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• Investment analysis of a piglet producer farm – a Hungarian case study

  141-152

  István Szűcs

  László Szántó

  László Szőllősi

  Views:

  288

  The pig population in Hungary was about 8 million in 1990, while this number dropped to only 2.8 million by 2018. The previously so successful integrated domestic pig farming has almost completely disappeared and most of the smaller farms still operating in the 1990s are no longer functioning. At present, a process of concentration can be observed, which was accompanied by the further specialization of pig farming. The main profile of most pig farms is fattening, but there is a smaller number of farms in Hungary today specialized for piglet production, the successful operation of which requires significantly more expertise and more complex technology.

  The main aim of this study is to present the production and economic indicators of a pig farm specialized in piglet production in Hungary as a result of a greenfield investment in the current economic environment, on a case study basis. For this purpose, an economic simulation was prepared based on primary data collection, operating on a deterministic basis, modelling the production and economic processes of the farm. The performed calculation does not derive the economic indicators of the activity from accounting records, but assigns the prices of natural inputs used on the basis of technological data. Primary data and information collection (e.g. technological data, input and output prices, unit cost items, etc.) took place between 2018-2019.

  At the purchase prices of pigs in the last two years, which have increased significantly due to the African Swine Fever (ASF), the majority of pig farms in Hungary have an outstanding profit-making capacity. The physical efficiency indicators of the analysed pig farm are almost identical to the average data of such farms in the Netherlands, which has one of the most developed pig industry. The income of the examined pig farm at farm level is about 734 thousand EUR, i.e. 232 EUR per sow. Moreover, this activity is profitable even without subsidies. As a result, the greenfield investment pays off in the 8th year by default (average scenario). The investment has a Net Present Value (NPV_r=3%) of EUR 2,609 thousand for 10 years, an Internal Rate of Return of 8.5%, and a Profitability Index (PI_r=3%) of 1.3. At the same time, risk factors such as sales prices, output and capacity utilization, and feed costs should be taken into consideration as in extreme cases the return on investment may be unfavourable (pessimistic scenario).

  JEL code: D24, M11, Q12

• Integrated agribusiness in the dairy industry of Ukraine: main characteristics and success factors

  59-68

  Anna Gereles

  Oleksandr Galych

  Views:

  140

  Ukraine belongs to the TOP 20 global producers of milk. Despite its position, the Ukrainian dairy industry is suffering from a permanent deficit of raw milk supplied for processing. on average, in 2007–2011 over half of the produced raw milk did not reach the processors. one of the reasons behind this lasting trend is that the structure of initial production of raw milk is dominated by households (having a share of 80%); the latter produce milk mostly for their own consumption and leftovers are sold at marketplaces where they can get more attractive prices. nevertheless, already today we observe results of largescale investments into the industrial production of milk made in the last few years. This article stresses an important place of the dairy industry in the agriculture of Ukraine, as it provides the population of vital food products, many of which are strategic in the export potential. Authors present essential characteristics of the concepts “agro-industrial integration” and “agroholding”, discloses their role and place in the agrarian sector of the economy, and justifies the necessity of the creation an integrated production in the Ukrainian dairy sub-complex. The study aims at identification and description of latest trends in Ukraine’s dairy market. Moreover, authors present a successful Ukrainian example of Milkiland N.V. as one of the TOP 5 players in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) dairy market.

• Climate change impact on crop production in Central Asian Countries

  75-82

  Anna Viter

  Sándor J. Zsarnóczai

  László Vasa

  Views:

  216

  Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogeneous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model is used for ex-ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The bio-economic farm model is calibrated to ten farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.

  JEL classification: Q11, Q18