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Risk and risk management in Hungarian sheep production
61-65

The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the risk attitudes of Hungarian sheep producers regarding the changes they have had to go through since the political changes of 1989–1990. Moreover, the objective of this study is to strengthen the empirical basis for risk analysis by identifying the importance of farmers’ risk attitudes. The results of a nationwide survey of over 500 sheep farmers presented a framework of risk attitudes, risk sources and applied risk management techniques of livestock producers.

114
91
Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production
79-85

This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management in the decision support of crop production. Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays an important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well. Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop structure, by which income-sensitivity can be taken into account, but it does not reflect the behavior to risk. This deficiency can be avoided by using risk programming models. By the complementary usage of linear programming and risk programming models the optimizing and adaptive planning can be executed. It often causes a problem for the producers to decide when and how much to sell to realize a maximum turnover. The decision is mostly influenced by the selling prices, but also important factors are the financial status of the business, the amount of credit and its conditions, the stock piling opportunities and costs, and the short-term investment opportunities as well. For the resolution of the problem I set up a dynamic, simultaneous financial model by which the system-conceptual analysis of the above mentioned factors and a sound decision-making can be executed.

99
33
On corporate risk management practices in Romanian companies
85-89

The purpose of this paper is to provide an understanding of corporate risk management practices in Romanian companies, by investigating the risk management approaches Romanian companies take. Our main findings are that Romanian managers are not aware of the magnitude of exposure their companies have to various types of risk – hazard, operational, financial and strategic risks, while they are able to manage rather well all these risks, even the ones that have the lowest impact on the business. At the same time, risk management systems employed by Romanian companies are rather inarticulate and based on traditional approaches towards risk management, which might represent by itself a major source of risk, given the complexity of the business environment they face.

97
29
Produce certification and income risk management strategies of cocoa farming households in South-West Nigeria
75-79

Agricultural produce certification is synonymous to farm assurance of which cocoa certification is an example; dealing with issues of Good Agricultural, Environmental and Social Practices (GAP, GEP and GSP) in cocoa production. Essentially, GAP, GEP and GSP packages had in-built mechanism that can aid farmers mitigate factors that could lead to farm income risks in cocoa production. Consequently, this study examined the influence of cocoa certification on income risks of cocoa farming households in South-west Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 180 cocoa farming households from whose heads data were obtained with interview schedule in Southwest Nigeria. Data were analyzed with Chi-square Statistic, Income Risk Management Diversification Index (IRD) and Mann-Whitney-U Test Statistic. Chi-square analysis shows that (52.3%) certified cocoa farming households employed more risk management strategies than (94.2%) uncertified cocoa farming households (p<0.01). The Mann-Whitney-U test revealed a significant difference (p>0.05) between the income risk management practices of certified and uncertified cocoa farming households. Therefore, produce certification has been helping cocoa farming households in mitigating farm income risk in cocoa production through the employment of diverse (risk) management strategies. Hence, stakeholders should intensify efforts in encouraging farming households to embrace (cocoa) produce certification.

121
51
Political risk effects and entry mode strategies of multinational corporations (MNCS) in Nigeria

Research on the political risk and entry mode of multinational companies (MNCs) has been one of the major subjects of interest in international business terrain, and the political risk factor has constitute a major basis for explaining whether exporting, licensing, franchising, or joint venture agreement (JVA) and Foreign direct investment seems to be appropriate. As such, the study examined the effect of political risk as it affects the entry mode strategies of selected multinational corporations in Nigeria as the economy of most developing economies has been characterized as being exposed to political instability and risk. The research adopted the survey technique with inference to the expo facto method and adopted questionnaire as an instrument through content and test re-test appraisal before data were analyzed through the IBM Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. The results from the analysis indicated that franchising remains a viable option of multinationals in Nigeria and the second hypothesis indicated that licensing significantly reduces the risk exposure of multinational corporations as the licensor have lesser liability in an unstable political economy of the licensee. Based on these findings companies are recommended to adopt appropriate entry strategies in line with governmental policies and economic situation before entering foreign markets.

JEL CODES: M1, M10
226
18
Comparative yield risk calculations of sour cherry and pear varieties regarding risk aversion
111-116

Fruit production in the world is increasing continuously. Though in the past few years China and some South-American countries have extended their fruit producing areas, Europe remains to be one of the greatest fruit producers in the world. In the middle of Europe Hungary has to face several challenges as competing for market. Since yield risk has an important role in Hungarian fruit production we investigate the yield risk of two of the most important sour cherry varieties (’Újfehértói fürtös’ and ’Oblacsinszka’) grown in Újfehértó (1984-2005), moreover, two of the most important pear varieties (’Bosc Beurre’ and ’Williams’) grown in Bánfa and Zalasárszeg (1984-2009). In the examined periods we analyse yield risk with different comparative methods such as E,V-efficiency, first and second degree as well as generalized stochastic dominance methods. We conclude that the production of sour cherry variety ’Oblacsinszka’ in Újfehértó is more preferable compared to the other sour cherry varieties and pear variety ’Bosc Beurre’ in Bánfa is more advantageous than the other pear varieties and sites.

88
35
Commodity Indices Risk and Return Analysis Against Libor Benchmark
55-66

This study analyze the risk and return characteristics of commodity index investments against the LIBOR benchmark. Commodity-based asset allocation strategies can be optimized by benchmarking the risk and return characteristics of commodity indices with LIBOR index rate. In this study, we have considered agriculture, energy, and precious metals commodity indices and LIBOR index to determine the risk and return characteristics using estimation techniques in terms of expected return, standard deviation, and geometric mean. We analyzed the publicly available daily market data from 10/9/2001 to 12/30/2016 for benchmarking commodity indices against LIBOR. S&P GSCI Agriculture Index (SGK), S&P GSCI Energy Index (SGJ), and S&P GSCI Precious Metals Index (SGP) are taken to represent each category of widely traded commodities in the regression analysis. Our study uses time series data based on daily prices. Alternative forecasting methodologies for time series analysis are used to cross-check the results. The forecasting techniques used are Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA. This methodology predicts forecasts using smoothening parameters. The empirical research has shown that the risk of each of the commodity index that represents agriculture, energy, and precious metals sector is smaller compared to its return, whereas LIBOR based interest rate benchmark shows higher risk compared to its return in recession, non-recession and overall periods.

JEL Classification: C43, G13, G15

102
124
More insurance subsidies for European farmers – is it needed?
33-38

In addition to traditional sources of uncertainties, such as market price volatility and animal and plant health-related risks, the impacts of climate change have recently become a major concern in the agricultural sector throughout the world. Insurance has been commonly proposed as a key instrument in farm risk management, and agricultural insurance schemes have become more widespread both in developed and developing countries. We conducted a case study in the UK to investigate farmers’ risk perception and willingness to pay for crop insurance by using contingent valuation method (CVM). Similarly to the experience from developing countries, we found that farmers are less willing to pay for insurance, however they do take actions to reduce their risks. While these results suggest that the provision of premium subsidies to European farmers can be justified; in order to avoid counter-productive policy outcomes, one may consider the introduction of a risk-based approach in agricultural risk management.

JEL classification: Q14

108
48
Risks and competitiveness in agriculture with emphasis on wine sector in Croatia
11-17

International competitiveness, being a key objective of each economic entity, is at the same time significantly determined by the level of risk the entity is coping. Based on the assumption that risk management is directly linked to competitiveness in agribusiness, the scope of this paper is predominantly focused on the wine agribusiness in Croatia. The aim of this paper is to encompass available literature and transfer findings to interested parties, about risks and competitiveness in agriculture, with particular reference to the wine sector. Qualitative analysis of secondary data, descriptive i.e. monographic method, deductive method and comparison of available papers from the world and Croatia were applied in the paper. There are very few companies in general, however, that tend to use their abilities to manage risks as a source of competitive advantage. These companies go beyond compliance or cost-controlling defensive approaches and take a more aggressive stance toward risk. They have realized that their risk management capabilities can be leveraged as a source of competitive advantage (Elahi, 2013). Current literature showed that such companies indirectly exist within global agribusiness. Examples of such companies in the wine sector could be found in Old World and New World wine countries. In regards with the mentioned, further research in the wine sector that would more directly link competitiveness and risk management and benefits that could be drawn from such “linkage” is needed.

99
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Determinants of dividend payout policy: An empirical study of banking sector of Pakistan
101-106

One good way to communicate financial performance of a bank to its shareholders is the payment of dividend. The present study is attempted to explore the influence of financial efficiency, safety, risk and profitability on dividend policy using panel data of 10 commercial banks listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) for a period of 9 years between 2006 to 2014. The panel regression technique is used to analyze the data. The analysis shows a positive relationship of dividend payout ratio with safety and profitability in banking sector of Pakistan. The study identifies a negative association of dividend payout measure with financial efficiency and risk. The results show the statistically significant association of safety, risk and profitability with dividend payout ratio. Based on these findings it is concluded that safety, risk and profitability measures are relatively strong measures for defining dividend policy. The results are strongly indicating that safer the banks, the greater payout ratio the bank has. Moreover; banks with higher profitability and lower non-performing loans (NPLs) are believed to pay more dividends.

JEL code: G21, G23, G35

215
153
Note on simple and logarithmic return
127-136

In this paper we describe and clarify the definitions and the usage of the simple and logarithmic returns for financial assets like stocks or portfolios. It can be proven that the distributions of the simple and logarithmic returns are really close to each other. Because of this fact we investigate the question whether the calculated financial risk depends on the use of simple or log returns. To show the effect of the return-type on the calculations, we consider and compare the riskiness order of stocks and portfolios. For our purposes, in the empirical study we use seven Hungarian daily stock prices and for the risk calculation we focus on the following risk measures: standard deviation, semivariance, Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. The results clearly show that the riskiness order can depend on the use of the return type (i.e. log or simple return). Generally, often – due to missing data or the nature of the analysis – one has to use approximations. We also examine the effect of these approximations on the riskiness order of stocks and of portfolios. We found differences in the riskiness order using exact or approximated values. Therefore, we believe, if this is possible, exact values instead of approximated ones should be used for calculations. Additionally, it is important that one uses the same type of return within one study and one has to be aware of the possible instabilities when comparing return results.

JEL Code: C18

339
105
Structured commodity finance
77-83

Over the past years, the financial stock market – providing the capital demand that is the result of stockpiling and the characteristic strong seasonality observed in the agricultural sector – has increasingly grown and become more “used” by market participants. Its size had reached an annual value of 200 billion HUF, of which agricultural products had received the largest proportion through the various market participants (producers, integrators, traders, feed producers, mills). In the meantime, this market had become part of the competition between the commercial banks that are the largest financers of the sector, due to which the financing credit institutions had undertaken increasing risk levels, with respect to both degree of financing and the VAT financing related to stockholding. The practice of commodity financing by banks display a rather varied picture at present. Considering the exceptional degree of fall in prices and the actions of companies totally disregarding business ethics in 2008, it seems necessary to reveal the full scope of risks inherent in commodity financing. The primary aim of such an exercise is to ensure the prudent operation of refinancing activities for commercial banks. The inherent risks in trade financing – as has been proven by the experiences of previous years – are not found primarily in the goods themselves, but rather at the actual storage facility and also emerge in relation to clients, as well as the inadequate and ineffective risk management of price volatility by the financers. Therefore, the establishment of banking risk management and risk prevention techniques, including the development of new financing procedures become indispensable, minimizing all types of risks that had emerged in previous years.

122
92
Systematic risk factors and stock return volatility
61-70

This study analyzes the transmission of systematic risk exhaling from macroeconomic fundamentals to volatility of stock market by using auto regressive generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedastic (AR-GARCH) and vector auto regressive (VAR) models. Systematic risk factors used in this study are industrial production, real interest rate, inflation, money supply and exchange rate from 2000-2014. Results indicate that there exists relationship among the volatility of macroeconomic factors and that of stock returns in Pakistan. The relationship among the volatility of macroeconomic variables and that of stock returns is bidirectional; both affect each other in different dynamics.

JEL code: C32, C58, G11, G12

279
234
Efficiency analysis of dairy farms in the Northern Great Plain region using deterministic and stochastic DEA models
113-122

Running any dairy enterprise is a risky activity: the profitability of the enterprise is affected by the price fluctuation of feed and animal health products from inputs, as well as by the fluctuation of end-product prices. Under these circumstances, it is essential for the cattle breeders, in order to survive, to harness the reserves in management as effectively as possible. In this research the efficiency and risk of 32 sample dairy farms were analysed in the Northern Great Plain Region from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) by applying classical Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and stochastic DEA models. The choice of this method is justified by the fact that there was not such an available reliable database by which production functions could have been defined, and DEA makes possible to manage simultaneously some inputs and outputs, i.e. complex decision problems. By using DEA, the sources that cause shortfall on inefficient farms can be identified, analysed and quantified, so corporate decision support can be reinforced successfully. A disadvantage of the classical DEA model is that the stochastic factors of farming cannot be treated either on the side of inputs or outputs; therefore, their results can be adopted with reservations, especially in agricultural models. This may have been because we could not discover that many agricultural applications. Considering the price of inputs and outputs as probability variables, 5000 simulation runs have been done in this research. As a result, it can be stated that at which intervals of the input and output factors can become competitive and the fluctuation of these factors can cause what level of risk at each farm.

105
34
Problems with the application of conventional financial ratios in corporate risk measurement
5-12

One of the enterprises’ biggest fears is a potential bankruptcy situation. This is the reason there are a lot of people who try to anticipate it. To be aware of the actual and expected future situation of a company is in the interest of all those who are related. This topic has come to the fore after the economic and financial crisis of 2008. Companies, their creditors and internal stakeholders should be aware of the liquidity and solvency situation of a given company, because its deterioration can cause serious problems for all of them. During the financial analysis of companies, the problem of liquidity indicators showing bad signals can often be experienced, although there is no visible sign of difficulty in their operation. In other cases, the situation is just the opposite, i.e. liquidity ratios are adequate, but still, the business faces payment issues. How could it happen? The purpose of this study is to present indicators which can measure more accurately and reliably the actual liquidity position of a company.

133
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The responsibility of marketing and legislation in childhood obesity
85-90

The purchasing power of youth is considerable; they are the market of the future. , the young generation is the most influenced and vulnerable segment of the economy. The greatest problem of the influencing of our children is the rising cost of childhood obesity. The health care system cannot keep up with the pressure of obesity. Today, the risk of obesity is a bigger problem than smoking or alcoholism. The greatest problem is that youth underestimates the cost and risk of consumption of foods with high levels of fats, sugar and/or salt.

109
40
An Agro-Food Waste Commercial Utilisation Behaviour Lens among Urban Agro-producer Households in a Developing Economy

Small-urban farm businesses utilise agro-food waste emanating from own production and other levels of food supply chain activities to supplement conventional inputs. Out of these, the food produce surplus from agro-producer households is offloaded to the urban market. As such, the aim of the study was to assess the determinants of agro-food waste commercial utilisation behaviour among urban agro-producer households. An electronically-designed research tool was administered to 456 agro-producer households to collect self-reported estimates of their agro-food waste utilisation behaviour. Results indicated higher budget share towards conventional inputs (0.73) compared to agro-food waste (0.27) but the observed suboptimal production intensification could be rectified with increased use of agro-food waste. Structural equation modelling results indicated that attitude, environmental awareness and concern, motivation and perceived moral obligation had positive significant influence on commercial utilisation intention. The adopted constructs for the model could explain 79.1% of the commercial utilisation behaviour variance. Furthermore, commercial utilisation intention, risk perceptions and perceived behavioural control had significant influence on the commercial utilisation behaviour. Findings are an indicator that agro-food waste commercial utilisation intentions among small-urban farm businesses would likely transition to commercial utilisation behaviour. Since behaviour can be learnt and developed, aspects that contribute to commercial utilisation intentions and behaviour would need to be stimulated. As a strategy of reducing the collectible waste, urban authorities may introduce tailor-made programs meant to stimulate commercial utilisation intention and behaviour in small-urban farm businesses. In valuation of agro-food waste, methodologies that could factor in utility would provide more precise insights in its commercial utilisation.   

106
10
Food and nutrition security as gendered social practice
59-66

In many parts of the world, the food security of households and the nutrition security of individual household members, in particular that of children, are still at risk, in spite of the progress made in combatting hunger at the global level. The prevailing opinion among scientists and development practioners alike is that women’s empowerment is the key to household food security and good nutrition of children. Similarly, it is thought that gender inequalities manifest themselves in dietary discrimination of women resulting in their lesser access to sufficient and nutritious food. To investigate the credibility of these ‘common truths’, empirical evidence on women’s roles in the social practices that aim at realizing household food security and good family nutrition was reviewed. It can be concluded that women definitely yield and wield power through their involvement in and responsibility for these practices, but that – at the same time – enhancing women’s capabilities by improved access to critical resources would benefit their household’s food security and their children’s nutrition. Furthermore, except for the region of South Asia, gender inequalities do not visibly result in a gender gap in nutrition, although women’s specific dietary needs in relation to pregnancy and motherhood are not always recognized.

198
89
Price risk management using by a specified futures model
97-101

The principal achievement of this paper is to introduce the operation of a specified ‘Futures’ model and it’s practice for decision makers of financial institutes through an example based on the price data’s of grain futures market from EU assessment 2004 to these days in Hungary. Based on a theoretical foundation, the calculation model was developed in order to assist short and long-term marketing decisions. The economical basis of the model is the combinative use of two market institutions: public warehousing and futures market. This electronically developed and working model ‘using excel background ‘allows all of the participants of the market: producers, consumers,banks and traders, to use this model in immediate calculations. In addition it helps in order to establish the own business strategy. The model can be used to analyze price influencing factors therefore; it can also be used for policy-making decisions for market participants as well as banks dealing with trade financing activity.

75
79
Mitigation activities to reduce emission of agricultural greenhouse gases in Hungary
115-119

Pressure on natural resources and the global environment have been identified as the most important challenges to maintain prosperity and improve environmental care. Agriculture is responsible for only a small proportion of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but the sector is more closely associated with emissions of other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The global warming potential of agricultural activities defined as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in CO2 equivalents is relatively low in Hungary, when calculated per land area. However this difference decline, when a GHG emission is calculated per product unit, as yields are lower then in West European countries. Environmental load caused by agriculture is also low in Hungary, where increasing part of EU resources are used for the long-term preservation of natural resources and for the raising of awareness of sustainable farming. The strength of the environmental situation of Hungary, consist of several elements, such as the rich bio-diversity, the significant size of territories falling under natural protection, the extent and importance of forests and the low environmental load from crop production. Among the weaknesses the nitrate load of the animal husbandry farms, the increasing water and wind erosion, the soil compaction and degradation have to be taken into consideration. Climate change has high risk potential and the mitigation activities of the New Hungary Rural Development Programme (HRDP) are investigated in this paper with the aim to increase mitigation activities in rural area and reduce the causes of climate change.

 

107
48
Relationship between the qualification and labour market situation of disabled workers in Hungary
23-25

My PhD research focuses on special rehabilitation firms (they are specialised to employ disabled people) and their employees. Two questionnaires for the above mentioned firms and their employees were created in order to gather information on their activities as well as to explore the relationship between the firms and their employees. Altogether 1030 employees and 109 employers filled in the questionnaires. The current study shows the results of this survey. It can be stated that this paper shows the risk of finding a workplace after a certain time period. According to the latest trends I analyse the labour market situation of people living with disabilities with survival analysis. The survival analysis is able to manage partial information, as well. After summarizing all claims of participants we can make an impression in this area and demonstrate the problems for the labour market generally. I use the Log-rank, Breslow and Tahane-Ware probe.

92
32
Some uses, underuses, and misuses of the findings of disparities between people’s valuations of gains and losses
7-13

The well-known behavioural finding that losses have a greater impact on people’s well-being than gains, has important implications for the study of individual and collective choices, as well as the ways in which analyses are carried out -- many more than have yet been seriously considered. It also has many for analysts’ use of such tools as price elasticities, discount rates, value of statistical lives, risk analysis, and the like. A greater recognition of the behavioral findings would likely lead to reductions of the biases in many present analyses.

145
34
Economics of GM crop cultivation
7-19

Asynchronous approval of new GM crops across international jurisdictions is of growing concern due to its potential impact on global trade. Different countries have different authorisation procedures and, even if regulatory dossiers are submitted at the same time, approval is not given simultaneously (in some cases, delays can even amount to years). For instance, by mid-2009 over 40 transgenic events were approved or close to approval elsewhere but not yet approved – or not even submitted – in the EU.Yet, like some other jurisdictions,the EU also operates a zero-tolerance policy to even the smallest traces of nationally unapproved GM crops (so-called low-level presence). The resultant rejection of agricultural imports has already caused high economic losses and threatens to disrupt global agri-food supply chains. The risk that feed supplies could be affected by a low-level presence of non-EU approved GM material could be resolved if the EU allowed a tolerance for this, rather than operating a strict zero tolerance as now. The Commission has undertaken to come forward with a nonlegislative technical solution to address the difficulties created by a strict zero tolerance policy. To what extent this would be helpful will depend on the nature of the proposed solution.

129
41
The effects of climate change on cereals yield of production and food security in Gambia
83-92

Increasingly, empirical evidences are substantiating the effects of climate change on agricultural production is a reality. In the early part of the 20th century many were skeptical about the so-called climate change that is due to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) defines climate change as follows: “climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean or variability of its properties and that persists for extended periods, typically decades or longer” This study analyses the impact of climate change on cereals production (millet and maize) in the Gambia using a time series data for a period of 46 years (1960 – 2013) at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate (temperatures and rainfall,) and non-climate variables fertilizer, area planted respectively and yield. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) How climate change affects the expected cereals (Millet and Maize) output or yield in the Gambia. (2) How the level of output risk within cereals (Millet and Maize) farming is affected? In order to achieve these set objectives, the paper will adopt Just and Pope modified Ricardian production functions for climate change impact assessments (e.g., Chen et al. 2004), the paper will also control for the impacts of regular input factors in the production process. The study used a data set for the Gambia comprising variables relevant for cereals production and climate information from 1960 through 2013. There is strong evidence that climate will affects Maize and Millet; according to the analysis 77% and 44% of the variability in the yield of Maize and Millet respectively is explained by the climate and non-climate variables included in the model. Given the effects of climate variables on cereals production, and increasing climate change vulnerabilities on other food production section, the result of this paper will add voice to the growing call for policy makers to step up funding in research and development in climate change adaptation and mitigation.

JEL classification: Q54

523
274
Total Quality Management in the food industry – Current situation and potential in Germany
83-87

The requirements in terms of information availability, risk precaution and control in the food industry continue to increase. In this context the interest of companies in the Total Quality Management (TQM) approach is also increasing. This development attracts notice to Business Excellence and connected systems. Similarly, various quality management tools and techniques are available. In this regard a research project analyzed to what extent the companies in the food industry apply different activities of the TQM scheme. The research calculates the importance that the companies attach to different requirements of TQM and how they implement them. Additionally, statistical analysis provides evidence that there is a positive correlation between the implementation of the activities of TQM and the medium- to longterm success of a company. In this article the methodology and major findings of this research project are presented.

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