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Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA: International tourist arrivals to India and Thailand
43-61Views:117Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment and this method was developed by the Census Bureau in the United States. It has been continually improved since the 1960s, and it is used by many statistics agencies and central banks. The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to India for 2007-2010 and also these data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010. From these period the results confirm that the best forecasting method based on the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1), X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for India and the best forecasting method based on this method is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for Thailand. Furthermore this method predict that international tourism arrivals to India for 2007–2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to India will be 5,079,651 million, 5,652,180 million, 6,224,480 million and 6,796,890 million, respectively. Also this method predict that international tourism arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to Thailand will be 12,211,033 million, 12,699,532 million, 13,187,591 million, 13,674,669 million and 14,161,998 million, respectively. If these results can be generalized for future year, then it suggests that both the India government sector and the Thailand government sector also the private tourism industry sector of these country should prepare to receive increasing numbers of international tourist arrivals both to India and Thailand in this period.
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Some aspects of accounting and management accounting during economic downturns
33-35Views:149Economic slowdown and downturn creates new situation for every organisation, no one can avoid facing to new situation created by the global financial-, and economic crisis.All of the organisational function should reconsider its own role within the company due to the new circumstances, Accounting and Mangement Accounting can not be exception, but they have more complex and emphasized role in these difficult times. In the following paper I can not avoid to mention some general statement about importance of accounting and accounting principles, while there are a number of criticalaccounting and financial reporting issues that accountants and auditors should consider.In the framework of the paper I can not face with all relevant issues of the topic, but after some general statement I would like to highlight some special area regarding to management accounting, which can be more important during these challenging time for decision makers and accountants.Regarding to balance sheet analysis its important to mention current debate about fair value comparing with historical cost from accounting point of view, on the other hand from the view of management reporting system I would like to highlight the importance of working-capital indicators. More practical topic is the crucial role of budgeting and forecasting during economic downturns, and at the end I would like to show why it is more important monitoring price variance and indirect cost allocation in these uncertain business circumstances.
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Commodity Indices Risk and Return Analysis Against Libor Benchmark
55-66Views:128This study analyze the risk and return characteristics of commodity index investments against the LIBOR benchmark. Commodity-based asset allocation strategies can be optimized by benchmarking the risk and return characteristics of commodity indices with LIBOR index rate. In this study, we have considered agriculture, energy, and precious metals commodity indices and LIBOR index to determine the risk and return characteristics using estimation techniques in terms of expected return, standard deviation, and geometric mean. We analyzed the publicly available daily market data from 10/9/2001 to 12/30/2016 for benchmarking commodity indices against LIBOR. S&P GSCI Agriculture Index (SGK), S&P GSCI Energy Index (SGJ), and S&P GSCI Precious Metals Index (SGP) are taken to represent each category of widely traded commodities in the regression analysis. Our study uses time series data based on daily prices. Alternative forecasting methodologies for time series analysis are used to cross-check the results. The forecasting techniques used are Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA. This methodology predicts forecasts using smoothening parameters. The empirical research has shown that the risk of each of the commodity index that represents agriculture, energy, and precious metals sector is smaller compared to its return, whereas LIBOR based interest rate benchmark shows higher risk compared to its return in recession, non-recession and overall periods.
JEL Classification: C43, G13, G15
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Relationships between competitiveness in the Northern Great Plain and the organisational culture of local authorities
13-20Views:134One of the five basic factors in the Lengyel-type pyramid model – institutions and social capital – is essential in the economic growth of the region. Economic success however, does not only depend on participants in the economy, but on social factors such as the roles played by local authorities, including their functions, operation and organisational culture, all of which are crucial factors. Based on the results obtained regarding organisational culture it can be stated that performance orientation, dominant motivation based on calculated risk, forward planning and regular feedback are expected values at local authorities in all three counties. All local authorities emphasise the importance of the need for forecasting. Respondents find it important that organisations encourage and reward individual action and contributions as expected values. The degree of human orientation expected by local authorities reflects the fact that respect for colleagues and attention to their well-being should be at the highest level. Reinforcing these organisational culture values (dimensions) is the basis for the efficient and successful operation of organisations (local authorities). The study examines the organisational culture of local authorities in the Northern Great Plain, looking for any relationships it might have with the competitiveness of the region. This study is an element of the wider research into organisational culture. We used the GLOBE (Global Leadership and Organisational Behaviour Effectiveness) survey, which had been successfully applied in the research programme In Competition with the World at the Corvinus University of Budapest. Koopman, Den Hartog, Konrad et al. (1999) examined the culture variables of 21 European countries in organisations. Based on Hungarian and international literature it can be stated that a similar survey of local authorities has not yet been conducted.
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An investigation on the international tourists’ expenditures in Thailand: a modelling approach
15-18Views:116As a result of the increase in both the international tourists’ expenditures and tourist arrivals to Thailand, there is a growing interest in determining the trend of international tourists’ expenditures based on time-series modelling. In our article secondary data were used to produce forecasts of the international tourists’ expenditures in Thailand between 2009 and 2010. The forecasting method is based on the ARFIMAX (0, 0.197, 0, 0.033) model. Furthermore, this method predicted that international tourists’ expenditures in Thailand between 2009 and 2010 will have to contract and slow down. This paper seeks to determine whether the international tourists’ expenditures are affected by other circumstances. The results of this study revealed that the international tourist arrivals to Thailand will also have to slow down. However, from the results, there is solid evidence to support such a claim.
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Climate change effects on ski tourism
19-26Views:349Nowadays, climate change poses a common recurring problem in our everyday life. The weather forecasts tend to be inaccurate, the swiftly changing weather often makes fun of the people. The same unpredictability applies for forecasting the amount of precipitation or snowing. The major problem in ski tourism consists in the gradual shift of seasons, namely there is no snow in December yet, while at Easter-time we can count on such an enormous amount of snow. I’d like to present this climate condition and offer a sort of way out of this problem. In my empirical study, I have carried out document-analysis along the data collection phase, and I made half-structured deep-interviews, as well.
My research questions were the following: How is the winter season affected by climate change or by the lack of snow? Due to the unreliable climatic conditions what is the estimated ratio of drop in tourism in the season? How much shorter is a skiing-season and how does it affect the operation of the local ski-school? What are the features of pre, and post peak-season tourists’ emergence? How and for how long can a smaller ski-resort be maintained? What is the biggest challenge, problem at the ski-resorts along the state border?
First of all, I’d like to present and tackle the various solutions emerged facing the challenges of climate change effects related to skiing, on the other hand, I have made some personal interviews with Hungarian ski instructors working abroad and also with managers of Austrian ski schools trying to find out the various answers and reactions they have hammered out coping with the new challenges and difficulties in ski tourism.
Hungary can not be considered a skiing nation, although more and more people tend to take up skiing and get involved in this special field of sport tourism. The number of ski slopes being built and developed is increasing, yet the Hungarians ski-lovers tend to visit rather the foreign sport centers for the time being. The reasons mostly involve the various length and versatile difficulty level of the ski slopes. We should also take into account the challenging conditions imposed by climate change on the smaller winter sport centers and the way they can cope with it and also compete with other sport centers with similar features.
Climate change affects considerably the operation of skiing season, and the service providers must adapt to the new conditions. Many resort venues struggle for survival, though most of the local self-governments are clearly aware of the importance of ski-tourism, particularly in Austria.
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