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An application of the error correction model in analyzing the long run equilibrium between Ghana’s exports and imports
57-62Views:120This study investigates the long-run relationship between Ghana’s exports and imports for the period of 1948 to 2012. Using the Engle Granger two-step procedure we find that Ghana’s exports and imports are cointegrated. However, the slope coefficients from the cointegration equations were not statistically equal to 1. Furthermore, application of the error correction model reveals that 1% increase in the imports will significantly result in 0.56% increase in exports, suggesting that the exports’ responsiveness to imports is low. The estimated error correction coefficient suggests that 32% of the deviation from the long run equilibrium relation is eliminated, leaving 68% to persist into the next period. These results suggest persistence in the trade deficit and an option of curbing the deficit is to re-order the relationship between imports and exports with a view to reducing imports demand. These results imply that though Ghana’s past macroeconomic policies have been effective in bringing its imports and exports into a long run equilibrium, it is yet to satisfy the sufficient condition for sustainability of foreign deficit.
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Comparing parametric and semiparametric error correction models for estimation of long run equilibrium between exports and imports
19-23Views:137This paper introduces the semiparametric error correction model for estimation of export-import relationship as an alternative to the least squares approach. The intent is to demonstrate how semiparametric error correction model can be used to estimate the relationship between Ghana’s export and import within the context of a generalized additive modelling (GAM) framework. The semiparametric results are compared to common parametric specification using the ordinary least squares regression. The results from the semiparametric and parametric error correction models (ECM) indicate that the error correction term and import variable are significant determinants of Ghana’s exports. On the basis of Akaike Information Criteria and Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) scores, it is found that the semiparametric error correction model provides a better fit than the widely used parametric error correction model for modeling Ghana’s export-import relationship. The results of the analysis of variance provide further evidence of nonlinearity in Ghana’s export and import relationship. In effect, this paper demonstrates the usefulness of semiparametric error correction model in the estimation of export – import relationship.
JEL code: C14, C18, C22, F10, F14
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Clasters and Correlations among the Eu Member States Regarding Agri-Food Foreign Trade
55-63Views:129The European Union has a significant role in international trade but this is largely in the area of industrial goods. However, in the case of some agricultural commodities the EU applies tariffs, bans, or different restrictive measures; it manages foreign trade in agricultural goods with many countries all over the world. On the other hand the member states do not contribute to the total trade of the EU to the same extent. In this study, a comparative analysis was performed in relation to the member states by means of data of Eurostat and Faostat. First, a multivariable correlation analysis was carried out in order to find the interrelation between the trade features of each country. In the second part of the study, a cluster analysis was carried out with almost the same component as in the foregoing, also in terms of the EU member states. It can be ascertained that the date of EU accession of a Member State as well as getting EU agricultural subsidies do not affect the agricultural foreign trade of the member states. Countries with significant agricultural production also export food commodities in larger quantities. Countries that have significant exports extra-EU also have larger imports in the case of both basic commodities and prepared food as well. As a result of the cluster analysis, it can be stated that the member states can be divided into specific groups according to the three examined aspects (food trade features, exports of commodities, imports of commodities). The following typical country groups can be divided as follows: non-trade countries, countries with larger trade extra-EU, agri-food exporter and importer countries, non-agri-food exporter and importer countries, primary commodity exporters and importers, and last but not least processed food exporters and importers as well.
JEL Classification: F10
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Competetiveness of the Montenegrin fruit and vegetables sector and recommendtations for impovement
69-75Views:84A number of facts, primarily including high fragmentation at all levels, weak vertical integration, limited dimensions in comparison to competitors poor technological level and unbalanced quality/price ratio make the sector weak, low competitive and exposed to international competition, reducing its capacity to capture any existing market potential. Almost all opportunities are frozen by prevailing weaknesses and threat impacts are exacerbated by a largely prevailing number of weaknesses. High production unit cost appears to be a major constraint to local supply market competitiveness. This situation appears to be mainly caused by general low levels of productivity – provoked by not adequate and up-to-date cultivation practices, reduced levels of input use, utilisation of old and, therefore, less performing varieties, and also farm management shortcomings. High losses from reduced availability of post-harvest facilities and equipment add up to the problem. The improvement of the sector is not easy. In other words, there is a lot to do for the Montenegrin sector operators to increase sales: tackle imports and increase market shares in the domestic market and abroad. Based on our research, we suggest that the Montenegrin fruit and vegetable sector should primarily aim at substituting imports, increasing domestic consumption and developing exports to the region (CEFTA countries) primarily via promising market opportunities. Based on our analyses of the state of affairs of the sector, the competitiveness and the market potentials, the recommendations for improvement competitiveness are outlined.
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Croatian wine market, support policy and specific obstacles to wine exports
19-22Views:146In this paper, analysis of Croatian wine sector in period 2006-2013 is conducted through the record of wine production, exports and imports together with Government support measures. In the light of Croatian EU membership together with opening of EU wine market and global wine market, recommendations for further discussion of support measures for small and medium winemakers are given.
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Poultry sector analysis in Albania
Views:241Meat production, in specific poultry meat is a very important product for protein and nutrition values for many consumers. With the urbanization of the population people’s diet is shifting towards meat overall, including processed poultry. This has increased the challenges of quality and control over the meat products. (RAIHAN AND MAHMUD, 2018) In general, poultry remains a problematic sector in Albania, with the most common issue being the quality and not the European Union standards and regulations. This paper analysis the egg and poultry products livestock and productions, importing and exporting trends on poultry products, and the potential of development of this sector in the single market of European Union by improving the sector. This study gives an overview in poultry subsector related to livestock and production, international trades, and their market trends. It highlights the supply chain in poultry that can be helpful for poultry businesses and government. It also provides valuable information regarding the impact of quality issues in international market, also the structure of the market for poultry is conducted. Also, the imports and exports on poultry subsector trends and comparison was conducted. The study also consisted of calculations of index number CPI, which indicates the changes in consumer purchasing power.
JEL code: D1
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Estimation of Armington elasticities: case of vegetables in Mongolia
Views:158Mongolian people often consume meat more than vegetable in diet due to traditional nomadic culture. Nowadays, the Mongolian people’s diet has been changing who consume more vegetables with associated urbanization (half of the population live in urban areas, mostly in the capital city). Even though vegetable consumption has been increased recently, the vegetable market is still a high reliance on imports and threatening national food security. Since 2016, the Mongolian government has especially paid attention to increasing vegetable's domestic production and substitution to import vegetables (Ministry of food and Agriculture, 2017). Therefore, this paper provided to substitution elasticity (the Armington elasticity) between import vegetables and domestic vegetables in Mongolia. Additionally, we estimated the home bias value of vegetables. The so-called Armington elasticities are widely used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis, which determines a degree of substitution between import goods and domestically produced goods. Several of the authors studied Armington elasticities at the product level. We choose six vegetables (such as potato, garlic and onion, tomato, carrot and turnips, cabbage, and cucumber) related to lack of information. The empirical result shows that the Armington elasticities in the long-run higher than the short-run with exception of potato which means that products are similar in the long-run. However, our estimated Armington elasticities are quite lower than the previous studies result which means that Mongolian people indicated more prefer home growing vegetables than import vegetables. Moreover, we found that the home bias value is high in the short-run even long -run, this appears to be a higher relative weight on home vegetables.
JEL code: F13, Q17, Q18
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Economics of GM crop cultivation
7-19Views:153Asynchronous approval of new GM crops across international jurisdictions is of growing concern due to its potential impact on global trade. Different countries have different authorisation procedures and, even if regulatory dossiers are submitted at the same time, approval is not given simultaneously (in some cases, delays can even amount to years). For instance, by mid-2009 over 40 transgenic events were approved or close to approval elsewhere but not yet approved – or not even submitted – in the EU.Yet, like some other jurisdictions,the EU also operates a zero-tolerance policy to even the smallest traces of nationally unapproved GM crops (so-called low-level presence). The resultant rejection of agricultural imports has already caused high economic losses and threatens to disrupt global agri-food supply chains. The risk that feed supplies could be affected by a low-level presence of non-EU approved GM material could be resolved if the EU allowed a tolerance for this, rather than operating a strict zero tolerance as now. The Commission has undertaken to come forward with a nonlegislative technical solution to address the difficulties created by a strict zero tolerance policy. To what extent this would be helpful will depend on the nature of the proposed solution.
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Hungarian endeavours for the enhancement of economic relations in Southeast Asia focusing on a new partnership with Vietnam
5-12Views:209Beyond a brief review of the economic integration process among the states of the ASEAN region, the authors of the present study aimed to examine and analyze the main economic, social and political characteristics of the Hungaro-ASEAN relations. The importance of the topic of this research is underlined by the fact that the Hungarian government considers big importance to the improvement of the foreign economic relations with Asian economies. This intention was expressed by a new foreign economic strategy „Eastern opening” announced by the government in 2012, even though the foreign trade statistical figures did not justify its success by now.The authors believe that increasing opening towards Asia serves Hungarian economic interests. Therefore, it is a right and desirable direction to proceed, they consider that in the background of the modest results there might be the insufficient knowledge of the market mechanisms, the actors of the local supply chains and the potential partners. They believe that in order to make the Hungarian foreign economic endeavours in this direction more successful a more thorough examination of the local characteristics – including the actual demand arising at the targeted markets - is necessary. This opinion is prevalent to not only the Asian „Giants”, like China, India and Japan, but also to smaller states, like the ASEAN members, which – together - in terms of population and economic performance – reach the dimensions of an economic great power as well.
Furthermore, the integration of the ten Southeast Asian countries develops rapidly, which is coupled by their increasing weight in the world trade. The dynamic economic and social development in the ASEAN region – and in parallel with this the growing demands and purchasing power - may encourage the Hungarian ventures in theory. However, there are still very few Hungarian entrepreneurs, who are ready to enter the market in the region and able in long run to operate there successfully. It is a well-known fact that the since the regime has changed in Hungary, foreign trade became strongly concentrated towards the EU members.
The ASEAN countries – because of the geographic distance and by other reasons - definitely cannot mean an alternative of the EU market, however in a certain extent they can relieve this one-sided concentration and may provide additional opportunities for the Hungarian export of goods, and rather to the export of Hungarian services and know-how. The ratio of the ASEAN region within the entire Hungarian foreign trade turnover is small nowadays, furthermore – according to the statistical figures – this region is rather an import resource for Hungary than being an export market. This fact – just itself – is should not be considered as problem. When the amount of the import exceeds the amount of exports, that means that it is more worthwhile to do business with suppliers from there countries than with others. By and large all this is prevalent to the field of the agricultural trade as well: Hungary imports a range of commodities which cannot be produced by domestic farmers or in Europe (spices, tropical fruits, etc.). It is obvious that the ASEAN region cannot be the major market for the Hungarian agricultural export, not even in long run. However, there are still a lot of opportunities to enlarge the turnover of goods and services and enhance the co-operation in this geographic region. In the last chapter, the authors outlined an example in case of Vietnam – co-operation of joint public warehousing of agricultural commodities – which may be a good example for the promising potential opportunities. In contrast with the majority of the ASEAN countries, the Hungaro-Vietnamese political and economic relations had started much earlier than the regime was changed in Hungary. However, the potential advantages arose from this fact – the network of connections and the sympathy of Vietnamese professionals graduated in Hungary, the reputation and popularity of Hungarian agricultural products and technologies, the achievements of R&D in the field of agriculture – could not be utilized from Hungarian side. Vietnam, however still preserved its socialist political establishment, but in terms of its economic development strategy and economic policy has gradually been standing on the basis of market orientation. Vietnam, with its population of ninety million shows a rapid and successful development and it means good opportunities even for Hungarian entrepreneurs. It would be a mistake to leave these potentials unused.JEL Classification: F14, Q17, R11, N75
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The motivations for the diversification of the Nigerian economy focusing on sustainable agriculture
7-13Views:198Agriculture is one of the major branches of the economy in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. It employs around 70% of the population and its contribution to the national GDP ranges around 45% (2012). In spite of the fact that most of the area is arable the majority of food, the Nigerian population consumes, comes from imports. The paper attempts to provide in insight to the reasons, why Nigeria could still not achievew self sufficiency from major food crops and livestock. Beyond the rapid growth of the population, one of the major reasons is the rich oil and natural gas reserves, the exploitation and export of which has been providing with the country with “easy cash” for the recent few decades. Another reason is that the agricultural holdings are small and scattered, and farming is carried out with simple tools and techniques. Modern and large-scale farms are not common. The political leadership and economic decision makers of the country already recognized the necessity of the development of the food and agricultural sector, which – contrary to the oil industry – would exercise a deep and positive impact on the rural society as well. Nigerian agriculture is being transformed towards commercialization at small, medium and large-scale enterprise levels.
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