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Data mining through a business window (Part II.)
108-130Views:217This article demonstrates the real world applications of the technology of data mining by way of a data mining project. This project was created by the author and the analyzed database was provided by a real company. The aim of the analysis was to create a classification model for this firm. To achieve this we applied logistic regression models, a decision tree and a neural network. The best model can help the company to consciously establish which customers will probably respond positively to a personal letter in a direct marketing campaign. In this way potentially favourable customers are reached more efficiently than in the case of randomized selection. This increases the efficiency of the company, and the generalization of results can confirm several advantages of data mining as used in business life.
JEL classification: C25, C44, C45, C49, C88
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Revealed comparative advantage in Hungarian agriculture: a chaotic or coherent pattern?
59-82Views:210We describe the evolving pattern of Hungarian agri-food trade using recently developed empirical procedures based around the classic Balassa Index at various aggregation level and different bechmark between 1992 and 2002. Our results shows a significant geographical differences and across sub-sectors of 1, 2, and 3 digit SITC classification. The extent of trade specialisation exhibits a declining trend for all benchmarks; Hungary has lost comparative advantage for a number of product groups over time. The indices of specialisation have also tended to converge. For particular product groups, the indices display greater variation. They are stable for product groups with comparative disadvantage, but product groups with weak to strong comparative advantage show significant variation.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: Q12
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The effect of the transition to IFRS on the value judgement of investors
3-19Views:342In our research, we examined the profitability of companies switching to IFRS and the value judgement of investors in the two accounting systems. During the examination, we established that there is no significant difference in the ROS and ROA profitability indicators in the two accounting systems. It is important to note that in the case of both indicators, for companies with a high fixed asset requirement, there is a significant difference in the two accounting systems based on the results of the Wilcoxon rank sum test. Taking into account the number of elements of the clusters, their proportion, and the value of the effect size, in our opinion, the conclusion cannot be drawn for the entire basic population that the indicators significantly differed as a result of the transition, because the difference can only be observed in the cluster with a lower number of elements, or a particularly strong relationship cannot be revealed for any of the indicators. On the other hand, for the ROE indicator, a significant difference can be clearly established in the two accounting systems, as the significant relationship can be demonstrated both in companies with low and high capital requirements. Overall, in the IFRS, the companies showed more favourable profitability with regard to the ROE indicator. The second examination of our research is related to this, which aimed to determine whether the significant deviation of the ROE indicator in the year of the transition can be attributed to the transition to IFRS.
JEL classification code: M40
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Impact of the sustainability report on Hungarian stock prices
94-107Views:184ESG reporting has become increasingly significant for evaluating corporate sustainability. Our study examined firms that had been publicly listed for several years by 2023, and which had already engaged in ESG reporting voluntarily, showing an early, consistent commitment to sustainability despite the absence of regulatory requirements. We hypothesised that this group’s market valuation metrics would reflect a more favourable and realistic investor assessment compared to a control group. However, our findings revealed that while statistically significant differences appeared primarily in the Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) ratios, overall, the investor assessments did not yet demonstrate a statistically significant divergence on average. This may suggest that ESG reports serve more as marketing tools than as indicators of genuine sustainable resource management, which some investors recognise from other mandatory financial disclosures. These insights can support further research on the Hungarian investment climate and aid in refining EU sustainability directives within Hungary’s regulatory framework.
JEL classification code: Q56, G11
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The Development of Growth Accounting Techniques in the Mirror of Economic Growth
85-103Views:243In this article we present the development of certain growth theories that model the main sources of growth. Since the elasticity of substitution – one of the most important parameters of production function – is not unity, as the Cobb-Douglas production function assumes, it can be different from a value of 1; hence we need a more general CES-type (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) production function. Another important question is the classification of factors of production. The elasticity of substitution is an efficiency factor as well, thus it receives special attention in the analysis. Finally we summarize the main papers that are mainly concerned with growth accounting, and try to answer the question of which factors play a significant or less significant role in economic growth. Growth accounting is strongly connected to growth theories so we refer back to growth theory at certain points.
JEL classification: E13, O47
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Adatbányászat üzleti szemmel (I. rész)
Views:156Organizations in the 21st century - whether they are profitoriented or not, in private ownership or state-owned - can increase their efficiency with an outstanding tool. This tool is data mining. This article first of all defines and presents data mining, and locates it in the process of 'Knowledge Discovery in Databases'. Following this we review the fields of employment of data mining and the basic methods employed. In particular we discuss the method of classification and the theoretical background of the main techniques, such as decision trees, neural networks and logistic regression models. The second part of this paper presents the real world application of this technology by way of an analysis of a real database.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: C25, C44, C45, C49
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Corrupt German companies? A political economy approach to German corporate scandals of recent years
97-114Views:174The paper seeks to explain German corporate scandals of recent years from a political economy point of view, adopting a 'varieties of capitalism' approach. Scandals have taken place in two realms of corporate activities: (i) in industrial relations defined by the system of Mitbestimmung that my well constrain corporate restructuring, and (ii) in export markets where corrupting foreign officials has always been a widespread practice among large exporting companies, including export-intensive German manufacturing corporations. In recent years institutional changes in domestic and international markets, including regulatory regimes, have significantly altered the set of viable options for corporate strategies. In consequence, large German companies have to adjust to new circumstances. Although the institutional underpinnings of coordinated market economies have been changing, German corporatism is not set to vanish yet.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: P16, F55
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The role of sovereign wealth funds in the international financial system
111-125Views:233While sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) were formerly considered to be passive financial investors, today we can see their active presence in international capital markets. As their assets are continuously growing under their management, they are likely to have important impacts both on the financial services sector and international capital movements as well. The aim of this study is to give an overall view of the role of sovereign wealth funds assumed during the credit crisis, as well as of their possible impacts on the economic and financial system. The problem of transparency will also be discussed, namely the lack of it, which derives from the fact that most sovereign wealth funds do not disclose any information about their activities, operations, and investments. Moreover, this study provides an insight into policy responses made on the international level concerning SWFs.
JEL classification: E58, F21, F30, G15
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Twenty-one Economic Arguments against an Unconditional Basic Income
5-29Views:690In 2013/14 there has been an intense public debate both in the European Union and in Hungary on the feasibility of Unconditional Basic Income (UBI) support. In the Hungarian context, the publication of a 100-page proposal was an important milestone, in which a group of experts applied the UBI concept to the present circumstances. The study, the brainchild of István Bánfalvi, a distinguished social policy practitioner, proposed the following specific amounts as from January 2015: HUF 25,000 for children (≈ EUR 83), HUF 50,000 for adults and HUF 75,000 for expectant mothers. The present paper’s first objective was to challenge the entire 25-50-75 concept from both theoretical and practical-administrative perspectives. In addition, we tried to show that income poverty in Hungary is much less of a problem than generally presumed. Our final conclusion is that from a poverty alleviation point of view the geographical remobilization of the Hungarian Roma population is by far the most important issue. Roma living in small rural settlements should be assisted to move towards large cities, where the chances of finding work, education and health care are much better.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: H21, I38, J15
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The Impact of the Economic Crisis on the Development Lifecycles, the Short-term Plans and the Strategy of the Actors in the Hungarian SME Sector
29-43Views:282This study was prepared in the third phase of a multi-year research project. The goal of the program was to analyse the growth trajectories and strategies of Hungarian SMEs. Research in the first phase was focused on the specific periods of typical company lifecycles, the second phase dealt with strategic thinking, methods of strategy formulation and the content elements of strategies. The findings and conclusions were published in the journal Competitio. The present study is a report on the findings of the third phase of the research program. It describes the consequences of the recent economic and financial crisis on SMEs. It describes how unexpected and radical changes in the business environment influenced the development of firms, how managers reacted, and how they considered short and long
term factors in their decisions.JEL classification: L21, L26, M1
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Unworthy poverty as social relations
43-60Views:568The paper deals with recent discourses on poverty, exemplified by the case of Hungarian Romany community. For this purpose we first deduce from the theoretical framework of the underclass three way of viewing extreme poverty: the political-economic type that traces poverty back to developments of the whole society; the culturalistic type in which poverty is the result of certain behavioural deficiencies (the “culture”) of the poor; and the interdependency type that regards poverty as induced by factors in the society as a whole and perpetuated by poverty specific cultural elements of the poor themselves.
In the second part of the study we discuss three fields of discourse with respect to the question of which of the mentioned types can be found there. In the field of social sciences it is preeminently the interdependency type which occurs, probably because of its capability to link many, even heterogeneous, observations. In public discourse – analyzed by considering an internet debate and two so-called scandals – the culturalistic type dominates: Romanies are poor, because they have Romany cultural (behavioural) deficiencies. The Romanies themselves mainly use elements of the political-economic type, explaining poverty in terms of general impoverishment, regional neglect, and group discrimination.Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: I32, J15, J16, O15
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Individual Values for Organizational Success
37-51Views:188Douglas McGregor published Theory Y in 1960. The main element of this theory is integration of individual and organizational objectives. Today, near 50 years later, the integration of individual and organizational goals remians only theory in several business organizations. The author of this study conducted an online survey in 2008 in order to examine company cultures, values was harmonization between organizational-level and individual-level sets of values. Two multinational companies with 324 respondents took part in the research up to this time. This publication shows the findings of the survey and illustrates the importance of harmonization between organizational-level and individual-level values. Finally, it comes up with some ideas what leaders can do in order to harmonize the value hierarchies efficiently in their organizations.
JEL classification: D21, L21, L25
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The Conditions of and Requirements for the Formation of Clusters in Biotechnology
118-131Views:179In this article, with the help of the value chain model, I explain the functioning of biotech clusters. The “cluster” phrase was originally defined by Porter. In my opinion, the problem with Porter’s and other classical definitions of a cluster is that they are static, whereas the main feature of clusters’ is actually their dynamic nature. This is the reason why the following should also be included in the definition:
– clusters emerge in a turbulent way: processes cannot be foreseen due to the lack of linearity.
– a cluster, however, is a kind of an arena, because dense and changing vertical input-output relations and connections between horizontal organizations always generate a sort of a need for change.
– clusters cause changes in the innovation policy, as they support the evolution of a policy which is appropriate for cluster formation. That is, they act as catalysts for the formation of better conditions.
Accordingly, Porter’s original definition needs modification.JEL classification: O32, L25, L65, D80
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Business Intelligence from a Strategic Perspective
49-70Views:604Business Intelligence is one of the fastest growing sectors of corporate informatics today. The study describes the history of the related approaches, models and applications, starting from the beginning of the last century. The most important growth engines are highlighted and the strategic role of business intelligence is explained in detail. Both the supply and the demand side of the BI market are analysed and key developments and trends are explained. Special attention is paid to explaining and modelling the intensive acquisition activity of the recent past, and to the potential consequences of the growing need for integration. New market and technology trends changing the application landscape are analysed at the end.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: M10, M15, M40
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The Concept of Innovative Fiscal Policy: Theory and Empirical Evidence
Views:225This contribution addresses the question of what are the main constituents of an innovative fiscal policy in the context of sustainability. We apply the concept of sustaining and disruptive innovation to fiscal policy. On the one hand, innovative fiscal policy is able to be sustaining whereby public finance will incrementally improve without leaving its decisive structure. On the other hand, innovative fiscal policy should be disruptive as well in the context of long term sustainability, whereby the structure of public finances can be profoundly restructured as a reaction to future challenges. By using the Finnish recovery in the early 1990s, we can refine our argument about the use and necessity of the mixture of fiscal rules and independent institutions in favour of fiscal sustainability. We also shed light on the key sources of the expansionary consolidation that emerged in the aftermath of the fiscal adjustment in the early 1990s. We emphasise that innovative fiscal policy with a mixture of legislated fiscal rules and independent fiscal anchor is more likely to be associated with sustainability if the economy has weaker growth potential which does not provide enough social trust towards the consolidation efforts of the government.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E61, E62, Q01
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Competitive adavntages: Theory and corporate practice
51-70Views:238The competitive advantage achieved by a company basically influences its profitability and market position. The article shows that in addition to this the evaluation has many other criteria, and the management must consider these when defining competitive adavantage. The study explains that as a result of the acceleration of technological and economic development, the globalization of economic processes, and the evaluation of networks of interdepedence, the management have to face new types of competitive advantage. To choose between these the management has to consider competitive vulnerability. Following this the article attempts to summarize the basic law of the theory of competitive advantage, before introducing the most important management techniques for the selection of competitive advantage. Finally, the study emphasizes that the key factor in achieving a competitive edge and the success of different management techniques is the CEO, and through the model of the "CEO's personality pyramid" it explains the requirements that the manager has to meet.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: O30, O32
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Human Resources Management in the Changes in Hungary In the Light of Two Consecutive Cranet Researches: Két egymást követő Cranet felmérés eredményei alapján
92-110Views:530Management, including Human Resources Management, has undergone major changes in Hungary since the economic and political changes of 1989. This area is even regarded as a field of continuous transformation. This study makes an effort to compare differences and similarities of specific features of Human Resources Management in Hungary in the light of two consecutive surveys, Cranet 2005 and 2008 (Cranet is an established group of top business schools and academic institutions, all collaborating to provide unique and rigorous data on human resource management practices across the world). According to these analyses, the study compares typical characteristics and practices of Human Resources Management in Hungary with major trends and tendencies of this field in 32 countries, including 6 countries from the Central and Eastern European region as well.
JEL classification: J24, M1, M54
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The economic impacts of direct payments on agricultural income – A Literature Review
3-25Views:814The economic impacts of direct payments is a widely studied field in the literature related to the Common Agricultural Policy. This article aims to provide a systematic review of the income-related impacts of direct payments. In doing so, the article screened the academic literature on the impacts of direct payments and identified 150 relevant ones, out of which 41 were written directly on income-related effects.
Relevant articles can be classified into four groups: general, distributional, stabilisation and other impacts. Most of the literature criticised the ongoing system of direct payments and their effectiveness in producing income-related policy goals. We believe that our results can be useful for researchers and policymakers in better understanding the income-related impacts of direct payments.Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: Q18
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Study the past as if you would define the future!? - Testing the effectiveness of technical analysis on the Budapest Stock Exchange
201-214Views:231Technical analysis is an attempt to forecast prices of a financial asset by the study of its past prices. This technique has been an element of financial practice for many decades, but it has not recieved general acceptance in academic literature. In this paper I analyze the effectiveness of certain technical trading rules on the Budapest Stoch Exchange between 1999 and 2005. In the first step I test if there are trading rules that can be qualified as effective when the analysis is applited to the full seven-year period. Some worries arise concerning the long-term analysis, so in the next step I test whether the effectiveness of the trading rules change if the analysis is applied to one-year sub-periods. The results indicate that it is worth implementing the short-term analysis because it shows a different picture of the effectiveness of the trading rules. However, the results of the short-term analysis show that if these trading rules are tested on one-year sub-periods, it becomes doubtful that they are effective.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: G14, G15
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Protecting the Architectural Heritage and Economic Strategy
18-28Views:219This essay advances five theses explaining the desolate state of the architectural heritage in Hungary. It also addresses the issue of why two decades of transition was not sufficient to remedy the shortcomings of four decades of socialism. In the second part of the study we attempt to draft a strategy that could help overcome these difficulties. It aims at a combination of business, municipal and civil society activities guided by a nationally coordinated plan. Following these guidelines the architectural heritage in Hungary could be transformed into an asset instead of a liability, as has been the case in many other European countries.
JEL classification: I38, O21, P20, R11
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Strategic market entry barriers in Hungary
91-107Views:274This study is a continuation of a former project of the same research team. The focus of the research is market entry in Hungary for foreign firms, along with strategic entry barriers to both domestic and foreign importers to Hungary. A comparison of our findings from 2003 and 2008 gives some insights into the integration of the Hungarian domestic market into the Single European Market. Practical advice is offered to Hungarian market players on the scope of strategic entry barriers in Hungary as well as the ways entrepreneurs assess them.
JEL classification: F13, F14, F15
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Features of Knowledge Intensive Business Services from Innovation Aspects
147-156Views:226Based on the innovation approach to services this paper defines knowledge intensive business services and gives an overview of their features from innovation perspectives. It finds that different service activities are related to innovation systems to varying extents. Compared to other sectors, services lack stimulative institutional and other formal support systems that may act not only as knowledge centres for companies but could also contribute to both the protection and spread of innovation. In contrast with production, the absence of an efficient protection of intellectual property indicates a significant risk in the service sector, and hinders optimal knowledge transfer and results in waste and duplication in innovation efforts.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Classification: O31, O32, L84
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Price transmission on the Hungarian pork meat market in the presence of structural breaks
24-36Views:165The study of marketing margins and price transmission on various commodity markets has been a popular research topic of the past decades (see MEYER, VON CRAMON-TAUBADEL, 2004, for a present survey). However with a few exceptions these studies focused on developed economies. This paper examines the above phenomena on the Hungarian pork market. The Johansen (maximum likelihood, 1988) or Engle and Granger (two step, 1987) cointegration tests do not reject the no-cointegration null hypothesis between the Hungarian pork producer and retail price series. Therefore, we applied the Gregory and Hansen (1996) procedure with recursively estimated breakpoints and ADF statistics, and found that the prices are cointegrated with a structural break occurring in April 1996. Exogeneity tests reveal the causality running from producer to retail prices both in the long and short run. Homogeneity tests are rejected, suggesting mark-up pricing strategy. Price transmission modelling suggests that price transmission on the Hungarian pork meat market is symmetric in the long, but asymmetric in the short-run, i.e. processors, wholesalers or retailers might take temporary advantage, should price changes occur.
Journal of Econmic Literature (JEL) classification: Q13, D12, D4
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The Marketing Concept, Market Orientation and Marketing Competencies: How are they Adopted in Small and Medium-sized Firms?
104-117Views:192The aim of this paper is to review the literature dealing with the marketing concept, its implementation, i.e., market orientation, marketing competencies and their effects on performance with special emphasis on small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). A large number of studies have shown that, on the one hand, the lack of a conceptual marketing approach is one of the most serious problems owner-managers face in business operations and, on the other hand, marketing is recognised as one of the most important business activities essential to the survival and growth of the enterprise. According to the literature,
the adoption of the marketing concept/market orientation in SME-s is limited, due to limited resources in finance, time and marketing competencies.JEL classification: L26, M14, M31
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Knowledge Export in Higher Education: A Hierarchic Approach
35-48Views:214The role of higher education in economic growth is increasing parallel with the development of the knowledge industry. The export income from student mobility estimated by some experts exceeds 40 billion US dollars worldwide. In this paper we discuss two aspects of the phenomenon. First, higher education as an industry is more complex than simply student mobility. This is true despite the fact that this mobility is the most visible and most attractive part of the export activity. There are research outputs of universities and other service activities which are classified as exports and which are offered in market based systems. Second, the individual professors - whether employees of universities or freelance knowledge workers - university departments, faculties, universities, countries, regions, etc. could serve as the subjects of the statistical measurement of activities. All of those activities which are carried out by universities can be measured in different hierarchical systems.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: F14, M31