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Risk and risk management in Hungarian sheep production
61-65Views:154The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the risk attitudes of Hungarian sheep producers regarding the changes they have had to go through since the political changes of 1989–1990. Moreover, the objective of this study is to strengthen the empirical basis for risk analysis by identifying the importance of farmers’ risk attitudes. The results of a nationwide survey of over 500 sheep farmers presented a framework of risk attitudes, risk sources and applied risk management techniques of livestock producers.
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Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production
79-85Views:122This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management in the decision support of crop production. Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays an important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well. Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop structure, by which income-sensitivity can be taken into account, but it does not reflect the behavior to risk. This deficiency can be avoided by using risk programming models. By the complementary usage of linear programming and risk programming models the optimizing and adaptive planning can be executed. It often causes a problem for the producers to decide when and how much to sell to realize a maximum turnover. The decision is mostly influenced by the selling prices, but also important factors are the financial status of the business, the amount of credit and its conditions, the stock piling opportunities and costs, and the short-term investment opportunities as well. For the resolution of the problem I set up a dynamic, simultaneous financial model by which the system-conceptual analysis of the above mentioned factors and a sound decision-making can be executed.
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On corporate risk management practices in Romanian companies
85-89Views:133The purpose of this paper is to provide an understanding of corporate risk management practices in Romanian companies, by investigating the risk management approaches Romanian companies take. Our main findings are that Romanian managers are not aware of the magnitude of exposure their companies have to various types of risk – hazard, operational, financial and strategic risks, while they are able to manage rather well all these risks, even the ones that have the lowest impact on the business. At the same time, risk management systems employed by Romanian companies are rather inarticulate and based on traditional approaches towards risk management, which might represent by itself a major source of risk, given the complexity of the business environment they face.
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Produce certification and income risk management strategies of cocoa farming households in South-West Nigeria
75-79Views:175Agricultural produce certification is synonymous to farm assurance of which cocoa certification is an example; dealing with issues of Good Agricultural, Environmental and Social Practices (GAP, GEP and GSP) in cocoa production. Essentially, GAP, GEP and GSP packages had in-built mechanism that can aid farmers mitigate factors that could lead to farm income risks in cocoa production. Consequently, this study examined the influence of cocoa certification on income risks of cocoa farming households in South-west Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 180 cocoa farming households from whose heads data were obtained with interview schedule in Southwest Nigeria. Data were analyzed with Chi-square Statistic, Income Risk Management Diversification Index (IRD) and Mann-Whitney-U Test Statistic. Chi-square analysis shows that (52.3%) certified cocoa farming households employed more risk management strategies than (94.2%) uncertified cocoa farming households (p<0.01). The Mann-Whitney-U test revealed a significant difference (p>0.05) between the income risk management practices of certified and uncertified cocoa farming households. Therefore, produce certification has been helping cocoa farming households in mitigating farm income risk in cocoa production through the employment of diverse (risk) management strategies. Hence, stakeholders should intensify efforts in encouraging farming households to embrace (cocoa) produce certification.
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Political risk effects and entry mode strategies of multinational corporations (MNCS) in Nigeria
Views:466Research on the political risk and entry mode of multinational companies (MNCs) has been one of the major subjects of interest in international business terrain, and the political risk factor has constitute a major basis for explaining whether exporting, licensing, franchising, or joint venture agreement (JVA) and Foreign direct investment seems to be appropriate. As such, the study examined the effect of political risk as it affects the entry mode strategies of selected multinational corporations in Nigeria as the economy of most developing economies has been characterized as being exposed to political instability and risk. The research adopted the survey technique with inference to the expo facto method and adopted questionnaire as an instrument through content and test re-test appraisal before data were analyzed through the IBM Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. The results from the analysis indicated that franchising remains a viable option of multinationals in Nigeria and the second hypothesis indicated that licensing significantly reduces the risk exposure of multinational corporations as the licensor have lesser liability in an unstable political economy of the licensee. Based on these findings companies are recommended to adopt appropriate entry strategies in line with governmental policies and economic situation before entering foreign markets.
JEL CODES: M1, M10 -
Comparative yield risk calculations of sour cherry and pear varieties regarding risk aversion
111-116Views:114Fruit production in the world is increasing continuously. Though in the past few years China and some South-American countries have extended their fruit producing areas, Europe remains to be one of the greatest fruit producers in the world. In the middle of Europe Hungary has to face several challenges as competing for market. Since yield risk has an important role in Hungarian fruit production we investigate the yield risk of two of the most important sour cherry varieties (’Újfehértói fürtös’ and ’Oblacsinszka’) grown in Újfehértó (1984-2005), moreover, two of the most important pear varieties (’Bosc Beurre’ and ’Williams’) grown in Bánfa and Zalasárszeg (1984-2009). In the examined periods we analyse yield risk with different comparative methods such as E,V-efficiency, first and second degree as well as generalized stochastic dominance methods. We conclude that the production of sour cherry variety ’Oblacsinszka’ in Újfehértó is more preferable compared to the other sour cherry varieties and pear variety ’Bosc Beurre’ in Bánfa is more advantageous than the other pear varieties and sites.
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Commodity Indices Risk and Return Analysis Against Libor Benchmark
55-66Views:133This study analyze the risk and return characteristics of commodity index investments against the LIBOR benchmark. Commodity-based asset allocation strategies can be optimized by benchmarking the risk and return characteristics of commodity indices with LIBOR index rate. In this study, we have considered agriculture, energy, and precious metals commodity indices and LIBOR index to determine the risk and return characteristics using estimation techniques in terms of expected return, standard deviation, and geometric mean. We analyzed the publicly available daily market data from 10/9/2001 to 12/30/2016 for benchmarking commodity indices against LIBOR. S&P GSCI Agriculture Index (SGK), S&P GSCI Energy Index (SGJ), and S&P GSCI Precious Metals Index (SGP) are taken to represent each category of widely traded commodities in the regression analysis. Our study uses time series data based on daily prices. Alternative forecasting methodologies for time series analysis are used to cross-check the results. The forecasting techniques used are Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA. This methodology predicts forecasts using smoothening parameters. The empirical research has shown that the risk of each of the commodity index that represents agriculture, energy, and precious metals sector is smaller compared to its return, whereas LIBOR based interest rate benchmark shows higher risk compared to its return in recession, non-recession and overall periods.
JEL Classification: C43, G13, G15
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More insurance subsidies for European farmers – is it needed?
33-38Views:133In addition to traditional sources of uncertainties, such as market price volatility and animal and plant health-related risks, the impacts of climate change have recently become a major concern in the agricultural sector throughout the world. Insurance has been commonly proposed as a key instrument in farm risk management, and agricultural insurance schemes have become more widespread both in developed and developing countries. We conducted a case study in the UK to investigate farmers’ risk perception and willingness to pay for crop insurance by using contingent valuation method (CVM). Similarly to the experience from developing countries, we found that farmers are less willing to pay for insurance, however they do take actions to reduce their risks. While these results suggest that the provision of premium subsidies to European farmers can be justified; in order to avoid counter-productive policy outcomes, one may consider the introduction of a risk-based approach in agricultural risk management.
JEL classification: Q14
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Risks and competitiveness in agriculture with emphasis on wine sector in Croatia
11-17Views:129International competitiveness, being a key objective of each economic entity, is at the same time significantly determined by the level of risk the entity is coping. Based on the assumption that risk management is directly linked to competitiveness in agribusiness, the scope of this paper is predominantly focused on the wine agribusiness in Croatia. The aim of this paper is to encompass available literature and transfer findings to interested parties, about risks and competitiveness in agriculture, with particular reference to the wine sector. Qualitative analysis of secondary data, descriptive i.e. monographic method, deductive method and comparison of available papers from the world and Croatia were applied in the paper. There are very few companies in general, however, that tend to use their abilities to manage risks as a source of competitive advantage. These companies go beyond compliance or cost-controlling defensive approaches and take a more aggressive stance toward risk. They have realized that their risk management capabilities can be leveraged as a source of competitive advantage (Elahi, 2013). Current literature showed that such companies indirectly exist within global agribusiness. Examples of such companies in the wine sector could be found in Old World and New World wine countries. In regards with the mentioned, further research in the wine sector that would more directly link competitiveness and risk management and benefits that could be drawn from such “linkage” is needed.
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Determinants of dividend payout policy: An empirical study of banking sector of Pakistan
101-106Views:425One good way to communicate financial performance of a bank to its shareholders is the payment of dividend. The present study is attempted to explore the influence of financial efficiency, safety, risk and profitability on dividend policy using panel data of 10 commercial banks listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) for a period of 9 years between 2006 to 2014. The panel regression technique is used to analyze the data. The analysis shows a positive relationship of dividend payout ratio with safety and profitability in banking sector of Pakistan. The study identifies a negative association of dividend payout measure with financial efficiency and risk. The results show the statistically significant association of safety, risk and profitability with dividend payout ratio. Based on these findings it is concluded that safety, risk and profitability measures are relatively strong measures for defining dividend policy. The results are strongly indicating that safer the banks, the greater payout ratio the bank has. Moreover; banks with higher profitability and lower non-performing loans (NPLs) are believed to pay more dividends.
JEL code: G21, G23, G35
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Note on simple and logarithmic return
127-136Views:676In this paper we describe and clarify the definitions and the usage of the simple and logarithmic returns for financial assets like stocks or portfolios. It can be proven that the distributions of the simple and logarithmic returns are really close to each other. Because of this fact we investigate the question whether the calculated financial risk depends on the use of simple or log returns. To show the effect of the return-type on the calculations, we consider and compare the riskiness order of stocks and portfolios. For our purposes, in the empirical study we use seven Hungarian daily stock prices and for the risk calculation we focus on the following risk measures: standard deviation, semivariance, Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. The results clearly show that the riskiness order can depend on the use of the return type (i.e. log or simple return). Generally, often – due to missing data or the nature of the analysis – one has to use approximations. We also examine the effect of these approximations on the riskiness order of stocks and of portfolios. We found differences in the riskiness order using exact or approximated values. Therefore, we believe, if this is possible, exact values instead of approximated ones should be used for calculations. Additionally, it is important that one uses the same type of return within one study and one has to be aware of the possible instabilities when comparing return results.
JEL Code: C18
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Structured commodity finance
77-83Views:183Over the past years, the financial stock market – providing the capital demand that is the result of stockpiling and the characteristic strong seasonality observed in the agricultural sector – has increasingly grown and become more “used” by market participants. Its size had reached an annual value of 200 billion HUF, of which agricultural products had received the largest proportion through the various market participants (producers, integrators, traders, feed producers, mills). In the meantime, this market had become part of the competition between the commercial banks that are the largest financers of the sector, due to which the financing credit institutions had undertaken increasing risk levels, with respect to both degree of financing and the VAT financing related to stockholding. The practice of commodity financing by banks display a rather varied picture at present. Considering the exceptional degree of fall in prices and the actions of companies totally disregarding business ethics in 2008, it seems necessary to reveal the full scope of risks inherent in commodity financing. The primary aim of such an exercise is to ensure the prudent operation of refinancing activities for commercial banks. The inherent risks in trade financing – as has been proven by the experiences of previous years – are not found primarily in the goods themselves, but rather at the actual storage facility and also emerge in relation to clients, as well as the inadequate and ineffective risk management of price volatility by the financers. Therefore, the establishment of banking risk management and risk prevention techniques, including the development of new financing procedures become indispensable, minimizing all types of risks that had emerged in previous years.
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Systematic risk factors and stock return volatility
61-70Views:465This study analyzes the transmission of systematic risk exhaling from macroeconomic fundamentals to volatility of stock market by using auto regressive generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedastic (AR-GARCH) and vector auto regressive (VAR) models. Systematic risk factors used in this study are industrial production, real interest rate, inflation, money supply and exchange rate from 2000-2014. Results indicate that there exists relationship among the volatility of macroeconomic factors and that of stock returns in Pakistan. The relationship among the volatility of macroeconomic variables and that of stock returns is bidirectional; both affect each other in different dynamics.
JEL code: C32, C58, G11, G12
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Efficiency analysis of dairy farms in the Northern Great Plain region using deterministic and stochastic DEA models
113-122Views:128Running any dairy enterprise is a risky activity: the profitability of the enterprise is affected by the price fluctuation of feed and animal health products from inputs, as well as by the fluctuation of end-product prices. Under these circumstances, it is essential for the cattle breeders, in order to survive, to harness the reserves in management as effectively as possible. In this research the efficiency and risk of 32 sample dairy farms were analysed in the Northern Great Plain Region from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) by applying classical Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and stochastic DEA models. The choice of this method is justified by the fact that there was not such an available reliable database by which production functions could have been defined, and DEA makes possible to manage simultaneously some inputs and outputs, i.e. complex decision problems. By using DEA, the sources that cause shortfall on inefficient farms can be identified, analysed and quantified, so corporate decision support can be reinforced successfully. A disadvantage of the classical DEA model is that the stochastic factors of farming cannot be treated either on the side of inputs or outputs; therefore, their results can be adopted with reservations, especially in agricultural models. This may have been because we could not discover that many agricultural applications. Considering the price of inputs and outputs as probability variables, 5000 simulation runs have been done in this research. As a result, it can be stated that at which intervals of the input and output factors can become competitive and the fluctuation of these factors can cause what level of risk at each farm.
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NEW METHODS FOR STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT CAUSED BY OPEN INNOVATION IN RED BIOTECHNOLOGY
Views:120Red (pharmaceutical) biotechnology is currently one of the most innovative industries. A good example of this is the fight to develop a vaccine against the COVID-19 pandemic, or even the incredible dynamism of the development of anti-cancer drugs.Innovations always carry uncertainty within them - the authors of this article see and experience this every day during their managerial work related to R&D in the biotechnology sector. Decisions often have to be made on uncertain grounds, with incomplete information. Mapping all these anomalies and their root causes is also necessary according to what has been experienced in various organizations, but at the same time it is a very interesting and challenging task. One of the possible means of sharing and reducing the risk is the so-called Open innovation, which required innovations in the fields of technical, industrial rights protection, privacy protection, but also cooperation platforms.All this required a new organizational and structural operation from the actors. This means that technological innovation attracts and results in project innovations. We assume that organizational development and structural innovations were also achieved through these transfers. We are trying to validate this hypothesis with the help of interviews with professionals.Our thesis: the challenges arising from the special innovation of red biotech also caused and necessitated the innovation of organizational structures and the development of its organizational and structural functioning, to which open innovation gave outstanding help.
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Problems with the application of conventional financial ratios in corporate risk measurement
5-12Views:183One of the enterprises’ biggest fears is a potential bankruptcy situation. This is the reason there are a lot of people who try to anticipate it. To be aware of the actual and expected future situation of a company is in the interest of all those who are related. This topic has come to the fore after the economic and financial crisis of 2008. Companies, their creditors and internal stakeholders should be aware of the liquidity and solvency situation of a given company, because its deterioration can cause serious problems for all of them. During the financial analysis of companies, the problem of liquidity indicators showing bad signals can often be experienced, although there is no visible sign of difficulty in their operation. In other cases, the situation is just the opposite, i.e. liquidity ratios are adequate, but still, the business faces payment issues. How could it happen? The purpose of this study is to present indicators which can measure more accurately and reliably the actual liquidity position of a company.
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The responsibility of marketing and legislation in childhood obesity
85-90Views:130The purchasing power of youth is considerable; they are the market of the future. , the young generation is the most influenced and vulnerable segment of the economy. The greatest problem of the influencing of our children is the rising cost of childhood obesity. The health care system cannot keep up with the pressure of obesity. Today, the risk of obesity is a bigger problem than smoking or alcoholism. The greatest problem is that youth underestimates the cost and risk of consumption of foods with high levels of fats, sugar and/or salt.
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Investment analysis of a piglet producer farm – a Hungarian case study
141-152Views:253The pig population in Hungary was about 8 million in 1990, while this number dropped to only 2.8 million by 2018. The previously so successful integrated domestic pig farming has almost completely disappeared and most of the smaller farms still operating in the 1990s are no longer functioning. At present, a process of concentration can be observed, which was accompanied by the further specialization of pig farming. The main profile of most pig farms is fattening, but there is a smaller number of farms in Hungary today specialized for piglet production, the successful operation of which requires significantly more expertise and more complex technology.
The main aim of this study is to present the production and economic indicators of a pig farm specialized in piglet production in Hungary as a result of a greenfield investment in the current economic environment, on a case study basis. For this purpose, an economic simulation was prepared based on primary data collection, operating on a deterministic basis, modelling the production and economic processes of the farm. The performed calculation does not derive the economic indicators of the activity from accounting records, but assigns the prices of natural inputs used on the basis of technological data. Primary data and information collection (e.g. technological data, input and output prices, unit cost items, etc.) took place between 2018-2019.
At the purchase prices of pigs in the last two years, which have increased significantly due to the African Swine Fever (ASF), the majority of pig farms in Hungary have an outstanding profit-making capacity. The physical efficiency indicators of the analysed pig farm are almost identical to the average data of such farms in the Netherlands, which has one of the most developed pig industry. The income of the examined pig farm at farm level is about 734 thousand EUR, i.e. 232 EUR per sow. Moreover, this activity is profitable even without subsidies. As a result, the greenfield investment pays off in the 8th year by default (average scenario). The investment has a Net Present Value (NPVr=3%) of EUR 2,609 thousand for 10 years, an Internal Rate of Return of 8.5%, and a Profitability Index (PIr=3%) of 1.3. At the same time, risk factors such as sales prices, output and capacity utilization, and feed costs should be taken into consideration as in extreme cases the return on investment may be unfavourable (pessimistic scenario).
JEL code: D24, M11, Q12
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Regulatory challenges of innovation in food and agriculture market authorization requirements for new foods
137-142Views:136Regulatory authorities face the challenge to strike a fair balance between the interests of consumers to ensure the safety of innovative foods and agricultural products and the interest of innovative businesses.Worldwide prior authorization schemes are applied. This contribution explores characteristics, pros and cons of such schemes. It identifies concerns but also best practices that may contribute to improving food safety without unduly hampering innovation.
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Climate change impact on crop production in Central Asian Countries
75-82Views:191Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogeneous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model is used for ex-ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The bio-economic farm model is calibrated to ten farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.
JEL classification: Q11, Q18
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Changes in costs of precision nutrition depending on crop rotation
59-63Views:126By applying precision nutrition the yield heterogeneity owing to the different features of soil spots can be taken into consideration. The planned and sprayed fertilizer adjusted to the expected yield rendered to soil spots can reduce the negative effects of artificial chemicals on soil and environment. The aim of this paper is to examine how the quantity and the cost of fertilizer (material and operational) will change on spot level on a certain plot during a five-year period, considering crop rotation, too. The following crops are in the rotation: winter wheat, corn and sunflower. Precision nutrition can be used in all the cultures mentioned above. Our earlier (static) model calculations have revealed that the threshold price of precision production was lower by 31% than in conventional technology. So it is necessary to explore for a longer period how the profitability of precision nutrition reacts to the changes in input and yield prices in different crops. The risk receptivity of precision nutrition can be characterized with the help of price sensitive analyses. Effects on profitability of other technological elements are not analysed in this paper.
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Influence of social media on tourism – especially among students of the University of Debrecen
105-112Views:4150Derive from the characteristic, decisions connected with travelling have high risk for the travellers therefore they try to collect more detailed information and thoroughly map decision alternatives in order to decrease uncertainty. Wide spread of the Internet and rapid technological evolution have revolutionized all industries in the World especially tourism. Platform of tourism increasingly get to the Internet nowadays which is vitally important because tourism is an informationbased and information-intensive industry. Thanks to development of the internet tourists have an opportunity to access such information and purchasing opportunities which were available with the help of intermediaries earlier. Providing wide range of possibilities, Web 2.0 fundamentally changed the way of tourists’ information search behaviour and travelling decision making. This article collects some of the most significant new applications (social networking sites, blogs) in tourism – examine them from the two sides of tourism (demand, supply) – which principally based on active participation of users. Furthermore an offline questionnaire was made in order to survey the social media usage of the student (University of Debrecen, Centre for Agricultural and Applied Economic Sciences) during their leisure travel planning process. Although findings of the study reveal that vast majority of students use social networking sites every day, they don’t really use these platforms during their trip planning process. Among students, friends and relatives are the most important and the most trustworthy source of information due to characteristics of sample.
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Characteristics of physical activity at the university of Debrecen
115-120Views:196The assessment of physical activity is a much-researched field. Physical inactivity has negative consequences. In the development of diseases, a key risk factor is insufficient exercise. Emphasizing the relation between physical activity and health is a constantly discussed matter. UD-FCSNE students will play a key role in educating children for a healthy lifestyle. They will become teachers and specialists. Mapping students’ motives concerning physical activity, we can see the order of motive factors and the factors influencing the different age groups. The majority of students exercise less than 30 minutes per day. Most of them do leisure sporting. To increase physical activity we must provide leisure sporting facilities, based on the population’s needs. Maintaining and increasing fitness are chief motivational factors, unlike expectations and competition. The order of motives is significantly different. These differences occurred in five categories. There is a difference in physical activity between full and part-time students.
JEL code: Z2
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A study of the causes leading to the liquidation of agricultural enterprises
123-127Views:118The viability of agricultural enterprises is of paramount importance. Their liquidation has harmful effects on broad strata of society. The aim of my research is therefore to analyze the leading causes of liquidation of agricultural enterprises. The research was led on 17 agricultural enterprises. This may help in the prevention and treatment of their insolvency. The research results show that a long-term agricultural production is not sustainable with a low equity capital. For the long-term maintenance it is necessary that the investors establish the enterprise with a capital according to the type of the production.The loan can not replacethe entrepreneursown resources,it is only complementaryto it.Theownersof agriculturalbusinessesshould strive to ensurethatthe paid-up share capital is kept in the firm, because in case of payment difficulties, this can be an adequate financial provision. Companies with financial problems can avoid liquidation if the crisis is detected in time by the leaders. However, the owners must organize the management of the enterprise so that it should have the necessary technical and economic knowledge. With an appropriate management, and use of means of crisis management, the liquidation of the enterprise can be prevented.
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Diversification strategies and their impact on farm performance
57-61Views:134The objective of this study is to identify factors determining the economic performance of agricultural holdings in Italy, with specific attention to the impact of the adoption of on-farm diversification strategies, namely income diversification and product differentiation. The adoption of these kinds of strategies has been increasingly recognised as a viable business option in agriculture as they allow better allocation of farm resources and an increase in the quota of value added retained on farms and therefore not passed on to other agents operating at the end of the food supply chain. By using a panel of professional Italian farms over the time period of 2003-2009, we estimate random effect, ordinary least square and quantile regression models to estimate the impact of income diversification and product differentiation strategies on the levels of farm income per unit of labour income. Our findings show that scale economies are important positive determinants of farm economic performance. On the contrary, when the family play an important role in the farm business, economic performance is worse. Finally, we do not find evidence of a statistically significant impact of the adoption of income diversification and product differentiation strategies. This latter result may be interpreted as a signal that farms use these strategies as risk management tools rather than as income increasing ones.
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