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Investment analysis of a piglet producer farm – a Hungarian case study
141-152Views:282The pig population in Hungary was about 8 million in 1990, while this number dropped to only 2.8 million by 2018. The previously so successful integrated domestic pig farming has almost completely disappeared and most of the smaller farms still operating in the 1990s are no longer functioning. At present, a process of concentration can be observed, which was accompanied by the further specialization of pig farming. The main profile of most pig farms is fattening, but there is a smaller number of farms in Hungary today specialized for piglet production, the successful operation of which requires significantly more expertise and more complex technology.
The main aim of this study is to present the production and economic indicators of a pig farm specialized in piglet production in Hungary as a result of a greenfield investment in the current economic environment, on a case study basis. For this purpose, an economic simulation was prepared based on primary data collection, operating on a deterministic basis, modelling the production and economic processes of the farm. The performed calculation does not derive the economic indicators of the activity from accounting records, but assigns the prices of natural inputs used on the basis of technological data. Primary data and information collection (e.g. technological data, input and output prices, unit cost items, etc.) took place between 2018-2019.
At the purchase prices of pigs in the last two years, which have increased significantly due to the African Swine Fever (ASF), the majority of pig farms in Hungary have an outstanding profit-making capacity. The physical efficiency indicators of the analysed pig farm are almost identical to the average data of such farms in the Netherlands, which has one of the most developed pig industry. The income of the examined pig farm at farm level is about 734 thousand EUR, i.e. 232 EUR per sow. Moreover, this activity is profitable even without subsidies. As a result, the greenfield investment pays off in the 8th year by default (average scenario). The investment has a Net Present Value (NPVr=3%) of EUR 2,609 thousand for 10 years, an Internal Rate of Return of 8.5%, and a Profitability Index (PIr=3%) of 1.3. At the same time, risk factors such as sales prices, output and capacity utilization, and feed costs should be taken into consideration as in extreme cases the return on investment may be unfavourable (pessimistic scenario).
JEL code: D24, M11, Q12
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Global tendencies in pork meat - production, trade and consumption
105-111Views:1818World meat production is anticipated to stagnate in 2016, rising by a mere 0.3% to 320.7 million tonnes. Increases in output are expected in the United States, Brazil, the EU, India and the Russian Federation, while reduced production is foreseen for China, Australia and South Africa. Global meat trade is forecast to recover in 2016, growing by 2.8% to 30.6 million tonnes, which would represent a return to trend, after a fall in 2015. World production of pig meat in 2016 is forecast to decrease marginally, by 0.7% to 116.4 million tonnes, thus registering a second year of virtual stagnation. As in 2015, lower output in China, which accounts for almost half the world total, is the main reason for the slowdown. An unfavourable feed-pork price ratio in the country and new environmental regulations have caused farmers to reduce breeding sows, stalling growth. China’s production is projected to be 54 million tonnes, down 2.5% from the previous year. Elsewhere in Asia, the Philippines and Vietnam could boost output. Also, production in Japan and the Republic of Korea may expand, as the industry recovers from outbreaks of PED, which reduced piglet numbers in the previous two years. Recovery from the effects of PED has been faster in the United States, where a second year of growth is anticipated, when production could increase by 1.9% to a record 11.3 million tonnes. Output in Mexico also continues to recover, following a PED outbreak in 2014, and may rise in 2016 by 2.0% to 1.3 million tonnes. Pork meat trade could experience a second year of growth, increasing by 4.4% to 7.5 million tonnes – a record level. Lower international prices have stimulated trade. Most of the principal importing countries are anticipated to increase their purchases, including Mexico, China, the Russian Federation, the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Australia. In response to rising demand, exports are projected to grow, in particular those of the United States, Canada, the EU and Brazil (FAO, 2016). Summarizing, in this study we wish to examine how evolve the world pork meat production, trade and consumption, and to demonstrate the main consuming countries, highlighting the role of China, as it is the most populated country in the world with its 1.4 billion inhabitants.
JEL Code: Q13, Q12
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Competiveness of the Hungarian pig sector
103-107Views:113The number of Hungarian pig population was 3.2 million in February 2010, 150 thousand less than in the previous year. This included 226 thousand brood sows, 54 thousand less than in the previous year, and this number is expected to fall further next year. In the past two years the number of brood sows decreased to a larger extent in economic organizations than in private farms (KSH, 2010). Despite the rising costs of feedingstuffs, producer prices for slaughter pigs have decreased, therefore private farms with small herds of brood sows haves old their breeding animals for slaughter houses. However, economic organizations mostly tried to restructure their production and place emphasis on plant production, thus improving their situation. These market changes indicate that the sector continues to scale down, production shrinks, market losses are continuous within the sector and vulnerability threaten the players of the product cycle increasingly.
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Examination of pig farm technology by computer simulation
25-29Views:162Agricultural production is among the riskiest production activities. Similarly to other branches of agriculture in animal breeding the finished product is the result of complex procedures. The biological technological procedure, the creation of the product is affected by an outstanding number of environmental factors which also cause uncertainties. In the North Great Plain Region of Hungary, sows, gilts and slaughter pigs are produced on a corporate farm. The reliable operation data of this company provide a stable basis for and estimating future costs and revenue and their distributions. Monte Carlo methods are one of the generally accepted tools for modeling risks. The significant independent variables, their ranges and probability distributions, and the correlation between them were inputs to the model. The values of the variables were produced using a random number generator. The computer simulation was performed using @Ris (PalisadeCorporation) software. The study concentrates on the factors affecting the number of off spring (piglets). Model inputs were the mating, mortality and farrowing rates; the costs and the income values based on these rates have been analysed as the output data of the model.
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A comparison of the Hungarian mangalitza and dutch organic pork chains
73-76Views:167The aim of this paper is to present the Hungarian mangalitza pig and Dutch organic pig supply chains and, in interrogating the differences between the two sectors, to make suggestions for the efficient operation of the Hungarian mangalitza breeding sector. The information about the two was sourced by a depth interview and literature reviews. It is established that there are few similarities between the two segments. In both sectors, the pigs are kept outdoors in large paddocks, there are also National Associations: in Hungary, the Association of Mangalitza Breeders (NAMB), in The Netherlands, the Organic Pork Growers. They hold a general meeting every year, where they discuss issues such as volume, quality, price, marketing and the future challenges and opportunities. There is strong demand both for the mangalitza and also for Dutch organic pork products on foreign markets. The main difference between them is their information systems. In The Netherlands, information flows via FarmingNet, but in the mangalitza sector, no such system exists. Yet, such a system would represent a breaking point for the adequate flow of data and efficient production for the NAMB, because then, Hungarian farmers would be forced to supply data.
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