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Comparing parametric and semiparametric error correction models for estimation of long run equilibrium between exports and imports
19-23Views:149This paper introduces the semiparametric error correction model for estimation of export-import relationship as an alternative to the least squares approach. The intent is to demonstrate how semiparametric error correction model can be used to estimate the relationship between Ghana’s export and import within the context of a generalized additive modelling (GAM) framework. The semiparametric results are compared to common parametric specification using the ordinary least squares regression. The results from the semiparametric and parametric error correction models (ECM) indicate that the error correction term and import variable are significant determinants of Ghana’s exports. On the basis of Akaike Information Criteria and Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) scores, it is found that the semiparametric error correction model provides a better fit than the widely used parametric error correction model for modeling Ghana’s export-import relationship. The results of the analysis of variance provide further evidence of nonlinearity in Ghana’s export and import relationship. In effect, this paper demonstrates the usefulness of semiparametric error correction model in the estimation of export – import relationship.
JEL code: C14, C18, C22, F10, F14
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Hungarian endeavours for the enhancement of economic relations in Southeast Asia focusing on a new partnership with Vietnam
5-12Views:223Beyond a brief review of the economic integration process among the states of the ASEAN region, the authors of the present study aimed to examine and analyze the main economic, social and political characteristics of the Hungaro-ASEAN relations. The importance of the topic of this research is underlined by the fact that the Hungarian government considers big importance to the improvement of the foreign economic relations with Asian economies. This intention was expressed by a new foreign economic strategy „Eastern opening” announced by the government in 2012, even though the foreign trade statistical figures did not justify its success by now.The authors believe that increasing opening towards Asia serves Hungarian economic interests. Therefore, it is a right and desirable direction to proceed, they consider that in the background of the modest results there might be the insufficient knowledge of the market mechanisms, the actors of the local supply chains and the potential partners. They believe that in order to make the Hungarian foreign economic endeavours in this direction more successful a more thorough examination of the local characteristics – including the actual demand arising at the targeted markets - is necessary. This opinion is prevalent to not only the Asian „Giants”, like China, India and Japan, but also to smaller states, like the ASEAN members, which – together - in terms of population and economic performance – reach the dimensions of an economic great power as well.
Furthermore, the integration of the ten Southeast Asian countries develops rapidly, which is coupled by their increasing weight in the world trade. The dynamic economic and social development in the ASEAN region – and in parallel with this the growing demands and purchasing power - may encourage the Hungarian ventures in theory. However, there are still very few Hungarian entrepreneurs, who are ready to enter the market in the region and able in long run to operate there successfully. It is a well-known fact that the since the regime has changed in Hungary, foreign trade became strongly concentrated towards the EU members.
The ASEAN countries – because of the geographic distance and by other reasons - definitely cannot mean an alternative of the EU market, however in a certain extent they can relieve this one-sided concentration and may provide additional opportunities for the Hungarian export of goods, and rather to the export of Hungarian services and know-how. The ratio of the ASEAN region within the entire Hungarian foreign trade turnover is small nowadays, furthermore – according to the statistical figures – this region is rather an import resource for Hungary than being an export market. This fact – just itself – is should not be considered as problem. When the amount of the import exceeds the amount of exports, that means that it is more worthwhile to do business with suppliers from there countries than with others. By and large all this is prevalent to the field of the agricultural trade as well: Hungary imports a range of commodities which cannot be produced by domestic farmers or in Europe (spices, tropical fruits, etc.). It is obvious that the ASEAN region cannot be the major market for the Hungarian agricultural export, not even in long run. However, there are still a lot of opportunities to enlarge the turnover of goods and services and enhance the co-operation in this geographic region. In the last chapter, the authors outlined an example in case of Vietnam – co-operation of joint public warehousing of agricultural commodities – which may be a good example for the promising potential opportunities. In contrast with the majority of the ASEAN countries, the Hungaro-Vietnamese political and economic relations had started much earlier than the regime was changed in Hungary. However, the potential advantages arose from this fact – the network of connections and the sympathy of Vietnamese professionals graduated in Hungary, the reputation and popularity of Hungarian agricultural products and technologies, the achievements of R&D in the field of agriculture – could not be utilized from Hungarian side. Vietnam, however still preserved its socialist political establishment, but in terms of its economic development strategy and economic policy has gradually been standing on the basis of market orientation. Vietnam, with its population of ninety million shows a rapid and successful development and it means good opportunities even for Hungarian entrepreneurs. It would be a mistake to leave these potentials unused.JEL Classification: F14, Q17, R11, N75
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Poultry sector analysis in Albania
Views:273Meat production, in specific poultry meat is a very important product for protein and nutrition values for many consumers. With the urbanization of the population people’s diet is shifting towards meat overall, including processed poultry. This has increased the challenges of quality and control over the meat products. (RAIHAN AND MAHMUD, 2018) In general, poultry remains a problematic sector in Albania, with the most common issue being the quality and not the European Union standards and regulations. This paper analysis the egg and poultry products livestock and productions, importing and exporting trends on poultry products, and the potential of development of this sector in the single market of European Union by improving the sector. This study gives an overview in poultry subsector related to livestock and production, international trades, and their market trends. It highlights the supply chain in poultry that can be helpful for poultry businesses and government. It also provides valuable information regarding the impact of quality issues in international market, also the structure of the market for poultry is conducted. Also, the imports and exports on poultry subsector trends and comparison was conducted. The study also consisted of calculations of index number CPI, which indicates the changes in consumer purchasing power.
JEL code: D1
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Free Trade Agreement: Impacts on the Costa Rican Dairy Market
83-90Views:164According to the Free Trade Agreement with Central America, Dominican Republic and United States signed in 2008, milk import tariff reliefs will stagger down from 59,4% to 0% by 2025. This study determined milk demand and supply curves in the Costa Rican domestic market. Several variables and two different models were conducted to estimate milk demand and supply: Ordinary Least Squares and Two Stages Least Square simultaneous equations. In both cases, demand was estimated by income and milk prices as independent variables; while supply was estimated by input and milk prices. Nonetheless, the best fit was obtained by TSLS model because it accounts for endogeneity among price and quantity. Based on this model, if domestic prices are supposed to decrease due to increasing quantities of imported lower-priced milk, then national demand would increase (9% average) and national production is expected to decrease (26% average). The gap between national milk demand and supply is expected to be filled by milk imported from United States; assuming 0% tariff, no transaction costs and constant share of exports within national production.
JEL Classification: F1, Q17
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