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Genetic-based personalized nutrition in Hungary – is there a viable business model?
Views:981A move from population-based nutrition guidance toward personalized nutrition may offer a more effective strategy than before to improve dietary habits of citizens worldwide. However, a significant number of consumers are not willing to adopt the highest level of personalization, i.e., gene-based personalized nutrition. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether there is a viable business model for genetically based personalized nutrition services in Hungary, and what business model would promote a higher level of consumer acceptance of the new technology. As a first step, a systematic Internet search was conducted to gather personalized nutrition counselling services that meet four criteria: they are related to nutrition; show some level of personalization; offer a product or service; and use some kind of consumer information to personalize a product or service. The second step was an expert content analysis of the service providers’ websites to identify the nine elements of the Business Model Canvas, based in which business model archetypes were identified. We can conclude that the vast majority of services available in the Hungarian market are based on phenotypic information; gene-based personalized nutrition is only rarely found. Our results suggest that business models of the Hungarian market differ significantly from the models identified by previous research. Of the eight identified business model archetypes, the “All in one place” model would promote a higher level of consumer acceptance of nutrigenomics-based services.
JEL code: I12, M31
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Price risk management using by a specified futures model
97-101Views:208The principal achievement of this paper is to introduce the operation of a specified ‘Futures’ model and it’s practice for decision makers of financial institutes through an example based on the price data’s of grain futures market from EU assessment 2004 to these days in Hungary. Based on a theoretical foundation, the calculation model was developed in order to assist short and long-term marketing decisions. The economical basis of the model is the combinative use of two market institutions: public warehousing and futures market. This electronically developed and working model ‘using excel background ‘allows all of the participants of the market: producers, consumers,banks and traders, to use this model in immediate calculations. In addition it helps in order to establish the own business strategy. The model can be used to analyze price influencing factors therefore; it can also be used for policy-making decisions for market participants as well as banks dealing with trade financing activity.
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An incubator model based on the territorial value chain
43-47Views:281Policies to promote and encourage local foods may take many different shapes depending on both the specific targets and strategies. Some policies, especially at a local level, promote supply-chain vertical and horizontal integration as a comprehensive strategy which aims to help firms pursue several of the promoting policies. A business model that focuses its attention on the consumer of the product and territory can be a crucial driver in generating a ‘land fecundation’ as a response to globalization. The aim of the paper is to investigate the link between rural development and territorialisation, exploring the role of Local Action Groups Integrated Projects of Food Chain and Rural Development Programmes from 2007-2013 in a region in Southern Italy. The article makes use of a value chain approach, starting with Porter’s value chain model and five forces model of competition; it proposes a methodological framework for the development of an organisational model that includes and builds networks between the several stakeholders and local programmes, creating a shared strategy to revitalising the area and the food choices of its residents. This revitalising process takes place through the implementation of a multi-purpose incubator establishing strong partnerships that are able to foster complementarities among all rural stakeholders. Conclusions and implications for policy makers are drawn: a model of territorial organisation could link territorial capital and local stakeholders, and therefore the programming carried out under the entire RDP.
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Comparing parametric and semiparametric error correction models for estimation of long run equilibrium between exports and imports
19-23Views:291This paper introduces the semiparametric error correction model for estimation of export-import relationship as an alternative to the least squares approach. The intent is to demonstrate how semiparametric error correction model can be used to estimate the relationship between Ghana’s export and import within the context of a generalized additive modelling (GAM) framework. The semiparametric results are compared to common parametric specification using the ordinary least squares regression. The results from the semiparametric and parametric error correction models (ECM) indicate that the error correction term and import variable are significant determinants of Ghana’s exports. On the basis of Akaike Information Criteria and Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) scores, it is found that the semiparametric error correction model provides a better fit than the widely used parametric error correction model for modeling Ghana’s export-import relationship. The results of the analysis of variance provide further evidence of nonlinearity in Ghana’s export and import relationship. In effect, this paper demonstrates the usefulness of semiparametric error correction model in the estimation of export – import relationship.
JEL code: C14, C18, C22, F10, F14
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Off-farm participation and technical efficiency among smallholder farmers in the Northern Region, Ghana
35-43Views:399The study aimed at investigating the effects of off-farm participation on technical efficiency of maize production in the Tolon district of the Northern Region, Ghana. The Logit regression model was used to analyze the determinants of off-farm participation while the stochastic frontier production function was used to model the determinants of maize output and technical efficiency. The empirical results from the logistic regression model indicate that age of farmer, educational attainment, farming experience, farm size, and previous farm income are significant drivers of farmers’ participation in off-farm activities. Farmers’ average technical efficiency level was 90.7% suggesting a 9.3% potential loss to inefficiency. Moreover, participation in off-farm activities had a negative influence on farmers’ technical efficiency level. The study, therefore, recommends that farm-level policy should be directed towards making the agricultural sector attractive by promoting investment and agricultural employment opportunities in the rural areas so as to ensure full commitment to farming activities.
JEL code: Q22
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Moral hazard in producer organizations - some experiences of an empirical survey
77-83Views:364A wide range of empirical experiences shows that the performance of Hungarian producer organizations (aka TÉSZ) significantly falls behind the activity observed in the developed Western European countries. Regarding this issue, the present study examines how moral hazard - as one of the possible reasons - influences the producers’ activities in cooperative organizations. Information for the research was collected with the help of a questionnaire survey among the members of PaprikaKert TÉSZ Ltd. A statistical path model has been developed for the research, which assumed that - in addition to a direct effect - moral hazard also affects collaborative activity by eroding trust. The statistical model has been tested both in member-member and members-management relations. The experiences from the survey clearly show that moral hazard exists in the producer organization. According to my results, though its measure cannot be regarded numerically considerable, its negative effect on cooperative activity can be proved with statistical examinations. Its effect can be divided into two aspects: besides a direct effect, an indirect one can also be detected, which means that moral hazard is able to reduce producers’ willingness to cooperate by eroding trust. Moreover, our results have clearly pointed out that moral hazard has a negative impact on member-member and members-management relations to varying degrees and through different mechanisms. In addition to the above tests, the empirical testing of another model called Sholtes trust model has been carried out, too. The validating was successful, so the model - which attributes trust to the faith in the partner’s loyalty and capability - is basically acceptable. The argument says that high-level trust can be observed among partners only when faith both in loyalty and capability is strong enough. The research, however, revealed that the above-mentioned two factors determine it in a different way: regarding trust between members, the faith in capability is more important; while trust towards the management is more determined by faith in loyalty.
JEL code: Q12, Q13
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Selection of agricultural land for multifunctional agriculture
49-52Views:234The modern concept of rural development implies the use of agricultural resources, primarily agricultural land, for other (non-agricultural) activities besides its agricultural purpose. The integral aim of this concept of rural development is the maximization of economic results, besides the sustainable development of rural areas, environmental protection and the production of strategic (staple) agricultural products. The objective of this paper is to define the general, theoretical, quantitative model for the determination of the size and quality of agricultural land which, considering the above-mentioned demands (criteria), is optimal for the utilization in agricultural production in certain regions. The remaining agricultural land would be available for the non-agricultural purposes. The economic optimal model for the selection of agricultural land in the traditional agriculture is the model of linear programming. The criteria of the land selection for traditional agriculture are the economic effectiveness (measured by net income or by gross national product) and the economic efficiency (measured by the production economy). The maximum economic effectiveness is determined by the standard method of linear programming and the maximum economy by the method of broken linear programming. The solution of compromise can be determined by multi-criteria programming, based on the minimum differences. The limitation groups in the mentioned variations of the model are: limitations of production quotas of agricultural products, minimum quantities of staple agricultural products, limitations of processing plants in a region (minimum and maximum), limitation of crop rotation, limitations of the needs in animal husbandry for bulky for age and limitations of agricultural land according to various types of utilization. By quantitative defining of the structure and size of agricultural land for traditional agriculture, “the surplus” and structure of agricultural land available for non-agricultural purposes is automatically determined.
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Economic effectivity of fairs – KAVA Model testing on agricultural exhibitions
115-121Views:302This paper discusses the first experiences with the newly-developed KAVA-model. This model works on cash basis and evaluates cash inflow, outflow and Net Cash-Flow (NCF) in connection with four different interest groups connected to the given exhibition. The model was tested on four different exhibitions: Farmerexpo (Debrecen, Hungary) in 2005 and 2006, OMÉK (Budapest, Hungary) from 2005 and PolagraFarm (Poznan, Poland) 2006.The different fairs can be compared by their relative „economic values” that makes the auditing more reliable.
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DIVESTITURE POST MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS IN INDIA – REASONS AND MODEL TO PREDICT
Views:208Divestitures post-acquisition are a common occurrence yet the jury is still out on whether they represent correction of prior mistakes or are a restructuring tool to improve performance in the hands of managers evaluating overall portfolio of assets. We take a sample of 1,344 deals buy Indian public listed buyers from 2000 to 2020 of which 13% were followed by a divestiture to create models to predict if an acquisition is likely to be followed by a divestiture or not using logistic regression and discriminant analysis. Our model is more than 75% accurate in its prediction even when tested on unselected data (new data for the model). We find support for portfolio theory and reject the correction of prior mistakes theory to explain post-acquisition divestitures. We support the theory that financial constraints leads to post acquisition divestiture. We also support the theory on indigestion that post acquisition divestitures are due to cookie-jar problem where buyers are finding it difficult to integrate. Increased volatility and poor mean stock price returns both contribute to conditions leading to such divestitures. The model constructed is useful for shareholders and other stakeholders to predict whether a divestiture will follow an acquisition or not. Managers can also use the model to predict eventual outcome of their acquisition decisions.
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Examination of the organizational frameworks of sports enterprises in the light of good german practices
41-46Views:310In Hungary, with respect to the organizational issues associated with sports, there has occurred the demand for clarifying structural forms. The domestic development of sports raises the question in which fields the association-based sports model can be sustained, and operated further, and where organizational structures aligned with business models are viable. This article has described an example from German professional football, i.e. given an overview of the operation of Borussia Dortmund as a potential form for the enterprise and organizational solution. The strength of the demonstrated model is that the pursuance of business activities that cannot be or can be just hardly handled in the environment offered by associations is transferred to a setting dominated by economic conditions, whereas self-regulating civil values are not lost either, because the association remains the “parent company”.
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European cycle tourism: a tool for sustainable regional rural development
115-119Views:413We present an economic impacts model based on direct expenditures for European cycle routes, originally designed in 2009 as part of a study commissioned by the European Parliament. At its request, the study was updated in 2012, including a refined version of our model which takes some limitations of the former model into account. Our main findings are that cycle tourists’ daily spending is comparable to that of other tourists, and that cycle tourism can contribute significantly in particular to rural economies that have not previously enjoyed mainstream tourism development. (European) cycle tourism thus proves to be useful as an (additional) tool for regional rural development. We arrived at a total estimated direct expenditures in Europe of almost €44 billion (€35 billion from day trips and €8.94 billion from overnight trips). We applied the model to the routes of EuroVelo, the European cycle route network which is currently being developed, showing their considerable economic potential of over €7 billion in direct expenditures. Furthermore, cycle tourism has a far lower negative impact on the environment (in terms of carbon dioxide emissions) than other forms of tourism. Cycle tourism is therefore a good example of a low carbon tourism product which could be developed as a major slow travel opportunity across (rural) Europe.
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A structural equation model: Greece’s tourism demand for tourist destination
75-83Views:558Structural equation model (LISREL 8) was applied to test the causal relationships between tourist travel motivations and tourist destination.A survey containing Likert scale questions was conducted to collect data from 100 tourists who had travelled to Greece’s tourist destination. With the help of factor analysis, four dimensions were identified for scales used in the study: travel cost satisfaction, tourism product, tourism product attributes, and tourism product management. Results indicated that the travel cost satisfaction of tourists has a positive influence on tourism product, tourism product attributes and tourism product management. Moreover, our results suggested that the tourist demographics has a positive influence on tourism product and tourism product attributes and has an insignificant relationship with tourism product management. Based on our findings the tourist demographics has not influence on tourism product management. However, these findings suggest that both the private tourism and the governmental tourism sector should develop a better management of tourist destinations so as to develop a stronger attraction of tourism, better amenities, a better accessibility, an appropriate image, to make tourism competitive and to keep tourism product prices at a reasonable level. The implications of the tourism demand model can be used for the public environmental policy-making process based mainly on reasons of interest, ideology or understanding.
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Analysis of the influential factors on gross value added in the Hungarian sheep sector
107-112Views:382The competitiveness of the Hungarian sheep sector has been in steady decline for some time now. Crucial has been the problem that the value added in the sector is not generated in Hungary, as most of the produced lambs in Hungary leave the country with an average weight of 21 kilograms, with slaughtering happening abroad.A model has been constructed for our investigations, which introduces the connections between the product cycle phases for mutton in Hungary. This model allows us to calculate the volume of gross value added generated within specific product cycle phases. We used Monte Carlo simulation for our examination, for which the Crystall ball software package was utilized, namely the OptQuest module, for optimization. First, we conducted an optimization of an experiment number of 500,000 for “Gross value added” in the case of the slaughterhouse. During the optimization, Easter, Christmas and August lamb ratio and ewe number, as well as progeny, were set as decision variables and examined as values of gross value added, the decision variables of which contribute to obtaining the best results. The gained decision variables were set in the model and a Monte Carlo simulation was run with an experiment number of 500,000, where only the values of the conditions were changed along the pre-set dispersion; the values of the decision variables were fixed. The most significant aim of our investigation was to identify the volume of gross value added generated during processing in various phases of the product chain and the change of which inputs affected this volume the most. The findings proved that, in the case of capital uniformity, the output of processing was most influenced by sheep progeny on the bottom level of the mutton product chain. This factor is followed by that of weight gain in the source material producing and fattening sub-modules, as well as the gross wage in starter lamb feed and meadow hay in the source material producing sub-modules. Contour plots helped to describe the connections between these factors. By using contour plots, the volume of gross value added might be forecast for various combinations of factors.
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Factors affecting acceptance of smart retail solutions in Hungary: an empirical study using UTAUT2 model
Views:559In today's digitalisation process, retail is also undergoing a transformation, with the emergence of new smart solutions. Integrating intelligent solutions into a business model means new strategic challenges for retailing companies. The aim of the research is to examine the factors influencing the behavioural intention and use behaviour of smart retail solutions (SRS). The proposed model was based on the extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2). Data was collected by conducting a questionnaire of 302 Hungarian respondents. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and partial least squares (PLS-SEM) estimation were implemented. The results showed that behavioural intention is significantly and positively influenced by effort expectancy and it is significantly and negatively influenced by facilitating conditions. Most of the respondents are not yet regular users of SRS, and the market penetration of front-end intelligent solutions in retail is considered as rather low.
JEL code: M10, M31, O14
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Examination of pig farm technology by computer simulation
25-29Views:276Agricultural production is among the riskiest production activities. Similarly to other branches of agriculture in animal breeding the finished product is the result of complex procedures. The biological technological procedure, the creation of the product is affected by an outstanding number of environmental factors which also cause uncertainties. In the North Great Plain Region of Hungary, sows, gilts and slaughter pigs are produced on a corporate farm. The reliable operation data of this company provide a stable basis for and estimating future costs and revenue and their distributions. Monte Carlo methods are one of the generally accepted tools for modeling risks. The significant independent variables, their ranges and probability distributions, and the correlation between them were inputs to the model. The values of the variables were produced using a random number generator. The computer simulation was performed using @Ris (PalisadeCorporation) software. The study concentrates on the factors affecting the number of off spring (piglets). Model inputs were the mating, mortality and farrowing rates; the costs and the income values based on these rates have been analysed as the output data of the model.
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Consumer approach of health and ayurveda
113-118Views:291The aim of this study was to explore the differences of health interpretation between people with ayurvedic approach and non ayurvedic but health conscious approach. While Ayurveda has a holistic approach to health, the European medicine focuses on its physical aspects (bio-medicinal model). Although theoretically a complex interpretation of health (bio-psycho-social model) is the most accepted in Hungary, we examined whether it prevails on a practical level. We carried out a representative survey (N=1000) to examine the health-related knowledge and behaviour of the Hungarian population. To achieve deeper understanding of the subject, we carried out two focus group discussions. We selected health conscious people in the first group and ayurvedic oriented people in the second group to compare their attitudes towards health. The results showed that the majority of the Hungarian population (83,2%) have recognised that health is more than a bio-medicinal approach, it is built up of physical, psychological, mental and social factors, but in most cases we found huge gaps between recognition and action. During discussions the ayurvedic oriented group construed an interpretation that contained all the five health dimensions of WHO and mentioned spirituality as an additional dimension, while the health conscious group mainly emphasized physical health. We also asked the participants about their own health behaviour and found the same pattern. It can be stated that the Hungarian population theoretically admits an integrative model of health but it does not appear in their health behaviour. It seems that ayurvedic orientation contributes to bringing knowledge to practice. Ayurvedic oriented people have a more complex interpretation of health and are willing to do more for their health, so they are a good target group for prevention campaigns and health care services. It also suggests that the spread of ayurvedic approach could contribute to better health behaviour in Hungary.
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Economic effects of fairs – a complex approach
21-25Views:265A complex economic evaluation of fairs / exhibitions can be considered as a novelty in the current literature. In this novel approach, each stakeholder group involved in a fair is evaluated in numerical terms, taking into account the specific cash inflow and outflow categories of that group. The net cash flow is considered as the economic value since it filters out the accumulations. Adding together all the categories, the so-called complex economic value and effectiveness is established regarding the fair surveyed. A numerical model entitled KAVA was developed in order to carry out the calculations for the complex economic effectiveness of the fair. A practical example of using the model is also shown in the paper.
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Arguments for the optimisation of using biomass for energy production
103-108Views:272Using biomass to produce energy is not a new idea. In the past, the by-products of energy(?) production processes or naturally grown materials were mainly used for energy production. At the same time, during the production of biomass the conventional sources of energy are used (fuels, the embodied energy of which is used in the production of the biomass and equipment, etc.) which must be taken into account when determining the net energy production. This research aims to examine how to optimise the production and use of biomass energy and its supply chain in the energetic and economic criteria system, as well as how to impact upon the managing models of the processes to the energetic and economic parameters of the supply chain; we ask what criteria characterise the natural (environmental), economic and social sustainability, and how they can be implemented e.g. within the framework of an innovation cluster. This article describes a test model, and analyses the results of the model examinations and the conditions for compliance with sustainability criteria. Arguing the environmental, economic and social sustainability among the criteria of the model for evaluation is not possible at all times by means of direct indicators. The results of the research proved that only multi-criteria optimisation models serve a proper decision-making instrument for the evaluation of biomass utilisation for energy production.
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In search of clusters
7-17Views:343The aim of this article is to present the ‘regional cluster quick scan’as an efficient and objective tool to scan a region of interest for the presence, nature and development phase of regional clusters. The ‘tool’developed in this research is based on the relations between the state of cluster development in regions, competitiveness, and economic growth. First, a theoretical model is developed and then this model is applied to a real case to test the validity of the model. The results indicate the possibility of identifying regional clusters and their competitiveness by using Shift and Share analysis.
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Climate change impact on crop production in Central Asian Countries
75-82Views:376Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogeneous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model is used for ex-ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The bio-economic farm model is calibrated to ten farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.
JEL classification: Q11, Q18
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Allocation of structural funds before and after the brexit: An exercise in the economics of cake-sharing
69-71Views:360What impact has the Brexit on the allocation of money from the structural funds? As the UK is a net contributor to the EU budget, the budget for Structural and Cohesion Policy will shrink. This will have an impact on the allocations of the structural funds to the remaining members of the EU. In order to estimate the allocation of the structural funds to the remaining EU members an allocation model is developed in this article. It appears that the model results do not only show the sharing of the cake, but also the size of it.
JEL Code: F00, Q00
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Farm-retail price transmission in Malaysian pork sector
87-92Views:288This study intends to determine the farm-retail price transmission behaviors of pork in Malaysia to serve as a good implication for pork pricing system in Malaysia. Using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2008, markup pricing model, Houck, and ECM approaches were estimated. While many previous studies found that farm-retail price transmission is asymmetric, this study encountered different result where the findings in both the Houck and ECM approaches suggested that the Malaysian pork farm-retail price transmission is symmetric. A change in farm price of pork is likely to have similar direction in change of retail price of pork in Malaysia. The pricing system of pork can therefore be further described by the estimated price transmission elasticities (that derived from the symmetric mark-up pricing model) where retail price is very sensitive to the changes in farm price. A change in farm price is expected to result in a bigger change in retail price of pork while other things remain unchanged.
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Potential of vertical and horizontal integration in the Hungarian fish product chain
5-15Views:376After the economic and political transformation, the output and resource utilization of the Hungarian fish production sector decreased less than in other livestock sectors, and it managed to preserve its income position. As a consequence of the relatively low level of the implemented innovative developments, though, for all the EU assistance available the cooperation efforts did not prove to be very efficient. The relatively favourable income position of several farms led them to a kind of “leisureliness”, and as a result, the level of the applied production technology in many cases did not even reach that of the 1970s. All these circumstances led to the degradation of the innovations and to the expiration of the horizontal and vertical integrations in the sector, leaving the commercial and cooperation forms being typical in an otherwise stabile classical free-market environment. Problems were further increased – amongst other things – by the volatile cereal prices, 27% VAT rate, and the introduction of road toll. After long years, certain farms were to face losses, and the decline of profitability at sectorial level, thus the need for innovation and producers’ co-operations has become imperative. As a solution option to these problems, a model of a product chain containing both horizontal and vertical elements and comprising the entire sector has been developed. Present study introduces this new model, which is established on foreign examples primarily, but takes the Hungarian specialities into account too.
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The operation of the Hungarian broiler product chain
47-50Views:295The general objective of this paper is to present the inner connections of the broiler product chain and the process of value generation in the economic situation of 2007. I introduce the input-output model of the broiler product chain adapted from macro-economic analysis, in which I calculated the direct connections of the product chain phases and between the national economic branches outside the chain. Then I point to the disproportion of the product chain through the profit distribution. Moreover, to evaluate the process of the value generation I demonstrate the value added generated along the value chain (year 2007). On the basis of the results 825 EUR of value added is realized to one ton of ready product (chicken meat), from which the major portion is shared by processing. The paper also determines the added value and the major factors influencing its ratio within the product chain.
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Automated valuation model for livestock appraisal in loaning practice
37-42Views:205Actualization of loan security (mortgage) value is of major importance in Hungarian loaning practice. Due to the recession in economics, the value of agricultural portfolio of banks has decreased a great deal, though not to such a great extent as other branches of the economy. Depreciation of estate stock is compensated with additional collateral security. Besides other stock, often temporarily and out of necessity, livestock is presented as additional collateral security. From the loaners’ point of view, however, the registered inventory value does not guarantee security. The authors have set up an appraisal method giving professional guidance through automated valuation as to how dairy stock can be used as mortgage for loan security. Hereby we are to present the details of both the theory and the methodology of a model that is appropriate for the valuation of dairy livestock on an MS Excel basis. Thus, the process is fast and has more prospects for all parties in the loaning or leasing business. The method involves the features of livestock technology, the expected realized profit, and breed stock value. By the implementation of this method, the loaners can calculate the value of loan recovery (loan to value) with acceptable security.
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