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Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA: International tourist arrivals to India and Thailand
43-61Views:117Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment and this method was developed by the Census Bureau in the United States. It has been continually improved since the 1960s, and it is used by many statistics agencies and central banks. The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to India for 2007-2010 and also these data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010. From these period the results confirm that the best forecasting method based on the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1), X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for India and the best forecasting method based on this method is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for Thailand. Furthermore this method predict that international tourism arrivals to India for 2007–2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to India will be 5,079,651 million, 5,652,180 million, 6,224,480 million and 6,796,890 million, respectively. Also this method predict that international tourism arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to Thailand will be 12,211,033 million, 12,699,532 million, 13,187,591 million, 13,674,669 million and 14,161,998 million, respectively. If these results can be generalized for future year, then it suggests that both the India government sector and the Thailand government sector also the private tourism industry sector of these country should prepare to receive increasing numbers of international tourist arrivals both to India and Thailand in this period.
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Cost analysis of pig slaughtering: A Hungarian case study
121-129Views:203The scale of Hungarian slaughterhouses is small in international comparison and the cost of slaughter and cutting a pig of average live weight is relatively high at 16.1-19.4 EUR on average. The aim of this study is to evaluate the cost of pig slaughter and cutting through the case study of a medium-scale plant in Hungary. Based on data from the enterprise, a calculation was performed in relation to the “output” quantity of pig slaughter and cutting, as well as its value and the cost and cost structure of processing. The capacity of the examined plant and its utilisation were analysed and cost reductions were estimated for various increases of output. In 2015, the direct cost of slaughter and cutting was 18.9 EUR per pig for the medium-scale plant which processed 100 thousand pigs. When the purchase cost of pigs is excluded, labour costs accounted for the highest share (30%) of costs, followed by services (29%) and energy costs (21%). For this reason, the level of wages and employer’s contributions has a rather high significance. Analysis showed that significant increases in Hungarian minimum wage and guaranteed living wage in 2017 resulted in an estimated 7% increase in the cost of slaughter and cutting compared to 2015, despite the decrease of contributions. The capacity utilisation of the plant was a low 28% when compared to a single 8-hour shift considered full capacity. The cost of slaughter and cutting was estimated to be reduced to 14.2-17.0 EUR per pig if the plant operated at full capacity. This may be considered a lower bound estimate of cost because there are numerous restricting factors on optimising capacity utilisation, such as: 1) number of live animals available for purchase and related logistics; 2) cooling capacity availability; 3) labour availability; 4) market position of the enterprise and potential for marketing additional pig meat products. Enterprises of this scale are recommended to consider producing more value-added products and, accordingly, investing in product development.
JEL Classification: Q13, Q19
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Examination of the Hungarian esport ecosystem throgh international examples
96-101Views:338Esport was very close to be medal awarded competition at the 2022 Asian Games, finally esport excluded from the Asian Games but all is not lost that is delayed. We have come a long way since the first real esport tournament, for which the first-place prize was a year-long Rolling stone magazine subscription. Nowadays in the digitalized world esport develops faster than any other sport, and plays an important role in the entertainment industry as well. Stadiums are crowded, streams are watched by millions worldwide, and the pace doesn’t seem to ease up in the future either. As Hungary is trying to step onto international waters, our main goal was to make a comprehensive review of the Hungarian esport ecosystem analyzing the national picture of electronic sport. Although there is not much domestic literature regarding the topic, as a secondary research we choose to use available Hungarian papers to piece together a comprehensive picture. We move on step by step through the biggest stakeholders: the publishers, the biggest domestic competitions, the most successful players, platforms, brands and of course the fans in domestic circles.
JEL code: Z29
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Policy challenges for food, energy and environmental security
15-25Views:116Limited land is available globally to grow crops for food and fuel. There are direct and indirect pressures on forests and other lands to be converted from growing food for feedstock to be used for biofuel production. The balance of evidence indicates there will probably be sufficient appropriate land available to meet demands for both food and fuel, but this needs to be confirmed before global supply of biofuel is allowed to increase significantly. There is a future for a sustainable biofuels industry, but feedstock production must avoid encroaching on agricultural land that would otherwise be used for food production. And while advanced technologies offer significant potential for higher greenhouse gas (GHG) savings through biofuels, these will be offset if feedstock production uses existing agricultural land and prevents land-use change. GHG savings can be achieved by using feedstock grown mainly on marginal land or that does not use land, such as wastes and residues. To ensure that biofuels deliver net GHG benefits, governments should amend, but not abandon, their biofuel policies in recognition of the dangers from indirect effects of land-use changes. Large areas of uncertainty remain in the overall impacts and benefits of biofuels. International action is needed in order to improve data, models and controls, and to understand and to manage effects.
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Measuring efficiency of intellectual capital in agriculture sector of Vojvodina
25-31Views:140During three-hundred-year history of the market economy, the main sources of wealth creation have changed from the natural resources (mainly land and relatively unskilled labor with the exception of the master craftsman), tangible material assets (buildings, machinery and equipment, funds) to intangible assets (knowledge and information of all types) that may be contained in the people, organizations, or physical resources. In the later period of the twentieth century, science has acquired the features of direct production force. The term direct implies that unlike the relationship which existed between science and production in the IXX century, where scientific advances was incorporated through the physical labor in the tools, which, in turn, created new value through the physical labor, the relationship between science and production has become all direct, immediate, because the scientific advances allowed the funds to be produced with less labor and allowed funds itself to become "smarter" and as such to require less human intervention and human physical labor in the final production process.As a result, the need for physical labor continuously declined with time, and the application of labor is moved from direct production to processes of preparing and organizing production. Also, a large part of today's knowledge that is used in production is not embodied in machinery, and the effects of this are immense.
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Examination of the sustainability of the sport facilities in the Northern Great Plain Region of Hungary
111-117Views:157Developing sport into an industry has become a fundamental interest and a noticeable approach in Hungary in recent years. A socalled economic orientation can also be observed in the field of leisure time sports, which was made into law in Hungary in 2011 allowing the support of sport organisations and resulting in a number of infrastructural developments in Hungary. A wide range of development opportunities remain open in sports. This evaluation aims to introduce what significant sport-investment projects have been implemented in the Northern Great Plain region in recent decades and what effects these investments have had. Surveys have been used to reveal whether these facilities originating from years of sport developments are sustainable and to what extent these are exploited for organising sport events. Based on responses provided by a number of sport facilities – including ones built in the past and also ones opened recently – it can be concluded that sport in itself cannot solve the issue of operation and possible economic growth. Considering these aspects, it is important to incorporate, not only in operation but also during planning, the idea that current facilities must „serve” not solely sport events as these in themselves will not make them profitable but they must remain open for all sorts of social events as well.
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Co-innovation: what are the success factors?
29-36Views:104The problem we address in this paper is that in projects focusing on public-private cooperation to stimulate innovation in the Netherlands, initiatives often lack continuation after the study-phase. We extracted possible influencing variables from business and (transaction) cost economic theorizing, stakeholder and capability theory. Moreover, we used measures for classifying projects with respect to financial interdependencies between participants. We supposed that project characteristics influence managerial behavior to continue or stop. We studied 28 projects (20 supply chain projects and 8 biological product development projects). Our aim was to explore the barriers and success factors for these co-innovation projects: innovation as a cooperative effort between public sector/research institute and private organization(s). We derived data from project descriptions and performed semi-structured interviews with project informants. Critical to success appears to be ex ante commitment of all parties. Goal congruence, both at a personal and a company level, and proportionality of sharing in project results are of decisive importance to establish such commitment. Estimations about financial project results should be made in an early stage; they should be used as a basis for negotiations on the (re)distribution of costs and benefits, especially if the value added is disproportionally distributed over the participants. Ideally, project teams of co-innovation projects should bring in complementary capabilities: technical, marketing, financial and organizational. Project governance should therefore be organized in such a way that the knowledge gaps are filled in before kick-off.
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Growth and venture capital investment potential for university spin-offs in Hungary
31-38Views:152Venture backed spin-offs represent a low proportion of companies, even of innovative companies. The research question was, whether these companies have an important role in innovation and economic growth. I present the most important indicators of innovation in connection with entrepreneurship, the measures of start-ups, mainly the high-tech ones. I describe the position of venture capital industry nowadays, detailing the classical venture capital investments, targeting high-growth potential small firms, even university spin-offs. The study presents the results of a survey made as a counterpart of an academic research team, examining spin-offs, entrepreneurs and technology transfer in the most important Hungarian universities. I found that the most important obstacles of venture capital investments in high-tech spin-offs are the information gap between demand and supply side, the lack of entrepreneurs’ willingness to give up freedom in decision making, despite of low managerial skills. The low quality of financial environment is also an obstacle of the segment.
JEL Codes: G24, M13
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Changing patterns in hotel room demand – case study of the Aquaticum Debrecen Thermal and Wellness Hotel
51-55Views:107Aquaticum Debrecen Thermal and Wellness Hotel is a very successful lodging property not only in Debrecen but also in the Northern Great Plain Region and in the Eastern part of Hungary and in point of fact in Hungary. In the past yearsAquaticum Thermal and Wellness Hotel has been the leader in the region by revenue per available rooms (RevPAR). RevPAR indicates the overall performance of properties, accordingly it is the most commonly used statistical indicator in comparison to competitors in Hotel industry. In the past years, demand for Hotel rooms has changed. This changing has several signs. For instance the occupancy rate, the rate of domestic and foreign guests, the nationality of foreign guests, the time between booking and travelling, andm many other demand patterns have changed. During the last year, the changing has been accelerated by the global economic crisis. Guests are waiting with their bookings hoping for better rates and last minute offers. The forecast of demand became much harder than ever before. These forecasts are basic ingredients of the revenue management systems, which systems are in use or will be in use by Hungarian Hotels. These systems are necessary to keep RevPAR at a higher level and to help Hotels to achieve better performance.
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Global tendencies in pork meat - production, trade and consumption
105-111Views:1417World meat production is anticipated to stagnate in 2016, rising by a mere 0.3% to 320.7 million tonnes. Increases in output are expected in the United States, Brazil, the EU, India and the Russian Federation, while reduced production is foreseen for China, Australia and South Africa. Global meat trade is forecast to recover in 2016, growing by 2.8% to 30.6 million tonnes, which would represent a return to trend, after a fall in 2015. World production of pig meat in 2016 is forecast to decrease marginally, by 0.7% to 116.4 million tonnes, thus registering a second year of virtual stagnation. As in 2015, lower output in China, which accounts for almost half the world total, is the main reason for the slowdown. An unfavourable feed-pork price ratio in the country and new environmental regulations have caused farmers to reduce breeding sows, stalling growth. China’s production is projected to be 54 million tonnes, down 2.5% from the previous year. Elsewhere in Asia, the Philippines and Vietnam could boost output. Also, production in Japan and the Republic of Korea may expand, as the industry recovers from outbreaks of PED, which reduced piglet numbers in the previous two years. Recovery from the effects of PED has been faster in the United States, where a second year of growth is anticipated, when production could increase by 1.9% to a record 11.3 million tonnes. Output in Mexico also continues to recover, following a PED outbreak in 2014, and may rise in 2016 by 2.0% to 1.3 million tonnes. Pork meat trade could experience a second year of growth, increasing by 4.4% to 7.5 million tonnes – a record level. Lower international prices have stimulated trade. Most of the principal importing countries are anticipated to increase their purchases, including Mexico, China, the Russian Federation, the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Australia. In response to rising demand, exports are projected to grow, in particular those of the United States, Canada, the EU and Brazil (FAO, 2016). Summarizing, in this study we wish to examine how evolve the world pork meat production, trade and consumption, and to demonstrate the main consuming countries, highlighting the role of China, as it is the most populated country in the world with its 1.4 billion inhabitants.
JEL Code: Q13, Q12
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Factors affecting acceptance of smart retail solutions in Hungary: an empirical study using UTAUT2 model
Views:279In today's digitalisation process, retail is also undergoing a transformation, with the emergence of new smart solutions. Integrating intelligent solutions into a business model means new strategic challenges for retailing companies. The aim of the research is to examine the factors influencing the behavioural intention and use behaviour of smart retail solutions (SRS). The proposed model was based on the extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2). Data was collected by conducting a questionnaire of 302 Hungarian respondents. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and partial least squares (PLS-SEM) estimation were implemented. The results showed that behavioural intention is significantly and positively influenced by effort expectancy and it is significantly and negatively influenced by facilitating conditions. Most of the respondents are not yet regular users of SRS, and the market penetration of front-end intelligent solutions in retail is considered as rather low.
JEL code: M10, M31, O14
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Changing patterns in hotel room demand – case study of the Aquaticum Debrecen Thermal and Wellness Hotel
43-47Views:161Aquaticum Debrecen Thermal and Wellness Hotel is a very successful lodging property not only in Debrecen but also in the Northern Great Plain Region and in the Eastern part of Hungary and in point of fact in Hungary. In the past years Aquaticum Thermal and Wellness Hotel has been the leader in the region by revenue per available rooms (RevPAR). RevPAR indicates the overall performance of properties, accordingly it is the most commonly used statistical indicator in comparison to competitors in Hotel industry. In the past years, demand for Hotel rooms has changed. This changing has several signs. For instance the occupancy rate, the rate of domestic and foreign guests, the nationality of foreign guests, the time between booking and travelling, and many other demand patterns have changed. During the last year, the changing has been accelerated by the global economic crisis. Guests are waiting with their bookings hoping for better rates and last minute offers. The forecast of demand became much harder than ever before. These forecasts are basic ingredients of the revenue management systems, which systems are in use or will be in use by Hungarian Hotels. These systems are necessary to keep RevPAR at a higher level and to help Hotels to achieve better performance.
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The motivations for the diversification of the Nigerian economy focusing on sustainable agriculture
7-13Views:205Agriculture is one of the major branches of the economy in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. It employs around 70% of the population and its contribution to the national GDP ranges around 45% (2012). In spite of the fact that most of the area is arable the majority of food, the Nigerian population consumes, comes from imports. The paper attempts to provide in insight to the reasons, why Nigeria could still not achievew self sufficiency from major food crops and livestock. Beyond the rapid growth of the population, one of the major reasons is the rich oil and natural gas reserves, the exploitation and export of which has been providing with the country with “easy cash” for the recent few decades. Another reason is that the agricultural holdings are small and scattered, and farming is carried out with simple tools and techniques. Modern and large-scale farms are not common. The political leadership and economic decision makers of the country already recognized the necessity of the development of the food and agricultural sector, which – contrary to the oil industry – would exercise a deep and positive impact on the rural society as well. Nigerian agriculture is being transformed towards commercialization at small, medium and large-scale enterprise levels.
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How to improve the performance of agriculture in Mongolia by ICT
59-64Views:297Agriculture is one of the most important sectors for the Mongolian economy. Also, self-sufficient food is a significant target that has a vital role in the food safety of people in Mongolia. But due to climate change, not proper management, and lack of technology, the Mongolian agricultural sector is facing several issues. So this article aims to find some potential solutions to improve this situation, especially for the crop production sector in Mongolia. To define the current situation of Mongolian agriculture, we used statistical data and reports and recent scientific articles as well as online sources. The current situation of Mongolian agriculture is defined using SWOT analysis reported by the Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Light Industry of Mongolia. Based on this research, we discuss the possibility of using a drone to improve the performance of agriculture in Mongolia. As a result, a drone is effective in enhancing the performance of agriculture performed by householders. Also, two effective models that are based on ICTs to address soil erosion and harvest losses issues in Mongolia are defined in this article.
JEL Classification: Q16
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Analysis of the producer price of Hungarian raw milk in international comparison
27-32Views:158Although the dairy market crisis eased in 2011, Hungarian dairy farmers still find it difficult to produce milk profitably. As a result of the crisis, many dairy farmers abandoned milk production or reduced the size of their dairy herds in 2009 and 2010. Today, many of farmers are also considering ceasing production, in spite of the fact that the global dairy industry is facing an upturn. A dairy farm can operate profitablyy in three ways: 1) if it can reach a relatively high level of producer price 2) if it can increase milk production per cow 3) if it can achieve a relatively low cost of production. In the present study, I primarily analyse the development of the Hungarian producer price of raw milk in international comparison. Next, I list those factors which directly or indirectly influence the producer price of raw milk. Finally, I examine the relationship among disposable income, milk consumption and milk price. Since the start of 2009, the dairy market has been confronted with a period of extraordinary law prices. After bottoming out, prices had begun to slowly stabilise during the second half of 2009. By the end of that summer, international prices had started to strengthen and the last quarter of 2009 was characterized by a steady rise in prices. The strong recovery in prices experienced after 2009 was triggered by increased demand, mainly from oil exporting countries, but also from China.
The price increase, however, reflected a significant increase in input costs in Hungary; the high level of feed prices and the unfavourable change in the macroeconomic environment must be stressed. The rising excise duty on diesel fuel and the VAT increase had a direct impact on Hungarian dairy farmers. These negative factors have increased the costs of the sector, narrowing the ability of those active in it to operate efficiently. -
Renewable energy resources in Hungary – solid biomass utilization in terms of necessity and opportunity
75-78Views:137In the 21st century a country’s success significantly depends on how it can solve the problems (supply safety, growing prices, climate change, etc.) induced by the application structure of the fossil energy sources with the means of energy saving, energy efficiency and the utilization of renewable energy resources. The utilization of renewable energy sources has positive effects on five key areas: environment protection, energy policies, fulfilment of EU expectations, agriculture and rural development and on the whole of the national economy. The bioenergy – beside fulfilling the national economic aims – it is putting up the value of the role of agriculture and rural development. The role of agriculture is multi-functional in the process. The agricultural sector has an important task in the area of bioenergy to ensure the proper quality and quantity of raw materials for the increase of bioenergy utilization. This also means new sales perspectives and opportunities for the producers. Above all this, the agricultural policy aims for the agriculture and the rural development segment to be the unambiguous winner of the new bioenergy sector and for most of the available profit to stay with the agricultural sector, with the rural players. For this reason encouraging the raw material production it wishes to encourage the producer their primary process and their local utilization. One of the fundamental objectives of the measures is that agriculture should go beyond the raw material production and take steps towards processing and utilization. The multifunctional role in the product chain might mean extra income and more added value for the producers and the active players in the process. The other objective is to promote the local utilization, the scatter of the environmentally friendly energy sources in rural areas, to change the energy is “lying on the ground unutilized” principle while local processing and promoting the utilization, to achieve a lower energy dependency and to optimize and disseminate cost efficient solutions. To realize all this means a great task and a huge challenge for the agricultural government as well as the rural societies and micro regions but might lead to a successful rural development. The range of the tools and measures to fulfil the aims might be very broad, from the regulating instruments to the various subsidies, coordination and dissemination tools. Part of the subsidy schemes are direct production-type of subsidies (the so called direct payments, for example the area based subsidies) and the other main forms are the investment-type subsidies which are for technology development, promotion of competitive production and local processing and for establishing a green energy industry. In the period of 2007-2013 the key elements of the development schemes were drafted in the frame of the New Hungary Rural Development Programme (ÚMVP) and the Environmental Energy Operational Program (KEOP). The available raw materials and the conditions are taken into consideration while designing the development schemes because a successful realization of a product chain means the assurance of the inputs and outputs. The starting point of determining the development direction is the principle of an operation which is sustainable and economical on the long run. In addition such developments are considered reasonable which are viable on medium and long term and bring numerous rural development, environmental and societal returns.
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Consumers’ Awareness, Perception and Interest in Labelling of Processed Foods in Ghana: A Case of ‘Sobolo’
Views:371Food labels contain much information that helps consumers to make decisions based on the details which are of much importance to them. The study assessed awareness, perception and factors that influence consumers’ interest in labelling of sobolo in the Kumasi Metropolis of Ashanti region, Ghana. Systematic random sampling was used to select 300 respondents from five randomly selected sub-metros and data were collected using a semi structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics such as frequencies, tables and percentages were used to summarize the socio-economic characteristics of respondents. Perception index was used to assess the perception statements on the product labelling and the Logistic Regression Model was used to analyze the factors that significantly influence consumers’ interest in labelling of sobolo. Results of the study showed that majority (97.3%) of respondents were not aware of labelled sobolo but 67% was interested, though with low awareness. The estimated perception index (2.8) showed that consumers had positive perception about labelling of sobolo. Among the socio-economic characteristics; age, education, household income and household size and respondents’ perception on health and safety aspects of sobolo were found to significantly influence interest in labelling of sobolo. In conclusion, the study found that, consumers would prefer different information on labels and thus their interests are significantly influenced by different factors. It is recommended that efforts should be made to promote the awareness, education and interest in labelling of food products to enhance production, consumption and sustainability of the food industry.
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Responsible Behavior and Environmental Protection – in Case of Football Clubs
64-74Views:539There has been a hotspot in sports industry these days that is becoming more and more wide-spread in sports organizations and among managers, namely CSR, that is corporate social responsibility. In the life of geographical regions, towns or villages, professional football clubs play a crucial role. Consequently, clubs tend to take responsibility for these communities in return for their support: whether it is the local population or the authorities, other businesses or the environment, they are ready to stand up for good causes. Nowadays sports centres with their regular events have a significant effect on the environment either regionally or globally. That is the reason why it has become vital in the management of sports facilities to respect environmental principles when designing and using sports facilities and to avoid producing pollution that could harm and deteriorate the environment. The aim of our study was on the one hand, to present the definitional and theoretical evolution of CSR, than the CSR concept in sport, special regard to environmental protection. On the other hand, to analyze what kind of CSR related issues do football clubs (Real Madrid C. F. – RM, Borussia Dortmund – BVB) and how they are addressing issues of environmental sustainability in the context of CSR. According to RM and BVB, we can say that they really try to do efforts to responsible behavior and environmental protection. They have special respect for the society and took big step to use different environmental management tools. It was easy to find information, reports and case studies about these activities.
JEL Classification: M14
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