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Statistical and multi-criteria decision making analysis for consumer attitude and behavior: in case of Mongolian organic food market
31-38Views:656Nowadays, consumers have a full of knowledge on products and services, and their daily consumption of healthy and environmentally friendly products has been increasing. Therefore, businesses need to implement green marketing activities, so they need to be aware of environmental issues and consumer needs while maintaining financial sustainability and competitiveness. (Belz & Karstens, 2002). Examples are the rapid growth of organic food products, as consumers are concerned with their health and environmental issues in their day-to-day purchasing decisions. Over 20 years ago, in 1999, the market for organic food products sales was $ 15.2 billion, while sales in 2017 increased to $ 97 billion, indicating that the world's organic food market is growing rapidly. The organic food market is growing by $5 billion a year, and as of 2014, 172 countries have organic food farm land according to the “The World of Organic Agriculture”. Since the market for organic products is a new market for Mongolia, previous surveys in are relatively small. Therefore, this is aimed at conducting a study on behavioral approaches of consumers of organic food products in Ulaanbaatar. We have run statistical and multi-criteria decision making analysis based on given data of consumers. We also apply Harker’s techniques for complete and incomplete evaluation matrices which are defined from consumers decision making. Numerical examples are presented.
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Police organization in the Republic of Croatia – problems in decision making
99-102Views:281During the last few years of my police work I had a chance to speak and share opinion with my work associates about the police system in Croatia. My colleagues sometimes shared my opinion and sometimes they did not about the quality of police organization. Everyone’s conclusion was that some sort of change in the police organization has to be made; organization of the police must follow and embrace modern standards in organization and conduct. Almost each person had the same opinion about police management and decision making. Their opinion was that management is not efficient; decision making is based on chain of command and not on finding good solutions; members of the management team do not have education or creativity to be qualified managers; form is more important than the quality of work.
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The impact of boundary organizations on decision-making under uncertainty: A multi-agent simulation
13-16Views:286Modern environmental issues imply that decision-makers have the capacity to take into account possibly conflicting information from distinct domains, such as science and economics.As the development of technology increases the temporal and spatial scopes of risks, decision-makers can no longer consider economic and scientific information separately but should encourage experts to work together. Boundary organizations, institutions that cross the gap between two different domains, are able to act beyond the boundaries while remaining accountable to each side (Guston, 2001). By encouraging a flow of information across the boundaries, they permit an exchange to take place, while maintaining the authority of each domain (Cash et al., 2003; Clark et al., 2002). The goal is to simulate boundary organizations to assess their impact on the diffusion of experts’ opinions. The hypothesis tested is whether the existence of a boundary organization eases the decision-making process by reducing the number of opinions expressed. The methodology relies on a multi-agent system based on a model of continuous opinion dynamics (Deffuant et al., 2001) extended over two dimensions. The world is defined by two parameters: the uncertainty, that reflects the possible zone of discussion between experts, and the exchange, which represents the openness of discussions. Agents are described by credibility and conviction: the credibility represents how much other agents may be influenced by an agent, and the conviction represents the resistance of an agent to changing its position. Two kinds of agents are left free to interact, modifying their position in their domain (dimension) through one-to-one exchanges. Agents called borgs are introduced: open to trans-disciplinary discussion, they are able to exchange on both dimensions. The results show that the range of expressed opinions is significantly reduced, even at low levels of experts involved in the boundary organization.
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Investment analysis of plum brandy production – methodology approach
103-105Views:309The major prerequisite of successful entrepreneurship venture is quality of decision-making process. Decision in investment is the most important financial decision. It is a part of both long-term business planning process and strategic business definition. Using available investment appraisal methods, entrepreneur should make positive or negative investment decision. Within the development of the economic theory and the practice many of methods made decision-making process rational and gave the scientific and practical base for successful project evaluation.
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DETERMINING TYPES OF CONSCIOUS CONSUMERS WHO PREFER NUTRITION LABELING
Views:325One of the most important pillars of a healthy lifestyle is healthy nutritional value, in which FOP nutrition labels can support consumers in making the right decision. A healthy diet is essential for overall well-being and the prevention of many chronic diseases. Special attention must be paid to the use of FOP nutrition values in order to prevention and healthy decision-making. It is important that people can interpret the nutritional value of food as simply as possible, which FOP nutrition labels can help them with. The packaging has to provide realistic and accurate information about the product. This study describes four types of FOP nutrition labels used in the European Union: Nordic Keyhole, Nutri-Score, Traffic Lights, Nutrinform Battery. During the conducted focus group interviews, the participants got acquainted with these nutrition labels and created the personality types that they can imagine knowing and using the given FOP nutrition label.
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Climate change impact on crop production in Central Asian Countries
75-82Views:435Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogeneous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model is used for ex-ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The bio-economic farm model is calibrated to ten farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.
JEL classification: Q11, Q18
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Effect of uncertainty on farmers decision making: Case of animal manure use
7-13Views:320Due to the high levels of manure application and the poor use efficiency of manure, the European agriculture is held responsible for a considerable negative impact on surface water quality (Langeveld et al., 2007). This problem has emerged particularly in Western-European countries such as the UK, Belgium, The Netherlands and Denmark, facing a large expansion and intensification process in the livestock production since the 1960s (Van der Straeten et al., 2008). Policy measures related to the application of manure on the land encompass two major measures: emission rights, understood as the amount of nutrients which can be applied on the land, differentiated by crop and the N spreading calendars, whereby the manure can only be applied when the crop needs nutrients. The fundamental aim of this pillar is to maximising application rate while avoiding overfertilisation. Maximizing the application rate is related to the economic sustainability of the agricultural sector, by altering the manure surplus, while avoiding overfertilisation is imperative in enhancing ecological sustainability, by preventing nitrate leaching to surface and soil waters. For nitrate policy to meet its target, the farmers should not exceed their emission rights, however make optimal use of their emission right for manure. Consequently, the successful implementation of sink-related measures will strongly depend of the absorptive capacity of farmers towards new ways of nutrient management in general and of animal manures in particular.
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Enhancing the effectiveness of thermal water consumption via heat pumping
53-58Views:321Renewable technologies and the extension of their scope of usage basically has to face the general obstacles like any other novelties newly introduced to the market. In the case of environmentally friendly and clean technologies we must consider another critical aspect: the knowledge and the trust of the potential future users. To influence these people first we must extend their knowledge regarding renewable energies so they will be able to change their own approach about them. Usually the most crucial factor is the economic efficiency which determines the attitude of the majority of the users. Even the ones whose decision making process is highly based on the environmental patterns. In the case of any technology, the economic aspect is significantly influenced by its operational effectiveness. So this analysis – besides the direct economic matters – aims to examine how the performance of thermal water heating in greenhouses can be improved by using heat pumping.
JEL classification: Q42
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Multifunctionality of agriculture, public policies and scientific evidences: Some critical issues of contemporary controversies
53-58Views:287Various theoretical models of public policy analysis are used to treat situations of decision-making in which public deciders have to take into account the multifunctionality of agriculture. For some, science-society relations are not really problematical. Others acknowledge the current attempts of these policy-makers to find adequate scientific knowledge, and the difficulties they encounter. These difficulties stem partly from the very content of knowledge produced by research. Could other modes of production be more efficient? The status of the knowledge produced by these approaches is a subject of debate. Bridging the divide between science and policy more effectively is not only a question of knowledge brokerage.Accessibility and reliability of the existing evidences are also problems to be addressed. The debates around evidence-based practices may provide some landmarks in this new situation although they also emphasize the limits of the tools that can be built for this purpose.
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Distance makes the mind grow broader: an overview of psychological distance studies in the environmental and health domains
33-46Views:1663Environmental and health issues are two of the most pressing issues society faces today. People often view both environmental and health issues as psychologically distant: they believe that the problems will occur in the future, to other people, in other places and that the exact outcomes are uncertain. This paper provides an overview of studies that have investigated how the different psychological distance dimensions (viz., temporal, spatial, social and hypothetical) influence perceptions, intentions, and decision making in the environmental and health domains. This overview suggests that psychological distance indeed matters in both domains. There are indications that threat perceptions are mostly heightened when communicated or perceived as being psychologically close. However, the studies also show that a mere increase in perceived threat does not necessarily alter intentions or behavior. Moreover, with regard to the effects of psychological distance, there are neither clear differences between the environmental and the health domain nor between the four psychological distance dimensions. We discuss possible moderators that may explain the range of findings. Finally, we conclude with discussing the current stance of the literature and discuss specific research topics that are yet to be studied. As environmental and health behavior involve more than just one decision or one behavior, we suggest, for example, that future studies should investigate how psychological distance influences not only the target behavior, but related behavior as well.
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Modeling multifunctionality of agriculture at a farm-level: The case of kerkini district, Northern Greece
59-64Views:277Multifuncionality has become a central concern at both conceptual and empirical levels. In this study, a comparative evaluation of the economic performance of conventional and multifunctional farms (mainly organic farms) was conducted for the Lake Kerkini region (North Greece) with the use of mixed integer non-linear programming method. The economic performance of farms was evaluated in terms of farm income, resource allocation, production level and production mix. The results indicate that multifunctional farms have overall better economic performance and young farm managers are keener to adopt multifunctional farming than the older ones. Differences between the model results and the observed facts are attributed to the structural characteristics of the farms, along with the CAP measures and the existence of multiple objectives, beyond maximization of net farm returns.
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Influence of social media on tourism – especially among students of the University of Debrecen
105-112Views:5317Derive from the characteristic, decisions connected with travelling have high risk for the travellers therefore they try to collect more detailed information and thoroughly map decision alternatives in order to decrease uncertainty. Wide spread of the Internet and rapid technological evolution have revolutionized all industries in the World especially tourism. Platform of tourism increasingly get to the Internet nowadays which is vitally important because tourism is an informationbased and information-intensive industry. Thanks to development of the internet tourists have an opportunity to access such information and purchasing opportunities which were available with the help of intermediaries earlier. Providing wide range of possibilities, Web 2.0 fundamentally changed the way of tourists’ information search behaviour and travelling decision making. This article collects some of the most significant new applications (social networking sites, blogs) in tourism – examine them from the two sides of tourism (demand, supply) – which principally based on active participation of users. Furthermore an offline questionnaire was made in order to survey the social media usage of the student (University of Debrecen, Centre for Agricultural and Applied Economic Sciences) during their leisure travel planning process. Although findings of the study reveal that vast majority of students use social networking sites every day, they don’t really use these platforms during their trip planning process. Among students, friends and relatives are the most important and the most trustworthy source of information due to characteristics of sample.
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Knowledge transfer: a case study approach
15-19Views:320The article builds on the growing importance of knowledge as a strategic resource for maintaining the competitive advantage of a business. We illustrate one of the initiatives contributing to effective knowledge transfer by describing a case study approach which suggests how universities might assist in disseminating knowledge and enhancing industry competitiveness.The case study approach is apparently an effective way to share best practices, and with the use of appropriate ICT tools, it provides for an enormous diffusion of codified (explicit) knowledge in the industry.The example in the focus of this article describes aVirtual Portal designed as a single-point access to information and tools (case studies, decision models and software), with the emphasis on case studies (their selection, coding and use).
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MONTE CARLO SIMULATION FOR STRESS TESTING ENDOGENOUS PROFITABILITY FACTORS DURING POLYCRISIS: A CASE STUDY FROM THE POULTRY SUBSECTOR
Views:154Can historical company data help estimate future performance during economic uncertainty? This study investigates whether past business cycles can be used to estimate profitability in the context of a polycrisis – a period marked by overlapping disruptions such as avian influenza, COVID-19 trade restrictions, extreme weather events, and rising feed and energy prices. These shocks have severely impacted agro-related industries, such as poultry processing. Focusing on three Central European poultry processing companies, we use Monte Carlo simulations for stress testing their profitability for the 2023 period, aiming to support financial planning by analysing firm-specific, endogenous, management-controllable factors. Return on Sales (ROS) and Return on Equity (ROE) are used to evaluate profitability, incorporating variables such as euro exchange rates in the case of export-driven firms. Our results indicate that Company “A,” characterized by stable operations, had the lowest probability of negative ROE, while Companies “B” and “C” demonstrated greater volatility. We found that the model provides a good estimate of the factors affecting the companies’ profitability that are directly or indirectly reflected in their accounting data. Indicating that the test could be a valuable tool for supporting managerial decision-making in financial planning, though further refinements are needed to enhance accuracy.
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Arguments for the optimisation of using biomass for energy production
103-108Views:312Using biomass to produce energy is not a new idea. In the past, the by-products of energy(?) production processes or naturally grown materials were mainly used for energy production. At the same time, during the production of biomass the conventional sources of energy are used (fuels, the embodied energy of which is used in the production of the biomass and equipment, etc.) which must be taken into account when determining the net energy production. This research aims to examine how to optimise the production and use of biomass energy and its supply chain in the energetic and economic criteria system, as well as how to impact upon the managing models of the processes to the energetic and economic parameters of the supply chain; we ask what criteria characterise the natural (environmental), economic and social sustainability, and how they can be implemented e.g. within the framework of an innovation cluster. This article describes a test model, and analyses the results of the model examinations and the conditions for compliance with sustainability criteria. Arguing the environmental, economic and social sustainability among the criteria of the model for evaluation is not possible at all times by means of direct indicators. The results of the research proved that only multi-criteria optimisation models serve a proper decision-making instrument for the evaluation of biomass utilisation for energy production.
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Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production
79-85Views:307This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management in the decision support of crop production. Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays an important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well. Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop structure, by which income-sensitivity can be taken into account, but it does not reflect the behavior to risk. This deficiency can be avoided by using risk programming models. By the complementary usage of linear programming and risk programming models the optimizing and adaptive planning can be executed. It often causes a problem for the producers to decide when and how much to sell to realize a maximum turnover. The decision is mostly influenced by the selling prices, but also important factors are the financial status of the business, the amount of credit and its conditions, the stock piling opportunities and costs, and the short-term investment opportunities as well. For the resolution of the problem I set up a dynamic, simultaneous financial model by which the system-conceptual analysis of the above mentioned factors and a sound decision-making can be executed.
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AGRIPRENEURSHIP AND WOMEN EMPOWERMENT IN CONFLICT-AFFECTED RURAL NIGERIA: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE RURAL WOMEN AGRIPRENEURSHIP EMPOWERMENT INDEX (RWAEI)
Views:121The Rural Women Agripreneurship Empowerment Index (RWAEI), a multifaceted instrument for assessing the empowerment results of agripreneurial engagement among rural women in Northeastern Nigerian regions affected by conflict, is introduced in this study. The study examines how access to mechanization, farm production, hired labor, and market engagement contribute to long-term economic inclusion, decision-making authority, and community leadership in addition to job creation. It is framed within Sen's Capability Approach and Gendered Institutions Theory. The study uses confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), mediation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM) to validate the empowerment pathways and build the RWAEI model using data from 1,146 rural women in Gombe, Bauchi, and Adamawa. The findings show that the relationship between agripreneurship and empowerment is significantly mediated by labor employment and machine access.The index provides a context-specific metric for evaluating the agency and resilience of rural women, with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.812. The results back up the combination of focused capacity-building initiatives and gender-sensitive agricultural policies to increase the effect of agribusiness. By shifting from output-based models to capability-focused empowerment assessment, the study advances the conversation around agripreneurship and has wide ranging implications for poverty alleviation, post-conflict recovery, and the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
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Growth and venture capital investment potential for university spin-offs in Hungary
31-38Views:357Venture backed spin-offs represent a low proportion of companies, even of innovative companies. The research question was, whether these companies have an important role in innovation and economic growth. I present the most important indicators of innovation in connection with entrepreneurship, the measures of start-ups, mainly the high-tech ones. I describe the position of venture capital industry nowadays, detailing the classical venture capital investments, targeting high-growth potential small firms, even university spin-offs. The study presents the results of a survey made as a counterpart of an academic research team, examining spin-offs, entrepreneurs and technology transfer in the most important Hungarian universities. I found that the most important obstacles of venture capital investments in high-tech spin-offs are the information gap between demand and supply side, the lack of entrepreneurs’ willingness to give up freedom in decision making, despite of low managerial skills. The low quality of financial environment is also an obstacle of the segment.
JEL Codes: G24, M13
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