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• Classical liberalism, democracy, and economic growth: a hypothesis about the Lipset hypothesis

  5-30

  Pál Czeglédi

  Views:

  263

  Does economic growth create democracy, as suggested by the proposition known as the Lipset hypothesis? According to this paper, for the Lipset hypothesis to be valid, it is sufficient for an ideological and a technological condition to be fulfilled. The ideological condition is that the political agenda-setting ideology should be classical liberalism, which can be characterised as combining an aversion towards democracy with a positive assessment of economic and civil liberties. The technological condition is that the country in question should be advanced enough in the technological sense, because in such a country there is no economic growth without innovation maintained by a free market for ideas. Logit regressions run with panel data show that in the period up until the early 20th century a higher per capita income increases the probability of a democratic regime change, but afterwards it does not. The explanation is that before the early 20th century the two conditions were met, but they were not met in those countries that were about to become democratic after the first two decades of the 20th century.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: D70, O11, O43

• European economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions

  45-60

  László Szigethy

  Views:

  176

  The study focuses on the short-term effects of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions. The research relies on panel data from the European Union member states. Based on carbon dioxide emissions-income elasticity, the study reveals wide differences in the growth rate of emissions, depending on whether the member state was a former socialist or a highincome country. The research also finds an asymmetric effect between periods of economic growth and recession in respect to emissions.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: Q56, O44

• The Effect of the Economic Crisis on Income Poverty in the Southern Great Plain Region

  61-75

  Eszter Siposne Nandori

  Views:

  132

  The paper examines the effect of the economic crisis and the related negative economic phenomena on the income poverty of those living in the Southern Great Plain region. The regional income poverty is examined using the poverty measures based on the income data of workers and wage earners. I then analyse how economic performance affects poverty measures. The analysis proves that not only the economic growth of the given county, but also the economic performance of the neighbouring counties have an effect on the poverty rate. Economic growth, however, is not enough to reduce the depth of poverty; therefore other measures to improve the conditions of the poor are also required. In the end, the spatial autocorrelation is examined in the Southern Great Plain region.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: I32, R12

• Az európai növekedési potenciál eróziója

  5-23

  Peter Halmai

  Views:

  108

  The potential growth rate in the EU Member States has been declining and lagging behind their competitors since the 1990's. Due to severe productivity problems in the EU (first of all the significant decrease in the total factor productivity dynamics) and the insufficient adaptation to the processes of globalisation, further remarkable and permanent decline in the potential growth rate is expected. Paradoxically the potential growth rate might decrease in the long run to a greater extent in the new Member States. As a result of the present global economic crisis new risks might appear. The riskss of the recurrence of shocks are significant. These factors project further erosion of the European growth potential. Integrated structural reforms and a comprehensive review of the European model are needed in order to overcome the unfavourable trends and put Europe on a more favourable growth path than the one indicated in this study.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: F15, F43

• ipari forradalom, avagy a modern gazdasági növekedés gyökereiről: A „miért éppen Anglia?” helyett a „miért történt meg egyáltalán?” kutatása (Joel Mokyr: A Culture of Growth. The Origins of the Modern Economy. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University

  103-108

  Judit Kapás

  Views:

  413

  Joel Mokyr gazdaságtörténész munkássága nem csak saját szakmai közösségében, de a közgazdaságtan más területein kutatók, elsősorban az intézményi közgazdászok között is széles körben ismert. Azonban széles szakmai ismertséggel jellemezni Mokyrt valójában „gyenge” állítás, hiszen kétségtelenül ő ma az egyik legjelentősebb gazdaságtörténeti kutató, egyike azon keveseknek, akik nagyon erős intézményi közgazdaságtani megközelítéssel „nyúlnak” a történelemhez. Kutatásaiban az ipari forradalom Európája áll a középpontban, amely a modern (tartós) gazdasági növekedést2 hozta el az emberiségnek. Mokyr fél tucatnyi könyvben és nagyon sok cikkben vagy könyvfejezetben fogalmazta meg azokat a kérdéseket, amelyek új gondolkodási utakat nyitottak a modern gazdasági növekedés okainak kutatásában, s természetesen válaszokat is adott ezekre.

• Interdependence between government redistribution and economic growth in the long run

  132-146

  Levente Nadasi

  Views:

  174

  The present paper aims to study changes in the degree of government redistribution with an institutional, historical, statistical and model-like approach. I investigate the impact of changes in redistribution on long-term economic growth in 30 European countries. It is generally stated that government spending/GDP ratio has been continuously increasing (in terms of trend) in Europe since the 1870s. I examine how the size of the states affects economic growth, and what other factors influence the long-run relationship between these two variables. My hypothesis is that in developed countries with high government
  redistribution it has been an impediment to economic growth in the long run. Finally, I illustrate this hypothesis with a statistical analysis of 30 European countries.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Classification: E66, H62, C10

• Szerződési szabadság és gazdasági növekedés az átmeneti országokban

  95-114

  Pal Czegledi

  Views:

  138

  A tanulmány a verseny gazdasági növekedésre gyakorolt hatásait vizsgálja, középpontba állítva a verseny szubjektivista (modern osztrák) felfogását. Legfontosabb következtetése az, hogy a verseny a vállalkozói felfedező folyamaton keresztül tud a legjobban érvényre jutni. Ennek alapján amellett érvel, hogy a versenynek eme aspektusa a gazdasági szabadsággal mérhető, és az átmenti országok esetében ennek nagyobb a szerepe, mint a fejlett és fejletlen országokban. Az elméleti következtetést a tanulmány panelelemzéssel támasztja alá.

  JEL (Journal of Economic Literature) kód: O12, O17, L14.

• The Development of Growth Accounting Techniques in the Mirror of Economic Growth

  85-103

  Levente Nadasi

  Views:

  160

  In this article we present the development of certain growth theories that model the main sources of growth. Since the elasticity of substitution – one of the most important parameters of production function – is not unity, as the Cobb-Douglas production function assumes, it can be different from a value of 1; hence we need a more general CES-type (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) production function. Another important question is the classification of factors of production. The elasticity of substitution is an efficiency factor as well, thus it receives special attention in the analysis. Finally we summarize the main papers that are mainly concerned with growth accounting, and try to answer the question of which factors play a significant or less significant role in economic growth. Growth accounting is strongly connected to growth theories so we refer back to growth theory at certain points.

  JEL classification: E13, O47

• Empirical analysis in the context of economic, technological and institutional development: the distinction between innovator and imitator countries

  3-21

  Julianna Csugány

  Views:

  204

  The driving force of economic growth is technological progress, which can be realized in two ways at the aggregate level. On the one hand, it can be a result of independent research and development, i.e. it can be realized in an innovation-driven manner. Alternatively, it can be the result of an adaptation from other countries, i.e. through imitation, which is a strategy that many countries employ successfully today. In both cases, it is the institutions, including both their formal and informal elements, which create the opportunity for technological progress. The aim of this study is to differentiate between the innovator and the imitator countries in order to highlight the differences in their institutions. The classification is done by a cluster analysis of countries, which is performed with the help of a technological and institutional environment index constructed by a principal-component analysis. The analysis confirms that economic, technological and institutional development are closely linked in the countries studied.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: O31, O33, O43

• A technológia szerepe a gazdasági növekedésben, ágazati megközelítésben

  61-74

  Domician Mate

  Views:

  134

  Ebben a rövid munkatanulmányban elsősorban a gazdasági növekedésben bekövetkezett változásokra koncentrálok. A kutatások1 során egyrészt arra a kérdésre keresem a választ, hogy ezek a változások – a vizsgált, 1976 és 2007 közötti időszakban – az úgynevezett teljes tényező-termelékenység (TFP) és a fizikai, valamint humán tőkeállomány változása miként járultak hozzá a kibocsátás növekedési üteméhez. A számításokat – a növekedés számvitel (growth accounting) alapján – néhány OECD tagországra vonatkozóan, illetve a technológia intenzitása szerint megkülönböztetett gépgyártási szektorokban végzem el. E mellett a panel regressziós módszertan segítségével azt vizsgálom, hogy a beruházási ráta és a foglalkoztatás alakulása hogyan befolyásolja ezekben az ágazatokban az egy munkavállalóra jutó kibocsátást (termelékenységet).

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kódok: E25, J24, L16.

• A gazdasági növekedés gyorsításának esélyei Magyarországon 2030-ig

  5-26

  Peter Mihalyi

  Views:

  136

  The regime change in 1989/1990 has not produced the expected result: Hungary has not been able to catch-up with the Western market economies. Can Hungary grow 2-3 times faster then its competitors during the next 20 years, as the present Hungarian government declared in its economic plans? Can Hungary improve its relative position and catch-up with the per capita GDP level of the EU-27 average by 2030? The conclusion of the paper is that this is very unlikely to happen. But there is ample room for accelerating productivity growth, and in this regard, every percentage difference counts enormously in the long-term. Three factors of production are analyzed: the natural-physical-geographical endowments of Hungary (N), Labour (L) and the capital stock (C). The following new findings are discussed. First, contrary to the widely held view, the amount of labour currently used by the Hungarian economy is not low in international comparison. The education of the workforce is also adequate. The problem is its allocation: too many workers are employed in low productivity, small firms. The only way forward is to promote the concentration of enterprises, to support the increase in the number of medium-sized and large firms. Second, the rate of domestic savings needs to be increased considerably, to allow for a low-cost financing of investments. In turn, this requires a substantial reform in three areas: healthcare, pensions and higher education. As long as the welfare state exists in its present form and these three spending items are largely financed by the state, one cannot reasonably expect households to save and accumulate families" long-term reserves in financial assets. But before these changes happen the political alite must accept that the obstacles to productivity growth have to be removed from the legal and political stuctures.

  JEL classification: E66, O47, O50, O52

• Business Intelligence from a Strategic Perspective

  49-70

  Gyorgy Bogel

  Attila Papp

  Views:

  469

  Business Intelligence is one of the fastest growing sectors of corporate informatics today. The study describes the history of the related approaches, models and applications, starting from the beginning of the last century. The most important growth engines are highlighted and the strategic role of business intelligence is explained in detail. Both the supply and the demand side of the BI market are analysed and key developments and trends are explained. Special attention is paid to explaining and modelling the intensive acquisition activity of the recent past, and to the potential consequences of the growing need for integration. New market and technology trends changing the application landscape are analysed at the end.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: M10, M15, M40

• The examination of the relationship between foreign working capital investment and economic growth on the basis of European examples

  150-166

  Eva Nagy

  Views:

  122

  In the past decade several studies have been published in Hungary as well on the role of foreign working capital investment and the economic effects of the presence of multinational companies. This paper explores what role working capital investments (their type, size etc.) have played in the transformation and modernization of Hungary and in her integration into world trade. After a short theoretical and historical survey it presents the experience of some European countries which the literature often mentions by comparing them to Hungary, for on the basis of their size, population, geographical location and level of economic development they have often met similar economic policy dilemmas and choice-making. Then it examines what effects foreign working capital influx had on the given economies and - ina wider sense - on their social development, and in addition, what kinds of undesirable consequences it had.

• The Complexity of Technological Progress: Empirical evidence in the European Union

  23-34

  Julianna Csugany

  Views:

  161

  The author examines the role of institutions in technological change on the basis of an understanding of the macroeconomic context of technological progress. The empirical study aims to demonstrate the macroeconomic relationship between economic growth, technological progress and institutions, using data from the member states of the European Union. This paper constructs a statistical model which accommodates the complexity of technological progress and contributes to the analysis of its different aspects. It concludes that the elements of the technological environment and an emphasis on the protection of property rights play an essential role in understanding the effects of technological progress on economic growth.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classifications: O11, O34, O43

• Economy of Austria

  125-148

  Kitti Vass

  Views:

  159

  In my article I examine a member state of the European Union, the open and federal Austria, which can be considered as an example of a corporate economy. During the reconstruction period following the Second World War the Austrian economy was characterized by a frantic economic expansion. After the oil crisis, an incomparably low inflation rate and low unemployment, and the more dynamic than average economic growth attracted attention to the country. Due to the intensified external economic interest, the Austrian model - namely the economic policy and establishment - was widely studied at this time. However, at the beginning of the 1980's some structural problems appearing in the economy contributed to slowdown in growth, until the political changes of the year 2000, which finally brought a new favourable turn in economic policy. I start with an examination of Austria's economic status after the Second World War, then the development, changes and role of the Austrian social partnership. I go on to analyze today's Austria from the point of view of the sustainable balanced budget, focusing on the financial circumstances of the state, such as the complex financial connections derived from federalism.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL): H62, H63

• Innovációk a DE KTK konferenciáján: Beszámoló a Technológiai fejlődés, innováció és gazdasági növekedés konferenciáról (Debrecen, 2008. november 28.)

  143-149

  Istvan Kovacs

  Views:

  93

• Human capital and institutions in the early models of endogenous theory of growth

  135-149

  Pal Czegledi

  Views:

  228

  The endogenous theory of growth, or, as it is often called, the new theory of growth has become a fully-developed theory within about twenty years. The original goal of the theory was to offer better explanations for facts than traditional theories. However, this was only partly achieved. If this is so, then what are the proceeds of the whole theory? The study aims at proving that though the endogenous theory does not offer a much better explanation for facts, it has deepened our understanding of economic growth and incorporated factors in the formal theory, which so far have only been dealt with by "softer" branches of the theory of growth.

• Role of the organizational factors in the success of Hungarian SMEs

  108-125

  Aniko Almasi

  Views:

  748

  This paper analyses the success of the Hungarian SME sector from the aspect of competitiveness, innovation, organizational background and the role of the leader/owner. The author summarizes the organizational innovation specialties of the SMEs based on four empirical researches and own case-study. The conclusion is the organizational innovation characteristically fades into the background of SME operation, development purposes and strategy. The role of the firm owner-leader is essential in these topics. Meanwhile the inflexibility of the organization, loyalty of the employees, labor market disadvantages, the knowledge level and competency of the human resources, its effect on the efficiency are often limit the expansion. These factors have significant influence on the success and competitiveness of the company. Therefore, the paper analyses the organizational innovation and background according to the company success, and the leader-based decision-making procedures, and processes, and evaluates the results of secondary research based on these. The novelty of the empirical research method is the search for GAPs between the leader and the organization and their correlation with success and attitude towards innovation.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: M14

• The suspicion of Dutch Disease in Russia

  103-124

  Tamas Borko

  Views:

  192

  The main statement of the paper is the suspicion that Russia carries the symptoms of Dutch disease. The main justifications behind it are the appreciation of real exchange rates, the deterioration of the performance of the manufacturing sector and the improvement of service sector results. However it is difficult to prove the determining factors behind these processes, so the conclusion that Russia has this ailment has to be treated with caution. As the Dutch disease is only one of the determining factors of the resource curse hypothesis, in the case of Russia other relevant aspects may also play a significant role, such as, inter alia, continuous and considerable corruption, the weaknesse of democratic political system, a protectionist economic policy and a low level of competition, especially in the energy sectors. All of the reasons behind the paradox of the plenty type resource curse phenomenon, and among them the Dutch disease, can jeopardise long-run growth sustainability.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: F31, L60, L72, Q32, Q33

• The possibilities and impossibilities of Hungarian public debt

  26-42

  Laszlo Torok

  Views:

  374

  The topic of the present study is the hypothetical, ex ante nature examination of Hungary’s gross consolidated public debt. The study defines the most important concepts and correlations, the judgments on the different degrees of public debt, the development of the Hungarian public debt, its main stages and characteristics. The study then presents a macroeconomic framework, which can predict the future output values of the public debt commensurable to GDP, depending on the parameters of the main explanatory variables. The establishment of input values of the main macroeconomic aggregates, as endogenous variables, is based on the author’s extrapolation and other empirical studies. Applying these, the values of the future public debt rates can be forecasted. The present study intends to show that the explanatory (economic) variables currently have well established values, which, if inserted into the chosen macroeconomic forecasting framework, show that the Hungarian public debt compared to GDP can be reduced to the desired 50 percent level. As the result of ten scenarios a more or less pessimistic, but in the case of one scenario, an optimistic, picture emerged concerning the future state of gross public debt.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classifications: C53, H68

• Before and after recession: a snapshot of the infocom industry

  41-58

  Gyorgy Bogel

  Views:

  135

  Az infokommunikációs szektor növekedése igen gyors volt a kilencvenes években, majd ez a trend 2000 második felében megtört. Az iparág recessziója azóta véget ért, ugyanakkor azonban számos jelből arra következtethetünk, hogy a fejlődésében új szakasz kezdődött. Ezt a periódust a korábbinál lassúbb növekedés, az építkezés felől a használat felé való fordulás, a korábbinál realistább, józanabb vásárlói és befektető magatartás, a piac beérése és konszolidációja, a termékek és szolgáltatások tömegcikkesedése, a szállítói oldal vállalatainak racionalizálása, a földrajzi munkamegosztás átrendeződése jellemzi. Eközben kiszélesednek és elmélyülnek az új technológiához való alkalmazkodás folyamatai. Mindezek a jellemzők és trendek megfelelnek annak a leírásnak, amit a venezuelai Carlota Perez az innovációs ciklusok „összerendeződési korszakának” nevez.

• Regional factors affecting the rushed and balanced growth of territorial capital

  62-80

  György Jóna

  Views:

  181

  Adapting the precepts of Kornai’s rushed economic growth theory, this paper compares the harmonic and rushed growth of territorial capital in the Hungarian sub-regions between 2004 and 2010. In the empirical analysis, the article applies the methodology of the concept of territorial capital. The empirical results indicate that the causes of the rushed growth of territorial capital can be found in underdeveloped infrastructural capital and the simultaneous development of socioeconomic inequalities. The effects of the rushed growth of territorial capital could be controlled and eliminated by adequately integrating tools of regional development, economic development and public policy.
  

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kódok: C62, C68, Q01, R58

• A foglalkoztatásban és termelékenységben bekövetkezett permanens szektorális változások

  117-137

  Domicián Mate

  Views:

  131

  A tanulmányban a hosszú távon jelentkező ún. „munkahelyetlen” növekedés (jobless growth) kérdésköréből kiindulva elsősorban a munkapiac foglalkoztatási és termelékenységi struktúrájában létrejövő permanens szektorális változásokra (sectoral shifts) koncentráltunk. Vizsgálódásaink során először arra a kérdésre kerestük a választ, hogy a foglalkoztatás struktúrájában bekövetkezett változások a térbeli (az EU-15 országaiban), avagy a szerkezeti (ágazati) tényezőkben játszottak jelentősebb szerepet a vizsgált (1990–2003) időszakban. Mindamellett a munkapiaci termelékenységben bekövetkezett elmozdulásokon keresztül néhány elméleti hipotézist teszteltünk, nevezetesen a strukturális változásokból adódó nyereségek és veszteség (structural bonus & burden) hipotéziseit az ún. hatásarány-elemzésen keresztül. További empirikus vizsgálatokban kitértünk még a szektorális termelékenységben bekövetkezett változásokra különböző képzettségbeli és technológiai összevetések tükrében.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: J21, J24, L16.

• Openness and growth

  126-134

  Peter Foldvari

  Views:

  128

  The classical theory of commerce encourages the liberalization of international trade on the grounds that this contributes considerably to the growth of welfare. This study sets out to explore this hypothesis empirically by analysing the relationship between external market openness and per capita GDP examined in twenty-two OECD countries between 1950 and 2000. The results bear out to support the existence of a positive correlation. The novelty of the study is that the author pays special attention to the temporal aspects of the interaction between openness and per capita GDP which can be characterised in terms of a nonstationary and nonlinear trend, as expected.

• Prognosis of the Roma population in Hungary by region till 2061

  39-74

  Laszlo Hablicsek

  Maria Hablicsekne Richter

  Tamas Langi

  Views:

  1040

  In our paper we try to give an overall picture about the countrywide and regional demographic characteristics of the Hungarian Roma population, to make a roll-forward calculation of the next decades until 2061 by region. It indicates the actuality of the study that in the last decades the population of the Hungarian Roma minority and its rate according to the whole Hungarian population permanently and materially increased. In the next decades in both further growth is expected, but the speed of this growth will be slower and slower. The fertility and the mortality of the Roma population will decrease, life expectancy will increase, these result in the increase of the rate of the aged population. Out estimation indicates that until 2061 the age pyramid of the gypsies’ changes, it will be more and more similar to the present one of the whole Hungarian population.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: C82, J11, J13, J19