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Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production
79-85Views:165This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management in the decision support of crop production. Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays an important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well. Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop structure, by which income-sensitivity can be taken into account, but it does not reflect the behavior to risk. This deficiency can be avoided by using risk programming models. By the complementary usage of linear programming and risk programming models the optimizing and adaptive planning can be executed. It often causes a problem for the producers to decide when and how much to sell to realize a maximum turnover. The decision is mostly influenced by the selling prices, but also important factors are the financial status of the business, the amount of credit and its conditions, the stock piling opportunities and costs, and the short-term investment opportunities as well. For the resolution of the problem I set up a dynamic, simultaneous financial model by which the system-conceptual analysis of the above mentioned factors and a sound decision-making can be executed.
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On corporate risk management practices in Romanian companies
85-89Views:157The purpose of this paper is to provide an understanding of corporate risk management practices in Romanian companies, by investigating the risk management approaches Romanian companies take. Our main findings are that Romanian managers are not aware of the magnitude of exposure their companies have to various types of risk – hazard, operational, financial and strategic risks, while they are able to manage rather well all these risks, even the ones that have the lowest impact on the business. At the same time, risk management systems employed by Romanian companies are rather inarticulate and based on traditional approaches towards risk management, which might represent by itself a major source of risk, given the complexity of the business environment they face.
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A Quantitative Assessment of the Rurality and an Efficiency Analysis of Emigration in Romania
39-46Views:206In Romania, as in many other Eastern European countries, the early 1990s were marked by a significant emigration from the countryside as a consequence of the transition from a centralised economy to an open one and due to key changes in the political framework. The permanent emigration has predominantly been concentrated in rural areas where multiple socio-economic variables such as GDP per capita, unemployment, and public financial subsidies aimed at supporting people at risk of severe deprivation and poverty have all had a direct effect on rural depopulation. The rurality is a complex theoretical construct comprising many items and variables and is, therefore, difficult to define in a concise manner. The aim of this paper is to assess the evolution of emigration in Romania between 2001 and 2016 through a quantitative approach, estimating an index of rurality for the same period composed of a set of socio-economic variables having a direct or indirect nexus to it. In the first phase of research, a matrix of correlation and a multiple regression model has been used in order to estimate the direct links among all investigated variables. Following the quantitative methodology, in the second phase Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) has been used in order to assess the main cause-effect relationships among a few selected endogenous variables and a set of socio-economic items. Furthermore, using a non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) output-oriented model, this research has assessed the efficiency in terms of permanent emigration from Romania estimated as an output to minimise and not as an output to maximise, as investigated by traditional efficiency approaches. In terms of efficiency, financial subsidies allocated by national authorities and the level of per capita Gross Domestic Product have acted directly on the level of emigration. The index of rurality in 2016 has been influenced in particular by he pluriactivity in farms in terms of agritourism, the dimension of farms in terms of land capital endowment, and the level of GDP per capita.
JEL Classification: Q10; Q18
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Price risk management using by a specified futures model
97-101Views:106The principal achievement of this paper is to introduce the operation of a specified ‘Futures’ model and it’s practice for decision makers of financial institutes through an example based on the price data’s of grain futures market from EU assessment 2004 to these days in Hungary. Based on a theoretical foundation, the calculation model was developed in order to assist short and long-term marketing decisions. The economical basis of the model is the combinative use of two market institutions: public warehousing and futures market. This electronically developed and working model ‘using excel background ‘allows all of the participants of the market: producers, consumers,banks and traders, to use this model in immediate calculations. In addition it helps in order to establish the own business strategy. The model can be used to analyze price influencing factors therefore; it can also be used for policy-making decisions for market participants as well as banks dealing with trade financing activity.
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Regulatory challenges of innovation in food and agriculture market authorization requirements for new foods
137-142Views:163Regulatory authorities face the challenge to strike a fair balance between the interests of consumers to ensure the safety of innovative foods and agricultural products and the interest of innovative businesses.Worldwide prior authorization schemes are applied. This contribution explores characteristics, pros and cons of such schemes. It identifies concerns but also best practices that may contribute to improving food safety without unduly hampering innovation.
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Climate change impact on crop production in Central Asian Countries
75-82Views:216Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogeneous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model is used for ex-ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The bio-economic farm model is calibrated to ten farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.
JEL classification: Q11, Q18
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Characteristics of physical activity at the university of Debrecen
115-120Views:207The assessment of physical activity is a much-researched field. Physical inactivity has negative consequences. In the development of diseases, a key risk factor is insufficient exercise. Emphasizing the relation between physical activity and health is a constantly discussed matter. UD-FCSNE students will play a key role in educating children for a healthy lifestyle. They will become teachers and specialists. Mapping students’ motives concerning physical activity, we can see the order of motive factors and the factors influencing the different age groups. The majority of students exercise less than 30 minutes per day. Most of them do leisure sporting. To increase physical activity we must provide leisure sporting facilities, based on the population’s needs. Maintaining and increasing fitness are chief motivational factors, unlike expectations and competition. The order of motives is significantly different. These differences occurred in five categories. There is a difference in physical activity between full and part-time students.
JEL code: Z2
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