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Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA: International tourist arrivals to India and Thailand
43-61Views:173Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment and this method was developed by the Census Bureau in the United States. It has been continually improved since the 1960s, and it is used by many statistics agencies and central banks. The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to India for 2007-2010 and also these data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010. From these period the results confirm that the best forecasting method based on the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1), X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for India and the best forecasting method based on this method is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for Thailand. Furthermore this method predict that international tourism arrivals to India for 2007–2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to India will be 5,079,651 million, 5,652,180 million, 6,224,480 million and 6,796,890 million, respectively. Also this method predict that international tourism arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to Thailand will be 12,211,033 million, 12,699,532 million, 13,187,591 million, 13,674,669 million and 14,161,998 million, respectively. If these results can be generalized for future year, then it suggests that both the India government sector and the Thailand government sector also the private tourism industry sector of these country should prepare to receive increasing numbers of international tourist arrivals both to India and Thailand in this period.
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Disentangling the complexity of India ’s agricultural sector
35-42Views:151Agricultural policies in India directly impact the livelihoods of close to two thirds of India’s population. Through policies, the government manages food security, urban and rural poverty, energy, and infrastructure, among others. Given the current state of India’s governance, the connection between policy making and its results in society becomes a key issue for research. This paper presents a game for use as a research instrument. The game can facilitate research into the policy making process at various levels of the government in India. The design is intended to understand the complexity of the institutional arrangement that defines and implements agricultural policies. The game integrates with other games that simulate other aspects of the agricultural system in India. The paper presents the verification and validation cycles followed, and identifies further steps for field validation.
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On tests for long memory process behavior of international tourism market: Thailand and India
95-99Views:144In our research we examine the behaviour of both Thailand’s and India’s international tourism market by using long-memory analysis. The international tourism market of Thailand combined with seven groups such as East Asia, Europe, The Americas, South Asia, Oceania, Middle East and Africa. Similarly, the international tourism market of India combined with nine countries: USA, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Japan, Malaysia, Australia and Sri Lanka. Moreover, three statistical tests for long-memory process such as R/S test, Modified R/S test and GPH-test are employed to study these markets. The empirical findings in general provide more support for long memory process in international tourism market of Thailand and evidence for short-term dependence in international tourism market of India. Therefore, the policy makers of each country should understand the behaviour of long memory process in international tourism market before launching any stimulating campaign to this industry.
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Analyzing soundness of nationalized banks in India: a camel approach
73-78Views:257Performance of the economy of any country is largely dependent on the performance of its banking sector. Since, banking sector constitutes a major component of the financial service sector. Soundness of the banking sector is essential for a healthy and vibrant economy. The efficiency, productivity, profitability, stability and a shock free economy is possible only when a country is having a sound and healthy banking sector. The present research work has been undertaken to analyze the soundness of five nationalized banks in India. In order to measure the performances of these banks CAMEL MODEL Approach has been applied, incorporating important parameters like Capital Adequacy, Assets Quality, Management Efficiency, Earnings Quality and Liquidity. The finding of the study shows that Bank of Baroda has been ranked at the top position, the Union Bank of India and Dena Bank secured the 2nd position, the next was the State Bank of India which secured the 4th position and in the last position was the UCO Bank which secured the 5th position.
JEL Code: G2, G12, G21, G32& G33.
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On tests for long-term dependence: India ’s international tourism market
109-113Views:136There have been growing interest in studying behavior of long memory process in tourism market. In this research examine the behavior of India’s international tourism market based on long-memory analysis. The international tourism market of India combined with nine countries: USA, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Japan, Malaysia, Australia and Sri Lanka. Moreover, three statistical tests for longmemory process such as R/S test, Modified R/S test and GPH-test are employed to test in these market. The empirical findings in general provide more support for no long memory process or no long-term dependence in international tourism market of India.
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Comparing the levels of expectation and satisfaction of Indian and foreign adventure tourists visiting India
5-13Views:445Purpose – The present study is undertaken to explore the difference between expectation and satisfaction level of Indian and foreign adventure tourists and the relationship between the levels of expectation and satisfaction of Indian and foreign adventure tourists.
Methodology – The data has been gathered from a sample of 300 adventure tourists comprising of 150 Indians and 150 foreigners. A principal component analysis with varimax rotation has identified 28 relevant items, which are broadly clustered into 6 significant factors. They are labeled as Aesthetic Appeal, Facilities, Accommodation, Information, Food and Safety and Security.
Findings – The findings of this study revealed significant differences between the levels of expectation and satisfaction of adventure tourists of Indian and foreign origin. The level of expectation among the Indian and foreign adventure tourist is higher and, comparatively, the level of satisfaction is lower. The level of expectation and the level of satisfaction of Indian adventure tourists are positively and significantly correlated with respect to variables such as Aesthetic Appeal, Facilities, Safety and Security and Accommodation. For the foreign adventure tourist, the level of expectation and level of satisfaction are positively and significantly correlated with respect to variables such as Information, Aesthetic Appeal, Facilities and Food.
Practical Implications – The research findings will help in the promotion of adventure tourism in India.
Originality/ Value – The identified factors can be used for similar kinds of studies at different destinations. The results of the study would be instrumental in developing strategies for ensuring more satisfied tourists. -
On tests for long-term dependence: India’s international tourism market
77-81Views:117There have been growing interest in studying behavior of long memory process in tourism market. In this research examine the behavior of India’s international tourism market based on long-memory analysis. The international tourism market of India combined with nine countries: USA, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Japan, Malaysia, Australia and Sri Lanka. Moreover, three statistical tests for longmemory process such as R/S test, Modified R/S test and GPH-test are employed to test in these market. The empirical findings in general provide more support for no long memory process or no long-term dependence in international tourism market of India.
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Methane reductions to moderate the global warming effects
59-64Views:167The case-study overviews the possible reduction for the methane gas emission in order to avoid of the more global warming effects and climate change caused by the human activity at latest decades. To collect international data base is for analysing and valuing methane gas emission based on the different country-groups, emphasizing responsibility of developing countries and highly developed countries for gas emission, also the methane emission based is on the economic sectors. China and India have share 8% of China and 2% of India respectively of cumulative CO2 emissions over the period 1900-2005, the US and the EU are responsible for more than half of emissions. Based on the estimation the global gas emissions of methane in the whole world has increased by 37% for period of 1990- 2030, as four decades, and this was 0,92% annual rate growth, while the OECD has increased the methane emission by 8,5% for this period, which means 0,21% growth rate annually. Scenario in developing countries for 2013-2020 the methane gas emission reduction could have been 8200 Mt of CO2e (Equivalent) and less than 10 US dollar per ton in more cost financing. Highly developed and developing economies (last one their methane emission share 56% in 1990, estimated 66,8% in 2030) increase their economic growth by mostly fossil energy resulted in increasing also methane gas emissions. The methane gas emission can be solved by those results-based-finance forms relevant to Kyoto Protocol, which can extend in the world by financial institutions.
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World importance and present tendencies of dairy sector
119-123Views:217The general objective of this paper is to present the world importance of dairy sector and to illustrate present tendency of milk production, consumption, trade and prices mainly based on FAO data base. World milk production was 711 million tonnes in 2010 and it is expected to increase in the future. The most significant milk producers are the EU(27), the United States and from the Asian countries, India and China. Developed countries give one-third of world milk production, while more than two-third of world dairy herd can be found in developing countries. Milk production growth is a future tendency mainly in China, India, Pakistan, Argentina and Brazil. The average level of consumption of milk and milk products is 103,6 kg/capita/year and it will increase in developing and developed countries as well. The ratio of international trade of milk and milk products to production is 6 percent and itmay expand in the future. New Zealand, the EU(27), theUnited States andAustralia are themajor exporters. There is a strong demand formilk andmilk products among others from the Asian countries, the Russian Federation,Algeria,Mexico, Saudi Arabia and the United States.Analysis of world market price of the most important dairy products it represents a strong recovery from last year, but it still remains 20 percent below its peak value in early 2008. However prices have doubled compared with prices of period of 2002–2004.
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Global tendencies in pork meat - production, trade and consumption
105-111Views:1817World meat production is anticipated to stagnate in 2016, rising by a mere 0.3% to 320.7 million tonnes. Increases in output are expected in the United States, Brazil, the EU, India and the Russian Federation, while reduced production is foreseen for China, Australia and South Africa. Global meat trade is forecast to recover in 2016, growing by 2.8% to 30.6 million tonnes, which would represent a return to trend, after a fall in 2015. World production of pig meat in 2016 is forecast to decrease marginally, by 0.7% to 116.4 million tonnes, thus registering a second year of virtual stagnation. As in 2015, lower output in China, which accounts for almost half the world total, is the main reason for the slowdown. An unfavourable feed-pork price ratio in the country and new environmental regulations have caused farmers to reduce breeding sows, stalling growth. China’s production is projected to be 54 million tonnes, down 2.5% from the previous year. Elsewhere in Asia, the Philippines and Vietnam could boost output. Also, production in Japan and the Republic of Korea may expand, as the industry recovers from outbreaks of PED, which reduced piglet numbers in the previous two years. Recovery from the effects of PED has been faster in the United States, where a second year of growth is anticipated, when production could increase by 1.9% to a record 11.3 million tonnes. Output in Mexico also continues to recover, following a PED outbreak in 2014, and may rise in 2016 by 2.0% to 1.3 million tonnes. Pork meat trade could experience a second year of growth, increasing by 4.4% to 7.5 million tonnes – a record level. Lower international prices have stimulated trade. Most of the principal importing countries are anticipated to increase their purchases, including Mexico, China, the Russian Federation, the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Australia. In response to rising demand, exports are projected to grow, in particular those of the United States, Canada, the EU and Brazil (FAO, 2016). Summarizing, in this study we wish to examine how evolve the world pork meat production, trade and consumption, and to demonstrate the main consuming countries, highlighting the role of China, as it is the most populated country in the world with its 1.4 billion inhabitants.
JEL Code: Q13, Q12
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Trends in agriculture and food production
99-110Views:146Agricultural reform resulted a shift from collective farming to small-scale production in China. This reform also has resulted a strong increase in gross agricultural output, which coincides with a slower increase in labour productivity. At the beginning of the reforms, agriculture accounted for 70 percent of total employment in China and still employs more than 50%. As a result of these reforms, China has undergone impressive economic growth also in the agriculture; the country has become one of the world’s top exporters and is attracting record amounts of foreign investment. The government has also stepped up investments in rural areas to meet the market demand for agricultural products. Results are very competitive compared to Central and Eastern European countries, where agriculture accounted for only 15 percent of total employment, but agricultural reform resulted a strong decline in gross agricultural output, which coincides with a similarly strong decline in employment. When approaching the issue of sustainable agriculture, we have to take into consideration, which China and India feed the largest populations in the world and both countries have had its own agricultural successes in the past 50 years. China has used land far more efficiently than many developed countries. With nine percent of the world’s arable land, China is responsible for the greatest share of agricultural production worldwide. Volume of produced pork, eggs, wheat, cotton, tobacco, and rice has increased and China exports an increasing amount of product each year. China has opened his borders, but do not expose food consumers to price shocks and producers to risks and disincentives. In this paper, the land-tenure system and the trends of agricultural developments are analysed in China and selected countries of EU.
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Hungarian endeavours for the enhancement of economic relations in Southeast Asia focusing on a new partnership with Vietnam
5-12Views:248Beyond a brief review of the economic integration process among the states of the ASEAN region, the authors of the present study aimed to examine and analyze the main economic, social and political characteristics of the Hungaro-ASEAN relations. The importance of the topic of this research is underlined by the fact that the Hungarian government considers big importance to the improvement of the foreign economic relations with Asian economies. This intention was expressed by a new foreign economic strategy „Eastern opening” announced by the government in 2012, even though the foreign trade statistical figures did not justify its success by now.The authors believe that increasing opening towards Asia serves Hungarian economic interests. Therefore, it is a right and desirable direction to proceed, they consider that in the background of the modest results there might be the insufficient knowledge of the market mechanisms, the actors of the local supply chains and the potential partners. They believe that in order to make the Hungarian foreign economic endeavours in this direction more successful a more thorough examination of the local characteristics – including the actual demand arising at the targeted markets - is necessary. This opinion is prevalent to not only the Asian „Giants”, like China, India and Japan, but also to smaller states, like the ASEAN members, which – together - in terms of population and economic performance – reach the dimensions of an economic great power as well.
Furthermore, the integration of the ten Southeast Asian countries develops rapidly, which is coupled by their increasing weight in the world trade. The dynamic economic and social development in the ASEAN region – and in parallel with this the growing demands and purchasing power - may encourage the Hungarian ventures in theory. However, there are still very few Hungarian entrepreneurs, who are ready to enter the market in the region and able in long run to operate there successfully. It is a well-known fact that the since the regime has changed in Hungary, foreign trade became strongly concentrated towards the EU members.
The ASEAN countries – because of the geographic distance and by other reasons - definitely cannot mean an alternative of the EU market, however in a certain extent they can relieve this one-sided concentration and may provide additional opportunities for the Hungarian export of goods, and rather to the export of Hungarian services and know-how. The ratio of the ASEAN region within the entire Hungarian foreign trade turnover is small nowadays, furthermore – according to the statistical figures – this region is rather an import resource for Hungary than being an export market. This fact – just itself – is should not be considered as problem. When the amount of the import exceeds the amount of exports, that means that it is more worthwhile to do business with suppliers from there countries than with others. By and large all this is prevalent to the field of the agricultural trade as well: Hungary imports a range of commodities which cannot be produced by domestic farmers or in Europe (spices, tropical fruits, etc.). It is obvious that the ASEAN region cannot be the major market for the Hungarian agricultural export, not even in long run. However, there are still a lot of opportunities to enlarge the turnover of goods and services and enhance the co-operation in this geographic region. In the last chapter, the authors outlined an example in case of Vietnam – co-operation of joint public warehousing of agricultural commodities – which may be a good example for the promising potential opportunities. In contrast with the majority of the ASEAN countries, the Hungaro-Vietnamese political and economic relations had started much earlier than the regime was changed in Hungary. However, the potential advantages arose from this fact – the network of connections and the sympathy of Vietnamese professionals graduated in Hungary, the reputation and popularity of Hungarian agricultural products and technologies, the achievements of R&D in the field of agriculture – could not be utilized from Hungarian side. Vietnam, however still preserved its socialist political establishment, but in terms of its economic development strategy and economic policy has gradually been standing on the basis of market orientation. Vietnam, with its population of ninety million shows a rapid and successful development and it means good opportunities even for Hungarian entrepreneurs. It would be a mistake to leave these potentials unused.JEL Classification: F14, Q17, R11, N75
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A structural equation model: Greece’s tourism demand for tourist destination
75-83Views:323Structural equation model (LISREL 8) was applied to test the causal relationships between tourist travel motivations and tourist destination.A survey containing Likert scale questions was conducted to collect data from 100 tourists who had travelled to Greece’s tourist destination. With the help of factor analysis, four dimensions were identified for scales used in the study: travel cost satisfaction, tourism product, tourism product attributes, and tourism product management. Results indicated that the travel cost satisfaction of tourists has a positive influence on tourism product, tourism product attributes and tourism product management. Moreover, our results suggested that the tourist demographics has a positive influence on tourism product and tourism product attributes and has an insignificant relationship with tourism product management. Based on our findings the tourist demographics has not influence on tourism product management. However, these findings suggest that both the private tourism and the governmental tourism sector should develop a better management of tourist destinations so as to develop a stronger attraction of tourism, better amenities, a better accessibility, an appropriate image, to make tourism competitive and to keep tourism product prices at a reasonable level. The implications of the tourism demand model can be used for the public environmental policy-making process based mainly on reasons of interest, ideology or understanding.
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A multi-dimensional ethical approach to accounting and reporting practices
13-26Views:147Purpose – The purpose of this research is to find out the multi-dimensional ethical approach to accounting and reporting practices going on in India and abroad. What has been the shift in Reporting Practices by Indian companies? What drives the Indian companies to report on the non-financial matters?
Design/methodology/approach – This paper mainly focuses on the inclusion of Non-Financial Matters in the Corporate Annual Reports. An Empirical Survey was carried out and the questionnaires were administered to 122 respondents comprising of 75 academicians and 47 chartered accountants. This paper compares the perceptions of academicians and accounting professionals on the ethical reporting practices of the Indian companies.
Findings – The results were tested using the t-test analysis. The research suggests that more companies should report on their environmental, social, and corporate governance performance and find a way to express them in their Annual Reports and the reporting of data regarding the carbon emissions, energy use, pollution, impact on the local economy, etc., should be made mandatory for companies.
Research limitations/implications – The research included respondents who are currently living in Delhi. For more generalized opinion nationwide survey can be carried out. Another important category of stakeholder for judging the usability of Corporate Annual Reports could be the Institutional Investors.
Practical implications – The results of this study would help the policy makers in framing the guidelines for standardized annual reports, synergizing social and business interest needs on top priority. Corporate philanthropy needs to transform into the realm of core business and corporate social responsibility. Integrated reporting could pave the way for synthesizing financial and non-financial reporting into one form and give a holistic view of companies’ strategies to its stakeholders incorporating new dimensions of IFRS.
Social implications – More emphasis on Non-financial matters will certainly contribute in making the corporates more responsible to the society, environment, and to the future generations.
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