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• Estimation of Armington elasticities: case of vegetables in Mongolia

  Amar Uuld

  Robert Magda

  Views:

  445

  Mongolian people often consume meat more than vegetable in diet due to traditional nomadic culture. Nowadays, the Mongolian people’s diet has been changing who consume more vegetables with associated urbanization (half of the population live in urban areas, mostly in the capital city). Even though vegetable consumption has been increased recently, the vegetable market is still a high reliance on imports and threatening national food security. Since 2016, the Mongolian government has especially paid attention to increasing vegetable's domestic production and substitution to import vegetables (Ministry of food and Agriculture, 2017). Therefore, this paper provided to substitution elasticity (the Armington elasticity) between import vegetables and domestic vegetables in Mongolia. Additionally, we estimated the home bias value of vegetables. The so-called Armington elasticities are widely used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis, which determines a degree of substitution between import goods and domestically produced goods. Several of the authors studied Armington elasticities at the product level. We choose six vegetables (such as potato, garlic and onion, tomato, carrot and turnips, cabbage, and cucumber) related to lack of information. The empirical result shows that the Armington elasticities in the long-run higher than the short-run with exception of potato which means that products are similar in the long-run. However, our estimated Armington elasticities are quite lower than the previous studies result which means that Mongolian people indicated more prefer home growing vegetables than import vegetables. Moreover, we found that the home bias value is high in the short-run even long -run, this appears to be a higher relative weight on home vegetables.

  JEL code: F13, Q17, Q18

• The impact of boundary organizations on decision-making under uncertainty: A multi-agent simulation

  13-16

  Denis Boissin

  Views:

  277

  Modern environmental issues imply that decision-makers have the capacity to take into account possibly conflicting information from distinct domains, such as science and economics.As the development of technology increases the temporal and spatial scopes of risks, decision-makers can no longer consider economic and scientific information separately but should encourage experts to work together. Boundary organizations, institutions that cross the gap between two different domains, are able to act beyond the boundaries while remaining accountable to each side (Guston, 2001). By encouraging a flow of information across the boundaries, they permit an exchange to take place, while maintaining the authority of each domain (Cash et al., 2003; Clark et al., 2002). The goal is to simulate boundary organizations to assess their impact on the diffusion of experts’ opinions. The hypothesis tested is whether the existence of a boundary organization eases the decision-making process by reducing the number of opinions expressed. The methodology relies on a multi-agent system based on a model of continuous opinion dynamics (Deffuant et al., 2001) extended over two dimensions. The world is defined by two parameters: the uncertainty, that reflects the possible zone of discussion between experts, and the exchange, which represents the openness of discussions. Agents are described by credibility and conviction: the credibility represents how much other agents may be influenced by an agent, and the conviction represents the resistance of an agent to changing its position. Two kinds of agents are left free to interact, modifying their position in their domain (dimension) through one-to-one exchanges. Agents called borgs are introduced: open to trans-disciplinary discussion, they are able to exchange on both dimensions. The results show that the range of expressed opinions is significantly reduced, even at low levels of experts involved in the boundary organization.

• Role of innovations and knowledge – infrastructure and institutions

  7-10

  András Nábrádi

  Views:

  601

  There is a well known saying: Research converts money into knowledge, innovation converts knowledge into money. The knowledge-based economy has four pillars: innovation, education, the economic and institutional regime, and information infrastructure. Transformation towards a knowledge-based economy will necessarily shift the proportion and growth of national income derived from knowledge-based industries, the percentage of the workforce employed in knowledge-based jobs and the ratio of firms using technology to innovate. Progress towards a knowledge-based economy will be driven by four elements: human capital development, knowledge generation and exploitation (R&D), knowledge infrastructure. Increased investment in these four areas will certainly have an impact. National experience, however, suggests that an incremental approach will not work. Nations that have achieved accelerated growth in outputs and capabilities have acted decisively, targeting investments in areas of strategic opportunity. The organizational and infrastructural improvement of research requires supranational cooperation and the promotion of the free movement of knowledge. Therefore, the EU decision on the establishment of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT), which ensures that the GDP proportion for research and development (R&D) shall achieve 3% stipulated by member states in the long run, is particularly welcome.

• Agricultural Trade Policy: ‘America First’?

  89-93

  Bruce L. Ahrendsen

  Views:

  359

  There has been a growing openness and importance in trade over time as indicated by an increasing ratio of trade to gross domestic product for the World. However, some recent movements have been more protectionist and less open to trade. The potential impacts of less trade are explored with the United States (US) taken as an example. Trade agreements have been important in increasing trade by the US, particularly for US agriculture which has had a trade surplus since 1959. Countries should benefit from trade according to economic theory. However, stances taken by the US administration during the first half of 2017 have resulted in the withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Partnership Agreement and an announced renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. With falling US farm income, the potential undoing of trade agreement benefits, and possible trade retaliations, US agriculture is concerned about any potential disruption in exports and losses from less trade. In addition, US consumers and importers of US agriculture should be concerned about a potential decrease in trade.

  JEL Code: Q18