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Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production
79-85Views:327This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management in the decision support of crop production. Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays an important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well. Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop structure, by which income-sensitivity can be taken into account, but it does not reflect the behavior to risk. This deficiency can be avoided by using risk programming models. By the complementary usage of linear programming and risk programming models the optimizing and adaptive planning can be executed. It often causes a problem for the producers to decide when and how much to sell to realize a maximum turnover. The decision is mostly influenced by the selling prices, but also important factors are the financial status of the business, the amount of credit and its conditions, the stock piling opportunities and costs, and the short-term investment opportunities as well. For the resolution of the problem I set up a dynamic, simultaneous financial model by which the system-conceptual analysis of the above mentioned factors and a sound decision-making can be executed.
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INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES’ USE EXPERTISE AND THE UTILISATION BY FRUIT VEGETABLE FARMERS IN NIGERIA
Views:0Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) represent veritable tools for developing farmers’ capabilities in production resource optimisation. The study assessed fruit and vegetable farmers’ expertise and utilisation of ICT for cucumber and watermelon production. Members of the Osun State Exotic Fruit Farmers’ Group were randomly sampled (90 of 102 farmers) for the study. Data were collected using an interview schedule and analysed using descriptive statistics and multivariate regression analysis. Results reveal the farmers’ mean age was 43.8±10.33 years, and two-thirds (66.67%) were male. Low proportions (19.2% and 14.81%) were good and excellent in ICT use expertise, while many (42.96%) were poor. Some (18.89%) explored social media for linking high-value markets, and 16.67% searched online pages or links in learning about artificial pollination. Farmers’ ICT use expertise and extent of utilisation for cucumber and watermelon production purposes were significantly influenced by their familiarity with ICT tools (b = 1.29 and 1.47) and years of ICT use experience (b = 0.09 and 0.16), respectively, at p≤0.05 significance level. Experience and familiarity with ICT usage spurred farmers to greater proficiency and consequent increased utilisation to optimise cucumber and watermelon production. Specialised ICT training should be prioritised for farmers’ capacity building in intervention programmes
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Optimal crop plan of cooperative farmers in Osun state, Nigeria: a linear programming approach
Views:468Optimal level of production requires better use of existing resources at the lowest possible cost. Despite the inherent advantage of cooperatives to the agricultural sector, the question of how farmers under cooperative umbrella use farm resource for optimal outcome remains unanswered. This study investigates optimal crop mix for cooperative farmers in rural communities in Southwest Nigeria. Primary data were collected for the study through structured questionnaire. The data were fitted to Linear Programming Model. Three different cropping patterns are identified among the cooperative farmers. Based on the results from linear programming model, only maize, cassava and yam are admitted in the final plan and this combination is to be produced at 2.23 hectares. The gross margin value associated with the plan is ₦156, 235.781 (1$ = N365). Input resources such as land, labour, fertilizer, and chemicals are not fully utilized. The slack values for these inputs are 0.31, 651.20, 1929.6 and 140.76 respectively. The sensitivity analysis shows that seed/seedling is the only binding resource in the final plan with a shadow price which suggests that proper allocation of seed and seedlings would improve returns to cooperative farmers. There is need for appropriate farm management strategies to ensure optimal return for farmers. More education and training is suggested to boost cooperative farmers understanding of optimum strategy that is needed to improve production and earnings.
JEL code: Q10, Q13
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Resource use efficiency among rice farmers around fragile ecosystems: evidence from Kilombero Wetland, Tanzania
77-88Views:465Farmers have been encroaching fragile wetlands as a strategy to increase their rice production thus threatening wetlands’ existence and capacity to other critical ecosystem services. This calls for efficient production to strike the balance between food rice production and wetlands’ sustainable existence. The current study sought to provide assess rice farmers’ technical efficiency of resource use by detecting the determinants of rice yield and further identify the determinants of technical efficiency of the resources used by rice farmers in Kilombero wetland. A cross-sectional survey of 145 randomly sampled farmers aided in achieving the study objective. A stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) model was used to analyze data. The mean technical efficiency among farmers was at 60.54% level. The positive determinants of rice yield were land and fertilizers while labor influenced it negatively. Age, education, farming experience, group membership, and credit access reduced inefficiency while the distance to the extension agent and off-farm income increased farmers’ inefficiency. The study concludes that there is a possibility of expanding rice production without threatening the wetland’s existence. It recommends that government and other stakeholders to ensure that rice farmers are up-to-date with optimal use of fertilizers in rice production since it will assist in improving rice yield while the rate of expansion of rice lands in the wetlands will lower. Policy implementers ought to establish initiatives that inspire rice farmers to capitalize on farmer groups and join education programs to take full advantage of their potential efficiency and might participate in community development activities.
JEL code: Q15
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Selection of agricultural land for multifunctional agriculture
49-52Views:298The modern concept of rural development implies the use of agricultural resources, primarily agricultural land, for other (non-agricultural) activities besides its agricultural purpose. The integral aim of this concept of rural development is the maximization of economic results, besides the sustainable development of rural areas, environmental protection and the production of strategic (staple) agricultural products. The objective of this paper is to define the general, theoretical, quantitative model for the determination of the size and quality of agricultural land which, considering the above-mentioned demands (criteria), is optimal for the utilization in agricultural production in certain regions. The remaining agricultural land would be available for the non-agricultural purposes. The economic optimal model for the selection of agricultural land in the traditional agriculture is the model of linear programming. The criteria of the land selection for traditional agriculture are the economic effectiveness (measured by net income or by gross national product) and the economic efficiency (measured by the production economy). The maximum economic effectiveness is determined by the standard method of linear programming and the maximum economy by the method of broken linear programming. The solution of compromise can be determined by multi-criteria programming, based on the minimum differences. The limitation groups in the mentioned variations of the model are: limitations of production quotas of agricultural products, minimum quantities of staple agricultural products, limitations of processing plants in a region (minimum and maximum), limitation of crop rotation, limitations of the needs in animal husbandry for bulky for age and limitations of agricultural land according to various types of utilization. By quantitative defining of the structure and size of agricultural land for traditional agriculture, “the surplus” and structure of agricultural land available for non-agricultural purposes is automatically determined.
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Effect of Training on Small-Scale Rice Production in Northern Ghana
13-20Views:431Training in modern farming methods enables farm households in developing countries to improve agricultural productivity. Notwithstanding the efforts of governmental and non-governmental organisations to provide farmers with agricultural training, productivity remains low. The existing literature provides little empirical evidence of the effect of training on agricultural productivity in Ghana. This study therefore seeks to bridge this gap by investigating small scale rice farmers’ participation in agricultural training programmes and its effect on productivity in northern Ghana. A treatment effect model was used to account for sample selection bias. The results indicated that participation in training increased with the number of extension visits, group membership, access to credit and the degree of specialisation in rice production. Furthermore, total output and labour productivity both increased with participation in training but the relationship with land productivity (yield) was insignificant. On average, participation in training was associated with 797kg increase in rice output, while labour productivity increased by 7.3kg/man-day. With the exception of farm capital, all the production inputs had a positively significant relationship with output suggesting sub-optimal use of capital in production. The study concludes that farmers’ training needs are not adequately being met while inadequate capital is constraining farm output. Increasing access to extension service and involving farmer-based organisations in the design and implementation of training programmes will enhance participation and farm performance.
JEL Classification: C21, D24, Q12
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Optimised dairy cow feeding economy in Hungary
69-72Views:410High yielder cows optimal feeding is always a major question in farm management. We attempted to find the optimal yield- and weight group in a Holstein_Freisian herd. Handled more than 2000 milk record samples and concluded that the optimal body weight is about 600-650 kg. Also step up from medium yielder to high yielder is more cost efficient than pushing the milk production over 30 kg milk daily. Our results show that fitness traits and body scores are major factors and every 50 kg of extra weight rises the forage cost in average of 0,11 €cents. The mid-weight cows produce 25 kg of milk daily but the herds are very heterogeneous. The solution should be smaller cows, homogeneous herds and optimized feeding.
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Economic, practical impacts of precision farming – with especial regard to harvesting
141-146Views:470Today agricultural practice is faced with a paradigm shift. In terms of natural resources, the World’s growing population calls for rational management and environment-conscious behaviour. Precision farming may provide a solution for the above mentioned criteria and problems. It has an array of technological equipment, elements and complete systems which are in themselves suitable to create conditions for efficient farming, to reduce environmental load and to provide farmers with optimal return on their investment. Agricultural production has started to focus mainly on efficient crop production and machine operation. Due to this trend, machinery exploitation emerges as a secondary priority for agricultural enterprises. The underlying reason behind this shift is primarily the rise of machinery operation costs. Efficient machinery operation can provide farmers with a solution to reduce their expenditure and through better logistical organization they can obtain extra returns. On the leading edge of my research is to introduce, quantitatively underpin and to justify the application of precision technologies. Our fundamental research methods rely on scenarios and economic calculations.
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The value of quality
21-27Views:517The significance of quality production and quality improvement is widely acknowledged by many but few specify what should be improved and what quality should be produced. The reason may be that there are different quality categories in the process of the value chain. Moreover, the issue of quality costs, i.e. economically optimal quality has not yet been explored yet. The present study raises problems in the pigmeat verticum, but similar studies are needed in other animal husbandry sectors as well. It is reasonable to treat the quality categories of animal products in a complex way, as this allows the full satisfaction of consumer expectations at the certain stages of the value chain and solvent demand as well.
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Effect of uncertainty on farmers decision making: Case of animal manure use
7-13Views:337Due to the high levels of manure application and the poor use efficiency of manure, the European agriculture is held responsible for a considerable negative impact on surface water quality (Langeveld et al., 2007). This problem has emerged particularly in Western-European countries such as the UK, Belgium, The Netherlands and Denmark, facing a large expansion and intensification process in the livestock production since the 1960s (Van der Straeten et al., 2008). Policy measures related to the application of manure on the land encompass two major measures: emission rights, understood as the amount of nutrients which can be applied on the land, differentiated by crop and the N spreading calendars, whereby the manure can only be applied when the crop needs nutrients. The fundamental aim of this pillar is to maximising application rate while avoiding overfertilisation. Maximizing the application rate is related to the economic sustainability of the agricultural sector, by altering the manure surplus, while avoiding overfertilisation is imperative in enhancing ecological sustainability, by preventing nitrate leaching to surface and soil waters. For nitrate policy to meet its target, the farmers should not exceed their emission rights, however make optimal use of their emission right for manure. Consequently, the successful implementation of sink-related measures will strongly depend of the absorptive capacity of farmers towards new ways of nutrient management in general and of animal manures in particular.
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Integrated approach in Ukrainian dairy industry: a case study from Poltava region
Views:513Integration processes in the field of agriculture, and particularly in dairy industry, have real prospects for improving the efficiency of business entities in this industry due to technological features. Particular attention should be paid to vertically integrated business models that allow hedging of various risk groups and minimizing costs due to the optimal combination of the efforts of enterprises belonging to such associations.
The purpose of the article is to study the current state of dairy industry in Poltava Region, Ukraine, and to show one of the conceptual ways to increase its economic efficiency. The paper presents a theoretical hypothesis concerning the necessity of vertically integrated agricultural formation’s creation in order to improve the competitiveness of dairy production in the region and having positive effect on sustainable development of dairy industry.
The practical significance of the study includes the possibility to use findings and recommendations set out in the paper for introduction of mutually beneficial economic relations between agricultural, dairy and trade enterprises in concluding agreements on joint activities based on a successful example from Poltava Region, and contribute to the stabilization, development and increase of the enterprises’ efficiency in Ukrainian dairy industry.
JEL code: F15, Q13
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