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Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA: International tourist arrivals to India and Thailand
43-61Views:197Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment and this method was developed by the Census Bureau in the United States. It has been continually improved since the 1960s, and it is used by many statistics agencies and central banks. The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to India for 2007-2010 and also these data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010. From these period the results confirm that the best forecasting method based on the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1), X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for India and the best forecasting method based on this method is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for Thailand. Furthermore this method predict that international tourism arrivals to India for 2007–2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to India will be 5,079,651 million, 5,652,180 million, 6,224,480 million and 6,796,890 million, respectively. Also this method predict that international tourism arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to Thailand will be 12,211,033 million, 12,699,532 million, 13,187,591 million, 13,674,669 million and 14,161,998 million, respectively. If these results can be generalized for future year, then it suggests that both the India government sector and the Thailand government sector also the private tourism industry sector of these country should prepare to receive increasing numbers of international tourist arrivals both to India and Thailand in this period.
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The importance of logic planning in case of IT and innovation projects
15-20Views:175In case of using methodology of project planning, in the first step we had to create a “good” logic network. We had to determine the successors and predecessors of the tasks. However, usually successors and predecessors proceed from the technology, sometimes (especially in case of IT and innovation projects) these relations between tasks are not explicit. In case of projects, especially IT and innovation projects, one of the most critical points of view is the phase of logic planning. However, it is a very important phase, only slightly supported by any kind of Project Management tools. Our goal was to support the logic planning phase. In our paper a new planning method, namely SNPM (Stochastic Network Planning Method) is introduced through some practical applications. SNPM can determine all feasible solutions with the help of stochastic variables and can also take into consideration all possible precedents. The parameters of logic relations can be changed if the impacts on the project change. With this method the most probable project scenario can be determined taking into account costs and resource demands.
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Automated valuation model for livestock appraisal in loaning practice
37-42Views:114Actualization of loan security (mortgage) value is of major importance in Hungarian loaning practice. Due to the recession in economics, the value of agricultural portfolio of banks has decreased a great deal, though not to such a great extent as other branches of the economy. Depreciation of estate stock is compensated with additional collateral security. Besides other stock, often temporarily and out of necessity, livestock is presented as additional collateral security. From the loaners’ point of view, however, the registered inventory value does not guarantee security. The authors have set up an appraisal method giving professional guidance through automated valuation as to how dairy stock can be used as mortgage for loan security. Hereby we are to present the details of both the theory and the methodology of a model that is appropriate for the valuation of dairy livestock on an MS Excel basis. Thus, the process is fast and has more prospects for all parties in the loaning or leasing business. The method involves the features of livestock technology, the expected realized profit, and breed stock value. By the implementation of this method, the loaners can calculate the value of loan recovery (loan to value) with acceptable security.
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An investigation on the international tourists’ expenditures in Thailand: a modelling approach
15-18Views:143As a result of the increase in both the international tourists’ expenditures and tourist arrivals to Thailand, there is a growing interest in determining the trend of international tourists’ expenditures based on time-series modelling. In our article secondary data were used to produce forecasts of the international tourists’ expenditures in Thailand between 2009 and 2010. The forecasting method is based on the ARFIMAX (0, 0.197, 0, 0.033) model. Furthermore, this method predicted that international tourists’ expenditures in Thailand between 2009 and 2010 will have to contract and slow down. This paper seeks to determine whether the international tourists’ expenditures are affected by other circumstances. The results of this study revealed that the international tourist arrivals to Thailand will also have to slow down. However, from the results, there is solid evidence to support such a claim.
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Innovative training methods in business higher education
75-78Views:186A unique business-oriented educational method was launched in 2010 at the University Of Debrecen, Hungary, in the Faculty Of Applied Economics and Rural Development; the method has existed in the JAMK University of Applied Science in Jyväskylä (Finland) since 1993, and is called Team Academy. The gist of this training is that the students learn entrepreneurship through their ‘living’ organisations with the application of the principle ‘learning-by-doing’. Besides developing the students’ entrepreneurial competencies and skills, this educational model also offers team coaching tools to develop teams of 12-13 students that can cooperate in an efficient way. The key point of Team Academy, which has been launched in several European higher education institutes over the past years (e.g. Spain, France, the Netherlands, etc.), is that the most efficient way of learning how to operate a successful company is to learn it in practice. During the professional and project trainings, the cooperation of the team and their company’s efficiency is continuously developing with the help of team coaches. A quite wide variety of team coaching tools is used in this system, e.g. 360◦ evaluation, which is a very important tool of human resource management. Feedback from students also plays an important role in developing team cooperation; the professional frame for this is also given by the above-mentioned methodology. This method is used successfully at the Debrecen Team Academy which / and (do you mean that the a) Team Academy or b) the above-mentioned methodology will be presented? If B), then write ‘and’ instead of ‘which’) will be presented in this study. A database of 150 questionnaires is analysed through qualitative research methods.
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Correction method on fairs’ attraction radius
37-41Views:153At auditing a fair the measure and evaluation of the exhibitors’ distance is a important task and can be used for further promotion of the fair. In analyzing the attraction radius of different fairs one can discover some figures that may raise questions regarding a simple averaging of the attraction distances. According to the research of the author, the bias in the attraction radius can be caused by to factors: the size of the attraction region and the distance from the region’s business center. Authors explored the bias factors and suggest a correction method to remedy it. A theoretical correction model was applied to evaluate three agribusiness fairs. It is established that the corrected attraction radius gives more realistic result than the simple averaging of exhibitors’ distance.
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Assessment of women farmers’ credit needs in imbulpe ds division in Sri Lanka
Views:225The study was conducted to identify the role of women farmers’ credit needs, using Imbulpe (Divisional Secretariat) DS Division in Sri Lanka. As the sample size of study 238 women farmers were selected from seven selected (Grama Niladhari) GN divisions of the study area. This study was conducted to identify the areas and level of credit needed by women farmers. And also, the agricultural credit sources of was identified. Women farmers were selected by using the simple random sampling method. Questionnaire Survey was used as the data collection method from March to July 2019. Descriptive statistics was used for the data analyzing process and the result showed that, 59.7 % of the women farmers were observed within the middle ages (40-59 years), most of them were married, and 4-5 members within their family. 64.3 % of women farmers were studied up to secondary level education. Majority of the women farmers were noted that they need credit facilities for the application of agrochemicals and fertilizers. In Addition to that, utilization of modern farming technologies, transportation & marketing of agricultural products and purchasing improved seeds & livestock related credit neediness most important for them. And also, they were showed a less interest regarding the credit neediness for pre-planting activities, irrigation facilities and harvesting activities. Most of the respondents were indicated high level of credit neediness for the application of agrochemicals and fertilizers and utilization of modern farming technologies while moderate and low level of agricultural credit neediness regarding the pre-planting activities, irrigation facilities and harvesting activities within the study area. Majority of the respondents were showed savings from the previous agricultural earnings and other family member or fellow women as their major credit sources of agricultural activities. Private money lenders act as the least important credit source for agricultural activities in the study area.
JEL CODE: Q1, Q12 -
The PLACE OF AMORTIZATION AMONG COSTS, AS WELL AS EFFECT OF DIFFERENT DEPRECATION CALCULATION METHODS ON MANAGEMENT FROM BUSINESS ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL VIEW OF POINT.
Views:182In our article, we try to present the place of amortization (depreciation) among costs, based on several aspects. After that, we will present the different description methods based on their characteristics, giving priority to what their use means for the entrepreneur. We support this with the help of model calculations. We present what mean the amortization accounting methods assuming that management is without inflation or between inflationary conditions. Based on this, we try to formulate proposals on how state intervention how could help businesses in inflationary economic conditions beyond that it would be more permissive in the choice of description method. Following the business economics approach to the question, we will examine the effect of amortization on tax base and the income, taking into consideration financial and accounting aspects. Considering that the use of the fixed assets and thus the expected return period takes several years, we must attention to the careful planning of the amount of replacement costs. When determining the required capital value, we cannot ignore the time factor, the time value of money. The required value of capital accumulation supplementing amortization per period is determined using the annuity method.
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Knowledge and acceptance research of use of vine-branch in micro region of Gyöngyös
117-119Views:142Significant quantity of renewable plant biomass comes into existence in Hungary year by year. Nowadays there are different wellknow possibilities for utilization. However these methods are not widely accepted. The most important obstacle is frequently caused by lack of knowledge of farmers. Without the necessary information the farmers become distrustful, and in many cases significantly decrease the efficiency of reclamation. Targeted communication method should be used to improve the rates of utilization. It should include appropriate content to their knowledge. This study research the knowledge and the acceptance of vine-branch utilization circle of wine-grower in micro region of Gyöngyös by questionnaire survey. We will know why the use of by-products has not spreaded yet circle of wine-grower and where they get their information from. The typically fragmented farms do not utilize because they do not know the process for doing or other people cultivate their vine-yard so they have not necessary machine. The questionnaire ask the farmers they want to offer their vine-branch a user factory.The questionnaires was completed by personal request. The reason of methods was the bigger rate of query. The questionnaire include question about the farm, the use of vinebranch and data of farmers. The villages were asked the rates of wine-grower. The aim of the research the rational utilize of by-product by wine-growers year by year. With the results of questionnaire survey we can inform the farmers with the appropriate method about the necessary knowledge.
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The use of models in optimizing the field crop production in agricultural enterprise
105-108Views:126The full use of resource capacities of agricultural enterprises favorably affects the general increase in economic efficiency and rational production making them more competitive in the market. This creates the need for constant improvement of business strategies that uses all available resources to create the most profitable production. The main objective of this study was to find the ideal structure of production in agricultural enterprise and to enable the realization of maximum profit using the available production resources (land, mechanization, labor forces). As the basic method of planning, this study used the simplex method of linear programming which gives the most profitable sowing structure after detailed analysis of resources and achieved results, based on the limitations and gross margin. This work showed that the use of modern methods in production planning is one of the cheapest and safest methods for development of agricultural enterprises.
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Determining fair rental value of land in the Hungarian valuation practice – a methodological approach
13-18Views:200The directive of 1666/2015. (IX. 21.) called ’Land for Farmers!’ has changed not only the legal terms and conditions but also the economic basis of land use in the relation of land use and resulting derivative demand. Institutionalized rental fees can be modified to market level only if it is confirmed by qualified expert’s report hired by the new land owner. Setting a fair rental value has quite a few methodological approaches. Due to the lack of a legally recommended calculation process, authors hereby are presenting a method to calculate fair rental value that is beneficial for both renter and owner. Foreign rental conditions related to the topic are also concerned in the article.
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The use of models in optimizing the field crop production in agricultural enterprise - MBA thesis
93-96Views:191The full use of resource capacities of agricultural enterprises favorably affects the general increase in economic efficiency and rational production making them more competitive in the market. This creates the need for constant improvement of business strategies that uses all available resources to create the most profitable production. The main objective of this study was to find the ideal structure of production in agricultural enterprise and to enable the realization of maximum profit using the available production resources (land, mechanization, labor forces). As the basic method of planning, this study used the simplex method of linear programming which gives the most profitable sowing structure after detailed analysis of resources and achieved results, based on the limitations and gross margin. This work showed that the use of modern methods in production planning is one of the cheapest and safest methods for development of agricultural enterprises.
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Risks and competitiveness in agriculture with emphasis on wine sector in Croatia
11-17Views:145International competitiveness, being a key objective of each economic entity, is at the same time significantly determined by the level of risk the entity is coping. Based on the assumption that risk management is directly linked to competitiveness in agribusiness, the scope of this paper is predominantly focused on the wine agribusiness in Croatia. The aim of this paper is to encompass available literature and transfer findings to interested parties, about risks and competitiveness in agriculture, with particular reference to the wine sector. Qualitative analysis of secondary data, descriptive i.e. monographic method, deductive method and comparison of available papers from the world and Croatia were applied in the paper. There are very few companies in general, however, that tend to use their abilities to manage risks as a source of competitive advantage. These companies go beyond compliance or cost-controlling defensive approaches and take a more aggressive stance toward risk. They have realized that their risk management capabilities can be leveraged as a source of competitive advantage (Elahi, 2013). Current literature showed that such companies indirectly exist within global agribusiness. Examples of such companies in the wine sector could be found in Old World and New World wine countries. In regards with the mentioned, further research in the wine sector that would more directly link competitiveness and risk management and benefits that could be drawn from such “linkage” is needed.
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Marketing characteristics of Tokaj wine specialities based on factor and cluster analyses
93-101Views:254The marketing kind of analysis in the domestic and international markets of Tokaj’s wine speciality has not happend yet. The present research scientific method supportedly defines the consumers of Tokaj’s wine speciality and it determinates the overlay receipt. The basis of the questionnaire research at the wine consumers cirlce is a representative sample of 1179 people. It confirms the truthfulness with factos and cluster dissection. On the hungarian market 5 sections can be devided, which has been determined by the earning category, the wine savvy and the referene price interval. Tokaj Wine Specialities named “late vintage” are also available. This name can be confusing for the consumer, some do not understand in what they differ from other Tokaj Wine Specialities, as actually all Tokaj Wine Specialities are late vintage wines; particularly, wine is harvested later than usual, occasionally in October or November. The findings obtained during the research can beutilised in practice, too. In accordance with the results and conclusions, we have several practical suggestions. Our methodological suggestion is that the result of the cluster analysis based upon a large number of representative sample should be cross-checked with focus group tests; what is more, upon justification and verification, a detailed analysis of the given segments can also be performed better with this method. It would be worth studying the exact reasons for the popularity of wines with the name ”late vintage”. Such types of Tokaj Wine Specialities should be given higher priority in marketing terms. My suggestion is that the type of wine accepted and liked by consumers should be kept count of as TokajWine Specialities officially, too. The future marketing strategy has to be developed by knowing the sections and by it’s further research which has to integrate to the strategy of Tokaj’s wine region.
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Selection of agricultural land for multifunctional agriculture
49-52Views:138The modern concept of rural development implies the use of agricultural resources, primarily agricultural land, for other (non-agricultural) activities besides its agricultural purpose. The integral aim of this concept of rural development is the maximization of economic results, besides the sustainable development of rural areas, environmental protection and the production of strategic (staple) agricultural products. The objective of this paper is to define the general, theoretical, quantitative model for the determination of the size and quality of agricultural land which, considering the above-mentioned demands (criteria), is optimal for the utilization in agricultural production in certain regions. The remaining agricultural land would be available for the non-agricultural purposes. The economic optimal model for the selection of agricultural land in the traditional agriculture is the model of linear programming. The criteria of the land selection for traditional agriculture are the economic effectiveness (measured by net income or by gross national product) and the economic efficiency (measured by the production economy). The maximum economic effectiveness is determined by the standard method of linear programming and the maximum economy by the method of broken linear programming. The solution of compromise can be determined by multi-criteria programming, based on the minimum differences. The limitation groups in the mentioned variations of the model are: limitations of production quotas of agricultural products, minimum quantities of staple agricultural products, limitations of processing plants in a region (minimum and maximum), limitation of crop rotation, limitations of the needs in animal husbandry for bulky for age and limitations of agricultural land according to various types of utilization. By quantitative defining of the structure and size of agricultural land for traditional agriculture, “the surplus” and structure of agricultural land available for non-agricultural purposes is automatically determined.
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Comparing ols and rank-based estimation techniques for production analysis: An application to Ghanaian maize farms.
125-130Views:153This paper introduces the rank-based estimation method to modelling the Cobb-Douglas production function as an alternative to the least squares approach. The intent is to demonstrate how a nonparametric regression based on a rank-based estimator can be used to estimate a Cobb-Douglas production function using data on maize production from Ghana. The nonparametric results are compared to common parametric specification using the ordinary least squares regression. Results of the study indicate that the estimated coefficients of the CobbDouglas Model using the Least squares method and the rank-based regression analysis are similar. Findings indicated that in both estimation techniques, land and Equipment had a significant and positive influence on output whilst agrochemicals had a significantly negative effect on output. Additionally, seeds which also had a negative influence on output was found to be significant in the robust rank-based estimation, but insignificant in the ordinary least square estimation. Both the least squares and rank-based regression suggest that the farmers were operating at an increasing returns to scale. In effect this paper demonstrate the usefulness of the rank-based estimation in production analysis.
JEL CODE: Q18, D24, Q12, C1 and C67
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Using DEA to evaluate efficiency of higher education
79-82Views:572The aim of the higher education reform process both in Hungary and in the European countries is establishing a competitive, qualitative higher education with efficiently operating institutions. The question of efficiency needs increased attention not only because of the decline of the state support but also the rapid raise of the student mass. In the educationsystemit’snot easy to measurethe output of the services.The situation is more complicated if an organisation or a sector has multiple inputs and outputs. In this case a possible method of determining efficiency is Data Envelopment Analysis. In my paper I’d like to introduce this method and use it to compare the efficiency of higher education systems. urthermore I am examining whether their efficiency is influenced by the extent of the contribution of the state and the private sector or socio-economic factors like GDP per capita and education level of parents.
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Learning Motivations, Styles and Expectations of Students – a Survey at the University of Debrecen
41-46Views:251Based on the experience of the authors, today's university students have different learning habits, expectations of learning and knowledge compared to previous generations. This raises the question of how traditional teaching, teaching methods effectively suited to their development. In this study, the authors examined with quantitative method the expectations of bachelor and master students concerning the business education at university. The survey was conducted among university students assessing whether students with different BSc/BA or MSc/MA majors show the willingness to continue their studies, and the authors were interested in their expectations concerning the business higher education. The authors also tried to find answers in the survey how well-prepared the students feel for the offered opportunities by today's market environment, or may prefer proceeding with their studies. Among the issues authors searched what are the most effective ways of learning for them, based on learning style, what motivates them to continue learning. What kind of education form is preferred by them to continue studying? They also respond the need of having theoretical and practical knowledge and the importance of developing practical life skills. In addition, it has also been surveyed what other expectations the students have in continuing their studies with regard to the institutions. The authors of this paper are working as team coaches at the Team Academy Debrecen. In the last six years, they worked with numerous teams and have experiences in developing students' skills in teams.
JEL Classification: A22
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Modeling multifunctionality of agriculture at a farm-level: The case of kerkini district, Northern Greece
59-64Views:134Multifuncionality has become a central concern at both conceptual and empirical levels. In this study, a comparative evaluation of the economic performance of conventional and multifunctional farms (mainly organic farms) was conducted for the Lake Kerkini region (North Greece) with the use of mixed integer non-linear programming method. The economic performance of farms was evaluated in terms of farm income, resource allocation, production level and production mix. The results indicate that multifunctional farms have overall better economic performance and young farm managers are keener to adopt multifunctional farming than the older ones. Differences between the model results and the observed facts are attributed to the structural characteristics of the farms, along with the CAP measures and the existence of multiple objectives, beyond maximization of net farm returns.
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Aspects of the sustainable utilization of renewable energy sources
91-94Views:172The aim of this paper is to analyze the main approaches to sustainability and to present an alternative interpretation for the issues involved in the utilization of RES. The utilization technologies can be described by the average values of several technological parameters. Some significant parameters were chosen which are the most relevant for the issue of sustainability. The group of attributes was composed of these parameters in the analysis, which was conducted by the choice experiment (CE) methodology. The examination of each attributes’ influence on the individual’s preferences and choices was made possible by this method and the preferences of the relevant experts were determined. The weight of the attributes was defined by experts according to the importance of each attribute regarding RES-based technologies. The importance of sustainability attributes implies the significance of sustainability in the case of RES technologies, which thus highlights the characteristics of the more prosperous technological parameters regarding sustainable development.
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Examining career orientations at the University of Debrecen
59-67Views:194The paper endeavours to give a narrower definition of the orientation of ‘career’. The survey to be discussed examines a sample of 116 full time students of economics and has career anchor analysis as its focus. The study details the result of a questionnaire-based survey, which was carried out with respect to the carrier of university students and was supplemented by surveying motivation, value and work value as well. The analysis finds that “security, stability and organisational identification” are judged to be the primary career anchors among the members of the majority sample. This means that the respondents feel ready to identify themselves with the company and are looking for security to be provided by long term employment, regular earnings and by steady career advancement. The cluster analysis of the questionnaire differentiates four groups: Leaders, Specialists, Entrepreneurs and Employees. The results showed that the Leaders have high capacities of leadership, creativity and autonomy. The Specialists show highly developed functional capabilities in general and they seem to like challenges. The Entrepreneurs have outstandingly high scores concerning autonomy and entrepreneurial creativity. The members of the cluster of the Employees are characterised by a high expectation of security and stability and by low levels of managerial capability and entrepreneurial creativity. Discriminant analysis was applied to select the distinguishing features that can set the clusters apart from each other. The motivations, values preferences and work values inventory will consolidate the differences between the clusters of the career anchors. Using the method in high education within special trainings could be the practical utilization of the study. On the basis of the results a questionnaire can be compiled, which could help uncertain students relating to their carriers and future orientation containing information in connection with their carrier orientation, motivation, value preferences and work value.
JEL code: I21
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Work organization and economic examination of breadwinning of rurality
37-39Views:123Agriculture has been and probably will be a significant branch in the south part of the Great Plain in the future as well. Besides the mass products and in many cases instead of them when forming the agricultural structure, this region has to pay more attention to the branches that were important in the past. Hungarian experts who are famous in foreign countries as well deal with these branches and they provide excellent products. The rules referring to these products are more liberal in the market places of the European Union and their development is not controlled by strict quota systems. In the south part of the Great Hungarian Plain a lot of unique products of excellent quality are produced. Here in this essay we would like to find the answer to the question how the two significant products of the southern part of the Great Hungarian Plain can provide the families with the income that they can live on.We aim at the economical examination of the cucumber grown in Méhkerék and asparagus of Homok. To do this we will apply the so called Standard Gross Margin. The agriculture of the states of the European Union is measured with the help of this method. It can also help us in the future to decide whether the different farms belonging to families are economically viable in Hungary.
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Analysis of the expected income of several family types
49-51Views:327In this essay, I deal with the problem of expected income of family holdings. Despite the fact that expected income is mentioned in numerous specialist publications and in political declarations, its definition and method of calculation are not detailed. On the basis of my research, I define the notion of expected income and I determine its scale concerning different family types for the year 2006, on the basis of a survey I carried out among 198 agriculturists.
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Changes in the Relationship Between ICT Use and Economic Development in EU Member States 2010-2016
91-100Views:234In this study, we examined some ICT indicators of the EU Member States between 2010 and 2016 based on data of the World Bank and Eurostat. We wanted to know, how can the EU Member States be grouped according to these indicators, and which group can Hungary belong to. With the help of international literature reviews, three indicators were chosen. According to these we created three groups (underdeveloped, developing, developed) with the K-Mean cluster method that is classified by their level of development. Interesting changes took place during the period under review. By the end of the analyzed period, six countries lost their “developed” rating among others some founding members. There were also interesting changes in the clusters. The value of some indicators increased more than 40% in some cases, surprisingly, only in one case measured reduction. The proportion of ICT specialists decreased in developing countries (by 1%). The highest growth rate was observed in the developed countries in e-commerce. Because of the high proportion of ICT professionals and the share of e-commerce in the developed cluster we assumed that service would be the dominant sector. The two-sample t-test did not confirm our hypothesis. We supposed the focus in developing countries will be on the industry, due we think the developed countries started to outsource their SSCs (shared service centers) to less developed countries. With the help of a statistical indicator, we confirmed our assumption, but the result not so convincing since the significant level is only 11%. Although we thought that the underdeveloped group of countries was based on agriculture, statistical studies did not support our hypothesis.
JEL Classification: O13, O14, O52
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Methodological and integration aspects of abc-method application in trade organizations
107-110Views:94In conditions of declining consumer demand and deficit of credit resources more and more managers of Russian companies think of necessity of introducing effective methods and systems of cost management. One of the most relevant is method of “Activity Based Costing” (ABC-method). Since, in western experts’opinion sectors of service and trade are adjusted to use ofABC-method even more than production, we should refer once more to the main methodological and integration aspects ofABC-method application and consider it from position of trade organization.
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