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• Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production

  79-85

  Lajos Nagy

  Views:

  301

  This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management in the decision support of crop production. Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays an important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well. Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop structure, by which income-sensitivity can be taken into account, but it does not reflect the behavior to risk. This deficiency can be avoided by using risk programming models. By the complementary usage of linear programming and risk programming models the optimizing and adaptive planning can be executed. It often causes a problem for the producers to decide when and how much to sell to realize a maximum turnover. The decision is mostly influenced by the selling prices, but also important factors are the financial status of the business, the amount of credit and its conditions, the stock piling opportunities and costs, and the short-term investment opportunities as well. For the resolution of the problem I set up a dynamic, simultaneous financial model by which the system-conceptual analysis of the above mentioned factors and a sound decision-making can be executed.

• Knowledge transfer: a case study approach

  15-19

  Ivana Tichá

  Jaroslav Havlícek

  Views:

  318

  The article builds on the growing importance of knowledge as a strategic resource for maintaining the competitive advantage of a business. We illustrate one of the initiatives contributing to effective knowledge transfer by describing a case study approach which suggests how universities might assist in disseminating knowledge and enhancing industry competitiveness.The case study approach is apparently an effective way to share best practices, and with the use of appropriate ICT tools, it provides for an enormous diffusion of codified (explicit) knowledge in the industry.The example in the focus of this article describes aVirtual Portal designed as a single-point access to information and tools (case studies, decision models and software), with the emphasis on case studies (their selection, coding and use).

• MONTE CARLO SIMULATION FOR STRESS TESTING ENDOGENOUS PROFITABILITY FACTORS DURING POLYCRISIS: A CASE STUDY FROM THE POULTRY SUBSECTOR

  Máté Varga

  Patrícia Becsky-Nagy

  Views:

  129

  Can historical company data help estimate future performance during economic uncertainty? This study investigates whether past business cycles can be used to estimate profitability in the context of a polycrisis – a period marked by overlapping disruptions such as avian influenza, COVID-19 trade restrictions, extreme weather events, and rising feed and energy prices. These shocks have severely impacted agro-related industries, such as poultry processing. Focusing on three Central European poultry processing companies, we use Monte Carlo simulations for stress testing their profitability for the 2023 period, aiming to support financial planning by analysing firm-specific, endogenous, management-controllable factors. Return on Sales (ROS) and Return on Equity (ROE) are used to evaluate profitability, incorporating variables such as euro exchange rates in the case of export-driven firms. Our results indicate that Company “A,” characterized by stable operations, had the lowest probability of negative ROE, while Companies “B” and “C” demonstrated greater volatility. We found that the model provides a good estimate of the factors affecting the companies’ profitability that are directly or indirectly reflected in their accounting data. Indicating that the test could be a valuable tool for supporting managerial decision-making in financial planning, though further refinements are needed to enhance accuracy.

• DETERMINING TYPES OF CONSCIOUS CONSUMERS WHO PREFER NUTRITION LABELING

  Ildikó Tóth

  Zoltán Szakály

  Views:

  312

  One of the most important pillars of a healthy lifestyle is healthy nutritional value, in which FOP nutrition labels can support consumers in making the right decision. A healthy diet is essential for overall well-being and the prevention of many chronic diseases. Special attention must be paid to the use of FOP nutrition values in order to prevention and healthy decision-making. It is important that people can interpret the nutritional value of food as simply as possible, which FOP nutrition labels can help them with. The packaging has to provide realistic and accurate information about the product. This study describes four types of FOP nutrition labels used in the European Union: Nordic Keyhole, Nutri-Score, Traffic Lights, Nutrinform Battery. During the conducted focus group interviews, the participants got acquainted with these nutrition labels and created the personality types that they can imagine knowing and using the given FOP nutrition label.