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Data mining through a business window (Part II.)
108-130Views:136This article demonstrates the real world applications of the technology of data mining by way of a data mining project. This project was created by the author and the analyzed database was provided by a real company. The aim of the analysis was to create a classification model for this firm. To achieve this we applied logistic regression models, a decision tree and a neural network. The best model can help the company to consciously establish which customers will probably respond positively to a personal letter in a direct marketing campaign. In this way potentially favourable customers are reached more efficiently than in the case of randomized selection. This increases the efficiency of the company, and the generalization of results can confirm several advantages of data mining as used in business life.
JEL classification: C25, C44, C45, C49, C88
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The Development of Growth Accounting Techniques in the Mirror of Economic Growth
85-103Views:144In this article we present the development of certain growth theories that model the main sources of growth. Since the elasticity of substitution – one of the most important parameters of production function – is not unity, as the Cobb-Douglas production function assumes, it can be different from a value of 1; hence we need a more general CES-type (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) production function. Another important question is the classification of factors of production. The elasticity of substitution is an efficiency factor as well, thus it receives special attention in the analysis. Finally we summarize the main papers that are mainly concerned with growth accounting, and try to answer the question of which factors play a significant or less significant role in economic growth. Growth accounting is strongly connected to growth theories so we refer back to growth theory at certain points.
JEL classification: E13, O47
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Adatbányászat üzleti szemmel (I. rész)
Views:95Organizations in the 21st century - whether they are profitoriented or not, in private ownership or state-owned - can increase their efficiency with an outstanding tool. This tool is data mining. This article first of all defines and presents data mining, and locates it in the process of 'Knowledge Discovery in Databases'. Following this we review the fields of employment of data mining and the basic methods employed. In particular we discuss the method of classification and the theoretical background of the main techniques, such as decision trees, neural networks and logistic regression models. The second part of this paper presents the real world application of this technology by way of an analysis of a real database.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: C25, C44, C45, C49
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Revealed comparative advantage in Hungarian agriculture: a chaotic or coherent pattern?
59-82Views:114We describe the evolving pattern of Hungarian agri-food trade using recently developed empirical procedures based around the classic Balassa Index at various aggregation level and different bechmark between 1992 and 2002. Our results shows a significant geographical differences and across sub-sectors of 1, 2, and 3 digit SITC classification. The extent of trade specialisation exhibits a declining trend for all benchmarks; Hungary has lost comparative advantage for a number of product groups over time. The indices of specialisation have also tended to converge. For particular product groups, the indices display greater variation. They are stable for product groups with comparative disadvantage, but product groups with weak to strong comparative advantage show significant variation.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: Q12
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Business Intelligence from a Strategic Perspective
49-70Views:426Business Intelligence is one of the fastest growing sectors of corporate informatics today. The study describes the history of the related approaches, models and applications, starting from the beginning of the last century. The most important growth engines are highlighted and the strategic role of business intelligence is explained in detail. Both the supply and the demand side of the BI market are analysed and key developments and trends are explained. Special attention is paid to explaining and modelling the intensive acquisition activity of the recent past, and to the potential consequences of the growing need for integration. New market and technology trends changing the application landscape are analysed at the end.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: M10, M15, M40
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The Concept of Innovative Fiscal Policy: Theory and Empirical Evidence
Views:121This contribution addresses the question of what are the main constituents of an innovative fiscal policy in the context of sustainability. We apply the concept of sustaining and disruptive innovation to fiscal policy. On the one hand, innovative fiscal policy is able to be sustaining whereby public finance will incrementally improve without leaving its decisive structure. On the other hand, innovative fiscal policy should be disruptive as well in the context of long term sustainability, whereby the structure of public finances can be profoundly restructured as a reaction to future challenges. By using the Finnish recovery in the early 1990s, we can refine our argument about the use and necessity of the mixture of fiscal rules and independent institutions in favour of fiscal sustainability. We also shed light on the key sources of the expansionary consolidation that emerged in the aftermath of the fiscal adjustment in the early 1990s. We emphasise that innovative fiscal policy with a mixture of legislated fiscal rules and independent fiscal anchor is more likely to be associated with sustainability if the economy has weaker growth potential which does not provide enough social trust towards the consolidation efforts of the government.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E61, E62, Q01
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Competitive adavntages: Theory and corporate practice
51-70Views:140The competitive advantage achieved by a company basically influences its profitability and market position. The article shows that in addition to this the evaluation has many other criteria, and the management must consider these when defining competitive adavantage. The study explains that as a result of the acceleration of technological and economic development, the globalization of economic processes, and the evaluation of networks of interdepedence, the management have to face new types of competitive advantage. To choose between these the management has to consider competitive vulnerability. Following this the article attempts to summarize the basic law of the theory of competitive advantage, before introducing the most important management techniques for the selection of competitive advantage. Finally, the study emphasizes that the key factor in achieving a competitive edge and the success of different management techniques is the CEO, and through the model of the "CEO's personality pyramid" it explains the requirements that the manager has to meet.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: O30, O32
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Human Resources Management in the Changes in Hungary In the Light of Two Consecutive Cranet Researches: Két egymást követő Cranet felmérés eredményei alapján
92-110Views:371Management, including Human Resources Management, has undergone major changes in Hungary since the economic and political changes of 1989. This area is even regarded as a field of continuous transformation. This study makes an effort to compare differences and similarities of specific features of Human Resources Management in Hungary in the light of two consecutive surveys, Cranet 2005 and 2008 (Cranet is an established group of top business schools and academic institutions, all collaborating to provide unique and rigorous data on human resource management practices across the world). According to these analyses, the study compares typical characteristics and practices of Human Resources Management in Hungary with major trends and tendencies of this field in 32 countries, including 6 countries from the Central and Eastern European region as well.
JEL classification: J24, M1, M54
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The economic impacts of direct payments on agricultural income – A Literature Review
3-25Views:527The economic impacts of direct payments is a widely studied field in the literature related to the Common Agricultural Policy. This article aims to provide a systematic review of the income-related impacts of direct payments. In doing so, the article screened the academic literature on the impacts of direct payments and identified 150 relevant ones, out of which 41 were written directly on income-related effects.
Relevant articles can be classified into four groups: general, distributional, stabilisation and other impacts. Most of the literature criticised the ongoing system of direct payments and their effectiveness in producing income-related policy goals. We believe that our results can be useful for researchers and policymakers in better understanding the income-related impacts of direct payments.Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: Q18
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Study the past as if you would define the future!? - Testing the effectiveness of technical analysis on the Budapest Stock Exchange
201-214Views:141Technical analysis is an attempt to forecast prices of a financial asset by the study of its past prices. This technique has been an element of financial practice for many decades, but it has not recieved general acceptance in academic literature. In this paper I analyze the effectiveness of certain technical trading rules on the Budapest Stoch Exchange between 1999 and 2005. In the first step I test if there are trading rules that can be qualified as effective when the analysis is applited to the full seven-year period. Some worries arise concerning the long-term analysis, so in the next step I test whether the effectiveness of the trading rules change if the analysis is applied to one-year sub-periods. The results indicate that it is worth implementing the short-term analysis because it shows a different picture of the effectiveness of the trading rules. However, the results of the short-term analysis show that if these trading rules are tested on one-year sub-periods, it becomes doubtful that they are effective.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: G14, G15
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Protecting the Architectural Heritage and Economic Strategy
18-28Views:126This essay advances five theses explaining the desolate state of the architectural heritage in Hungary. It also addresses the issue of why two decades of transition was not sufficient to remedy the shortcomings of four decades of socialism. In the second part of the study we attempt to draft a strategy that could help overcome these difficulties. It aims at a combination of business, municipal and civil society activities guided by a nationally coordinated plan. Following these guidelines the architectural heritage in Hungary could be transformed into an asset instead of a liability, as has been the case in many other European countries.
JEL classification: I38, O21, P20, R11
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Strategic market entry barriers in Hungary
91-107Views:203This study is a continuation of a former project of the same research team. The focus of the research is market entry in Hungary for foreign firms, along with strategic entry barriers to both domestic and foreign importers to Hungary. A comparison of our findings from 2003 and 2008 gives some insights into the integration of the Hungarian domestic market into the Single European Market. Practical advice is offered to Hungarian market players on the scope of strategic entry barriers in Hungary as well as the ways entrepreneurs assess them.
JEL classification: F13, F14, F15
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Features of Knowledge Intensive Business Services from Innovation Aspects
147-156Views:144Based on the innovation approach to services this paper defines knowledge intensive business services and gives an overview of their features from innovation perspectives. It finds that different service activities are related to innovation systems to varying extents. Compared to other sectors, services lack stimulative institutional and other formal support systems that may act not only as knowledge centres for companies but could also contribute to both the protection and spread of innovation. In contrast with production, the absence of an efficient protection of intellectual property indicates a significant risk in the service sector, and hinders optimal knowledge transfer and results in waste and duplication in innovation efforts.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Classification: O31, O32, L84
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Price transmission on the Hungarian pork meat market in the presence of structural breaks
24-36Views:97The study of marketing margins and price transmission on various commodity markets has been a popular research topic of the past decades (see MEYER, VON CRAMON-TAUBADEL, 2004, for a present survey). However with a few exceptions these studies focused on developed economies. This paper examines the above phenomena on the Hungarian pork market. The Johansen (maximum likelihood, 1988) or Engle and Granger (two step, 1987) cointegration tests do not reject the no-cointegration null hypothesis between the Hungarian pork producer and retail price series. Therefore, we applied the Gregory and Hansen (1996) procedure with recursively estimated breakpoints and ADF statistics, and found that the prices are cointegrated with a structural break occurring in April 1996. Exogeneity tests reveal the causality running from producer to retail prices both in the long and short run. Homogeneity tests are rejected, suggesting mark-up pricing strategy. Price transmission modelling suggests that price transmission on the Hungarian pork meat market is symmetric in the long, but asymmetric in the short-run, i.e. processors, wholesalers or retailers might take temporary advantage, should price changes occur.
Journal of Econmic Literature (JEL) classification: Q13, D12, D4
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The Marketing Concept, Market Orientation and Marketing Competencies: How are they Adopted in Small and Medium-sized Firms?
104-117Views:121The aim of this paper is to review the literature dealing with the marketing concept, its implementation, i.e., market orientation, marketing competencies and their effects on performance with special emphasis on small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). A large number of studies have shown that, on the one hand, the lack of a conceptual marketing approach is one of the most serious problems owner-managers face in business operations and, on the other hand, marketing is recognised as one of the most important business activities essential to the survival and growth of the enterprise. According to the literature,
the adoption of the marketing concept/market orientation in SME-s is limited, due to limited resources in finance, time and marketing competencies.JEL classification: L26, M14, M31
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Knowledge Export in Higher Education: A Hierarchic Approach
35-48Views:137The role of higher education in economic growth is increasing parallel with the development of the knowledge industry. The export income from student mobility estimated by some experts exceeds 40 billion US dollars worldwide. In this paper we discuss two aspects of the phenomenon. First, higher education as an industry is more complex than simply student mobility. This is true despite the fact that this mobility is the most visible and most attractive part of the export activity. There are research outputs of universities and other service activities which are classified as exports and which are offered in market based systems. Second, the individual professors - whether employees of universities or freelance knowledge workers - university departments, faculties, universities, countries, regions, etc. could serve as the subjects of the statistical measurement of activities. All of those activities which are carried out by universities can be measured in different hierarchical systems.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: F14, M31
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Efficiency and resource allocation: the Hungarian managed health care system
Views:100The managed health care system (MHCS) was introduced and applied in Hungary between 1999 and 2009. The gradually expanding system covered only 22% of the population and included exclusively the curative-preventive health care, subsidy on medicaments, subsidy on therapeutic appliances and the spa service. Like anywhere else it was cost-effectiveness that was expected from the MHCS without the adverse effect in the quality of the health service. To decide whether the MHCS was successful in Hungary or not, we compare it with the results of those segments of the health system where the MHCS was not introduced. We use the method of the incremental cost analysis. We are making our comparison exclusively on the basis of health economics aspects, because no difference has evolved in the quality of the medical attendances. We will see that where the MHCS was applied, the medical attendance became cheaper, at those places where the MHCS was not applied the medical attendance became more expensive, causing a chronic financial deficit (137785 million HUF). Although the MHCS managed from less money, it gained 17767 million HUF during the mentioned ten years. We are going to present the general features of the MHCS and support the fact that the outcome of the managed care concept was rationalized and the savings in several segments of health care, by means of empirical evidence.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: I150, I180, G220, G320, H520.
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From mud-hut to microprocessors: The unified growth theory
29-50Views:110The Unified Growth Theory attempts to explain economic growth in the long run within a single framework. Accordingly, it is expected that a successful unified theory is capable of modeling the transition among different economic regimes. In this study, after identifying the main features of the three growth regimes (Mathusian, post-Malthusian and sustained economic growth), we review two typical unified growth theories. While the Hansen-Prescott model seeks to explain how the transition occurred, the Galor-Weil model focuses on the causes and interrelatedness of the observed phenomena.
JEL classification: N10, O41
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University Ranking Lists and Mirror Images - as Prospective Students Make Their Choice
78-91Views:122The paper is based on a survey carried out by the authors, which aimed, on the one hand, at specifying the extent to which would-be students know the rankings of universities and take them into consideration when choosing university faculties, and, on the other hand, at revealing the role played by other factors in their decisions. The majority of would-be students know the rankings of universities but these have not became an important factor in the decision processes. To have good lecturers and professors, to acquire useful knowledge, and to obtain a job with their degree are considered by would-be students as crucial factors. They try to get information from several sources and the Internet has become the most important one, which they use routinely and with skill. On the other hand, it can be proved that they would like to rely on more customized information sources as well.
JEL classification: Z13
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Presentation of economic and socio-cultural impact analyses of the Opera festival of Miskolc
114-130Views:106The article presents research into the economic and socio-cultural impact of the Miskolc Opera festival. It explores how a cultural event – which was created thanks to conscious urban development – can operate in a city with an industrial past and a stagnant economic situation. After the methodology and desk research, the tourist facilities of the city are analyzed. In the following sections of the paper, the results of primary research are presented.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: Z130
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Több hitel, nagyobb kockázat
185-200Views:151The main goal of this paper is to analyse the characteristics of the rapid credit growth in Hungary in recent years. The availability of credit is crucial for households who want to smooth their consumption and for firms, while the amount of credit affects the monetary transmission mechanism and financial stability risks. We analyse the reasons for the credit expansion and demonstrate that the increase in the amount of credit can improve the efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism, We analyse the micro risks induced by credit growth. Finally we demonstrate Krugman's model (1999) in connection with the Asian crises and then we try to prove that the growth of foregin-currency denominated credit decreases the ability of monetary policy to affect aggregate demand.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E51.
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The “Timeless and Highly Topical at the Same Time”: In Memory of Professor András Bródy
5-17Views:127Professor András (Andrew) Bródy, one of the most outstanding of post-war Hungarian economists, perhaps the most spirited member of his generation, died at the age of 86, on 3rd of December, 2010. For several decades he had been dealing with the mathematical formulation of Marxian theory. He was an internationally respected model-builder, applying input-output analysis, also working with Professor Leontief in this field. He was both in full command of high-level theoretical knowledge, and proficient in the latest methodological approaches. He also conducted pioneering research into the application of
the laws of thermodynamics to economic problems. His international fame was initially based on his book Prices and Proportions, published in Hungarian (1969) and also in English by North-Holland (1970). Several articles, conference papers, and several other books he wrote or edited broadened this recognition,
the most important landmarks being Ciklus és szabályozás (Cycles and Regulation, 1980) in Hungarian, Slowdown (1982) in both English and Hungarian, and finally, Near Equilibrium in English (2004) and Chinese (2009). Fortunately, he participated in the work of our department, the History of Economic Thought at the Corvinus University of Budapest between 1995 and 2005. This article in his honour is a brief summary of his achievements and a reader’s selection of his writings prepared for the students of our department which reflect his views on the state of economic theories; also attached is a bibliography of his most important publications.JEL classification: A11, B23, B24, B32
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The impact of digitalization on the financial sector
29-42Views:419Present-day consumer society increasingly satisfies its needs through digital channels, and financial products and services are no exceptions. The 4th industrial revolution is not only about the penetration of technology, but also the paradigm shift of business processes. The traditional members of the financial sector must adapt to the digitalized world to keep their positions in the market. The penetration of BigTech and FinTech companies influenced the expectations of consumers: customer experience became the main criteria of their decisions. In order to simplify and accelerate processes, banks use the methods of digitalization, and automatize the system to increase client satisfaction. In this article, we will introduce the three
bank types based primarily on the usage of innovative technology, the extension and depth of the cooperation with FinTech companies, and the status of a bank’s internal digital transformation. Also, we will introduce the current status of the banking sector evidenced by our SWOT-analysis and mention some of the existing payment solutions.
JEL Classification: G21, G23 -
The question of duality in post-transition economic development
71-90Views:170One of the main questions of the FDI-based economic development model is how the local embeddedness of technologically advanced, globally operating multinational firms can be increased. The global economic integration of smaller, locally owned firms could be enhanced by the stimulating spillover effects stemming from multinationals. However, if the two main sectors of the economy function in isolation from each-other, stimulation effects cannot appear. This paper studies the features and extent of structural duality in Hungary, and the preconditions for deepening economic ties between the two sectors and
of the utilization of positive externalities stemming from the presence of large multinational firms.JEL classification: F23, L53
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Interdependence between government redistribution and economic growth in the long run
132-146Views:156The present paper aims to study changes in the degree of government redistribution with an institutional, historical, statistical and model-like approach. I investigate the impact of changes in redistribution on long-term economic growth in 30 European countries. It is generally stated that government spending/GDP ratio has been continuously increasing (in terms of trend) in Europe since the 1870s. I examine how the size of the states affects economic growth, and what other factors influence the long-run relationship between these two variables. My hypothesis is that in developed countries with high government
redistribution it has been an impediment to economic growth in the long run. Finally, I illustrate this hypothesis with a statistical analysis of 30 European countries.Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Classification: E66, H62, C10