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An application of the error correction model in analyzing the long run equilibrium between Ghana’s exports and imports
57-62Views:138This study investigates the long-run relationship between Ghana’s exports and imports for the period of 1948 to 2012. Using the Engle Granger two-step procedure we find that Ghana’s exports and imports are cointegrated. However, the slope coefficients from the cointegration equations were not statistically equal to 1. Furthermore, application of the error correction model reveals that 1% increase in the imports will significantly result in 0.56% increase in exports, suggesting that the exports’ responsiveness to imports is low. The estimated error correction coefficient suggests that 32% of the deviation from the long run equilibrium relation is eliminated, leaving 68% to persist into the next period. These results suggest persistence in the trade deficit and an option of curbing the deficit is to re-order the relationship between imports and exports with a view to reducing imports demand. These results imply that though Ghana’s past macroeconomic policies have been effective in bringing its imports and exports into a long run equilibrium, it is yet to satisfy the sufficient condition for sustainability of foreign deficit.
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Analysis of the chain of the banana industry of Ecuador and the European market
57-65Views:1078Bananas are among the four main crops in the world, including wheat, rice, and corn. It is the most exported fresh fruit in the world in terms of volume and value. The European Union (EU) is the largest banana importer globally with an estimated volume share of 33%. Ecuador is the top exporter since it is responsible for one-quarter of the world banana exportation. It represents 22% of total world exports, 27% of total agricultural exports in the country and 8% of the value of all exports (including oil). The present work analyzed the chain of the banana industry of Ecuador and its position in the EU market. A non-experimental empirical method with a quantitative and qualitative approach was used supported by scholarly literature and secondary research data collection. Results obtained show that the main countries destination shipped 87.8 % of total bananas exported from Ecuador in the period of 2007 – 2017. The largest importer of Ecuadorian banana is the European Union (28.9%). In Ecuador, approximately 78% of the banana producers are small companies, by adding the medium ones 95.6% is reached. Thus, the production of bananas in the country is mainly based on the family economy. In 2019, the official banana box price for producers in Ecuador is USD 6.30. In the EU market, it can reach over USD 18.00. It suggested an unfair payment to small and medium producers.
JEL CODE: Q13, M16, M21
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Comparing parametric and semiparametric error correction models for estimation of long run equilibrium between exports and imports
19-23Views:167This paper introduces the semiparametric error correction model for estimation of export-import relationship as an alternative to the least squares approach. The intent is to demonstrate how semiparametric error correction model can be used to estimate the relationship between Ghana’s export and import within the context of a generalized additive modelling (GAM) framework. The semiparametric results are compared to common parametric specification using the ordinary least squares regression. The results from the semiparametric and parametric error correction models (ECM) indicate that the error correction term and import variable are significant determinants of Ghana’s exports. On the basis of Akaike Information Criteria and Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) scores, it is found that the semiparametric error correction model provides a better fit than the widely used parametric error correction model for modeling Ghana’s export-import relationship. The results of the analysis of variance provide further evidence of nonlinearity in Ghana’s export and import relationship. In effect, this paper demonstrates the usefulness of semiparametric error correction model in the estimation of export – import relationship.
JEL code: C14, C18, C22, F10, F14
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Croatian wine market, support policy and specific obstacles to wine exports
19-22Views:167In this paper, analysis of Croatian wine sector in period 2006-2013 is conducted through the record of wine production, exports and imports together with Government support measures. In the light of Croatian EU membership together with opening of EU wine market and global wine market, recommendations for further discussion of support measures for small and medium winemakers are given.
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Clasters and Correlations among the Eu Member States Regarding Agri-Food Foreign Trade
55-63Views:168The European Union has a significant role in international trade but this is largely in the area of industrial goods. However, in the case of some agricultural commodities the EU applies tariffs, bans, or different restrictive measures; it manages foreign trade in agricultural goods with many countries all over the world. On the other hand the member states do not contribute to the total trade of the EU to the same extent. In this study, a comparative analysis was performed in relation to the member states by means of data of Eurostat and Faostat. First, a multivariable correlation analysis was carried out in order to find the interrelation between the trade features of each country. In the second part of the study, a cluster analysis was carried out with almost the same component as in the foregoing, also in terms of the EU member states. It can be ascertained that the date of EU accession of a Member State as well as getting EU agricultural subsidies do not affect the agricultural foreign trade of the member states. Countries with significant agricultural production also export food commodities in larger quantities. Countries that have significant exports extra-EU also have larger imports in the case of both basic commodities and prepared food as well. As a result of the cluster analysis, it can be stated that the member states can be divided into specific groups according to the three examined aspects (food trade features, exports of commodities, imports of commodities). The following typical country groups can be divided as follows: non-trade countries, countries with larger trade extra-EU, agri-food exporter and importer countries, non-agri-food exporter and importer countries, primary commodity exporters and importers, and last but not least processed food exporters and importers as well.
JEL Classification: F10
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Impacts of the global financial and economic crisis on the agro-food industry and rural livelihoods in Serbia
113-118Views:145Sixty-five per cent of the Serbian land area is agricultural and 55% of the population is rural.Agriculture share of GDP is more than 10% and about 47% of the rural labour force deals with agriculture. The aim of this work is to analyse the impacts of the global financial and economic crisis on the Serbian agro-food sector and rural communities. Measures introduced, mainly by public institutions, for relieving the consequences of the crisis are presented and discussed. Easily accessible yet high quality data from the central Office of Statistics in Serbia and specialized literature have been used. Impacts have been assessed by analyzing and discussing the trends of many socio-economic indicators. The crisis has had general impacts on the Serbian economy (low GDP growth, unemployment increase, price volatility, purchasing power decrease, etc.). Due to the crisis growth in agricultural production has been very low (0.1% in 2009). Agro-food exports decreased dramatically in 2008. About 9000 agricultural jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009. Reduced exports and lower domestic demand impacted negatively on agricultural commodity prices and agricultural household incomes.Access to credit became more difficult especially for small producers. However, agriculture is still a very important safety net. Agricultural employment share has increased both for men and women. The importance of agriculture is even higher if we consider the “grey agricultural economy”. To mitigate the crisis effects, the Government provided subsidies to rural people and will adopt the National Strategic Plan and Programme for Rural Development. Nevertheless, public institutions - in partnership with private, civil society and international organisations - should improve rural producers’ access to market information and credits and foster investments in rural areas including non-agricultural ones and those aiming at improving physical capital.
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Impacts and externalities of agricultural modernization in Brazilian states
53-61Views:178This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the levels of agricultural modernization and socioeconomic indicators of the Brazilian federation units. A multivariate approach to data analysis led to the creation of the Index of Agricultural Modernization (IAM). The Spearman correlation test was used to verify the relationship between levels of agricultural modernization and a set of economic and social indicators. As a result of the survey, we obtained the Index of Agricultural Modernization (IAM) which allowed the ranking of Brazilian states in terms of level of modernization. The correlation analysis demonstrated the existence of significant and positive correlation between the agricultural modernization and the following indicators: per capita GDP, trade balance per capita and IFDM. This means that agricultural modernization contributes to increased production, exports and the levels of socioeconomic development of the states. For the variable urbanization rate, test results showed a negative correlation with the IAM, which suggests a contribution of agricultural modernization for fixing people in the countryside. Indicators of inequality in income distribution showed no significant correlation. In conclusion, it can be inferred that the positive relationship of the IAM with indicators of production, exports and socioeconomic development shows the presence of positive externalities and impacts of the agricultural modernization process
for the Brazilian states. -
Poultry sector analysis in Albania
Views:313Meat production, in specific poultry meat is a very important product for protein and nutrition values for many consumers. With the urbanization of the population people’s diet is shifting towards meat overall, including processed poultry. This has increased the challenges of quality and control over the meat products. (RAIHAN AND MAHMUD, 2018) In general, poultry remains a problematic sector in Albania, with the most common issue being the quality and not the European Union standards and regulations. This paper analysis the egg and poultry products livestock and productions, importing and exporting trends on poultry products, and the potential of development of this sector in the single market of European Union by improving the sector. This study gives an overview in poultry subsector related to livestock and production, international trades, and their market trends. It highlights the supply chain in poultry that can be helpful for poultry businesses and government. It also provides valuable information regarding the impact of quality issues in international market, also the structure of the market for poultry is conducted. Also, the imports and exports on poultry subsector trends and comparison was conducted. The study also consisted of calculations of index number CPI, which indicates the changes in consumer purchasing power.
JEL code: D1
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Analysis of household crop commercialization in Nigeria
Views:307Nigeria is experiencing a gradual shift from subsistence to commercialized agriculture, thereby increasing involvement and activities at different nodes of agribusiness. Participation of farmers in markets is an important determinant of well-being and development, and one of the pathways towards economic growth. This study analysed household crop commercialization in Nigeria. The secondary data used were the General Household Survey (GHS, 2018) Wave 4. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, household crop commercialization index (HCCI) and ordered probit regression model.
Mean age of Nigerian farmers was 50.04 years (±15.22), majority (85.68%) were male, married (82.51%), and 72.14% had formal education. Farming is viable in all the geopolitical zones and majority (87.64%) of the farmers were from the rural sector, holding a mean total plot size of 12.61(±15.63) hectares, and planted 3 crops on the average. The most produced crop categories are cereals (46.75%), tubers (20.70%) and legumes (19.00%); legumes and cereals are highest in the North, and tubers in the South. Subsistence households were 32.81% (HCCI=0), only 1.71% of the households were fully commercial (HCCI=100), while semi-subsistence households (0≤HCCI≤100) constitute 65.48%. Years of education (p<0.05) and crop production in North East and North West zones (p<0.01) constrain commercialization, while at p<0.01, crop production in the rural sector and the South zones, and increased land holding are the drivers of household crop commercialization in Nigeria.
Nigerian farming households are mainly semi-subsistence and are diversified in crop production. Nigeria relies more on market participation of the semi-subsistence households, through their marketable surplus, to feed her teeming population and for exports. Further attention on rural infrastructure development in all geopolitical zones and awareness creation on producing market oriented products will increase agribusiness activities. This will generate green decent jobs that will take unemployed youths off the streets of urban centres. This is in tune with the economy diversification bid and the new Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan of the Federal Government of Nigeria.
JEL CODE – Q13
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Hungarian endeavours for the enhancement of economic relations in Southeast Asia focusing on a new partnership with Vietnam
5-12Views:250Beyond a brief review of the economic integration process among the states of the ASEAN region, the authors of the present study aimed to examine and analyze the main economic, social and political characteristics of the Hungaro-ASEAN relations. The importance of the topic of this research is underlined by the fact that the Hungarian government considers big importance to the improvement of the foreign economic relations with Asian economies. This intention was expressed by a new foreign economic strategy „Eastern opening” announced by the government in 2012, even though the foreign trade statistical figures did not justify its success by now.The authors believe that increasing opening towards Asia serves Hungarian economic interests. Therefore, it is a right and desirable direction to proceed, they consider that in the background of the modest results there might be the insufficient knowledge of the market mechanisms, the actors of the local supply chains and the potential partners. They believe that in order to make the Hungarian foreign economic endeavours in this direction more successful a more thorough examination of the local characteristics – including the actual demand arising at the targeted markets - is necessary. This opinion is prevalent to not only the Asian „Giants”, like China, India and Japan, but also to smaller states, like the ASEAN members, which – together - in terms of population and economic performance – reach the dimensions of an economic great power as well.
Furthermore, the integration of the ten Southeast Asian countries develops rapidly, which is coupled by their increasing weight in the world trade. The dynamic economic and social development in the ASEAN region – and in parallel with this the growing demands and purchasing power - may encourage the Hungarian ventures in theory. However, there are still very few Hungarian entrepreneurs, who are ready to enter the market in the region and able in long run to operate there successfully. It is a well-known fact that the since the regime has changed in Hungary, foreign trade became strongly concentrated towards the EU members.
The ASEAN countries – because of the geographic distance and by other reasons - definitely cannot mean an alternative of the EU market, however in a certain extent they can relieve this one-sided concentration and may provide additional opportunities for the Hungarian export of goods, and rather to the export of Hungarian services and know-how. The ratio of the ASEAN region within the entire Hungarian foreign trade turnover is small nowadays, furthermore – according to the statistical figures – this region is rather an import resource for Hungary than being an export market. This fact – just itself – is should not be considered as problem. When the amount of the import exceeds the amount of exports, that means that it is more worthwhile to do business with suppliers from there countries than with others. By and large all this is prevalent to the field of the agricultural trade as well: Hungary imports a range of commodities which cannot be produced by domestic farmers or in Europe (spices, tropical fruits, etc.). It is obvious that the ASEAN region cannot be the major market for the Hungarian agricultural export, not even in long run. However, there are still a lot of opportunities to enlarge the turnover of goods and services and enhance the co-operation in this geographic region. In the last chapter, the authors outlined an example in case of Vietnam – co-operation of joint public warehousing of agricultural commodities – which may be a good example for the promising potential opportunities. In contrast with the majority of the ASEAN countries, the Hungaro-Vietnamese political and economic relations had started much earlier than the regime was changed in Hungary. However, the potential advantages arose from this fact – the network of connections and the sympathy of Vietnamese professionals graduated in Hungary, the reputation and popularity of Hungarian agricultural products and technologies, the achievements of R&D in the field of agriculture – could not be utilized from Hungarian side. Vietnam, however still preserved its socialist political establishment, but in terms of its economic development strategy and economic policy has gradually been standing on the basis of market orientation. Vietnam, with its population of ninety million shows a rapid and successful development and it means good opportunities even for Hungarian entrepreneurs. It would be a mistake to leave these potentials unused.JEL Classification: F14, Q17, R11, N75
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Free Trade Agreement: Impacts on the Costa Rican Dairy Market
83-90Views:191According to the Free Trade Agreement with Central America, Dominican Republic and United States signed in 2008, milk import tariff reliefs will stagger down from 59,4% to 0% by 2025. This study determined milk demand and supply curves in the Costa Rican domestic market. Several variables and two different models were conducted to estimate milk demand and supply: Ordinary Least Squares and Two Stages Least Square simultaneous equations. In both cases, demand was estimated by income and milk prices as independent variables; while supply was estimated by input and milk prices. Nonetheless, the best fit was obtained by TSLS model because it accounts for endogeneity among price and quantity. Based on this model, if domestic prices are supposed to decrease due to increasing quantities of imported lower-priced milk, then national demand would increase (9% average) and national production is expected to decrease (26% average). The gap between national milk demand and supply is expected to be filled by milk imported from United States; assuming 0% tariff, no transaction costs and constant share of exports within national production.
JEL Classification: F1, Q17
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How economic recession effect the corporate philanthropy? Evidence from Pakistani corporate sector
89-95Views:182Corporate philanthropy is a significant indicator of firm’s socially responsible behavior. Researchers and managers acknowledge the immense potential of corporate philanthropy for optimizing social and economic benefits. Aligned with this view corporate sector in Pakistan is engaged in philanthropic initiatives in some form or another. This paper aims to present the response of the Pakistani corporate sector to the corporate philanthropy at the time of global economic recession 2008-2009 by analyzing the sample of Public Listed Companies (PLCs). The analysis revealed that during the global financial crisis, the economic condition of Pakistan was worsened that was already in distress, but it hasn’t strongly effected the corporate philanthropy as the data shows a slight decrease in the overall volume of corporate donations in 2007 and a slight decrease in the number of companies engaged in philanthropy during 2008. The finding of the study suggests that during the global economic downturn the PLCs in Pakistan continued to show commitment towards community through corporate donations.
JEL code: B22
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Trends in agriculture and food production
99-110Views:146Agricultural reform resulted a shift from collective farming to small-scale production in China. This reform also has resulted a strong increase in gross agricultural output, which coincides with a slower increase in labour productivity. At the beginning of the reforms, agriculture accounted for 70 percent of total employment in China and still employs more than 50%. As a result of these reforms, China has undergone impressive economic growth also in the agriculture; the country has become one of the world’s top exporters and is attracting record amounts of foreign investment. The government has also stepped up investments in rural areas to meet the market demand for agricultural products. Results are very competitive compared to Central and Eastern European countries, where agriculture accounted for only 15 percent of total employment, but agricultural reform resulted a strong decline in gross agricultural output, which coincides with a similarly strong decline in employment. When approaching the issue of sustainable agriculture, we have to take into consideration, which China and India feed the largest populations in the world and both countries have had its own agricultural successes in the past 50 years. China has used land far more efficiently than many developed countries. With nine percent of the world’s arable land, China is responsible for the greatest share of agricultural production worldwide. Volume of produced pork, eggs, wheat, cotton, tobacco, and rice has increased and China exports an increasing amount of product each year. China has opened his borders, but do not expose food consumers to price shocks and producers to risks and disincentives. In this paper, the land-tenure system and the trends of agricultural developments are analysed in China and selected countries of EU.
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Global tendencies in pork meat - production, trade and consumption
105-111Views:1818World meat production is anticipated to stagnate in 2016, rising by a mere 0.3% to 320.7 million tonnes. Increases in output are expected in the United States, Brazil, the EU, India and the Russian Federation, while reduced production is foreseen for China, Australia and South Africa. Global meat trade is forecast to recover in 2016, growing by 2.8% to 30.6 million tonnes, which would represent a return to trend, after a fall in 2015. World production of pig meat in 2016 is forecast to decrease marginally, by 0.7% to 116.4 million tonnes, thus registering a second year of virtual stagnation. As in 2015, lower output in China, which accounts for almost half the world total, is the main reason for the slowdown. An unfavourable feed-pork price ratio in the country and new environmental regulations have caused farmers to reduce breeding sows, stalling growth. China’s production is projected to be 54 million tonnes, down 2.5% from the previous year. Elsewhere in Asia, the Philippines and Vietnam could boost output. Also, production in Japan and the Republic of Korea may expand, as the industry recovers from outbreaks of PED, which reduced piglet numbers in the previous two years. Recovery from the effects of PED has been faster in the United States, where a second year of growth is anticipated, when production could increase by 1.9% to a record 11.3 million tonnes. Output in Mexico also continues to recover, following a PED outbreak in 2014, and may rise in 2016 by 2.0% to 1.3 million tonnes. Pork meat trade could experience a second year of growth, increasing by 4.4% to 7.5 million tonnes – a record level. Lower international prices have stimulated trade. Most of the principal importing countries are anticipated to increase their purchases, including Mexico, China, the Russian Federation, the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Australia. In response to rising demand, exports are projected to grow, in particular those of the United States, Canada, the EU and Brazil (FAO, 2016). Summarizing, in this study we wish to examine how evolve the world pork meat production, trade and consumption, and to demonstrate the main consuming countries, highlighting the role of China, as it is the most populated country in the world with its 1.4 billion inhabitants.
JEL Code: Q13, Q12
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Competetiveness of the Montenegrin fruit and vegetables sector and recommendtations for impovement
69-75Views:95A number of facts, primarily including high fragmentation at all levels, weak vertical integration, limited dimensions in comparison to competitors poor technological level and unbalanced quality/price ratio make the sector weak, low competitive and exposed to international competition, reducing its capacity to capture any existing market potential. Almost all opportunities are frozen by prevailing weaknesses and threat impacts are exacerbated by a largely prevailing number of weaknesses. High production unit cost appears to be a major constraint to local supply market competitiveness. This situation appears to be mainly caused by general low levels of productivity – provoked by not adequate and up-to-date cultivation practices, reduced levels of input use, utilisation of old and, therefore, less performing varieties, and also farm management shortcomings. High losses from reduced availability of post-harvest facilities and equipment add up to the problem. The improvement of the sector is not easy. In other words, there is a lot to do for the Montenegrin sector operators to increase sales: tackle imports and increase market shares in the domestic market and abroad. Based on our research, we suggest that the Montenegrin fruit and vegetable sector should primarily aim at substituting imports, increasing domestic consumption and developing exports to the region (CEFTA countries) primarily via promising market opportunities. Based on our analyses of the state of affairs of the sector, the competitiveness and the market potentials, the recommendations for improvement competitiveness are outlined.
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TREND ANALYSIS OF UGANDA’S COFFEE SECTOR
Views:395Coffee (Coffea arabica and C. canephora) is an important commercial crop globally, and the second most traded global commodity by developing nations after oil. Uganda is among the top 10 coffee exporters worldwide, and second in Africa. The total export amounted to 301,366 tons of “green” coffee in 2021, forming the second-largest commodity export, and contributing about 12.4% to Uganda’s total formal exports. However, the country’s overall performance over time remains unclear given the fluctuations in production and export prices. This study aimed to evaluate the production and export trends of Uganda’s coffee sector by: (i) defining the overall direction of coffee production and export value, (ii) assessing the market variability, and (iii) evaluating the global cross-cutting issues regarding coffee production and export. Data was extracted from FAOSTAT and Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) databases. Trends were analysed using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test, while market variability was analyzed using the fixed base index (FBI) and coefficient of variation. VOSviewer software was used to analyze literature from the Web of Science database to highlight cross-cutting issues. Results indicated a significant positive increase in coffee production and export value (p = 0.0001, Slope = 1736.67 tons and p = 0.001, Slope = 4.44 million USD) respectively. Among the top ten coffee producers, Uganda presented the third worst unstable coffee export value with a 20.1% coefficient of variation. Fairtrade, climate change, and certification were the most outstanding global cross-cutting issues. Market stabilization mechanisms should be developed through value addition by establishing coffee processing and roasting plants, as well as strategic governance and policy support to counter emerging global challenges such as climate change.
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Agricultural Trade Policy: ‘America First’?
89-93Views:183There has been a growing openness and importance in trade over time as indicated by an increasing ratio of trade to gross domestic product for the World. However, some recent movements have been more protectionist and less open to trade. The potential impacts of less trade are explored with the United States (US) taken as an example. Trade agreements have been important in increasing trade by the US, particularly for US agriculture which has had a trade surplus since 1959. Countries should benefit from trade according to economic theory. However, stances taken by the US administration during the first half of 2017 have resulted in the withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Partnership Agreement and an announced renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. With falling US farm income, the potential undoing of trade agreement benefits, and possible trade retaliations, US agriculture is concerned about any potential disruption in exports and losses from less trade. In addition, US consumers and importers of US agriculture should be concerned about a potential decrease in trade.
JEL Code: Q18
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Economic issues of duck production: A case study from Hungary
61-67Views:167The Hungarian waterfowl sector is characterised by export orientation, as 55-57% of the revenue comes from exports, so its importance is high in the national economy. The production of slaughter animals in the duck sector has doubled in the last decade. The objective of the study is to examine production parameters, as well as the cost and profit situation of broiler duck production and to reveal the correlations between the factors with a case study through the example of a Hungarian company. The production parameters and cost data of the investigated farm (2014-2016, 96 production cycles) were analysed using descriptive statistical methods, correlation and regression analysis. The results show that the average cost of the duck produced in intensive, closed farming system was between 72.6 and 101.7 eurocent kg-1. The most significant cost items were feed (52-63%) and chicken cost (14-19%). The sales price decreased from 112.9 eurocent kg-1 to 98.4 eurocent kg-1 during the examined period, resulting in a profit from -3.3 to 25.7 eurocent kg-1, and overall profitability was decreasing. The study also revealed that there was no correlation between average cost and final bodyweight, while the correlation between average cost and reared period was weak. At the same time, the relationship between average cost and average daily weight gain, mortality, feed conversion ratio was moderate. In addition, the European Production Efficiency Factor (EPEF) can be adapted to the duck sector as strong, positive relationship can be scientifically verified between the indicator and average cost. There is a close correlation between the sold live weight per m2 and the amount of feed used per m2, as well as between the final bodyweight and the amount of feed used to rear a duck, while the correlation between average cost and the sold live weight per m2 is weak.
JEL Code: Q13, Q19
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