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Comparing parametric and semiparametric error correction models for estimation of long run equilibrium between exports and imports
19-23Views:137This paper introduces the semiparametric error correction model for estimation of export-import relationship as an alternative to the least squares approach. The intent is to demonstrate how semiparametric error correction model can be used to estimate the relationship between Ghana’s export and import within the context of a generalized additive modelling (GAM) framework. The semiparametric results are compared to common parametric specification using the ordinary least squares regression. The results from the semiparametric and parametric error correction models (ECM) indicate that the error correction term and import variable are significant determinants of Ghana’s exports. On the basis of Akaike Information Criteria and Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) scores, it is found that the semiparametric error correction model provides a better fit than the widely used parametric error correction model for modeling Ghana’s export-import relationship. The results of the analysis of variance provide further evidence of nonlinearity in Ghana’s export and import relationship. In effect, this paper demonstrates the usefulness of semiparametric error correction model in the estimation of export – import relationship.
JEL code: C14, C18, C22, F10, F14
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Estimation of Armington elasticities: case of vegetables in Mongolia
Views:158Mongolian people often consume meat more than vegetable in diet due to traditional nomadic culture. Nowadays, the Mongolian people’s diet has been changing who consume more vegetables with associated urbanization (half of the population live in urban areas, mostly in the capital city). Even though vegetable consumption has been increased recently, the vegetable market is still a high reliance on imports and threatening national food security. Since 2016, the Mongolian government has especially paid attention to increasing vegetable's domestic production and substitution to import vegetables (Ministry of food and Agriculture, 2017). Therefore, this paper provided to substitution elasticity (the Armington elasticity) between import vegetables and domestic vegetables in Mongolia. Additionally, we estimated the home bias value of vegetables. The so-called Armington elasticities are widely used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis, which determines a degree of substitution between import goods and domestically produced goods. Several of the authors studied Armington elasticities at the product level. We choose six vegetables (such as potato, garlic and onion, tomato, carrot and turnips, cabbage, and cucumber) related to lack of information. The empirical result shows that the Armington elasticities in the long-run higher than the short-run with exception of potato which means that products are similar in the long-run. However, our estimated Armington elasticities are quite lower than the previous studies result which means that Mongolian people indicated more prefer home growing vegetables than import vegetables. Moreover, we found that the home bias value is high in the short-run even long -run, this appears to be a higher relative weight on home vegetables.
JEL code: F13, Q17, Q18
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Main characteristics of trade of the Hungarian cereals and oil crops between 2000 and 2010 and the effects of changes in intervention rules to the Hungarian cop sector from 2004 to 2010
47-54Views:132In this paper the trade of the Hungarian cereal and oil crops from 2000 and 2010 are introduced. The general attributes of the Hungarian crop sector are analyzed and a specific picture from aspect of the trade in Hungarian cereal and oilseed sector, with a focus on the quantity of the export and import of wheat, maize, rapeseed, sunflower and other crops and their main target countries. This article also aims to show the impacts of the changes in the EU’s intervention rules and provide analysis.
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Strategy for the restaurant business in Russia in terms of sanctions and import substitution
71-80Views:144This article describes the situation established in August 2014 in Russia. The article considers an example of a famous restaurant «Metropol» (Moscow), taking into account the prevailing situation in Russia. The study of customer attendance, assortment and price policy towards the main products forming the restaurant’s menu was conducted. As a result, recommendations were given, in order to preserve the client base and revise the assortment of dishes.
JEL CODE: M21
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Significance of wheat production in world economy and position of Hungary in it
115-119Views:257This article intends to introduce the significance of wheat production in world economy and role of Hungary in it on the basis of statistic database of FAO. Importance of wheat production in world economy is proven by its share of 15% from 1500 million hectares arable land in the world. This rate is equivalent to 225 million hectares of wheat area based on FAO figures for 2009. From its world economy significance view point, on the basis of some significant features it sets order of ranks among wheat producing countries, accompanied by Hungary too. Setting of rank orders is based on the quantity of wheat produced by countries, cultivated area and exported, imported wheat quantity. As regards wheat export in 2008, Hungary was placed as 11. in the world while on the basis of produced quantity and cultivated area it did not achieve any of top 20 countries. Wheat import of Hungary is negligible since its wheat production is greatly over the self-sufficiency level in one production year. Our logistics disadvantages indicate one of considerable difficulties of market access for primary materials in domestic plant production.
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Hungarian endeavours for the enhancement of economic relations in Southeast Asia focusing on a new partnership with Vietnam
5-12Views:209Beyond a brief review of the economic integration process among the states of the ASEAN region, the authors of the present study aimed to examine and analyze the main economic, social and political characteristics of the Hungaro-ASEAN relations. The importance of the topic of this research is underlined by the fact that the Hungarian government considers big importance to the improvement of the foreign economic relations with Asian economies. This intention was expressed by a new foreign economic strategy „Eastern opening” announced by the government in 2012, even though the foreign trade statistical figures did not justify its success by now.The authors believe that increasing opening towards Asia serves Hungarian economic interests. Therefore, it is a right and desirable direction to proceed, they consider that in the background of the modest results there might be the insufficient knowledge of the market mechanisms, the actors of the local supply chains and the potential partners. They believe that in order to make the Hungarian foreign economic endeavours in this direction more successful a more thorough examination of the local characteristics – including the actual demand arising at the targeted markets - is necessary. This opinion is prevalent to not only the Asian „Giants”, like China, India and Japan, but also to smaller states, like the ASEAN members, which – together - in terms of population and economic performance – reach the dimensions of an economic great power as well.
Furthermore, the integration of the ten Southeast Asian countries develops rapidly, which is coupled by their increasing weight in the world trade. The dynamic economic and social development in the ASEAN region – and in parallel with this the growing demands and purchasing power - may encourage the Hungarian ventures in theory. However, there are still very few Hungarian entrepreneurs, who are ready to enter the market in the region and able in long run to operate there successfully. It is a well-known fact that the since the regime has changed in Hungary, foreign trade became strongly concentrated towards the EU members.
The ASEAN countries – because of the geographic distance and by other reasons - definitely cannot mean an alternative of the EU market, however in a certain extent they can relieve this one-sided concentration and may provide additional opportunities for the Hungarian export of goods, and rather to the export of Hungarian services and know-how. The ratio of the ASEAN region within the entire Hungarian foreign trade turnover is small nowadays, furthermore – according to the statistical figures – this region is rather an import resource for Hungary than being an export market. This fact – just itself – is should not be considered as problem. When the amount of the import exceeds the amount of exports, that means that it is more worthwhile to do business with suppliers from there countries than with others. By and large all this is prevalent to the field of the agricultural trade as well: Hungary imports a range of commodities which cannot be produced by domestic farmers or in Europe (spices, tropical fruits, etc.). It is obvious that the ASEAN region cannot be the major market for the Hungarian agricultural export, not even in long run. However, there are still a lot of opportunities to enlarge the turnover of goods and services and enhance the co-operation in this geographic region. In the last chapter, the authors outlined an example in case of Vietnam – co-operation of joint public warehousing of agricultural commodities – which may be a good example for the promising potential opportunities. In contrast with the majority of the ASEAN countries, the Hungaro-Vietnamese political and economic relations had started much earlier than the regime was changed in Hungary. However, the potential advantages arose from this fact – the network of connections and the sympathy of Vietnamese professionals graduated in Hungary, the reputation and popularity of Hungarian agricultural products and technologies, the achievements of R&D in the field of agriculture – could not be utilized from Hungarian side. Vietnam, however still preserved its socialist political establishment, but in terms of its economic development strategy and economic policy has gradually been standing on the basis of market orientation. Vietnam, with its population of ninety million shows a rapid and successful development and it means good opportunities even for Hungarian entrepreneurs. It would be a mistake to leave these potentials unused.JEL Classification: F14, Q17, R11, N75
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Determinants of Mongolian Economic Growth
61-66Views:251Mongolia is the second largest landlocked country, which has unique economic condition. This paper aims to examine Mongolian economic growth from 2000 until 2016 and identify its determinants. The growth was studied based on the growth rate of National Domestic Product. Initially, 20 macroeconomic variables are chosen and tested for the economic growth determinators such as; unemployment rate, human capital index, import growth, inflation rate, export growth, and interest rate, etc. The results showed that the growth rate of dollar exchange, inflation rate, and the growth rate of export were the main factors (81.4%). Mongolian GDP per capita and poverty rate were compared with other Asian lower-middle-economies, which are classified in the same classification as Mongolia. An increment of average salary was adjusted by the inflation rate, which showed the purchasing power declined in 2015. Statistics of Central Bank of Mongolia, Central Intelligence Agency, World Bank’s statistics, and the statistics from National Statistics Office of Mongolia are used for the research.
JEL Classification: H0, H30, H6, H70
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The problems of regional development in Montenegro
85-88Views:106Economic development is a continuous, stochastic process considering that development depends on a multitude of historical, political, economic, cultural, ethnic and other factors. In the process of development, each country puts effort into strengthening their manufacturing potential, increasing the competitiveness of their economy by modernizing technology, and raising the level of education, culture etc. Owing to the accentuated actions of these factors, and different social, economic and other circumstances, there has been emerging polarizations in regional development, urbanization and so on. Proof of a country’s level of economic development can be found in various indicators such as capital equipment; the share of manufacturing, agriculture, and foreign trade; the share of the private sector in total ownership; the development of financial institutions and capital markets; the development and stability of the legal system; the development of transport, telecommunication and other infrastructure; the realized standard of living; the development of democracy and human rights protection; preserved environment etc. Economies of developing countries, including Montenegro, are usually characterized by a low capital equipment and low labor productivity, expensive manufacturing and insufficient share of world trade, high import dependence, uncompetitiveness, high unemployment, undeveloped entrepreneurship, and an undeveloped financial institutions. Polarized countries in an economic and development sense, are therefore those which are unevenly developed, and are constantly faced with highly pronounced problems of disparity in regional development and demographic problems. Solving these problems is a long-term process and necessitates. The design of a regional policy that is more efficient than the previous ones, as well, as building a different procedure for fulfilling the adopted regional policies.
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Brief overview of the international flower market, its state and development under present-day economic conditions
93-96Views:151The research of international flower market was conducted in this article.A big attention was paid to the main countries which are suppliers and importers of flowers and plants including their shares in the world flower production. The impact of financial crisis on this economic sector and inequality in consumption level of different countries were observed.
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Small and medium enterprises as development factor of agribusiness in Republic of Serbia
45-49Views:134Development of strong and competitive sector of small and medium enterprises has very important role in process of total transition in Republic of Serbia. This sector should be one of the guidelines of economical development and future, like in developed countries. Within the Strategy of development of SME and entrepreneurship in Republic of Serbia from 2003 to 2008 government of the Republic of Serbia, not accidentally, placed among many sectors which are expected to contribute and boost economical development, increase the employment rate, and realize increased influx of means deriving from export, the priority is on sector of processing of agricultural products. It can be concluded that significant contribution from agriculture to improvement of total economical situation is expected. Accession to EU should be considered primarily not only as the opportunity but serious task in regard to restructuring of the agriculture. However, impeding circumstance,in regard to export ofagricultural-foodproducts,first ofallto EU countries, isthefact that thismarket is under strict protective measures within the policy of agriculture and measures of agrarian protectionism. In such conditions it is very difficult for producers and processors of food to enter such closed markets. Small and medium enterprises are facing the choice of the business strategy:
– to place the existing product on current market;
– to place the existing product on new markets, including export;
– to sell the new product on existing market;
– to place the new product on new markets, including export.
Therefore, based on analysis of domestic market, volume and structure of import and export of agricultural and food products, as well as analysis of food industry and agricultural production in Serbia, it is necessary to define potential programs for small and medium enterprises with production which could be economically efficient and profitable from the aspect of investment.
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Agriculture of the countries of the Western Balkans and European integrations
93-97Views:115The paper presents the results of research of agriculture of the countries of the Western Balkans in the period of 2002–2009. Specifically, general economic (GDP per capita, share of agriculture in GDP, inflation rate, and unemployment rate), resource (share of arable land in the total utilized agricultural land, of employees in agriculture in the total number of employees, and of rural population in the total population), and value indicators (value added of agriculture in % of GDP, value added of agriculture per employee in agriculture, producers’ prices of wheat, corn, and bovine milk, share of agriculture in the values of export and import) were compared.
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Poultry sector analysis in Albania
Views:243Meat production, in specific poultry meat is a very important product for protein and nutrition values for many consumers. With the urbanization of the population people’s diet is shifting towards meat overall, including processed poultry. This has increased the challenges of quality and control over the meat products. (RAIHAN AND MAHMUD, 2018) In general, poultry remains a problematic sector in Albania, with the most common issue being the quality and not the European Union standards and regulations. This paper analysis the egg and poultry products livestock and productions, importing and exporting trends on poultry products, and the potential of development of this sector in the single market of European Union by improving the sector. This study gives an overview in poultry subsector related to livestock and production, international trades, and their market trends. It highlights the supply chain in poultry that can be helpful for poultry businesses and government. It also provides valuable information regarding the impact of quality issues in international market, also the structure of the market for poultry is conducted. Also, the imports and exports on poultry subsector trends and comparison was conducted. The study also consisted of calculations of index number CPI, which indicates the changes in consumer purchasing power.
JEL code: D1
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Comparison of fisheries sectors of Japan and Turkey in production, consumption, trade and future possibilities
147-153Views:154The purpose of this study is to show some view-points such as the expansion of the mutual trade scale in fish and/or marine products, and newly effective use of edible marine bio-resources in each country. Total quantity of fisheries production, consumption (per capita), export and import quantity of Japan and Turkey based on 2010 were reported as 75.27 million tons, 653 thousand tons; 8.5 kg, 70.9 kg, 566 thousand tons, 55.1 thousand tons,; 473 thousand tons, 80, 7 thousand tons respectively. Turkey- Japan total amount of fisheries trade was more than 56 million US $ in 2011 and, but in 2000 was just over 14 million US $. Japan and Turkey bilateral relations are friendly and cordial, and they are steadily improving. Therefore, they should prepare business plans or obtain funding for business plan development to identify new markets and explore business expansion opportunities.
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Free Trade Agreement: Impacts on the Costa Rican Dairy Market
83-90Views:153According to the Free Trade Agreement with Central America, Dominican Republic and United States signed in 2008, milk import tariff reliefs will stagger down from 59,4% to 0% by 2025. This study determined milk demand and supply curves in the Costa Rican domestic market. Several variables and two different models were conducted to estimate milk demand and supply: Ordinary Least Squares and Two Stages Least Square simultaneous equations. In both cases, demand was estimated by income and milk prices as independent variables; while supply was estimated by input and milk prices. Nonetheless, the best fit was obtained by TSLS model because it accounts for endogeneity among price and quantity. Based on this model, if domestic prices are supposed to decrease due to increasing quantities of imported lower-priced milk, then national demand would increase (9% average) and national production is expected to decrease (26% average). The gap between national milk demand and supply is expected to be filled by milk imported from United States; assuming 0% tariff, no transaction costs and constant share of exports within national production.
JEL Classification: F1, Q17
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Using sustainable development tools for solving property rights in Montenegro
127-131Views:107In recent months Montenegro has been faced with serious budget problems , one proposed solution of which has been to reduce the number of employees in state administration. Additionally, the costs of living are above the disposable budget of most households, in particular the high cost of electricity. While the government warns about a lack of electricity, the citizens are hardly in the position to cover these costs. Montenegro is dealing with the double challenge of inefficient use of space (the country features over 100,000 illegal homes)(I don’t understand the link between inefficient use of space and illegal homes) and inefficient energy use (Montenegro needs an average of 8.5 times more energy per unit produced than an average EU country). How can these problems be solved in a way which pleases both sides? In this paper, an approach is presented which links the solving of the problem of illegal construction with increasing the level of energy efficiency in households, businesses and other facilities. There is a model developed by UNDP Montenegro – an integrated policy solution to the double challenge of providing energy efficiency measures to incentivise households to legalise their homes. The legalisation of illegal buildings by the introduction of mandatory energy efficiency measures in them may at the same time result in an increase of revenue to the central and local budgets, the reduction of negative impacts on the environment, an increase in employment, the engagement of the economy, a reduction of electricity consumption and thereby to reduce the need to import electricity, and ultimately the increased welfare of the population.
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Pork production and consumption issues from the perspective of the religion and the World's growing population
121-128Views:448In this article we would like to present the production and consumption issues of pork meat in the world. We intend to examine the production and consumption of pork meat from the point of view of the population. The growing population of the world requires an increasing amount of food, especially animal source of protein, ie meat. We want to examine how the world can supply the growing population with food, including (pork) meat. The growing population generates ever-increasing consumption from year to year, and may not be able to satisfy it, adequately supplying the population with food, especially (pork) meat. Livestock farming, especially extensive animal husbandry, will be less able to produce sufficient quantities of meat for the growing needs.
During the analysis of food (meat) data we would like to present the difference between each continent on both the production and the consumption side. Examining the pork consumption, it should be mentioned the differences in the cultural habits, because the pork meat is the most affected in religious restrictions, regulations. The religious affiliation/identity is basically determined by the food and consumer habits, too. Due to the differences in dietary habits and religious culture, we think that the consumption of pork can be highly variable in the world and from country to country as well.
In general, we would like to answer questions about how the world (pork) meat production is going, is the meat consumed in the countries where it is produced (export – import issues), what are the factors that influence (pork) meat consumption (culture and religion impact on pork consumption, animal health issues), and is there enough (pork) meat for the world's growing population.
JEL code: P46, Q18, Q56
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