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• Data mining through a business window (Part II.)

  108-130

  Attila Harmati

  Views:

  136

  This article demonstrates the real world applications of the technology of data mining by way of a data mining project. This project was created by the author and the analyzed database was provided by a real company. The aim of the analysis was to create a classification model for this firm. To achieve this we applied logistic regression models, a decision tree and a neural network. The best model can help the company to consciously establish which customers will probably respond positively to a personal letter in a direct marketing campaign. In this way potentially favourable customers are reached more efficiently than in the case of randomized selection. This increases the efficiency of the company, and the generalization of results can confirm several advantages of data mining as used in business life.

  JEL classification: C25, C44, C45, C49, C88

• The Development of Growth Accounting Techniques in the Mirror of Economic Growth

  85-103

  Levente Nadasi

  Views:

  144

  In this article we present the development of certain growth theories that model the main sources of growth. Since the elasticity of substitution – one of the most important parameters of production function – is not unity, as the Cobb-Douglas production function assumes, it can be different from a value of 1; hence we need a more general CES-type (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) production function. Another important question is the classification of factors of production. The elasticity of substitution is an efficiency factor as well, thus it receives special attention in the analysis. Finally we summarize the main papers that are mainly concerned with growth accounting, and try to answer the question of which factors play a significant or less significant role in economic growth. Growth accounting is strongly connected to growth theories so we refer back to growth theory at certain points.

  JEL classification: E13, O47

• Adatbányászat üzleti szemmel (I. rész)

  Attila Harmati

  Views:

  95

  Organizations in the 21st century - whether they are profitoriented or not, in private ownership or state-owned - can increase their efficiency with an outstanding tool. This tool is data mining. This article first of all defines and presents data mining, and locates it in the process of 'Knowledge Discovery in Databases'. Following this we review the fields of employment of data mining and the basic methods employed. In particular we discuss the method of classification and the theoretical background of the main techniques, such as decision trees, neural networks and logistic regression models. The second part of this paper presents the real world application of this technology by way of an analysis of a real database.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: C25, C44, C45, C49

• Revealed comparative advantage in Hungarian agriculture: a chaotic or coherent pattern?

  59-82

  Imre Ferto

  Views:

  114

  We describe the evolving pattern of Hungarian agri-food trade using recently developed empirical procedures based around the classic Balassa Index at various aggregation level and different bechmark between 1992 and 2002. Our results shows a significant geographical differences and across sub-sectors of 1, 2, and 3 digit SITC classification. The extent of trade specialisation exhibits a declining trend for all benchmarks; Hungary has lost comparative advantage for a number of product groups over time. The indices of specialisation have also tended to converge. For particular product groups, the indices display greater variation. They are stable for product groups with comparative disadvantage, but product groups with weak to strong comparative advantage show significant variation.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: Q12

• From mud-hut to microprocessors: The unified growth theory

  29-50

  Peter Foldvari

  Views:

  110

  The Unified Growth Theory attempts to explain economic growth in the long run within a single framework. Accordingly, it is expected that a successful unified theory is capable of modeling the transition among different economic regimes. In this study, after identifying the main features of the three growth regimes (Mathusian, post-Malthusian and sustained economic growth), we review two typical unified growth theories. While the Hansen-Prescott model seeks to explain how the transition occurred, the Galor-Weil model focuses on the causes and interrelatedness of the observed phenomena.

  JEL classification: N10, O41

• University Ranking Lists and Mirror Images - as Prospective Students Make Their Choice

  78-91

  Gyongyi Csuka

  Mihaly Szivos

  Views:

  122

  The paper is based on a survey carried out by the authors, which aimed, on the one hand, at specifying the extent to which would-be students know the rankings of universities and take them into consideration when choosing university faculties, and, on the other hand, at revealing the role played by other factors in their decisions. The majority of would-be students know the rankings of universities but these have not became an important factor in the decision processes. To have good lecturers and professors, to acquire useful knowledge, and to obtain a job with their degree are considered by would-be students as crucial factors. They try to get information from several sources and the Internet has become the most important one, which they use routinely and with skill. On the other hand, it can be proved that they would like to rely on more customized information sources as well.

  JEL classification: Z13

• Presentation of economic and socio-cultural impact analyses of the Opera festival of Miskolc

  114-130

  Viktoria Kundi

  Views:

  106

  The article presents research into the economic and socio-cultural impact of the Miskolc Opera festival. It explores how a cultural event – which was created thanks to conscious urban development – can operate in a city with an industrial past and a stagnant economic situation. After the methodology and desk research, the tourist facilities of the city are analyzed. In the following sections of the paper, the results of primary research are presented.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: Z130

• Több hitel, nagyobb kockázat

  185-200

  Balazs Csonto

  Dora Siklos

  Views:

  151

  The main goal of this paper is to analyse the characteristics of the rapid credit growth in Hungary in recent years. The availability of credit is crucial for households who want to smooth their consumption and for firms, while the amount of credit affects the monetary transmission mechanism and financial stability risks. We analyse the reasons for the credit expansion and demonstrate that the increase in the amount of credit can improve the efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism, We analyse the micro risks induced by credit growth. Finally we demonstrate Krugman's model (1999) in connection with the Asian crises and then we try to prove that the growth of foregin-currency denominated credit decreases the ability of monetary policy to affect aggregate demand.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E51.

• The “Timeless and Highly Topical at the Same Time”: In Memory of Professor András Bródy

  5-17

  Zsuzsa Bekker

  Views:

  127

  Professor András (Andrew) Bródy, one of the most outstanding of post-war Hungarian economists, perhaps the most spirited member of his generation, died at the age of 86, on 3rd of December, 2010. For several decades he had been dealing with the mathematical formulation of Marxian theory. He was an internationally respected model-builder, applying input-output analysis, also working with Professor Leontief in this field. He was both in full command of high-level theoretical knowledge, and proficient in the latest methodological approaches. He also conducted pioneering research into the application of
  the laws of thermodynamics to economic problems. His international fame was initially based on his book Prices and Proportions, published in Hungarian (1969) and also in English by North-Holland (1970). Several articles, conference papers, and several other books he wrote or edited broadened this recognition,
  the most important landmarks being Ciklus és szabályozás (Cycles and Regulation, 1980) in Hungarian, Slowdown (1982) in both English and Hungarian, and finally, Near Equilibrium in English (2004) and Chinese (2009). Fortunately, he participated in the work of our department, the History of Economic Thought at the Corvinus University of Budapest between 1995 and 2005. This article in his honour is a brief summary of his achievements and a reader’s selection of his writings prepared for the students of our department which reflect his views on the state of economic theories; also attached is a bibliography of his most important publications.

  JEL classification: A11, B23, B24, B32

• The impact of digitalization on the financial sector

  29-42

  Cserne Panka Póta

  Patrícia Becsky-Nagy

  Views:

  419

  Present-day consumer society increasingly satisfies its needs through digital channels, and financial products and services are no exceptions. The 4th industrial revolution is not only about the penetration of technology, but also the paradigm shift of business processes. The traditional members of the financial sector must adapt to the digitalized world to keep their positions in the market. The penetration of BigTech and FinTech companies influenced the expectations of consumers: customer experience became the main criteria of their decisions. In order to simplify and accelerate processes, banks use the methods of digitalization, and automatize the system to increase client satisfaction. In this article, we will introduce the three
  bank types based primarily on the usage of innovative technology, the extension and depth of the cooperation with FinTech companies, and the status of a bank’s internal digital transformation. Also, we will introduce the current status of the banking sector evidenced by our SWOT-analysis and mention some of the existing payment solutions.
  JEL Classification: G21, G23

• The question of duality in post-transition economic development

  71-90

  Miklos Szanyi

  Views:

  170

  One of the main questions of the FDI-based economic development model is how the local embeddedness of technologically advanced, globally operating multinational firms can be increased. The global economic integration of smaller, locally owned firms could be enhanced by the stimulating spillover effects stemming from multinationals. However, if the two main sectors of the economy function in isolation from each-other, stimulation effects cannot appear. This paper studies the features and extent of structural duality in Hungary, and the preconditions for deepening economic ties between the two sectors and
  of the utilization of positive externalities stemming from the presence of large multinational firms.

  JEL classification: F23, L53

• Interdependence between government redistribution and economic growth in the long run

  132-146

  Levente Nadasi

  Views:

  156

  The present paper aims to study changes in the degree of government redistribution with an institutional, historical, statistical and model-like approach. I investigate the impact of changes in redistribution on long-term economic growth in 30 European countries. It is generally stated that government spending/GDP ratio has been continuously increasing (in terms of trend) in Europe since the 1870s. I examine how the size of the states affects economic growth, and what other factors influence the long-run relationship between these two variables. My hypothesis is that in developed countries with high government
  redistribution it has been an impediment to economic growth in the long run. Finally, I illustrate this hypothesis with a statistical analysis of 30 European countries.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Classification: E66, H62, C10

• Az európai növekedési potenciál eróziója

  5-23

  Peter Halmai

  Views:

  94

  The potential growth rate in the EU Member States has been declining and lagging behind their competitors since the 1990's. Due to severe productivity problems in the EU (first of all the significant decrease in the total factor productivity dynamics) and the insufficient adaptation to the processes of globalisation, further remarkable and permanent decline in the potential growth rate is expected. Paradoxically the potential growth rate might decrease in the long run to a greater extent in the new Member States. As a result of the present global economic crisis new risks might appear. The riskss of the recurrence of shocks are significant. These factors project further erosion of the European growth potential. Integrated structural reforms and a comprehensive review of the European model are needed in order to overcome the unfavourable trends and put Europe on a more favourable growth path than the one indicated in this study.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: F15, F43

• HR Funtion Under Changes at Subsidiaries of Foreign Multinational Firms in Light of an Empirical Study in Hungary

  98-116

  Jozsef Poor

  Views:

  425

  Following almost two decades of multinational companies (MNCs) operating in the transitional economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) expatriate and local managers continue to ask the following question: “How can we effectively manage the available human resources from our subsidiaries or assignees from the corporate centre?” A model of human resource (HR) practices in the subsidiary units of MNC’s in Hungary was developed from a review of the literature, extensive professional experience in the region and an interview-based survey at 42 subsidiaries of large multinational companies. This model describes the evolution of different HR variables in the light of external (macro) and internal (firm specific) factors.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: M16, M51, M52 és M54

• A munkaerő-piaci intézmények hatásai a foglalkoztatásra szektorális megközelítésben

  27-41

  Domician Mate

  Views:

  133

  Recently, there have been serious debates attempting to explain the role of institutions and their interactions as they might influence the impact of economic growth on employment. However, essentially no clear theoretical consensus has yet emerged and several unanswered problems remain. From this point of view, one interesting question is how institutions matter, and also what kind of characteristics they should have in economies. In our estimations ws followed a sectoral approach to identify the main features of institutions. In order to demonstrate short and lon run economic processes we use an error-correction method to analyze how certain intitutions and their interactions determine employment growth in different market-and non-market oriented branches. All in all, we demonstrate that unions, minimum wages and unemployment benefits have influenced employment in different ways.

  JEL classification: J21, J45, E02.

• A német transzferrendszer mint a gazdasági visszaesés okozója

  Agnes Orosz

  Views:

  172

  According to the theory of optimal currency areas the most important advantage of monetary integration is its positive effect on economic growth. However, examining Germany we can notice that since German reunification economic growth and the convergence between East and West Germany has slowed down. These facts show that the operation of the German currency union is not optimal and its performance has not improved over the last twenty years. The criteria of the optimal currency area theory is endogenous due to the recent development of the theory. This means that a country is more likely to satisfy the criteria for entry into a curreny union ex post than ex ante. In the case of Germany, examining the trends of economic growth we can conclude the the German currency union has not become optimal in the last two decades. These facts raise the puzzling question of what are the specific circumstances hindering the improvement if Germany's monetary union despite the endogeneity of the optimal currency area criteria. To answer this question the study examines the interactions between monetary and political integration with special attention to the issues of fiscal policy. According to the study the German transfer system and the dependency on transfers explain the discrepancy between theory and empirics.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E42, E62, E63, F01, F31, F36

• Integration of the CEE agri-food sector into the EU: What does trade theory and empirical evidence tell us?

  62-77

  Imre Ferto

  Views:

  135

  The article provides an overview on the main results of empirical research into the Integration of the CEE agri-food sector into the EU. Contrary to early expectations, countries in the region have not become major agri-food exporters. We can observe great diversity in trade specialisations, the patterns of intra-industry trade and price and quality competitiveness among countries and major product groups. These outcomes derive mainly from the differences in relative factor endowments and the different initial conditions of the countries concerned. The recent theoretical and empirical developments in international
  trade may help us to better understand the agri-food trade integration of new member states.

  JEL classification: Q12

• The Economic Theory of Clubs

  64-85

  Nora Ilona Elek

  Views:

  160

  Defining club goods allows an analysis of goods that possess neither pure public goods nor pure private goods characteristics. This is the main significance of the economic theory of clubs. The present paper categorises club good among goods in general on the basis of the relevant literature, and specifies the core elements of a definition of clubs and club goods. Then, by summarizing the most important articles on the subject, this paper delineates fundamental questions and models of club theory. Finally, supporting the relevant practical issues of club theory, this study describes economic fields where the theory has been applied.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: H41, H49

• Regulatory Coherence and Economic Growth

  33-54

  Pal Czegledi

  Views:

  138

  The paper is aimed at examining differences in market regulation across countries. Its starting point is the puzzle that poor countries apply more regulatory measures than rich ones do, although it has been empirically shown that those countries that regulate less grow faster. To explain this contradiction, the paper introduces the concept of regulatory coherence, and tries to explain the differences in this concept, together with the differences in the general level of regulation. The main argument is that regulatory coherence as well as the general level of regulation is dependent on the external, broad institutional system, because this affects the incentives of the regulators. The paper tries to support this theiretical argument empirically by a cluster analysis.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: B53, M13, L51

• A kulturális és kreatív iparágak a világ legfrekventáltabb régióiban

  Anett Galyasz

  Views:

  188

  This study touches on and organises the definition of the creative industry, creativity and the differences in terminologies used within the creative economy. These help to form and idea of which areas different countries or regions consider dominant from the developmet point of view. Beyond this, the study describes the attempts to map out the conceptual system of the creative economy and its statistical measurement. It therefore examines the statistical, economical and social characteristics of the creative industries, in accordance with the Europe 2020 Strategy and other professional documents. It aims to provide a comparative analysis of different regions' creative industries. Lastly, regarding to Hungary, it defines future tasks.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: Z1

• Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime: the Role of Optimum Currency Area Theory

  21-40

  Julius Horvath

  Views:

  95

  This lecture deals with the problem of the choice of exchange rate regime for fiat and fully convertible currencies. We begin with a review of different types of exchange rate regimes and discuss the difference between de jure and de facto regimes. We also briefly talk about how classification of exchange rate regimes leads to different interpretations of the relationship between regime and macroeconomic performance. Afterwards we give a short discussion of the vanishing intermediate exchange rate regime hypothesis. In the second part of the lecture we mention five different approaches to the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime and provide a general overview of the literature on optimum currency areas.

• Economic Freedom and the Process of Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on a New Measure

  5-30

  Judit Kapás

  Pál Czeglédi

  Views:

  315

  This paper, relying on a conceptualization of economic freedom in terms of kinds of government actions, develops a new measure of economic freedom. However, this is not art for art’s sake; instead, it allows us to provide an explanation for how particular institutions of economic freedom enhance economic development, a view upon which scholars agree. We develop two concepts related to economic freedom, namely the freedom-compatible and freedom-non-compatible institutions and use them as tools in an analysis of the process of economic growth, especially the relationship between economic freedom and long-run income. The major argument is that freedom-compatible institutions are primary determinants of income, while freedom-non-compatible institutions depend upon them and are partly the outcomes of the growth process itself, a fact which is explained by the Misesian theory of interventionism. Our regression analyses support our theoretical insights.

  JEL Classification: B53, H10, O10

• A literature review of Happiness and Economics and guide to needed research

  117-131

  Thomas Wiese

  Views:

  602

  Happiness and Economics as a new branch of behavioural economics has had a major impact on economic theory and economic policy: Several studies have been published in the last 20 years in leading journals. Furthermore, several governments have decided to collect data about the well-being of their citizens. The author claims that utility cannot only be measured by the choices individuals do: Reported happiness and life satisfaction data is also an acceptable empirical estimate for individual utility. Consequently, happiness research can bear new knowledge and important understanding of human welfare. Therefore, this paper gives an overview of the existing literature. Methods and approach of scholars is critically analysed and shortcomings are discussed. Thereafter, findings on major economic issues like growth, unemployment and inflation are presented. Besides, governmental policy and implications for society are debated. Lastly, future research possibilities are mentioned.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Classification: D60 D63 I31

• Hungary's dependence on external financing

  145-156

  Monika Kuti

  Views:

  77

  This paper demonstrates that Hungary has been dependent on external financing for several decades. In the 1970s and 1980s, debt was prevelant in the external capital structure of the Hungarian economy, but since the transformation to a market economy internation equity finance has reahced a level of capital accumulation and plays a very complex role in export potential, debt srvicing capacity and the modernization of the country. This paper argues that in general the forced increase in domestic demand is not able to substitute for the inherent need to realize export surplus in a small open economy in the long run. In the subsystem of the real economy there is a self-financing circuit driven by foreign direct investments which can meet the economy's current liabilities and profit remittance requirements, while this circuit cannot compensate for the consequences of the soft budgeting constraints of the general government.

  JEL classification: H6, F4

• Trust as a Cost Reducing Factor

  74-84

  Anett Hodosi

  Views:

  192

  The current study analyzes the cost reducing feature of one of the well-researched informal institutions, trust. The micro level analysis is followed by a macro level approach, which is aimed at highlighting trust’s direct cost reducing element via transaction costs and its indirect effect through the legal system. As part of the latter an empirical evaluation of 25 European Union countries has been carried out regarding the connection between costs due to administrative burden and trust. On the one hand academic economic literature proves that trust reduces transaction costs, and on the other hand that the effectiveness of the legal system contributes to the decrease of transaction costs. According to our assumption the increase of the level of trust improves the effectiveness of the legal system and via this
  mechanism it supports the reduction of transaction costs.

  JEL classification: D02, E02