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Investment analysis of a piglet producer farm – a Hungarian case study
141-152Views:282The pig population in Hungary was about 8 million in 1990, while this number dropped to only 2.8 million by 2018. The previously so successful integrated domestic pig farming has almost completely disappeared and most of the smaller farms still operating in the 1990s are no longer functioning. At present, a process of concentration can be observed, which was accompanied by the further specialization of pig farming. The main profile of most pig farms is fattening, but there is a smaller number of farms in Hungary today specialized for piglet production, the successful operation of which requires significantly more expertise and more complex technology.
The main aim of this study is to present the production and economic indicators of a pig farm specialized in piglet production in Hungary as a result of a greenfield investment in the current economic environment, on a case study basis. For this purpose, an economic simulation was prepared based on primary data collection, operating on a deterministic basis, modelling the production and economic processes of the farm. The performed calculation does not derive the economic indicators of the activity from accounting records, but assigns the prices of natural inputs used on the basis of technological data. Primary data and information collection (e.g. technological data, input and output prices, unit cost items, etc.) took place between 2018-2019.
At the purchase prices of pigs in the last two years, which have increased significantly due to the African Swine Fever (ASF), the majority of pig farms in Hungary have an outstanding profit-making capacity. The physical efficiency indicators of the analysed pig farm are almost identical to the average data of such farms in the Netherlands, which has one of the most developed pig industry. The income of the examined pig farm at farm level is about 734 thousand EUR, i.e. 232 EUR per sow. Moreover, this activity is profitable even without subsidies. As a result, the greenfield investment pays off in the 8th year by default (average scenario). The investment has a Net Present Value (NPVr=3%) of EUR 2,609 thousand for 10 years, an Internal Rate of Return of 8.5%, and a Profitability Index (PIr=3%) of 1.3. At the same time, risk factors such as sales prices, output and capacity utilization, and feed costs should be taken into consideration as in extreme cases the return on investment may be unfavourable (pessimistic scenario).
JEL code: D24, M11, Q12
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Methane reductions to moderate the global warming effects
59-64Views:167The case-study overviews the possible reduction for the methane gas emission in order to avoid of the more global warming effects and climate change caused by the human activity at latest decades. To collect international data base is for analysing and valuing methane gas emission based on the different country-groups, emphasizing responsibility of developing countries and highly developed countries for gas emission, also the methane emission based is on the economic sectors. China and India have share 8% of China and 2% of India respectively of cumulative CO2 emissions over the period 1900-2005, the US and the EU are responsible for more than half of emissions. Based on the estimation the global gas emissions of methane in the whole world has increased by 37% for period of 1990- 2030, as four decades, and this was 0,92% annual rate growth, while the OECD has increased the methane emission by 8,5% for this period, which means 0,21% growth rate annually. Scenario in developing countries for 2013-2020 the methane gas emission reduction could have been 8200 Mt of CO2e (Equivalent) and less than 10 US dollar per ton in more cost financing. Highly developed and developing economies (last one their methane emission share 56% in 1990, estimated 66,8% in 2030) increase their economic growth by mostly fossil energy resulted in increasing also methane gas emissions. The methane gas emission can be solved by those results-based-finance forms relevant to Kyoto Protocol, which can extend in the world by financial institutions.
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The importance of logic planning in case of IT and innovation projects
15-20Views:172In case of using methodology of project planning, in the first step we had to create a “good” logic network. We had to determine the successors and predecessors of the tasks. However, usually successors and predecessors proceed from the technology, sometimes (especially in case of IT and innovation projects) these relations between tasks are not explicit. In case of projects, especially IT and innovation projects, one of the most critical points of view is the phase of logic planning. However, it is a very important phase, only slightly supported by any kind of Project Management tools. Our goal was to support the logic planning phase. In our paper a new planning method, namely SNPM (Stochastic Network Planning Method) is introduced through some practical applications. SNPM can determine all feasible solutions with the help of stochastic variables and can also take into consideration all possible precedents. The parameters of logic relations can be changed if the impacts on the project change. With this method the most probable project scenario can be determined taking into account costs and resource demands.
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Economic aspects of an agricultural innovation – precision crop production
51-57Views:236Innovation in agriculture ensures the wide-spread use of the latest, up-to-date technology. Such new technology is precision farming in crop production, which serves as a validation of the criteria of environmental and economic sustainability. The economic applicability of precision crop production depends on several factors.Among them the following aspects must be emphasized: the size of the farm, the characteristics of the production structure, the current input-output prices and their tendencies, the investment needed for transitioning to precision technology and its capital source, the level of professional knowledge and the managerial attitudes of the farm. I have examined the economic relations between potential savings in chemicals on EU level. It has been found that after switching to precision farming, the active ingredient use for fertilizers can be reduced by 340 thousand tons at the same expected yield level in an optimistic scenario in the EU-27, while the savings in pesticide use can be 30 thousand tons (calculating with the current dose-level). If approximately 30% of the crop producing and mixed farms over 16 ESU adopt this new technology, this will diminish environmental loads by up to 10-35%. The majority of farms characterized by greater output and size can be based on their own equipment but it might as well be presumed that smaller farms can turn to precision farming not based on their own investment. They can buy the technical service from providers, they can establish producer cooperation, for example in the frame of machinery rings. At a certain farm size and farming intensity precision crop production is a real, environmentally friendly farming strategy, with the help of which the farm can reach earnings that cover at least the economic conditions of simple reproduction.
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The impact of the “greening” of the common agricultural policy on the financial situation of Polish farms
49-55Views:340This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of introducing the greening scenario of the CAP, proposed by the European Commission as an alternative for the reformed CAP after 2013. In the past, the CAP has undergone numerous transformations in response to the changing macroeconomic environment and in reaction to developments in the farming sectors in EU countries. On the 12th of October 2011, the Commission presented a set of legal proposals designed to make the CAP a more effective policy to encourage more competitive and sustainable agriculture and vibrant rural areas. The proposal brings various new elements under consideration, some of them raising strong controversies such as introducing “greening” as a component of direct payments. Changes in the direct payments scheme in line with the EC proposition include forcing adjustments in the cropping pattern and creating ecological focus areas (EFA) on 7% of the farm land ; the consequences of such a proposal on the size and structure of agricultural production, and thus on the economic performance of farms and the whole agricultural sector are uncertain. The authors analyse historical changes to the CAP with a focus on a growing importance of the environmental component of the CAP, discuss different scenarios of shaping the direct payments system and present the results of modelling the impacts of greening the CAP on the Polish farming sector with the use of the LP optimisation model. The study was based on Polish FADN data. Results show that the majority of farmers in Poland comply with the crop diversification constraint of greening. However, establishing the required EFAs and necessary diversification on farms with simplified cropping structures will have a negative impact on the volume of agricultural production as well as on farm incomes.
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Some thoughts on the repayment methods of Hungarian household forex loans
17-23Views:171Nowadays the volatility of exchange rates and the macroeconomic changes strongly affect the monthly instalments of the debtors. The growth of delayed forex loans - mostly denominated in Swiss Franc and Euro - can include a high risk, which as a part of a vicious circle can ruin Hungary’s economic situation and even the country’s external judgement. Steps were taken to handle the problem of the forex loans but their result is questionable. In this paper different repayment methods are compared in different economic scenarios. More precisely, the third edition of exchange-rate barrier and income based repayment are analysed in an optimistic realistic and pessimistic scenario. This article is aiming to quantify and interpret the difference between each repayment methods regarding different scenarios. Based on the results suggestions are made how to eliminate efficiently currency exposure from the continuously deteriorating portfolio.
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Climate change impact on crop production in Central Asian Countries
75-82Views:210Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogeneous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model is used for ex-ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The bio-economic farm model is calibrated to ten farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.
JEL classification: Q11, Q18
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