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Global tendencies in pork meat - production, trade and consumption
105-111Views:1818World meat production is anticipated to stagnate in 2016, rising by a mere 0.3% to 320.7 million tonnes. Increases in output are expected in the United States, Brazil, the EU, India and the Russian Federation, while reduced production is foreseen for China, Australia and South Africa. Global meat trade is forecast to recover in 2016, growing by 2.8% to 30.6 million tonnes, which would represent a return to trend, after a fall in 2015. World production of pig meat in 2016 is forecast to decrease marginally, by 0.7% to 116.4 million tonnes, thus registering a second year of virtual stagnation. As in 2015, lower output in China, which accounts for almost half the world total, is the main reason for the slowdown. An unfavourable feed-pork price ratio in the country and new environmental regulations have caused farmers to reduce breeding sows, stalling growth. China’s production is projected to be 54 million tonnes, down 2.5% from the previous year. Elsewhere in Asia, the Philippines and Vietnam could boost output. Also, production in Japan and the Republic of Korea may expand, as the industry recovers from outbreaks of PED, which reduced piglet numbers in the previous two years. Recovery from the effects of PED has been faster in the United States, where a second year of growth is anticipated, when production could increase by 1.9% to a record 11.3 million tonnes. Output in Mexico also continues to recover, following a PED outbreak in 2014, and may rise in 2016 by 2.0% to 1.3 million tonnes. Pork meat trade could experience a second year of growth, increasing by 4.4% to 7.5 million tonnes – a record level. Lower international prices have stimulated trade. Most of the principal importing countries are anticipated to increase their purchases, including Mexico, China, the Russian Federation, the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Australia. In response to rising demand, exports are projected to grow, in particular those of the United States, Canada, the EU and Brazil (FAO, 2016). Summarizing, in this study we wish to examine how evolve the world pork meat production, trade and consumption, and to demonstrate the main consuming countries, highlighting the role of China, as it is the most populated country in the world with its 1.4 billion inhabitants.
JEL Code: Q13, Q12
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The effects of climate change on cereals yield of production and food security in Gambia
83-92Views:1017Increasingly, empirical evidences are substantiating the effects of climate change on agricultural production is a reality. In the early part of the 20th century many were skeptical about the so-called climate change that is due to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) defines climate change as follows: “climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean or variability of its properties and that persists for extended periods, typically decades or longer” This study analyses the impact of climate change on cereals production (millet and maize) in the Gambia using a time series data for a period of 46 years (1960 – 2013) at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate (temperatures and rainfall,) and non-climate variables fertilizer, area planted respectively and yield. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) How climate change affects the expected cereals (Millet and Maize) output or yield in the Gambia. (2) How the level of output risk within cereals (Millet and Maize) farming is affected? In order to achieve these set objectives, the paper will adopt Just and Pope modified Ricardian production functions for climate change impact assessments (e.g., Chen et al. 2004), the paper will also control for the impacts of regular input factors in the production process. The study used a data set for the Gambia comprising variables relevant for cereals production and climate information from 1960 through 2013. There is strong evidence that climate will affects Maize and Millet; according to the analysis 77% and 44% of the variability in the yield of Maize and Millet respectively is explained by the climate and non-climate variables included in the model. Given the effects of climate variables on cereals production, and increasing climate change vulnerabilities on other food production section, the result of this paper will add voice to the growing call for policy makers to step up funding in research and development in climate change adaptation and mitigation.
JEL classification: Q54
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Effect of Training on Small-Scale Rice Production in Northern Ghana
13-20Views:168Training in modern farming methods enables farm households in developing countries to improve agricultural productivity. Notwithstanding the efforts of governmental and non-governmental organisations to provide farmers with agricultural training, productivity remains low. The existing literature provides little empirical evidence of the effect of training on agricultural productivity in Ghana. This study therefore seeks to bridge this gap by investigating small scale rice farmers’ participation in agricultural training programmes and its effect on productivity in northern Ghana. A treatment effect model was used to account for sample selection bias. The results indicated that participation in training increased with the number of extension visits, group membership, access to credit and the degree of specialisation in rice production. Furthermore, total output and labour productivity both increased with participation in training but the relationship with land productivity (yield) was insignificant. On average, participation in training was associated with 797kg increase in rice output, while labour productivity increased by 7.3kg/man-day. With the exception of farm capital, all the production inputs had a positively significant relationship with output suggesting sub-optimal use of capital in production. The study concludes that farmers’ training needs are not adequately being met while inadequate capital is constraining farm output. Increasing access to extension service and involving farmer-based organisations in the design and implementation of training programmes will enhance participation and farm performance.
JEL Classification: C21, D24, Q12
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Comparing ols and rank-based estimation techniques for production analysis: An application to Ghanaian maize farms.
125-130Views:148This paper introduces the rank-based estimation method to modelling the Cobb-Douglas production function as an alternative to the least squares approach. The intent is to demonstrate how a nonparametric regression based on a rank-based estimator can be used to estimate a Cobb-Douglas production function using data on maize production from Ghana. The nonparametric results are compared to common parametric specification using the ordinary least squares regression. Results of the study indicate that the estimated coefficients of the CobbDouglas Model using the Least squares method and the rank-based regression analysis are similar. Findings indicated that in both estimation techniques, land and Equipment had a significant and positive influence on output whilst agrochemicals had a significantly negative effect on output. Additionally, seeds which also had a negative influence on output was found to be significant in the robust rank-based estimation, but insignificant in the ordinary least square estimation. Both the least squares and rank-based regression suggest that the farmers were operating at an increasing returns to scale. In effect this paper demonstrate the usefulness of the rank-based estimation in production analysis.
JEL CODE: Q18, D24, Q12, C1 and C67
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Agricultural development and government expenditures in the new EU countries
21-35Views:175The main ambition of this paper is to analyse agricultural developments in selected new EU member states with particular emphasis on government expenditures in agriculture. The main objective is to identify the relationship between government expenditures development on one side, and agrarian sector performance (the value of production) in selected member states on the other. The conclusions drawn from this analysis are that the agricultural sector has changed its structure and position within the national economy of selected new EU member states significantly in the 20 years since the early 1990s. Member states included in the analysis reduced both the size of their agricultural sector (number of people working in agriculture, total arable areas, number of animals, etc.), and the value of agricultural output. Despite the significant reduction of the agricultural output, member states became more efficient – and in particular their productivity per farmer increased significantly. Selected country’s agricultural sector, its structure and production value development are closely related to government expenditures. Significant correlation is apparent between agricultural government expenditures and the change in the number of economically active persons in agriculture, development of agricultural production, agricultural area, agricultural GDP and agricultural capital stock. Regarding the elasticity of new EU member states’ agricultural sector in relation to changes in government expenditures, significant elasticity is apparent in the case of the number of economically active persons in agriculture, agricultural production (especially livestock production), area of arable land, agricultural GDP and capital stock.
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Management issues of cropping with sorghum in the production structure - a case study of Hungary
Views:233One of the goals of the developments is to improve the efficiency of the activity by making the currently used traditional production structure more flexible and by making the necessary changes to the technology in the case of farmers with large agricultural land, having necessary machinery and equipments required. Farms with larger arables land are able to offset the effects of changes affecting efficacy and profitability. The main sector of Hungarian agriculture is crop production, so performance is largely determined by the annual output of the crop production sector and the price development of crop products. In the course of our analytical work, we defined a farm of 2100 hectares, for which we examined crop production, crop machinery and economic aspects. From the enterprise data, farm level results compiled according to the crop structure were calculated. Sorghum is suitable for replacing corn in the crop rotation in areas with unfavorable conditions, so a stably growing crop can be added to the crop rotation of autumn ears of corn, rape, and sunflower, instead of corn. It does not hinder the machinery modernization efforts either, since the precision tools and developments already started in corn production can be used well, and it does not require a special equipment park. At the same time, in light of the increasingly frequent negative climatic effects, sorghum’s integration into the plant production structure is encouraging, because we have to count on 3-4 drought years in a decade. Based on our analysis, the inclusion of sorghum in the crop structure does not significantly reduce the available income, which is acceptable in the given economic environment. However, its stability can significantly contribute to improving the resilience of farming, especially in comparison with corn.
JEL Code: Q12
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Investment analysis of a piglet producer farm – a Hungarian case study
141-152Views:282The pig population in Hungary was about 8 million in 1990, while this number dropped to only 2.8 million by 2018. The previously so successful integrated domestic pig farming has almost completely disappeared and most of the smaller farms still operating in the 1990s are no longer functioning. At present, a process of concentration can be observed, which was accompanied by the further specialization of pig farming. The main profile of most pig farms is fattening, but there is a smaller number of farms in Hungary today specialized for piglet production, the successful operation of which requires significantly more expertise and more complex technology.
The main aim of this study is to present the production and economic indicators of a pig farm specialized in piglet production in Hungary as a result of a greenfield investment in the current economic environment, on a case study basis. For this purpose, an economic simulation was prepared based on primary data collection, operating on a deterministic basis, modelling the production and economic processes of the farm. The performed calculation does not derive the economic indicators of the activity from accounting records, but assigns the prices of natural inputs used on the basis of technological data. Primary data and information collection (e.g. technological data, input and output prices, unit cost items, etc.) took place between 2018-2019.
At the purchase prices of pigs in the last two years, which have increased significantly due to the African Swine Fever (ASF), the majority of pig farms in Hungary have an outstanding profit-making capacity. The physical efficiency indicators of the analysed pig farm are almost identical to the average data of such farms in the Netherlands, which has one of the most developed pig industry. The income of the examined pig farm at farm level is about 734 thousand EUR, i.e. 232 EUR per sow. Moreover, this activity is profitable even without subsidies. As a result, the greenfield investment pays off in the 8th year by default (average scenario). The investment has a Net Present Value (NPVr=3%) of EUR 2,609 thousand for 10 years, an Internal Rate of Return of 8.5%, and a Profitability Index (PIr=3%) of 1.3. At the same time, risk factors such as sales prices, output and capacity utilization, and feed costs should be taken into consideration as in extreme cases the return on investment may be unfavourable (pessimistic scenario).
JEL code: D24, M11, Q12
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OPERATING RESULTS OF SILAGE ENTERPRISE OF A FARM - A CASE STUDY
Views:148Improvements in agriculture has been focusing on innovations to improve the efficiency of the activity by making the traditional production structure currently in use more flexible and by making the necessary technological changes for farmers with large areas and the necessary machinery and equipment. Farms with significant arable land are able to offset the effects of changes affecting efficiency and profitability. The decisive sector of agriculture in Hungary is crop production, therefore its performance is largely determined by the annual output of the crop sector and the volatility in prices. From the farm data, we calculated farm-level results that support the need for machinery modernisation efforts, as precision tools and improvements already started in maize production can be applied fruitfully even in the light of the increasing frequency of negative climatic effects. During the development of silage maize cultivation technology, the achievements of precision farming were applied. Differentiated nutrient replenishment and sowing operations were used, in addition to the fact that harvesting was also documented. We set ourselves the goal of analyzing the management data of the study period between 2019-2022 in order to reveal the nature of the changes that occurred in terms of production value, production cost, and income, as well as the components that shape them. The presented values are average values of such conditions which are also suitable for crop-level conclusions. At the same time, they can be used to identify sector-level challenges and trends.
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Hungarian dairy and beef production sector technical efficiency comparsion using DEA
131-138Views:223To examine and compare the technical efficiency of dairy sector and the beef sector, this research introduced the main indicators of milk and beef production in the world, EU and Hungarian aggregates. Based on the data it can be said that the milk and beef production of Hungary does not occupy any significant position in the world as well as in the European Union neither today nor even in the past. If Hungry must compete in the European counties and international market, their dairy sector must focus to increase of their production efficiency as the key breakthrough point. This paper we compared technical efficiency of both dairy and beef sectors in total, for the year 2014 and 2015 separately and based on the farm size. The specific objectives of the research are: comparing dairy and beef farms efficiency in Hungary. Based on the results, we can determine which sector in Hungary is more effective. The second objective is to compare the efficiencies of both the sectors in 2014 and 2015 separately and from the results we can determine which year was more effective in terms of production efficiency and the third objective of the research is technical efficiency comparison of certain economic sizes for both sectors. In the research, we used (KOVACS, 2009) deterministic (DEA) model adapted to the Hungarian dairy farms and beef farms. For the dairy farms milk and dairy products as well as meat (other income). The input factors originated from the domestic AKI - FADN database. Summarizing the results of the research it can be conclude that the dairy sector is more effective than the beef sector in Hungary. In terms of years compared 2014 was more effective for both sector as compared with 2015. In regards to the farm size almost the same result in evaluating the scale of efficiency, which means that large economies can in most cases, manage resources more efficiently than small farms. In the examined years, based on the results of the DEA model, the VRS technical efficiency of the test for these two years was 72.90% for the dairy farms and 63.60% for the beef farms, which means that the dairy sector is more efficient than the beef sector in Hungary. The VRS technical efficiency of the research was 82.10% in 2014 and 75.10% in 2015 for the dairy farms and 77.50% in 2014 and 68.90% in 2015 for the beef farms, which means that both the dairy sector and the beef sectors followed the same trend and were more efficient in 2014 compared to the efficiency in 2015. The large size dairy farms were most effective in Hungary in the examined period (90.90%). VRS technical efficiency for small farms is 88% and the total number of small, the technical efficiency medium farms was 72.80% For the beef sector VRS technical efficiency for small farms is 71.30% and the technical efficiency medium farms was 74.40% and 70% of the beef meat producing farms in Hungary are medium sized. So, the conclusion is the small size dairy farms have a higher VRS efficiency than the small size beef farms whereas medium sized beef farms had higher VRS efficiency than the medium size dairy farms. As a conclusion, both dairy and beef sectors in Hungary have the potential to overcome technology and knowledge constraints and attain the upmost attainable productivity level through improvements in; farmer volume of production i.e. output, beef cattle technologies, and advertising, and the efficiency of the technology transfer process.
JEL Code: Q13
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Trends in agriculture and food production
99-110Views:146Agricultural reform resulted a shift from collective farming to small-scale production in China. This reform also has resulted a strong increase in gross agricultural output, which coincides with a slower increase in labour productivity. At the beginning of the reforms, agriculture accounted for 70 percent of total employment in China and still employs more than 50%. As a result of these reforms, China has undergone impressive economic growth also in the agriculture; the country has become one of the world’s top exporters and is attracting record amounts of foreign investment. The government has also stepped up investments in rural areas to meet the market demand for agricultural products. Results are very competitive compared to Central and Eastern European countries, where agriculture accounted for only 15 percent of total employment, but agricultural reform resulted a strong decline in gross agricultural output, which coincides with a similarly strong decline in employment. When approaching the issue of sustainable agriculture, we have to take into consideration, which China and India feed the largest populations in the world and both countries have had its own agricultural successes in the past 50 years. China has used land far more efficiently than many developed countries. With nine percent of the world’s arable land, China is responsible for the greatest share of agricultural production worldwide. Volume of produced pork, eggs, wheat, cotton, tobacco, and rice has increased and China exports an increasing amount of product each year. China has opened his borders, but do not expose food consumers to price shocks and producers to risks and disincentives. In this paper, the land-tenure system and the trends of agricultural developments are analysed in China and selected countries of EU.
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Economic aspects of an agricultural innovation – precision crop production
51-57Views:236Innovation in agriculture ensures the wide-spread use of the latest, up-to-date technology. Such new technology is precision farming in crop production, which serves as a validation of the criteria of environmental and economic sustainability. The economic applicability of precision crop production depends on several factors.Among them the following aspects must be emphasized: the size of the farm, the characteristics of the production structure, the current input-output prices and their tendencies, the investment needed for transitioning to precision technology and its capital source, the level of professional knowledge and the managerial attitudes of the farm. I have examined the economic relations between potential savings in chemicals on EU level. It has been found that after switching to precision farming, the active ingredient use for fertilizers can be reduced by 340 thousand tons at the same expected yield level in an optimistic scenario in the EU-27, while the savings in pesticide use can be 30 thousand tons (calculating with the current dose-level). If approximately 30% of the crop producing and mixed farms over 16 ESU adopt this new technology, this will diminish environmental loads by up to 10-35%. The majority of farms characterized by greater output and size can be based on their own equipment but it might as well be presumed that smaller farms can turn to precision farming not based on their own investment. They can buy the technical service from providers, they can establish producer cooperation, for example in the frame of machinery rings. At a certain farm size and farming intensity precision crop production is a real, environmentally friendly farming strategy, with the help of which the farm can reach earnings that cover at least the economic conditions of simple reproduction.
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Technical efficiency analysis of maize production: evidence from Ghana
73-79Views:576The study applies the single-stage modelling stochastic frontier approach to investigate the performance of maize farmers in the Ejura-Sekyedumase District of Ghana. It estimates the level of technical efficiency and its determinants for 306 maize farmers. Findings indicated that land, labour and fertilizer influenced output positively whilst agrochemicals and seeds affected output negatively. A wide variation in output was also found among producers of maize. The study further revealed that age, sex and off-farm work activities were significant determinants of technical inefficiencies in production. Results from the maximum likelihood estimate of the frontier model showed that averagely, farmers were 67% technically efficient, implying that 33% of maize yield was not realized. The return to scale which measures the productivity level of farmers was 1.22, suggesting that the farmers are operating at an increasing returns to scale.
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Examination of pig farm technology by computer simulation
25-29Views:162Agricultural production is among the riskiest production activities. Similarly to other branches of agriculture in animal breeding the finished product is the result of complex procedures. The biological technological procedure, the creation of the product is affected by an outstanding number of environmental factors which also cause uncertainties. In the North Great Plain Region of Hungary, sows, gilts and slaughter pigs are produced on a corporate farm. The reliable operation data of this company provide a stable basis for and estimating future costs and revenue and their distributions. Monte Carlo methods are one of the generally accepted tools for modeling risks. The significant independent variables, their ranges and probability distributions, and the correlation between them were inputs to the model. The values of the variables were produced using a random number generator. The computer simulation was performed using @Ris (PalisadeCorporation) software. The study concentrates on the factors affecting the number of off spring (piglets). Model inputs were the mating, mortality and farrowing rates; the costs and the income values based on these rates have been analysed as the output data of the model.
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Measuring technical, economic and allocative efficiency of maize production in subsistence farming: evidence from the central rift valley of Ethiopia
63-73Views:502This study measured the technical, allocative and economic efficiencies of maize production in the central rift valley of Ethiopia using cross sectional data collected from randomly selected 138 sample households. The estimated result showed that the mean technical, allocative and economic efficiencies were 84.87%, 37.47% and 31.62% respectively. Among factors hypothesized to determine the level of efficiency scores, education was found to determine allocative and economic efficiencies of farmers positively while the frequency of extension contact had a positive relationship with technical efficiency and it was negatively related to both allocative and economic efficiencies. Credit was also found to influence technical and economic efficiencies positively and distance to market affected technical efficiency negatively. The model output also indicated that soil fertility was among significant variables in determining technical efficiency in the study area. The result indicated that there is a room to increase the efficiency of maize producers in the study area.
JEL Classifications: C67, D24, D61, L23, Q12, Q18
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Off-farm participation and technical efficiency among smallholder farmers in the Northern Region, Ghana
35-43Views:239The study aimed at investigating the effects of off-farm participation on technical efficiency of maize production in the Tolon district of the Northern Region, Ghana. The Logit regression model was used to analyze the determinants of off-farm participation while the stochastic frontier production function was used to model the determinants of maize output and technical efficiency. The empirical results from the logistic regression model indicate that age of farmer, educational attainment, farming experience, farm size, and previous farm income are significant drivers of farmers’ participation in off-farm activities. Farmers’ average technical efficiency level was 90.7% suggesting a 9.3% potential loss to inefficiency. Moreover, participation in off-farm activities had a negative influence on farmers’ technical efficiency level. The study, therefore, recommends that farm-level policy should be directed towards making the agricultural sector attractive by promoting investment and agricultural employment opportunities in the rural areas so as to ensure full commitment to farming activities.
JEL code: Q22
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Potential of vertical and horizontal integration in the Hungarian fish product chain
5-15Views:226After the economic and political transformation, the output and resource utilization of the Hungarian fish production sector decreased less than in other livestock sectors, and it managed to preserve its income position. As a consequence of the relatively low level of the implemented innovative developments, though, for all the EU assistance available the cooperation efforts did not prove to be very efficient. The relatively favourable income position of several farms led them to a kind of “leisureliness”, and as a result, the level of the applied production technology in many cases did not even reach that of the 1970s. All these circumstances led to the degradation of the innovations and to the expiration of the horizontal and vertical integrations in the sector, leaving the commercial and cooperation forms being typical in an otherwise stabile classical free-market environment. Problems were further increased – amongst other things – by the volatile cereal prices, 27% VAT rate, and the introduction of road toll. After long years, certain farms were to face losses, and the decline of profitability at sectorial level, thus the need for innovation and producers’ co-operations has become imperative. As a solution option to these problems, a model of a product chain containing both horizontal and vertical elements and comprising the entire sector has been developed. Present study introduces this new model, which is established on foreign examples primarily, but takes the Hungarian specialities into account too.
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L’Antica Pizzeria da Michele as a Case Study of Traditional Speciality Guaranteed and International Franchising
17-23Views:502This work explores the case study of L’Antica Pizzeria da Michele as a best practice of traditional speciality guaranteed and international franchising. Besides being one of the most ancient and successful pizzerias in Naples, da Michele is renowned all over the world for the quality of its raw products, dough processing, and output. In the last years, da Michele also started pioneering the pizza production and commerce industry with an innovative franchising model and a new company appointed to managing this latter business. This work makes use of in-depth interviews and data collected on the field. For such scope, top managers and employees of both the local and the international companies were interviewed. The study finds that da Michele managed to become a benchmark for territorial food products and, more recently, for high-standard franchising, jumpstarting a successful brand-new company and food business project.
JEL Classification: O13, Q13, Q16, Q1
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Efficiency analysis of dairy farms in the Northern Great Plain region using deterministic and stochastic DEA models
113-122Views:141Running any dairy enterprise is a risky activity: the profitability of the enterprise is affected by the price fluctuation of feed and animal health products from inputs, as well as by the fluctuation of end-product prices. Under these circumstances, it is essential for the cattle breeders, in order to survive, to harness the reserves in management as effectively as possible. In this research the efficiency and risk of 32 sample dairy farms were analysed in the Northern Great Plain Region from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) by applying classical Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and stochastic DEA models. The choice of this method is justified by the fact that there was not such an available reliable database by which production functions could have been defined, and DEA makes possible to manage simultaneously some inputs and outputs, i.e. complex decision problems. By using DEA, the sources that cause shortfall on inefficient farms can be identified, analysed and quantified, so corporate decision support can be reinforced successfully. A disadvantage of the classical DEA model is that the stochastic factors of farming cannot be treated either on the side of inputs or outputs; therefore, their results can be adopted with reservations, especially in agricultural models. This may have been because we could not discover that many agricultural applications. Considering the price of inputs and outputs as probability variables, 5000 simulation runs have been done in this research. As a result, it can be stated that at which intervals of the input and output factors can become competitive and the fluctuation of these factors can cause what level of risk at each farm.
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Using DEA to evaluate efficiency of higher education
79-82Views:568The aim of the higher education reform process both in Hungary and in the European countries is establishing a competitive, qualitative higher education with efficiently operating institutions. The question of efficiency needs increased attention not only because of the decline of the state support but also the rapid raise of the student mass. In the educationsystemit’snot easy to measurethe output of the services.The situation is more complicated if an organisation or a sector has multiple inputs and outputs. In this case a possible method of determining efficiency is Data Envelopment Analysis. In my paper I’d like to introduce this method and use it to compare the efficiency of higher education systems. urthermore I am examining whether their efficiency is influenced by the extent of the contribution of the state and the private sector or socio-economic factors like GDP per capita and education level of parents.
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