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The effects of climate change on cereals yield of production and food security in Gambia
83-92Views:950Increasingly, empirical evidences are substantiating the effects of climate change on agricultural production is a reality. In the early part of the 20th century many were skeptical about the so-called climate change that is due to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) defines climate change as follows: “climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean or variability of its properties and that persists for extended periods, typically decades or longer” This study analyses the impact of climate change on cereals production (millet and maize) in the Gambia using a time series data for a period of 46 years (1960 – 2013) at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate (temperatures and rainfall,) and non-climate variables fertilizer, area planted respectively and yield. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) How climate change affects the expected cereals (Millet and Maize) output or yield in the Gambia. (2) How the level of output risk within cereals (Millet and Maize) farming is affected? In order to achieve these set objectives, the paper will adopt Just and Pope modified Ricardian production functions for climate change impact assessments (e.g., Chen et al. 2004), the paper will also control for the impacts of regular input factors in the production process. The study used a data set for the Gambia comprising variables relevant for cereals production and climate information from 1960 through 2013. There is strong evidence that climate will affects Maize and Millet; according to the analysis 77% and 44% of the variability in the yield of Maize and Millet respectively is explained by the climate and non-climate variables included in the model. Given the effects of climate variables on cereals production, and increasing climate change vulnerabilities on other food production section, the result of this paper will add voice to the growing call for policy makers to step up funding in research and development in climate change adaptation and mitigation.
JEL classification: Q54
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Analysis of household crop commercialization in Nigeria
Views:277Nigeria is experiencing a gradual shift from subsistence to commercialized agriculture, thereby increasing involvement and activities at different nodes of agribusiness. Participation of farmers in markets is an important determinant of well-being and development, and one of the pathways towards economic growth. This study analysed household crop commercialization in Nigeria. The secondary data used were the General Household Survey (GHS, 2018) Wave 4. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, household crop commercialization index (HCCI) and ordered probit regression model.
Mean age of Nigerian farmers was 50.04 years (±15.22), majority (85.68%) were male, married (82.51%), and 72.14% had formal education. Farming is viable in all the geopolitical zones and majority (87.64%) of the farmers were from the rural sector, holding a mean total plot size of 12.61(±15.63) hectares, and planted 3 crops on the average. The most produced crop categories are cereals (46.75%), tubers (20.70%) and legumes (19.00%); legumes and cereals are highest in the North, and tubers in the South. Subsistence households were 32.81% (HCCI=0), only 1.71% of the households were fully commercial (HCCI=100), while semi-subsistence households (0≤HCCI≤100) constitute 65.48%. Years of education (p<0.05) and crop production in North East and North West zones (p<0.01) constrain commercialization, while at p<0.01, crop production in the rural sector and the South zones, and increased land holding are the drivers of household crop commercialization in Nigeria.
Nigerian farming households are mainly semi-subsistence and are diversified in crop production. Nigeria relies more on market participation of the semi-subsistence households, through their marketable surplus, to feed her teeming population and for exports. Further attention on rural infrastructure development in all geopolitical zones and awareness creation on producing market oriented products will increase agribusiness activities. This will generate green decent jobs that will take unemployed youths off the streets of urban centres. This is in tune with the economy diversification bid and the new Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan of the Federal Government of Nigeria.
JEL CODE – Q13
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Rural resilience and the role of social capital among farmers in Kirundo province, Northern Burundi
121-125Views:138In Burundi, more than 90% of the active population is engaged in family agriculture, which plays a vital role in food production and constitutes more than 50% of the GDP. Before the civil war of 1993, Kirundo was deemed the “breadbasket of the country”, as the region fed many parts of Burundi through growing particular foods such as legumes and cereals. Family farming was market-oriented. Kirundo alone includes 8 lakes which offer opportunities for field irrigation. Today, this region is the first province in Burundi which shows a high rate of malnutrition, as poverty has increased and a sharp 53.9 % decline in agricultural production has been witnessed between 1996 and 2009. The aim of this article is to analyse the role of social capital through the local association network in improving family agriculture and the resilience to climate change and conflict crisis. In this study, 73 farmers were surveyed in Kirundo province through means of a questionnaire, and the study was completed by collecting secondary data. Analysis of the data reveals that, despite recurrent droughts in that region which caused deaths due to famines and displacement of people to neighbouring countries such as Rwanda and Tanzania, 44% of the farmers who were surveyed were shown to have resilience to climate change. The analysis of data shows that these farmers were members of well organised local associations, and had learned about specific topics such as financial management, processing and storage of agricultural products and livestock. The social capital network positively influences their income and their resilience to climate change and conflict crisis.
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Main characteristics of trade of the Hungarian cereals and oil crops between 2000 and 2010 and the effects of changes in intervention rules to the Hungarian cop sector from 2004 to 2010
47-54Views:137In this paper the trade of the Hungarian cereal and oil crops from 2000 and 2010 are introduced. The general attributes of the Hungarian crop sector are analyzed and a specific picture from aspect of the trade in Hungarian cereal and oilseed sector, with a focus on the quantity of the export and import of wheat, maize, rapeseed, sunflower and other crops and their main target countries. This article also aims to show the impacts of the changes in the EU’s intervention rules and provide analysis.
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Food security assessment and consumption pattern in rural households in Ogun State, Nigeria
15-20Views:139The problem of nutrition security is getting worse in Africa, due to increasing population growth and poor progress in efforts directed at reducing food insecurity in many countries in the continent. The paper undertook an assessment of the food security situation and food consumption pattern in rural households in Ogun state, Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 260 rural households from whom data were collected through structured questionnaire. The tools of analysis were descriptive statistics and food security index. The former described the consumption pattern, and households’ sources of food availability, while the latter was used to analyse the food security situation. The result of the rural households’ consumption pattern reveals that the rural households derived more of their energy from carbohydrates at the expense of other classes of food items. The result also shows that majority (75.5%) obtained their food through their own production and supplemented same with food purchased from the market to meet up with their family needs. Based on the recommended daily calorie intake (R) of 2,470 kcal, 59.6% of the rural households were food insecure while 40.4% were food secure. The calculated head count ratio (H) for the food insecure households was 0.6, confirming that almost 60% of households in the study area were food insecure. For secure households, the head count ratio (H) was 0.4, further confirming that only about 40% of households in the study area were food secure. The shortfall index and surplus index were 0.2787 and 0.3498 respectively, meaning that the energy requirement was less by about 27 percent and in excess of 34 percent for the food insecure and food secure households. The paper recommends that while enhancing production of arable crops - roots, tubers and cereals, a sensible balance of tilting towards meeting the requirements in the consumption of animal protein/legume, fats/oils, fruits and vegetables must be maintained to ensure food security. This policy thrust could be enhanced through mass education.
JEL code: R20
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