sources, main products, by-products, etc.) is yet another special factor, which in addition makes it significantly more difficult to measure and identify the GHGs they emit than if they were a uniform production plant. Additionally, there are few sectors outside agriculture where decision-makers encounter such strong opposition and lobby interests when developing limiting regulations. This stems from the fact that following World War II, European decision-makers and the Common Agricultural Policy elevated agriculture to a prominent role whose importance was indisputable. As a result, both climate policy and other measures that would result in any reduction of the priority of the sector are very difficult to implement, since the players involved always reason that limitations would restrict their competiveness and the security of their production. In addition, the uncertain nature of regulatory elements also poses a grave problem. As an example, the name of the sector itself – the LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) sector – shows that the strategy for reducing the greenhouse gasses emitted by the whole sector would be significantly different if these units were treated separately (agricultural land use, forest, not-cultivated areas). Taking the above into account, the present study aims to identify development directions that in turn allow those low-carbon development directions to be pinpointed within animal husbandry and plant production that have the greatest feasibility and can contribute to decreasing the GHG environmental load exerted by agriculture.
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Water footprint in Hungary
83-91Views:192More and more news report on water-related extreme environmental phenomena. Some of these are natural, which are often beyond the human race. But others are definitely due to anthropogenic effects. I think the water footprint index is able to highlight national and international water-use processes and gives us the opportunity of organizing a sustainable, consumer-, environmental- and governancefriendly management. 81% of the fresh water withdrawal is from surface water bodies in the EU. In Europe as a whole, 44% of abstraction is used for energy production, 24% for agriculture, 21% for public water supply and 11% for industry. Public water supply is confined to ground waters. To the water resources related human activity caused qualitative and quantitative amortisation will grow worse in the foreseeable future due to the climate change. Beside seasonal differences the sectoral differences are increasingly becoming critical between different areas, such as Southern and Western Europe. The former, wrong agricultural support system has worsened the situation since it gave financial aid for the used improper techniques of water-intensive crop cultivation. By today, this seems to be solved. Public water abstraction is affected by many factors, of which mostly are based on social situation and habits, but technological leakage receives a big role as well. Interesting, that for example the residents’water consumption in Eastern Europe decreased because price were raised and regular measurements were introduced. But in Southern Europe it increased due to tourism in the past period. Industrial water withdrawal decreased across Europe because of the decline of industry and the development of technologies. According to the European Environment Agency (EEA), the Union needs a sustainable, demand-driven leadership which focuses on the preservation and use efficiency. This have already appeared in politics and legal administration as well. Current research calls the attention to the significance and difficulties of this kind of domestic estimation presented trough the water footprint calculation of bread and pork in Hungary. The received data indicate the domestic water consumption trends in a modern approach. There is no doubt for me about the urgent necessity of water footprint calculation because as a result innovative, sustainability supported environmental, social, economical, and political relationships can be created – not just on local, regional or national level, but on interregional, European and even global stage.
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Potential impact of the European Green Agreement on EU and Hungarian crop production
Views:239European arable farming, including Hungarian arable farming, faces a huge dilemma: how to contribute to and maintain the global food supply while reducing greenhouse gas emissions while main taining biodiversity, but reducing inputs that are potentially damaging to society and the environment while ensuring that no more land is taken out of production? Not to mention that the increasingly urgent need to tackle climate change is also placing additional demands on EU agricultural decision-makers. Under the European Green Deal (GD), the 'From Farm to Fork' (F2F) strategy will help achieve climate neutrality by 2050, with a target of a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Achieving this will require significant changes in food production, a shift in crop health strategies and accelerated innovation in the agricultural sector. The study addresses these issues. Our first hypothesis (A1) is that the GD and F2F strategies can be implemented without problems and without losses. Our second assumption (A2) is that the know-how solutions and the technological conditions for precision agriculture that are already available exist, and that all of these already justify the feasibility of A1. In order to prove this, we have reviewed recent and up-to-date literature on DG and F2F. For A1, we found that there are pro and con findings in the literature. However, the summary finding is not positive. The conclusion of the studies, based on data calculations, is that EU agriculture faces huge additional costs if it is to maintain production and reduce environmental pressures. Their calculations suggest that more people will be disadvantaged by the decisions, and that millions of euros could be lost to the public. However, the article also shows that there are many cases where positive results can be achieved even with reduced chemical use. Facts and figures from international and Hungarian technological and know-how solutions and their trials at plant level show that the DG's objectives are already partially achievable. It has been established that the systematic use of precision technologies allows to increase the natural and at the same time the economic efficiency. In our work we have used the results of primary and recent secondary research. We have shown the downsides of GD, but also that with targeted support, the objectives of sustainability and GD can be approached. Changes in 2022, drastic price increases for inputs including fertilizers and pesticides, inflation at a 20-year high, energy prices spiraling out of control, and an almost unprecedented drought affecting crop production and horticulture, point to the need for a radical change in technology, thinking and regulation. And all this to ensure that there is enough affordable food in Hungary, that there are export products within and outside the Community, and that those working in agriculture have a decent living.
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More insurance subsidies for European farmers – is it needed?
33-38Views:150In addition to traditional sources of uncertainties, such as market price volatility and animal and plant health-related risks, the impacts of climate change have recently become a major concern in the agricultural sector throughout the world. Insurance has been commonly proposed as a key instrument in farm risk management, and agricultural insurance schemes have become more widespread both in developed and developing countries. We conducted a case study in the UK to investigate farmers’ risk perception and willingness to pay for crop insurance by using contingent valuation method (CVM). Similarly to the experience from developing countries, we found that farmers are less willing to pay for insurance, however they do take actions to reduce their risks. While these results suggest that the provision of premium subsidies to European farmers can be justified; in order to avoid counter-productive policy outcomes, one may consider the introduction of a risk-based approach in agricultural risk management.
JEL classification: Q14
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TREND ANALYSIS OF UGANDA’S COFFEE SECTOR
Views:390Coffee (Coffea arabica and C. canephora) is an important commercial crop globally, and the second most traded global commodity by developing nations after oil. Uganda is among the top 10 coffee exporters worldwide, and second in Africa. The total export amounted to 301,366 tons of “green” coffee in 2021, forming the second-largest commodity export, and contributing about 12.4% to Uganda’s total formal exports. However, the country’s overall performance over time remains unclear given the fluctuations in production and export prices. This study aimed to evaluate the production and export trends of Uganda’s coffee sector by: (i) defining the overall direction of coffee production and export value, (ii) assessing the market variability, and (iii) evaluating the global cross-cutting issues regarding coffee production and export. Data was extracted from FAOSTAT and Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) databases. Trends were analysed using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test, while market variability was analyzed using the fixed base index (FBI) and coefficient of variation. VOSviewer software was used to analyze literature from the Web of Science database to highlight cross-cutting issues. Results indicated a significant positive increase in coffee production and export value (p = 0.0001, Slope = 1736.67 tons and p = 0.001, Slope = 4.44 million USD) respectively. Among the top ten coffee producers, Uganda presented the third worst unstable coffee export value with a 20.1% coefficient of variation. Fairtrade, climate change, and certification were the most outstanding global cross-cutting issues. Market stabilization mechanisms should be developed through value addition by establishing coffee processing and roasting plants, as well as strategic governance and policy support to counter emerging global challenges such as climate change.
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Renewable energy resources in Hungary – solid biomass utilization in terms of necessity and opportunity
75-78Views:155In the 21st century a country’s success significantly depends on how it can solve the problems (supply safety, growing prices, climate change, etc.) induced by the application structure of the fossil energy sources with the means of energy saving, energy efficiency and the utilization of renewable energy resources. The utilization of renewable energy sources has positive effects on five key areas: environment protection, energy policies, fulfilment of EU expectations, agriculture and rural development and on the whole of the national economy. The bioenergy – beside fulfilling the national economic aims – it is putting up the value of the role of agriculture and rural development. The role of agriculture is multi-functional in the process. The agricultural sector has an important task in the area of bioenergy to ensure the proper quality and quantity of raw materials for the increase of bioenergy utilization. This also means new sales perspectives and opportunities for the producers. Above all this, the agricultural policy aims for the agriculture and the rural development segment to be the unambiguous winner of the new bioenergy sector and for most of the available profit to stay with the agricultural sector, with the rural players. For this reason encouraging the raw material production it wishes to encourage the producer their primary process and their local utilization. One of the fundamental objectives of the measures is that agriculture should go beyond the raw material production and take steps towards processing and utilization. The multifunctional role in the product chain might mean extra income and more added value for the producers and the active players in the process. The other objective is to promote the local utilization, the scatter of the environmentally friendly energy sources in rural areas, to change the energy is “lying on the ground unutilized” principle while local processing and promoting the utilization, to achieve a lower energy dependency and to optimize and disseminate cost efficient solutions. To realize all this means a great task and a huge challenge for the agricultural government as well as the rural societies and micro regions but might lead to a successful rural development. The range of the tools and measures to fulfil the aims might be very broad, from the regulating instruments to the various subsidies, coordination and dissemination tools. Part of the subsidy schemes are direct production-type of subsidies (the so called direct payments, for example the area based subsidies) and the other main forms are the investment-type subsidies which are for technology development, promotion of competitive production and local processing and for establishing a green energy industry. In the period of 2007-2013 the key elements of the development schemes were drafted in the frame of the New Hungary Rural Development Programme (ÚMVP) and the Environmental Energy Operational Program (KEOP). The available raw materials and the conditions are taken into consideration while designing the development schemes because a successful realization of a product chain means the assurance of the inputs and outputs. The starting point of determining the development direction is the principle of an operation which is sustainable and economical on the long run. In addition such developments are considered reasonable which are viable on medium and long term and bring numerous rural development, environmental and societal returns.
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Enhancing the effectiveness of thermal water consumption via heat pumping
53-58Views:156Renewable technologies and the extension of their scope of usage basically has to face the general obstacles like any other novelties newly introduced to the market. In the case of environmentally friendly and clean technologies we must consider another critical aspect: the knowledge and the trust of the potential future users. To influence these people first we must extend their knowledge regarding renewable energies so they will be able to change their own approach about them. Usually the most crucial factor is the economic efficiency which determines the attitude of the majority of the users. Even the ones whose decision making process is highly based on the environmental patterns. In the case of any technology, the economic aspect is significantly influenced by its operational effectiveness. So this analysis – besides the direct economic matters – aims to examine how the performance of thermal water heating in greenhouses can be improved by using heat pumping.
JEL classification: Q42
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Trajectories of agricultural modernization and rural resilience: some first insights derived from case studies in 14 countries
31-43Views:213In this paper, alternative trajectories of agricultural modernization and rural resilience are explored based on case studies in 14 countries. The analysis is to support discussions about the further development of agriculture at a time when the agricultural sector must respond to an increasing scarcity of natural resources, challenges like climate change, urbanization, demographic change, food security, consumer demands, distributional issues in food value chains and changing urban-rural relations. The discussion relates different trajectories of agricultural modernization to the multiple mechanisms underlying rural prosperity and resilience. The mainstream capital-intensive and technology-driven model of agricultural modernization is contrasted with more incremental, socially embedded and localised forms of development. Potential synergies between different modes of farm ‘modernization’, resilience and sustainable rural development are highlighted and a different future-oriented understanding of the term ‘modernization’ explored. The basis for the analysis are case studies in 14 countries (including Turkey and Israel). The key question asked is how actors are connecting economic, social and natural systems in the different cases and how the connections made (or not) point to different ideas about modernization. The conclusions focus on some current information needs of policy-makers: the links between different forms of farm modernization, rural development and resilience, and the implications for agricultural knowledge systems and the new European Innovation Partnerships. It is emphasized that local capacities for transdisciplinary research need to be strengthened and that more attention should be paid to addressing modernization potentials that are less mainstream. The paper seeks to foster discussions that help overcome simplistic viewpoints of what ‘modernization’ entails. It is based on an earlier review paper by Knickel, Zemeckis and Tisenkopfs (2014).
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Human rationality, environmental challenges and evolutionary game theory
15-19Views:159In recent years, game theory is more often applied to analyse several sustainable development issues such as climate change and biological diversity, but the explanations generally remain within a non-cooperative setting. In this paper, after reviewing important studies in this field, I will show that these methods and the assumptions upon which these explanations rest lack both descriptive accuracy and analytical power. I also argue that the problem may be better investigated within a framework of the evolutionary game theory that focuses more on the dynamics of strategy change influenced by the effect of the frequency of various competing strategies. Building on this approach, the paper demonstrates that evolutionary games can better reflect the complexity of sustainable development issues. It presents models of human – nature and human – human conflicts represented by two-player and multi-player games (with a very large population of competitors). The benefit in these games played several times (continuously) will be the ability of the human race to survive. Finally, the paper attempts to identify and classify the main problems of sustainable development on which the game theory could be applied and demonstrates that this powerful analytical tool has many further possibilities for analysing global ecological issues.
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Value in grass: Matter of fibre and carbs
Views:301Climate adaptation is a major challenge. Chasing the sufficient amount of hay is getting in higher priority. Distant mass hay producers give favourable offers despite long distances. Quality is also gaining position and indicators like RFQ (Relative Forage Quality) is highlighting the marketing language. Hay market as we knew no longer exists in Hungary. Most farmers produce their own hay and do not spend extra cents to buy bales. Climate change however, force them to adapt and store more bales for the future. Horse owners and dairy farmers are the main driver to convince hay producers to provide high quality forage. We gathered Hungarian regional hay-price information and evaluated the trends in this sector. The demand-driven hay-price is in contradiction with premium quality timothy grass hay.
JEL code: Q11
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Portuguese agriculture and its role in multifunctional rural development
145-152Views:161AsinEurope,agricultureinPortugalissupposedtofulfill a multiplicity of roles. It should contribute to supply Portuguese population with quality and safe food, to be viable in a global, competitive, dynamic and aggressive market, to preserve precious cultural landscapes across country through sustainable land management, to assist rural areastobeattractiveandfeasibleandtosupportemployment and social cohesion. Nevertheless, adjustments are expected to adapt to new environmental conditions, mainly climate change, to minimize weaknesses, to hold new opportunities and face new challenges. Otherwise, increases on human desertification, rural areas abandonment and consequent negative effects on territory are predictable.
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