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• Poultry sector analysis in Albania

  Dejsi Qorri

  Views:

  548

  Meat production, in specific poultry meat is a very important product for protein and nutrition values for many consumers. With the urbanization of the population people’s diet is shifting towards meat overall, including processed poultry. This has increased the challenges of quality and control over the meat products. (RAIHAN AND MAHMUD, 2018) In general, poultry remains a problematic sector in Albania, with the most common issue being the quality and not the European Union standards and regulations. This paper analysis the egg and poultry products livestock and productions, importing and exporting trends on poultry products, and the potential of development of this sector in the single market of European Union by improving the sector. This study gives an overview in poultry subsector related to livestock and production, international trades, and their market trends. It highlights the supply chain in poultry that can be helpful for poultry businesses and government. It also provides valuable information regarding the impact of quality issues in international market, also the structure of the market for poultry is conducted. Also, the imports and exports on poultry subsector trends and comparison was conducted. The study also consisted of calculations of index number CPI, which indicates the changes in consumer purchasing power.

  JEL code: D1

• MONTE CARLO SIMULATION FOR STRESS TESTING ENDOGENOUS PROFITABILITY FACTORS DURING POLYCRISIS: A CASE STUDY FROM THE POULTRY SUBSECTOR

  Máté Varga

  Patrícia Becsky-Nagy

  Views:

  64

  Can historical company data help estimate future performance during economic uncertainty? This study investigates whether past business cycles can be used to estimate profitability in the context of a polycrisis – a period marked by overlapping disruptions such as avian influenza, COVID-19 trade restrictions, extreme weather events, and rising feed and energy prices. These shocks have severely impacted agro-related industries, such as poultry processing. Focusing on three Central European poultry processing companies, we use Monte Carlo simulations for stress testing their profitability for the 2023 period, aiming to support financial planning by analysing firm-specific, endogenous, management-controllable factors. Return on Sales (ROS) and Return on Equity (ROE) are used to evaluate profitability, incorporating variables such as euro exchange rates in the case of export-driven firms. Our results indicate that Company “A,” characterized by stable operations, had the lowest probability of negative ROE, while Companies “B” and “C” demonstrated greater volatility. We found that the model provides a good estimate of the factors affecting the companies’ profitability that are directly or indirectly reflected in their accounting data. Indicating that the test could be a valuable tool for supporting managerial decision-making in financial planning, though further refinements are needed to enhance accuracy.