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MONTE CARLO SIMULATION FOR STRESS TESTING ENDOGENOUS PROFITABILITY FACTORS DURING POLYCRISIS: A CASE STUDY FROM THE POULTRY SUBSECTOR
Views:64Can historical company data help estimate future performance during economic uncertainty? This study investigates whether past business cycles can be used to estimate profitability in the context of a polycrisis – a period marked by overlapping disruptions such as avian influenza, COVID-19 trade restrictions, extreme weather events, and rising feed and energy prices. These shocks have severely impacted agro-related industries, such as poultry processing. Focusing on three Central European poultry processing companies, we use Monte Carlo simulations for stress testing their profitability for the 2023 period, aiming to support financial planning by analysing firm-specific, endogenous, management-controllable factors. Return on Sales (ROS) and Return on Equity (ROE) are used to evaluate profitability, incorporating variables such as euro exchange rates in the case of export-driven firms. Our results indicate that Company “A,” characterized by stable operations, had the lowest probability of negative ROE, while Companies “B” and “C” demonstrated greater volatility. We found that the model provides a good estimate of the factors affecting the companies’ profitability that are directly or indirectly reflected in their accounting data. Indicating that the test could be a valuable tool for supporting managerial decision-making in financial planning, though further refinements are needed to enhance accuracy.
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THE EFFECT OF FARMER BUSINESS SCHOOL ON HOUSEHOLD WELFARE: EVIDENCE FROM COCOA FARMERS IN ATWIMA NWABIAGYA NORTH DISTRICT, GHANA
Views:344Farmer Business School (FBS) is an educational programme aimed at improving the knowledge and skills of farmers in various aspects of agriculture, including financial management and marketing. The purpose of the paper is to examine the effect of FBS on household welfare among cocoa producers in the Atwima Nwabiagya North District of Ghana. Data was collected from a sample of 330 cocoa farmers, 200 of which participated in the FBS programme and 103 who did not. The study employed a range of statistical techniques to investigate the effect of FBS on cocoa growers, thus, independent samples t-test, binary probit model, Kendall's Coefficient of Concordance and perception index. The results of the study suggest that involvement in the FBS programme has a positive significant influence on household welfare. Cocoa farmers who participated in the programme experienced a significant increase in income and yield, as well as improved overall well-being against those who didn't take part. The research's findings offer evidence that FBS programmes can play a vital role in enhancing the welfare of farmers, particularly in developing nations where agricultural livelihoods play a crucial role in economic growth and poverty reduction. The study highlights the importance of investing in education and training programmes for farmers to improve their skills, knowledge, and overall well-being.
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The connenction between global innovation index and economic well-being indexes
87-92Views:860We study the connection of innovation in 126 countries by different well-being indicators and whether there are differences among geographical regions with respect to innovation index score. We approach and define innovation based on Global Innovation Index (GII). The following well-being indicators were emphasized in the research: GDP per capita measured at purchasing power parity, unemployment rate, life expectancy, crude mortality rate, human development index (HDI). Innovation index score was downloaded from the joint publication of 2018 of Cornell University, INSEAD and WIPO, HDI from the website of the UN while we obtained other well-being indicators from the database of the World Bank. Non-parametric hypothesis testing, post-hoc tests and linear regression were used in the study.
We concluded that there are differences among regions/continents based on GII. It is scarcely surprising that North America is the best performer followed by Europe (with significant differences among countries). Central and South Asia scored the next places with high standard deviation. The following regions with significant backwardness include North Africa, West Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean Area, Central and South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Regions lagging behind have lower standard deviation, that is, they are more homogeneous therefore there are no significant differences among countries in the particular region.
In the regression modelling of the Global Innovation Index, it was concluded that GDP per capita, life expectancy and human development index are significant explanatory indicators. In the multivariable regression analysis, HDI remained the only explanatory variable in the final model. It is due to the fact that there was significant multicollinearity among the explanatory variables and the HDI aggregates several non-economic indicators like GII.JEL Classification: B41, I31, O31, Q55
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Impact of CAP’s pillars on Romanian rural employment
75-80Views:267This paper aims to clarify the direction of change in rural employment on short- and medium term in Romania, while CAP regulations are being introduced and the global economic crisis emerges. First we put into evidence the decrease of the role of agriculture as buffer for unemployment and the poor contribution of non-agricultural activities to provide employment for rural residents.Then we analyse the main characteristics of the rural labour force. Finally we synthesize the opinions expressed by 33 consultants (working at the Offices for Agricultural Consultancy from different counties in Transylvania) about the estimated short term evolution of rural employment and the impact of CAP on Romanian rural areas.
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Portuguese agriculture and its role in multifunctional rural development
39-46Views:305Paper aims to demonstrate the ability or inability of Portuguese agriculture to respond to changing economic conditions as well as societal expectations and demands. The main question is to know how the CAP’s evolutions through a policy with a double emphasis – on market orientation and competitiveness and on sustainability.
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Country-specific determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry agri-food trade: the case of Bulgaria and Romania
69-75Views:274The article analyses patterns and country-specific determinants of agri-food trade of Bulgaria and Romania with the European Union. As literature focusing on agricultural aspects of the topic is limited, the paper seeks to contribute to the literature by providing up to date results and suggestions as well as by identifying the determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade of the Bulgaria and Romania after EU accession. Results suggest that intra-industry agri-food trade is mainly of vertical nature, referring to trade of different quality products. Results verify that determinants of horizontal and vertical IIT are similar and suggest that economic size and FDI are positively, while factor endowments and distance are negatively related to both sides of IIT. Results are mainly in line with the majority of empirical literature in the field.
JEL code: Empirical Studies of Trade – F14
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Composite indicators and sustainable development of regional agriculture applied to the Stavropol Territory in Russia
81-88Views:443The aim of this paper is to understand and evaluate agricultural sustainability in the Stavropol Territory by means of a composite indicator. In particular, the paper applies principal component analyses to calculate a composite sustainability index by integration of selected economic, social and environmental indicators. The results demonstrate the utility of analyzing several indicators in conjunction. The results also may indicate which variables influence development of regional agriculture. This information is important in order to design agricultural support policy and to implement an increase the sustainability of the agriculture sector.
JEL Code: O13, Q11
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Competitiveness of Polish regional Agro-clusters
35-40Views:365The present paper concerns the analysis and evaluation of the performance of regional agro-clusters in Poland and also the examination of the significant basic factors which have influence on it. The objective of the paper is both to rank the 16 Polish regions according to their competitive position in the agrocomplex and to present their economic and social position, show differences and regional contrasts. Also, we compare the outcomes with the overall Polish regional competitive index, which was created in accordance with the Huggins Institute approach.
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Urban Food Crop Farming and Farm Households’ Food Security Status in Oyo State, Nigeria
23-28Views:322Food production and supply has been on the decline in Nigeria with a consequent impact on household food security. This study examined the influence of urban farming on household food security in Oyo State, Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling procedure was used to select 159 farm households in a cross-sectional survey. Structured questionnaire was used to obtain data on socio-economic characteristics, determine the food security status of urban crop farming households in the study area, and examine the effects of urban crop production on households’ food security status. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics while the statistical tools were Food Security Index (FSI) and Probit Regression Model (PRM). Results revealed that 84.9% of the respondents was male, 81.2% married. The average age, household size, and farm size were 49.6 years, 6 persons, 1.1 hectares respectively. Most (75.5%) of the respondents did not have access to consumption credit and 62.3% did not belong to any farmers association. Based on minimum daily energy requirement per adult equivalent of N230.8, 90.6% of the farm households was food secure.
The PRM showed that age (β = -0.1, p<0.05), household size (β= -0.4, p<0.01) and economic efficiency (β = -61.6, p<0.05) reduced the probability of household food security while access to consumption credit (β= 1.7, p<0.05) and allocative efficiency (β = 67.9, p<0.05) increased the probability of household food security. The study concluded that urban farming significantly influence household food security.
JEL Classification: Q11
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THE DECLINE OF TRADITIONAL LIVESTOCK FARMING IN SPAIN AND ITS IMPACT ON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS THROUGH FOCUS GROUPS WITH SHEPHERDS
Views:272Traditional extensive livestock farming has emerged as a potential sustainable development strategy in Europe, particularly to address rural depopulation and provide multiple positive externalities. Despite new European policies emphasizing its importance, the sector continues to decline. This study employs focus group methodology to examine the underlying causes of this decline from the perspective of shepherds. Two discussion groups were held with farmers from the regions of Castilla y León and Castilla-La Mancha in Spain, allowing us to contrast the testimonies of the practitioners with the existing literature. Our methodological approach emphasizes the value of focus groups in capturing complex socioeconomic dynamics within traditional livestock communities.
The findings reveal multiple interconnected challenges: low profitability derived from legal requirements and concentration of demand; increasingly complex access to pastures due to local and state regulations; significant barriers to entry, including economic requirements and bureaucracy; difficulties in work-life balance; bureaucratic obstacles to positive externalities; conflictive relations with the tourism sector; weak associationism; and limited technology adoption. This study contributes to the methodological literature by demonstrating how focus groups can effectively reveal hidden dynamics in declining traditional sectors.
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Agrarian budget as an instrument of agrarian development policy of Serbia
Views:265Purpose of the research is to emphasize the role of agrarian budget in development of Serbian agrarian economy and to examine the problem of agricultural and rural development financingsupport.Furthermore, in this research initial reforms of economic measures have been analyzed concerning Serbian agrarian policy. The goal of this paper is to provide an insight into the role of agricultural budget in agrarian policy of Serbia.The first part of the study gives an overview of macroeconomic situation in Serbia and impact of the financial crisis on Serbia’s economy. Second part includes analysis of the topic item, i.e. agrarian budget role in Serbian agrarian sector. It includes review of relevant literature and researches already conducted on legislation and practice of Serbian agrarian policy as well as examination of statistical data regarding present agrarian budget for 2009.The research focuses at the Serbian agrarian budget for 2009 and agrarian policy of the present Serbian government administration.
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Members of a supply chain and their relationships
131-134Views:385Today, companies do not compete individually on the market, but as members of a supply chain, delivering their goods or services to customers through shared collaboration. The main objective of the members in the chain is to satisfy customer needs, in the interest of which they cooperate in value adding processes. The main objective of the present study is to characterise the members of a supply chain, their relationship and to measure performance. The most relevant literature published on this topic states that investigation of the performance measurement in supply chains from the side of relationships is considered ‘uncharted territory’. However, the operation of a supply chain cannot be described without investigating its relationships.
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Specialities of the corporate tax in connection with the sports organizations
15-18Views:341In 2004 Hungary joined the EU, therefore its tax system is harmonized with EU directives and its trade with the EU is liberalized and exempt from customs restrictions. In the past few years Hungarian government introduced significant corporate tax advances in order to increase Hungary’s competitiveness for foreign capital. With the flat 10% corporate tax rate, Hungary has one of the the lowest corporate income tax rate in the European Union. Since 2011 new corporate tax incentive was adopted in order to create a tax advantageous economic environment for supporting the five most popular team sports in Hungary, namely, football, handball, basketball, water polo and ice hockey. The following article provides a rough guide on the corporate taxation – in particular of sport organizations in Hungary.
JEL code: H25
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Implementing Learning Design by lams to improve teaching and learning
21-24Views:319Learning Design has the potential to revolutionize e-learning by capturing the process of education, rather than simply content. By describing sequences of collaborative learning activities, Learning Design offers a new approach to re-use in e-learning. E-learning has a well developed approach to the creation and sequencing of content-based, single learner, self-paced learning objects.While definitions of Learning Design vary, the main elements tend to include greater focus on context dimensions of e-learning, a more activity based view of e-learning, and greater recognition of the role of multi-learner environments. While Learning Design does not exclude single learner, self-paced modes of elearning, it draws attention to a wider range of collaborative e-learning approaches in addition to single learner approaches. This paper shows an example, which is applied to speciality of economic and rural development agricultural engineer at University of Debrecen and its implementation in the Learning Activity Management System. We created a learning design was implemented at this speciality with LAMS, which is a learning design editing and play back tool that puts the learning process, rather than collections of content, at the heart of e-learning.
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Economics of GM crop cultivation
7-19Views:410Asynchronous approval of new GM crops across international jurisdictions is of growing concern due to its potential impact on global trade. Different countries have different authorisation procedures and, even if regulatory dossiers are submitted at the same time, approval is not given simultaneously (in some cases, delays can even amount to years). For instance, by mid-2009 over 40 transgenic events were approved or close to approval elsewhere but not yet approved – or not even submitted – in the EU.Yet, like some other jurisdictions,the EU also operates a zero-tolerance policy to even the smallest traces of nationally unapproved GM crops (so-called low-level presence). The resultant rejection of agricultural imports has already caused high economic losses and threatens to disrupt global agri-food supply chains. The risk that feed supplies could be affected by a low-level presence of non-EU approved GM material could be resolved if the EU allowed a tolerance for this, rather than operating a strict zero tolerance as now. The Commission has undertaken to come forward with a nonlegislative technical solution to address the difficulties created by a strict zero tolerance policy. To what extent this would be helpful will depend on the nature of the proposed solution.
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The examination of the profitability and competitiveness regarding the energy plantations of woody plants in the region of Észak-Alföld
5-11Views:284Due to the decrease in the quantity of traditional energy sources, in the future an alternative energy production should be sought which provides minimum environmental burden and offers an opportunity to generate energy. The use of biomass provides another option to resolve this problem. The most important features of the biomass are that the quantity doesn’t decrease during conversions and are reproduced by natural processes. The main raw materials of the biomass are considered to be the energy plantations, which are economic in areas where the farmer, during the traditional production, can’t or with difficulties can cover the expenses, so that profitably sustainable cultivation branches can come to the forefront with less material and energy input. Those cases in which the cultivation of agricultural areas are not economically feasible, there is a possible utilization in our country which is the installation of plantations with energetic aim.
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Plant production for biomass into energy: economics and energy efficiency view
65-71Views:327The aim of the paper was to determine the influence of the fertilization level on the energy and economics efficiency of the production technologies of selected crops processed into bioethanol or biogas. There were investigated the following crops: rye, triticale, wheat, sugar beets, maize, sorghum, reed canarygrass and Virginia fanpetals. In the energetic efficiency the Energy Return on Energy Investment index (EroEI) was used. Apart from the ERoEI ratio, the Net Energy Value (NEV) ratio was also used. In the economics efficiency attitude, the Gross Margin (GM) was determined.The investigations proved that in general, the production technologies of crops where the lowest levels of nitrogen fertilization were applied proved to have the highest energetic efficiency. The highest economic efficiency was characterized by the production of corn for biogas. In the case of the production of bioethanol (all plants), ratios were on the verge of profitability or the lack of it showed.The analysis proved that the efficiency of the technologies of production of the crops to be processed into biogas is several times higher than the energetic efficiency of the technologies of production of the crops to be processed into bioethanol.
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CONTRIBUTION OF COMMUNITY BASED ORGANIZATIONS IN ENHANCING RURAL COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT: INSIGHTS FROM OSUN STATE, NIGERIA
Views:58This study examined the contribution of community-based organizations (CBOs) to rural community development in Osun State, Nigeria. Specifically, it described the characteristics of CBOs, identified their goals, types, and development projects, determined their contributions to rural development, and identified challenges limiting their performance. A multi-stage sampling procedure was employed to select 48 registered CBOs across the state, with 180 respondents. Data were collected through structured interview schedules and analyzed using descriptive statistics, while Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) was applied to test the study hypotheses. Results indicated that the mean years of formation of CBOs was 21.3 ± 9.5 years, majority had written constitution with a mean membership strength of 40±12 members. Primary goal of CBOs was economic empowerment of members (85.4%), The most prevalent CBOs included landlord associations and social groups. Most CBOs initiated erection of security gate at community entrance (75%) and provision of vigilante (70/8%). Provision of security for community and government property (mean = 2.83) and implementing of developmental projects (mean = 2.70) were s the most prominent contribution of CBOs. The major constraints affecting CBO performance were lack of funds (mean = 1.85) and lack of government support (mean = 1.51). Statistically significant relationships were observed between contribution and leadership tenure (r = -0.276, p ≤ 0.01), operational constitution (r = -0.406, p ≤ 0.01), and membership size (r = 0.299, p ≤ 0.05). The study concluded that despite the fact that CBOs contributed meaningfully to rural development, their potential remains constrained by limited institutional and community support. It is recommended that government should recognize and institutionalize the role of CBOs in rural development
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Estimation of Armington elasticities: case of vegetables in Mongolia
Views:420Mongolian people often consume meat more than vegetable in diet due to traditional nomadic culture. Nowadays, the Mongolian people’s diet has been changing who consume more vegetables with associated urbanization (half of the population live in urban areas, mostly in the capital city). Even though vegetable consumption has been increased recently, the vegetable market is still a high reliance on imports and threatening national food security. Since 2016, the Mongolian government has especially paid attention to increasing vegetable's domestic production and substitution to import vegetables (Ministry of food and Agriculture, 2017). Therefore, this paper provided to substitution elasticity (the Armington elasticity) between import vegetables and domestic vegetables in Mongolia. Additionally, we estimated the home bias value of vegetables. The so-called Armington elasticities are widely used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis, which determines a degree of substitution between import goods and domestically produced goods. Several of the authors studied Armington elasticities at the product level. We choose six vegetables (such as potato, garlic and onion, tomato, carrot and turnips, cabbage, and cucumber) related to lack of information. The empirical result shows that the Armington elasticities in the long-run higher than the short-run with exception of potato which means that products are similar in the long-run. However, our estimated Armington elasticities are quite lower than the previous studies result which means that Mongolian people indicated more prefer home growing vegetables than import vegetables. Moreover, we found that the home bias value is high in the short-run even long -run, this appears to be a higher relative weight on home vegetables.
JEL code: F13, Q17, Q18
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Agriculture of the countries of the Western Balkans and European integrations
93-97Views:296The paper presents the results of research of agriculture of the countries of the Western Balkans in the period of 2002–2009. Specifically, general economic (GDP per capita, share of agriculture in GDP, inflation rate, and unemployment rate), resource (share of arable land in the total utilized agricultural land, of employees in agriculture in the total number of employees, and of rural population in the total population), and value indicators (value added of agriculture in % of GDP, value added of agriculture per employee in agriculture, producers’ prices of wheat, corn, and bovine milk, share of agriculture in the values of export and import) were compared.
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New venture creation – the influence of entrepreneurship education on students’ behavior (a literature – review based study)
147-153Views:805Entrepreneurship brings economic growth and development through the process of venture creation. These new business enterprises have a very important and positive impact on employment generation, poverty alleviation, and socio-economic development. Entrepreneurship education influences the attitude and behavior of students to form intentions of self-employability. We have analyzed the literature to clearly understand the relationship between entrepreneurship education and intentionality and the underlying mechanisms through which entrepreneurship education impacts intentions to start new ventures. By utilizing the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Social Cognitive Theory (SCT), we propose that entrepreneurship education increases students’ perceived entrepreneurial self-efficacy and perceived desirability for starting new ventures. Entrepreneurial self-efficacy and desirability in turn impact and increase students’ entrepreneurial intentions for creating new ventures. Entrepreneurship Education Programs (EEPs) focusing “Education for entrepreneurship” have more influence on intentionality through self-efficacy and desirability. Comparatively, EEPs concentrating on “Education about entrepreneurship” will have less impacts on the intentionality. The study has important theoretical and practical implications for researchers, academicians, policy makers and potential entrepreneurs – the students.
JEL. Code: A2, L6
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HOUSEHOLDS’ FOOD CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC: EVIDENCE FROM RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Views:330The food consumption behaviour of households has been affected by the lockdown restrictions that were implemented to reduce the COVID-19 infection rate. This study was aimed at analysing the food consumption behaviour of rural households during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. To achieve this, a simple random technique was used to collect data from 120 in Merry Pebble (MP) Stream Village. Thereafter, an Ordered Probit Model was used to examine the extent to which households have increased, decreased or maintained the same quantity of food consumed during COVID-19. The results indicated that 46.7% of the rural households had consumed less food during COVID-19 pandemic, 32.5% consumed about the same amount of food, and 20.8% consumed more food. The variables that contributed towards a decrease in food consumption are employment status, household size, loss of income, and social relief grants. On the contrary, bulk buying and food parcels had stabilised food consumption, while the number of employed people in a household and food bought from restaurants contributed towards an increase in food consumption during COVID-19 pandemic. With regard to consumption behaviour per food item, fresh produce, meat, snacks and fast food were consumed less during COVID-19, while there was a constant consumption in dairy products, and an increase in consumption of canned food, frozen food, prepared food, grains and water. The study recommends that the government should continue with the economic and social relief programmes that were created during COVID-19, as they play an important role in increasing and stabilising food consumption by rural households.
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Future role of agriculture in multifunctional development of rural areas
29-37Views:253In the paper the changes in agriculture in terms of falling share of agriculture in gross domestic product and decrease in the share of persons employed in agriculture in total employment in Poland and selected countries are discussed.The main driver of these changes is a faster pace of development of non-agricultural activities and continually deteriorating relations between the costs of production factors and prices of agricultural products. The rate of growth in labor costs and prices of the means of production for agriculture is much faster than the rate of increase in prices of agricultural products.This causes the decline in profitability of agricultural production which increases the size of farms. The pace is dependent on the level of economic development of the country. The study also identified trends in the structure of farms, functions and systems of agriculture in the generational perspective. The polarization of the farms will deepen.A strong group of commodity farms and a group of so-called self – subsistence social farms will emerge. Agriculture in Poland will have a dual nature. In addition to the production function and social services agriculture will expand the scope of service functions for the environment and society.
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Analysis of demand for wellness and medical tourism in Hungary
57-62Views:467Health tourism in Hungary holds major opportunities. When analysing medical and wellness accommodation data, it can be stated that the Hungarian population is keenly interested in health-related tourism services. From the aspect of further development, health tourism based on medical services can be a take-off point for Hungarian tourism. In my opinion, the next few years will be crucial for Hungary’s ranking among health tourism destinations. The country’s initial circumstances are rather favourable, whereas the revaluation of the quality aspects of these services and the fact that the surrounding countries have also recognised the opportunities in health tourism led to an intensified competitive environment. Consequently, if Hungary does not take advantage of its current opportunities, there will be even less chance to develop the country into the primary thermal and medicinal waterbased health tourism destination of Europe in ten years. Yet, this is one of the foci of the objectives set out in the New Széchenyi Plan.
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Economic issues of duck production: A case study from Hungary
61-67Views:336The Hungarian waterfowl sector is characterised by export orientation, as 55-57% of the revenue comes from exports, so its importance is high in the national economy. The production of slaughter animals in the duck sector has doubled in the last decade. The objective of the study is to examine production parameters, as well as the cost and profit situation of broiler duck production and to reveal the correlations between the factors with a case study through the example of a Hungarian company. The production parameters and cost data of the investigated farm (2014-2016, 96 production cycles) were analysed using descriptive statistical methods, correlation and regression analysis. The results show that the average cost of the duck produced in intensive, closed farming system was between 72.6 and 101.7 eurocent kg-1. The most significant cost items were feed (52-63%) and chicken cost (14-19%). The sales price decreased from 112.9 eurocent kg-1 to 98.4 eurocent kg-1 during the examined period, resulting in a profit from -3.3 to 25.7 eurocent kg-1, and overall profitability was decreasing. The study also revealed that there was no correlation between average cost and final bodyweight, while the correlation between average cost and reared period was weak. At the same time, the relationship between average cost and average daily weight gain, mortality, feed conversion ratio was moderate. In addition, the European Production Efficiency Factor (EPEF) can be adapted to the duck sector as strong, positive relationship can be scientifically verified between the indicator and average cost. There is a close correlation between the sold live weight per m2 and the amount of feed used per m2, as well as between the final bodyweight and the amount of feed used to rear a duck, while the correlation between average cost and the sold live weight per m2 is weak.
JEL Code: Q13, Q19
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