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Swot analysis and identification of the needs, potential and development strategies of the fruit and vegetable sector in Montenegro
15-20Views:193Fruit and vegetable production in Montenegro benefits from naturally favourable conditions in terms of climate, soil and water resources. Such conditions enable high quality fruit, vegetables and vines to be grown, and fruit and vegetable production and viticulture have a long tradition as well as the cultivation of a wide assortment of produce. A significant number of Montenegrin households therefore deal with horticultural and wine production, although on a small-scale. Along with the global market trends, the level of domestic consumption, the expected evolution of the distribution system in Montenegro and the planned dynamic developments in the tourist sector, these natural conditions contribute to creating basic conditions for the development of the considered sector. Market opportunities are favourable and represent an additional contributing factor towards its development. In spite of the favourable climate for production in this sector and the supportive market opportunities, the real value of Montenegrin products at sector level is quite low. We conduct a SWOT analysis of the sector aimed to find out its potential as well as the needs of the sector. Our starting hypothesis is that the potential of this sector in Montenegro is greater than current activity/production, and that suitable strategies can provide higher results in this sector. The main outcome of this paper will be our suggestions for improvement within the sector. The SWOT analysis will be completed according to the PESTEL categorisation, after which Opportunities and Threats will be grouped into three major strategic categories: “New market trends”, “Sector financing” and “Structure and functioning of the value chain”. The SWOT analysis outcomes, when regarded alongside a review of global market trends and domestic production potential, lead to strategies for the improvement of the sector.
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Analysis of economic issues relating to the dairy sector, with emphasis on price transmission
61-70Views:160The dramatic decline in consumption after 1990 was an important problem during the analysis of the sector. Even today, consumption is still below the degree that was before the political change, and significantly lags behind the EU level.The importance of this topic is emphasized by the fact that surplus milk could be marketed through the increased domestic consumption; this would create a more stable and calculable situation for farmers. Therefore, I considered it important to reveal what factors and by what shares influence the consumption of milk and dairy products. The relationship, time series and cross-sectional analysis based on national and international databases demonstrate the relationship between the consumption of milk and dairy products and the other determining factors of consumption in Hungary and in the EU-25 through diagrams. I draw the conclusion that there is a medium correlation between the development of the economy, the higher income level and the consumption of milk and dairy products. Just before our EU accession, the dairy sector was one of the most critical industries of Hungarian agriculture, which is why I chose this for my analysis. I regard as a new scientific result the econometric analysis of the asymmetric market conditions in the price transmission approach within our dairy sector between 1995 and 2003. I confirmed and quantified that the market is under an oligopoly and defined the direction of price adjustment. Furthermore, I regard as a new result in the price transmission analysis (also published in the article published with Dr. József Tóth), that the three possible dimensions (elasticity, a symmetry relations,lag) are analysed simultaneously.Therefore,a more sophisticated picture is given on price transmission. The theoretical advantages and disadvantages are verified by an example of a vertical coordination based on the horizontal cooperation in the dairy sector (Alföldi Tej Ltd).
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Complex problem analysis of the Hungarian dairy farms
93-100Views:241Hungarian dairy farms went through significant changes in past two decades. The most significant changes were caused by our accession to the European Union in 2004. In Hungary milk production remarkably declined after EU accession due to the decreasing level of support and decreasing milk prices. Size of our dairy herd has been practically reducing since the political transformation (1989); meanwhile the relative yields per cow have been continuously increasing. Relatively low prices, high production costs and tightening quality requirements ousted several producers – mainly small farms - from the market in past years. Feeding cost represents the highest rate in cost structure of production, but animal health expenditures and various losses are also significant. Applied technology of the Hungarian dairies lags behind theWestern-European competitors’; in addition they have handicaps in efficiency and product innovation. Moreover Hungarian milk and milk product consumption is about half of the Union average. In 2007 at the University of Debrecen the opportunities and the problems of this sector were discussed in the framework of a research and development project entitled “Project-generating based on sector-specific innovation”.At this workshop farmers, experts and advisers shared their ideas which were all gathered. The main objective of our paper is to provide useful information for the decision makers and the most important members of the sector. Using the practically successful ideas plus the ideas based on previous experience a new strategic concept was created. To reach the objective of this paper we collected, synthesized and analysed the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the dairy farms and performed a SWOT analysis. On the basis of this SWOT analysis we set up a well organised problem hierarchy which would help to identify the main weaknesses of the sector. This analysis gives a great framework for the researches and it also gives a useful tool for the decision makers to improve the competitiveness of the Hungarian dairy sector.
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A disaggregated analysis of monetary policy effects on the agricultural sector in Nigeria
47-58Views:416This study provides a disaggregated analysis of the effects of monetary policy shocks on the agricultural sector in Nigeria from 1981Q1 to 2016Q4. The study utilized the generalized impulse responses and the normalized generalized forecast error variance decompositions from an underlying VAR model, which are order-invariant. The four monetary policy variables used in the study are interbank call rate, monetary policy rate, broad money supply and exchange rate; while the four agricultural sub-sectors investigated are crop production, forestry, fishing and livestock. The study also controlled for the general price level and other economic activities in the overall economy. The findings indicate that the aggregate agricultural sector and its various sub-sectors consistently responded negatively to unanticipated monetary tightening in most of the forecast horizon; while the immediate impact of monetary policy shocks is transmitted to the agricultural sector through the interest rate and money demand (credit) channels. The findings further indicate that apart from these two channels, the roles of monetary policy rate and exchange rate are non-negligible in the long-run. The role of money supply channel in spreading monetary policy shocks to the agricultural sector remained muted all through. The study concludes that the monetary authority should evolve interest rate, credit, and exchange rate policies that will promote the development of the agricultural sector in Nigeria.
JEL CODES: E52; N50; C22; N57
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Agricultural development and government expenditures in the new EU countries
21-35Views:174The main ambition of this paper is to analyse agricultural developments in selected new EU member states with particular emphasis on government expenditures in agriculture. The main objective is to identify the relationship between government expenditures development on one side, and agrarian sector performance (the value of production) in selected member states on the other. The conclusions drawn from this analysis are that the agricultural sector has changed its structure and position within the national economy of selected new EU member states significantly in the 20 years since the early 1990s. Member states included in the analysis reduced both the size of their agricultural sector (number of people working in agriculture, total arable areas, number of animals, etc.), and the value of agricultural output. Despite the significant reduction of the agricultural output, member states became more efficient – and in particular their productivity per farmer increased significantly. Selected country’s agricultural sector, its structure and production value development are closely related to government expenditures. Significant correlation is apparent between agricultural government expenditures and the change in the number of economically active persons in agriculture, development of agricultural production, agricultural area, agricultural GDP and agricultural capital stock. Regarding the elasticity of new EU member states’ agricultural sector in relation to changes in government expenditures, significant elasticity is apparent in the case of the number of economically active persons in agriculture, agricultural production (especially livestock production), area of arable land, agricultural GDP and capital stock.
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Problem analysis of the Hungarian tobacco sector
161-166Views:187The Hungarian tobacco sector went through significant changes in the last decades. The reason of the changes were our accession to the EU, then the changes in subsidiary system, the effect of the world and within the EU’s strict tobacco policy. The number of tobacco farms declined and the future became uncertain for the farmers. Size of the farms increased and there were a concentration in the sector, so the smaller scale farmers’ activity ceased. It causes several problems in rural areas, because one of the main strengths of the sector was its significant role in rural development, as the tobacco in small scales was able to produce an acceptable income in such areas where due to the poor soil quality economically successfully growing for other plants are not suitable. The main goal of this paper is to present the Hungarian tobacco sector and its main strengths, weaknesses, possibilities and threats compared to the European Union’s situation.
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Dairy farms efficiency analysis before the quota system abolishment
147-157Views:210The abolishment of the dairy quota system in the EU is expected to increase competition across dairy farms in Europe. Assuming a common price for milk in the EU, only the most efficient farms will survive in the new environment. The main objective of the research is to compare dairy farms in Germany, The Netherlands and Hungary about their technical efficiency. In the first part of the research, the efficiency is measured by partial efficiency indexes using one dimensional efficiency measuring. In the second part, the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) have to be used to measure efficiency in a multidimensional space, using six inputs and two outputs. It appears from the results that the highest efficiency farms are in the Netherlands, and then Germany and Hungary follow thus, we get that the most efficient farms are in the Netherlands with 84% efficient. The German farms are 76% efficient. The Hungarian farms are 68% efficient. With respect the abolishment of the dairy quota system, our results suggest that the Dutch farms are the most efficient, thus probably they will increase their production after the quota system. But because the size of the country we cannot expect dramatic changes in the European Dairy market. The Germans farms efficiency is lower, but their efficiency is also lower, so we won’t expect high increase about the dairy supply. The Hungarian dairy sector is not so efficient like the Dutch, and the size of the sector has also small among the European countries, thus if they want to survive the quota system demolishing, they have to increase their technical efficiency.
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Economic modelling and analysis of Hungarian wheat production in the marketing year 2011
63-67Views:172In the framework of the present study I analysed the wheat production sector. In order to evaluate the situation prevailing in the sector I conducted an economic analysis which I based on primary data collection. The year of investigation was the production year of 2011. Long-term implications for different crop sectors can only be based on multi-annual analysis, so in this article I only attempted to analyse the sector with respect to 2011. To evaluate wheat production I compiled its cost structure and assessed it. To evaluate its position in comparison to other crops I also carried out calculations to determine the gross margin (revenue minus variable cost)1 By gross margin I mean the gross margin (C), which is production value (PV) minus direct cost (DC), by definition (C=P-DC). of maize and rape. I observed that the gross margin attainable on one hectare was the lowest in the case of wheat. I applied two types of gross margin, because I consider it important that a given sector should also be profitable without subsidies. In the case of the gross margin including subsidies it is essential to emphasize the role of subsidies, since their ratio varied between 30 and 47% of the total revenue. The importance of subsidies was the most significant in the case of winter wheat.
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Analysis the advanced ICT usage of the Hungarian SME sector for preparing a domestic agri-food research
147-153Views:190In the Hungarian agro-food sector SMEs have a key role but regarding the tendency of the performance of SME sector, comparing to EU-28 average, the performance of Hungarian SME sector has gradually worsened between 2008 and 2015 while the EU average has an increasing trend. ICT can help enterprises and this article is an overview of the ICT situation of Hungarian SMEs. It is important to analyse in detail the ICT usage characteristics of agro SMEs in the food supply chain because these ICT devices, tools and services are crucial to smooth the information flow within the chain. For all these reasons our work aims to find out how Hungarian agro-food SMEs use ICT and how ICT adoption affect their business procedures, performance and development. A striking observation to emerge from the data comparison is the difference among SMEs and large enterprises regarding the usage of the different basic and advanced ICT solutions. A much bigger percent of large companies use advanced ICT then SMEs and mainly small enterprises are lagging behind as the attitudes of medium sized enterprises are rather similar to the large ones. In Hungary small enterprises in agro-food industry are in difficult financial state and for them free Cloud Computing services can offer good opportunities as they do not have initial costs. ICT adoption is very important to them as ICT sector is a dynamically growing sector and if customers and partners of an enterprise adapt faster to these technological innovations, it may have a negative effect on the different processes, performance and financial results of the organisation. In this article our aim was to determine the main question groups for our questionnaire which focus mainly on ICT solutions supporting the quality of communication and relationship between partners. As the basic IT tools are available in the major part even in the SMEs besides large companies, the two main issues will be the usage of advanced online services and the usage of high quality ICT solutions.
JEL Code: M15
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Poultry sector analysis in Albania
Views:313Meat production, in specific poultry meat is a very important product for protein and nutrition values for many consumers. With the urbanization of the population people’s diet is shifting towards meat overall, including processed poultry. This has increased the challenges of quality and control over the meat products. (RAIHAN AND MAHMUD, 2018) In general, poultry remains a problematic sector in Albania, with the most common issue being the quality and not the European Union standards and regulations. This paper analysis the egg and poultry products livestock and productions, importing and exporting trends on poultry products, and the potential of development of this sector in the single market of European Union by improving the sector. This study gives an overview in poultry subsector related to livestock and production, international trades, and their market trends. It highlights the supply chain in poultry that can be helpful for poultry businesses and government. It also provides valuable information regarding the impact of quality issues in international market, also the structure of the market for poultry is conducted. Also, the imports and exports on poultry subsector trends and comparison was conducted. The study also consisted of calculations of index number CPI, which indicates the changes in consumer purchasing power.
JEL code: D1
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Cross-sector analysis of the Hungarian sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Decision – Climate policy perspectives for the Hungarian agriculture within the 2021-2030 EU programming period
17-24Views:185Ever since 2012, the EU ETS (European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme), which is the EU’s climate policy was extended to include the ESD (Effort Sharing Decision) sectors’ (agriculture, transport, building) regulations. As its name implies, this mechanism is based off of shared interests and efforts, all in order to reach the climate goals. Therefore, analysing the agriculture sector from an environmental viewpoint requires the analysis of related sectors as well, since their performances will have an impact on determining the requirements to be met by the agriculture. Seeing that those primarily present in said sectors are not various firms, but people and public utility management institutions instead, the level of regulations draws from the economic state of the various countries in question (GDP per capita). Therefore, member states like ours did not receive difficult goals until 2020, due to our performance being lower than the average of the EU. However, during the program phase between 2021 and 2030, all nations are to lower their GHG (greenhouse gases) emission, and have to make developments to restrict GHG emission level growth within the ESD, which means we already have to estimate our future possibilities. During the analyses, we will see that analysing agriculture from an environmental viewpoint, without doing the same to their related sectors and their various related influences is impossible. The GHG emission goals determined by the EU have to be cleared by the agriculture sector, but the inputs from transport, waste management and building are required nonetheless.
JEL classification: Q58
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Proposals for low-carbon agriculture production strategies between 2020 and 2030 in Hungary
5-15Views:309When viewed from the perspective of climate policy, agriculture as a separate sector is one of the most difficult development areas to assess. One of the reasons for this is the problem of the localization of greenhouse gas emitters, caused by the fact that production takes place in small or dispersed production units. The special circumstance that unit production takes place in complex interactive systems (food, feed, energy sources, main products, by-products, etc.) is yet another special factor, which in addition makes it significantly more difficult to measure and identify the GHGs they emit than if they were a uniform production plant. Additionally, there are few sectors outside agriculture where decision-makers encounter such strong opposition and lobby interests when developing limiting regulations. This stems from the fact that following World War II, European decision-makers and the Common Agricultural Policy elevated agriculture to a prominent role whose importance was indisputable. As a result, both climate policy and other measures that would result in any reduction of the priority of the sector are very difficult to implement, since the players involved always reason that limitations would restrict their competiveness and the security of their production. In addition, the uncertain nature of regulatory elements also poses a grave problem. As an example, the name of the sector itself – the LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) sector – shows that the strategy for reducing the greenhouse gasses emitted by the whole sector would be significantly different if these units were treated separately (agricultural land use, forest, not-cultivated areas). Taking the above into account, the present study aims to identify development directions that in turn allow those low-carbon development directions to be pinpointed within animal husbandry and plant production that have the greatest feasibility and can contribute to decreasing the GHG environmental load exerted by agriculture.
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The analysis of absorption capacity of project beneficiaries contributing to cross-border programmes based on the most fundamental criteria
93-100Views:135Subsequent to the experience with the international aid programmes of the 1990’s, from the very beginning of the accession negotiations and since 2004 in particular, the notion of absorption capacity of using EU funds has gradually been in focus. The subject of early scientific investigations concentrated mainly on the analysis of the macro-economic conditions of individual countries; furthermore, on increasing absorption capacities as well as how to develop the institutional system of cohesion policy further. After 2004, however, succeeding further rounds of the enlargement as well as after the programming period 2007-2013 in particular – meaning as well the conclusion of the EU budgetary period – the analysis of absorption capacities could be produced at the level of project beneficiaries. The aim of this study is to examine the most prominent determinants influencing successful outcomes and the quality of vigorous projects managed by potent beneficiaries and consortia participating in the European Territorial Co-operation Programmes with the contribution of Hungary. In the course of research correlations between determinants have been subject to econometric analysis revealing the fact that the implementation capacities of state-owned project beneficiaries and those of the non-governmental sector diverge significantly. Moreover, the study aims to show how the institutional system distributing EU funds tends to be rather lax towards the beneficiaries with weak absorption capacities, thus sacrificing the efficiency of developments for pure statistics.
JEL code: R58
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European traditional food producers and marketing capabilities: An application of the marketing management process
41-46Views:137The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the marketing management capabilities of SMEs producing traditional food products, in order to analyse the market orientation of SMEs in the food industry. Following the theoretical approach of Market Orientation, our analysis is based on an assessment of the marketing management process. The methodology refers to a survey developed through a questionnaire published on the web, and a sample of 371 firms based in Belgium, Italy, Spain, the Czech Republic and Hungary was used in the analysis. Cluster analysis was applied to find the different levels of market orientation of the firms. The results revealed a certain lack of appropriate skills in marketing management in the firms of the sample, confirming the evidence found in economic literature concerning SMEs. Nevertheless, cluster analysis outlined a group of firms with good marketing capabilities and market oriented, and these represent a great part of the sample (40%). With regard to the stages of the marketing management process, the most problematic are those of planning and implementation, and control and evaluation, highlighting the difficulties SMEs encounter in carrying out coordinated marketing; which appears to be generally characterised by poor organisational capacity.
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Vertical price transmission analysis: the case of milk in the Slovak dairy sector
89-96Views:189Testing for nature price transmission and calculating elasticities of price transmission are important areas of research for providing insights into market efficiency issues. Symmetric or asymmetric price transmission has been the subject of considerable attention in agricultural economics. The concept of the price transmission is an important area of the research particularly in relation to the assessment of impact on the welfare of the vertical entities. The main goal of the paper is an analysis of the price transmission and its exploitation in case of price elasticity estimation in dairy sector. Work investigates vertical price transmission of milk in the Slovak agri-food chain. The research is based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) of the selected commodities at producer, processor and consumer level and the estimation of the parameters specified in the model. Moreover the paper determines the coefficient of elasticity of price transmission (EPT).
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Small and medium enterprises as development factor of agribusiness in Republic of Serbia
45-49Views:169Development of strong and competitive sector of small and medium enterprises has very important role in process of total transition in Republic of Serbia. This sector should be one of the guidelines of economical development and future, like in developed countries. Within the Strategy of development of SME and entrepreneurship in Republic of Serbia from 2003 to 2008 government of the Republic of Serbia, not accidentally, placed among many sectors which are expected to contribute and boost economical development, increase the employment rate, and realize increased influx of means deriving from export, the priority is on sector of processing of agricultural products. It can be concluded that significant contribution from agriculture to improvement of total economical situation is expected. Accession to EU should be considered primarily not only as the opportunity but serious task in regard to restructuring of the agriculture. However, impeding circumstance,in regard to export ofagricultural-foodproducts,first ofallto EU countries, isthefact that thismarket is under strict protective measures within the policy of agriculture and measures of agrarian protectionism. In such conditions it is very difficult for producers and processors of food to enter such closed markets. Small and medium enterprises are facing the choice of the business strategy:
– to place the existing product on current market;
– to place the existing product on new markets, including export;
– to sell the new product on existing market;
– to place the new product on new markets, including export.
Therefore, based on analysis of domestic market, volume and structure of import and export of agricultural and food products, as well as analysis of food industry and agricultural production in Serbia, it is necessary to define potential programs for small and medium enterprises with production which could be economically efficient and profitable from the aspect of investment.
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TREND ANALYSIS OF UGANDA’S COFFEE SECTOR
Views:390Coffee (Coffea arabica and C. canephora) is an important commercial crop globally, and the second most traded global commodity by developing nations after oil. Uganda is among the top 10 coffee exporters worldwide, and second in Africa. The total export amounted to 301,366 tons of “green” coffee in 2021, forming the second-largest commodity export, and contributing about 12.4% to Uganda’s total formal exports. However, the country’s overall performance over time remains unclear given the fluctuations in production and export prices. This study aimed to evaluate the production and export trends of Uganda’s coffee sector by: (i) defining the overall direction of coffee production and export value, (ii) assessing the market variability, and (iii) evaluating the global cross-cutting issues regarding coffee production and export. Data was extracted from FAOSTAT and Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) databases. Trends were analysed using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test, while market variability was analyzed using the fixed base index (FBI) and coefficient of variation. VOSviewer software was used to analyze literature from the Web of Science database to highlight cross-cutting issues. Results indicated a significant positive increase in coffee production and export value (p = 0.0001, Slope = 1736.67 tons and p = 0.001, Slope = 4.44 million USD) respectively. Among the top ten coffee producers, Uganda presented the third worst unstable coffee export value with a 20.1% coefficient of variation. Fairtrade, climate change, and certification were the most outstanding global cross-cutting issues. Market stabilization mechanisms should be developed through value addition by establishing coffee processing and roasting plants, as well as strategic governance and policy support to counter emerging global challenges such as climate change.
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Economic issues of duck production: A case study from Hungary
61-67Views:167The Hungarian waterfowl sector is characterised by export orientation, as 55-57% of the revenue comes from exports, so its importance is high in the national economy. The production of slaughter animals in the duck sector has doubled in the last decade. The objective of the study is to examine production parameters, as well as the cost and profit situation of broiler duck production and to reveal the correlations between the factors with a case study through the example of a Hungarian company. The production parameters and cost data of the investigated farm (2014-2016, 96 production cycles) were analysed using descriptive statistical methods, correlation and regression analysis. The results show that the average cost of the duck produced in intensive, closed farming system was between 72.6 and 101.7 eurocent kg-1. The most significant cost items were feed (52-63%) and chicken cost (14-19%). The sales price decreased from 112.9 eurocent kg-1 to 98.4 eurocent kg-1 during the examined period, resulting in a profit from -3.3 to 25.7 eurocent kg-1, and overall profitability was decreasing. The study also revealed that there was no correlation between average cost and final bodyweight, while the correlation between average cost and reared period was weak. At the same time, the relationship between average cost and average daily weight gain, mortality, feed conversion ratio was moderate. In addition, the European Production Efficiency Factor (EPEF) can be adapted to the duck sector as strong, positive relationship can be scientifically verified between the indicator and average cost. There is a close correlation between the sold live weight per m2 and the amount of feed used per m2, as well as between the final bodyweight and the amount of feed used to rear a duck, while the correlation between average cost and the sold live weight per m2 is weak.
JEL Code: Q13, Q19
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Competiveness of the Hungarian pig sector
103-107Views:113The number of Hungarian pig population was 3.2 million in February 2010, 150 thousand less than in the previous year. This included 226 thousand brood sows, 54 thousand less than in the previous year, and this number is expected to fall further next year. In the past two years the number of brood sows decreased to a larger extent in economic organizations than in private farms (KSH, 2010). Despite the rising costs of feedingstuffs, producer prices for slaughter pigs have decreased, therefore private farms with small herds of brood sows haves old their breeding animals for slaughter houses. However, economic organizations mostly tried to restructure their production and place emphasis on plant production, thus improving their situation. These market changes indicate that the sector continues to scale down, production shrinks, market losses are continuous within the sector and vulnerability threaten the players of the product cycle increasingly.
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Analysis of the influential factors on gross value added in the Hungarian sheep sector
107-112Views:143The competitiveness of the Hungarian sheep sector has been in steady decline for some time now. Crucial has been the problem that the value added in the sector is not generated in Hungary, as most of the produced lambs in Hungary leave the country with an average weight of 21 kilograms, with slaughtering happening abroad.A model has been constructed for our investigations, which introduces the connections between the product cycle phases for mutton in Hungary. This model allows us to calculate the volume of gross value added generated within specific product cycle phases. We used Monte Carlo simulation for our examination, for which the Crystall ball software package was utilized, namely the OptQuest module, for optimization. First, we conducted an optimization of an experiment number of 500,000 for “Gross value added” in the case of the slaughterhouse. During the optimization, Easter, Christmas and August lamb ratio and ewe number, as well as progeny, were set as decision variables and examined as values of gross value added, the decision variables of which contribute to obtaining the best results. The gained decision variables were set in the model and a Monte Carlo simulation was run with an experiment number of 500,000, where only the values of the conditions were changed along the pre-set dispersion; the values of the decision variables were fixed. The most significant aim of our investigation was to identify the volume of gross value added generated during processing in various phases of the product chain and the change of which inputs affected this volume the most. The findings proved that, in the case of capital uniformity, the output of processing was most influenced by sheep progeny on the bottom level of the mutton product chain. This factor is followed by that of weight gain in the source material producing and fattening sub-modules, as well as the gross wage in starter lamb feed and meadow hay in the source material producing sub-modules. Contour plots helped to describe the connections between these factors. By using contour plots, the volume of gross value added might be forecast for various combinations of factors.
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Risks and competitiveness in agriculture with emphasis on wine sector in Croatia
11-17Views:142International competitiveness, being a key objective of each economic entity, is at the same time significantly determined by the level of risk the entity is coping. Based on the assumption that risk management is directly linked to competitiveness in agribusiness, the scope of this paper is predominantly focused on the wine agribusiness in Croatia. The aim of this paper is to encompass available literature and transfer findings to interested parties, about risks and competitiveness in agriculture, with particular reference to the wine sector. Qualitative analysis of secondary data, descriptive i.e. monographic method, deductive method and comparison of available papers from the world and Croatia were applied in the paper. There are very few companies in general, however, that tend to use their abilities to manage risks as a source of competitive advantage. These companies go beyond compliance or cost-controlling defensive approaches and take a more aggressive stance toward risk. They have realized that their risk management capabilities can be leveraged as a source of competitive advantage (Elahi, 2013). Current literature showed that such companies indirectly exist within global agribusiness. Examples of such companies in the wine sector could be found in Old World and New World wine countries. In regards with the mentioned, further research in the wine sector that would more directly link competitiveness and risk management and benefits that could be drawn from such “linkage” is needed.
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Commodity Indices Risk and Return Analysis Against Libor Benchmark
55-66Views:144This study analyze the risk and return characteristics of commodity index investments against the LIBOR benchmark. Commodity-based asset allocation strategies can be optimized by benchmarking the risk and return characteristics of commodity indices with LIBOR index rate. In this study, we have considered agriculture, energy, and precious metals commodity indices and LIBOR index to determine the risk and return characteristics using estimation techniques in terms of expected return, standard deviation, and geometric mean. We analyzed the publicly available daily market data from 10/9/2001 to 12/30/2016 for benchmarking commodity indices against LIBOR. S&P GSCI Agriculture Index (SGK), S&P GSCI Energy Index (SGJ), and S&P GSCI Precious Metals Index (SGP) are taken to represent each category of widely traded commodities in the regression analysis. Our study uses time series data based on daily prices. Alternative forecasting methodologies for time series analysis are used to cross-check the results. The forecasting techniques used are Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA. This methodology predicts forecasts using smoothening parameters. The empirical research has shown that the risk of each of the commodity index that represents agriculture, energy, and precious metals sector is smaller compared to its return, whereas LIBOR based interest rate benchmark shows higher risk compared to its return in recession, non-recession and overall periods.
JEL Classification: C43, G13, G15
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Analysis of the process of introducing euro in new member states: Defining lessons for Croatia case study: Slovenia
93-94Views:156On 1 May 2004, EU made a historical enlargement by expanding from 15 to 25 members, and with another enlargement in 2007, EU is now a union of 27 member states. Following the new member states accession to the EU the next challenge for them is joining European Monetary Union and introducing the euro as a national legal currency. This thesis concentrated on the analysis on how the new member states handle the process of joining the Euro-zone with the main objective to examine whether there are any possible lessons that Croatia can apply to its EMU integration path. The thesis is mainly focused on analysing the Slovenian EMU integration process, as this member state has been identified by the Croatian Authorities and Croatian National Bank as the one whose experience Croatia should try to follow. The central questions that are discussed are weather Croatia is economically and politically capable to follow the Slovenian example, and, on the other side, weather the Slovenian example is the best one to follow i.e. should Croatia introduce euro by using the quick EMU entry strategy as Slovenia did. In order to answer those questions thesis focused on analysing and explaining different strategies for euro adoption chosen by the new member states with special emphasis on the strategy of quick EMU entry approach chosen by Slovenia. The thesis also concentrated on analysing the Slovenian political and economical path from Yugoslavia to the EU and especially on its economic performance and key economic indicators prior to introducing euro. Finally, with the aim to compare the economic performance between Slovenia and Croatia and define similarities/differences in their transition and EU accession process, the thesis gave a detailed overview of the Croatian current economical and political situation. After brief analysis of all pros and cons of an early euro adoption, the thesis concluded that following the experiences of small sized countries with opened economies and strong trade orientation towards the countries of the Euro-zone, such Slovenia is, would be a comprehensive and logical strategy for Croatia. Early euro adoption would provide more benefits than costs for Croatian economy and society in general. The thesis also concluded that Croatia should face no major problems when it comes to fulfilling most of the Maastricht criterion on time, in order to be able to adopt the euro in the shortest possible period as Slovenia did. However, the thesis also highlighted that in order to do so Croatia has to put a serious emphasis on improving certain aspects of its current macroeconomic situation, in particular the one concerning the percentage of state sector deficit in the GDP and the size of public debt.
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Analysis of Bathing Habits among Spa Visitors
81-90Views:203The valorisation of healthy lifestyle has indicated the dynamic increase of healthcare sector. The consumer behaviour has been forming deterministically in health tourism. Visitors of spa towns can select various combinations of services either to sustain their health, to rest, to relax or to recover. It has a great importance for spas offering complex health tourism services to know the demands of guests and to reach the target groups with special, personalized service packages. After considering the statistical indicators of tourists visiting the spas of Northern Great Plain Region and the competitors of a selected spa, this paper aims to investigate the coherence among bathing habits, influencing factors of service demands, age and non-motivating coherences. The survey was taken place in a selected spa in Hajdú-Bihar County in August 2018 with random sampling questionnaire involving 256 visitors. During data analysis the coherence among indicators was examined with variant analysis (Levene’s test), in case of significant result with Welch’s t-test. Variances in age groups were analysed with Tamhane’s and LSD tests (post hoc analyses). We concluded that the primary information source of spas is still the suggestion of friends, acquaintances independently of the age of the respondent. Knowing this is relevant for further marketing communication. The most important features among the respondents are the condition of the spa and cleanness which are the basics of quality services. Motivations with coherence to age are social life and gaining experience, recovery and disease prevention. Visitors have the largest interest for family and kid programs. Recognition of bathing habits helps in marketing communication, reaching target markets effectively, pricing and service developments as well.
JEL Classification: Z32
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A structural equation model: Greece’s tourism demand for tourist destination
75-83Views:323Structural equation model (LISREL 8) was applied to test the causal relationships between tourist travel motivations and tourist destination.A survey containing Likert scale questions was conducted to collect data from 100 tourists who had travelled to Greece’s tourist destination. With the help of factor analysis, four dimensions were identified for scales used in the study: travel cost satisfaction, tourism product, tourism product attributes, and tourism product management. Results indicated that the travel cost satisfaction of tourists has a positive influence on tourism product, tourism product attributes and tourism product management. Moreover, our results suggested that the tourist demographics has a positive influence on tourism product and tourism product attributes and has an insignificant relationship with tourism product management. Based on our findings the tourist demographics has not influence on tourism product management. However, these findings suggest that both the private tourism and the governmental tourism sector should develop a better management of tourist destinations so as to develop a stronger attraction of tourism, better amenities, a better accessibility, an appropriate image, to make tourism competitive and to keep tourism product prices at a reasonable level. The implications of the tourism demand model can be used for the public environmental policy-making process based mainly on reasons of interest, ideology or understanding.
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