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Chile and the Global Depression
132-146Views:139The 2007-2009 economic crisis ended an exceptional, five year-long economic boom for Chile and other countries in Latin America. The most beneficial economic outcome of the upswing was the fundamental improvement of the region’s countries in terms of the current crisis, which greatly reduce these countries’ vulnerability to external economic shocks. Based on the previous assumption several economists shared the opinion that “This time things are different”. That is, the fate of the continent in the current crisis will be decided differently as the global downturn has barely affected the region’s economic indicators. However, from September 2008 it has become apparent that the continent’s economy remains vulnerable. The crisis, which has infected the real economy through multiple channels, has reached two major victims of the recession, - Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe – leaving them with a decline in GDP per capita and the slowdown of economic growth. Conversely, Chile experienced a decline of a lesser extent due to its structural reforms and was able to re-orientate to its previous growth path much quicker than the rest of the continent’s economy after the ending of the crisis.
JEL classification: O54, H12, O20
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The future of Russian outward foreign direct investment and the eclectic paradigm: What changes after the crisis of 2008–2009?
31-54Views:201This article explores the future of Russian outward foreign direct investment in the aftermath of the crisis of 2008–2009. As it is too early to analyse the full impact of the crisis, it develops hypotheses about the degree of slowdown in the foreign expansion of Russian transnational corporations. It uses an extension of the eclectic paradigm to home country advantages (competitive environment, business environment, development strategy, State involvement) applied to a comparison of the Russian Federation with other economies in transition as an analytical tool. Systematic differences between transnationals from the Russian Federation (global firms, based on natural resources, aiming for vertical integration of assets) and from new European Union member countries (regional firms, based on downstream activities or services, aiming for horizontal integration) allow us to formulate more solid conclusions about the future of the Russian firms facing lower export prices, lower market capitalizations and higher debts. In turn, this article argue that a comparison with the large emerging economies of Brazil, China and India, under the acronym of BRIC can be less useful in the current context, as these economies are significantly less affected by the crisis of 2008–2009 than the Russian Federation; hence they can not expect a slowdown in their outward foreign direct investment similar to that of Russian transnationals.
JEL: F23; F21; O52; P29
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Financial Crisis, Economic Policy and Economics
19-34Views:144Concerning the financial crisis in 2007-2009 many politicians and economists, in addition
to representatives of other disciplines have asked: why could it not have been avoided,
why could it not have been forecast? The present paper provides a new answer to these
questions. The main argument is that empirical economic policy reached a deadlock when
economists acknowledged the equilibrium models based on efficient market theory. The
static equilibrium paradigm which appeared in the middle of last century has strongly
prevailed to the present day, leaving aside Kornai’s (1971) or Benassy’s (1982) or Goodwin’s
(1991) warnings. Since the economy is never in equilibrium the simultaneous equations
describing it may not provide any guide for politicians; what they should do and how they
should do it in a time of economic crisis. The present author’s newest book (Móczár, 2008),
besides the dynamic equilibrium, also sketches a new paradigm, i.e., non equilibrium
modelling, instead of the orthodox equilibrium paradigm, which allows us to treat bubbles,
to regulate money markets etc. Its necessity is outlined here.JEL classification: E00, E5, E6, G28
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Production Efficiency Analysis of the Hungarian Meat Processing Industry
23-42Views:143This paper analyzes the performance of the Hungarian meat processing industry in the wake of the global financial crisis. Between 2011 and 2013 many high-capacity meat processors went bankrupt in Hungary. Possible reasons for that could be unfavorable market situation and inefficiency in production. In this paper, the latter hypothesis is examined. Two different types of production function estimation techniques are used to calculate firm-specific inefficiency estimates. Based on the estimation results, the lower bound of average firm-level efficiency is 0.50, while the upper bound is 0.88. Estimated firm-level inefficiencies are compared to the characteristics of the given firms. Pre-tax profit, company size and domestic ownership are associated with lesser inefficiency. On the other hand, time trend of inefficiencies indicate that the global financial crisis negatively affected the production efficiency of the meat processors. This can be a reason behind the bankruptcies happened.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: C33, L66
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The Impact of the Economic Crisis on the Development Lifecycles, the Short-term Plans and the Strategy of the Actors in the Hungarian SME Sector
29-43Views:208This study was prepared in the third phase of a multi-year research project. The goal of the program was to analyse the growth trajectories and strategies of Hungarian SMEs. Research in the first phase was focused on the specific periods of typical company lifecycles, the second phase dealt with strategic thinking, methods of strategy formulation and the content elements of strategies. The findings and conclusions were published in the journal Competitio. The present study is a report on the findings of the third phase of the research program. It describes the consequences of the recent economic and financial crisis on SMEs. It describes how unexpected and radical changes in the business environment influenced the development of firms, how managers reacted, and how they considered short and long
term factors in their decisions.JEL classification: L21, L26, M1
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The role of sovereign wealth funds in the international financial system
111-125Views:176While sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) were formerly considered to be passive financial investors, today we can see their active presence in international capital markets. As their assets are continuously growing under their management, they are likely to have important impacts both on the financial services sector and international capital movements as well. The aim of this study is to give an overall view of the role of sovereign wealth funds assumed during the credit crisis, as well as of their possible impacts on the economic and financial system. The problem of transparency will also be discussed, namely the lack of it, which derives from the fact that most sovereign wealth funds do not disclose any information about their activities, operations, and investments. Moreover, this study provides an insight into policy responses made on the international level concerning SWFs.
JEL classification: E58, F21, F30, G15
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Development of the Russian securities market
56-74Views:115The Russian securities market, considered relatively modern, came about within a year or two in the first half of the nineties without any antecedents and tradition. Parallel to the formation of the institution system both the stock and the bond market underwent a rapid expansion, which continued steadily up to the outburst of the financial crisis in 1997/1998. The collapse in August and September 1998 was followed by a relatively long stabilization period, and later security prices began to increase again and bond prices also levelled off. The current paper analyses the last decade of the Russian securities market, introduces its phases, gives a detailed description of the road leading to the crisis and collapse examining the peculiarities in a comprehensive way.
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The Effect of the Economic Crisis on Income Poverty in the Southern Great Plain Region
61-75Views:132The paper examines the effect of the economic crisis and the related negative economic phenomena on the income poverty of those living in the Southern Great Plain region. The regional income poverty is examined using the poverty measures based on the income data of workers and wage earners. I then analyse how economic performance affects poverty measures. The analysis proves that not only the economic growth of the given county, but also the economic performance of the neighbouring counties have an effect on the poverty rate. Economic growth, however, is not enough to reduce the depth of poverty; therefore other measures to improve the conditions of the poor are also required. In the end, the spatial autocorrelation is examined in the Southern Great Plain region.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: I32, R12
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The Roots of Euroscepticism in Hungary.: Economic Policy and Perceptions of the European Union in the Crisis
5-22Views:356The paper explores the relationships among three factors: economic policy, its evaluation, and perceptions of the European Union. It considers Hungary’s recent decade, primarily the years of the recent global financial and economic crisis. The analysis compares Hungary’s economic statistics and attitudes with those of other countries on the EU periphery. The main questions are the following: why and how Hungary has become a eurosceptic country? On what does the image of the EU (created in the population) depend? Is there any link between how the economic policy is being pursued on one hand, and the attitudes towards the EU, on the other? Is the evaluation of the national economy confirmed by the hard facts?
Journal of Economic Litterature (JEL) classifications: O520, Z130, P160
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The Relevance of the Washington Consensus for the Post-communist Countries
5-25Views:239The Washington Consensus (WC) is 20 years old now. With hindsight, its main significance is the unification of the normative economics. Prior to the WC, it was widely accepted that different policies should be pursued in the developed and in the underdeveloped economies. It was a sheer coincidence that the emergence of WC occurred a few months before the collapse of the communist systems of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. Many scholars believe that the WC is responsible for the recurring economic crisis of the last two decades. I reject this view. A 200-year track record confirms that depressions and financial crisis have been always the intrinsic components of market economies – for the reasons identified by Marx and Schumpeter long time ago.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: F02, F23, F41, P11, P36
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Market efficiency in relation to the financial crisis of 2008
31-50Views:379After the financial crisis of 2008 many scholars criticised the validity of the market efficiency hypothesis of the modern financial literature. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the adequacy of market efficiency based on Hungarian, and as a reference, on American securities. Besides classical statistical tools (autocorrelation function, Ljung-Box test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test), we also used new approaches of the literature (Variance Ratio test). In addition to the simple hypothesis tests we tried to separate the different type of time series and explain the reasons for the different behaviours.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: G140
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The role of dynamic relationship capabilities and loyalty in organisational relationships
76-92Views:259In this study we try to answer the question of how Hungarian organisations can be depicted in terms of relationship management in networked relationships, and how the nearly fouryear global economic crisis influences the perception of relationship capability and B2B loyalty in organisational relationships. First we review the theoretical background of dynamic relationship capabilities and B2B loyalty, then we show our empirical research results, and we try to identify the factors involved in relationship management and B2B loyalty. From our point of view relationship management has an effect on B2B loyalty, and we support the hypothesis that where relationship management is a conscious action, there are evolved procedures for this. These connected mechanisms have a positive impact on the evaluation of relationship quality and contribute to partners’ loyalty.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: M10, M14, M31, M39
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Az európai növekedési potenciál eróziója
5-23Views:108The potential growth rate in the EU Member States has been declining and lagging behind their competitors since the 1990's. Due to severe productivity problems in the EU (first of all the significant decrease in the total factor productivity dynamics) and the insufficient adaptation to the processes of globalisation, further remarkable and permanent decline in the potential growth rate is expected. Paradoxically the potential growth rate might decrease in the long run to a greater extent in the new Member States. As a result of the present global economic crisis new risks might appear. The riskss of the recurrence of shocks are significant. These factors project further erosion of the European growth potential. Integrated structural reforms and a comprehensive review of the European model are needed in order to overcome the unfavourable trends and put Europe on a more favourable growth path than the one indicated in this study.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: F15, F43
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The Risks of Global Financial Markets and the Importance of Credibility: Implications for Hungarian Fiscal Policy
27-44Views:105The central issue in the controversy about the adoption of the euro in Hungary is the difficulties associated with the fulfillment of the fiscal criterion and the possible growth sacrifice it requires. In this paper the author examines the question whether the strategy of delaying entry into the euro-zone implies that fiscal consolidation can be delayed as well. In approaching the problem the paper considers the origins and history of the present-day global financial markets and argues that given the high degree of systemic risks individual countries face responsible macroeconomic policies are crucial in minimizing vulnerability to
crises. Consequently in order to avoid excessive interest rates and speculative inflows (or currency crisis in the worst case scenario) fiscal deficits in Hungary would have to be cut and credibility of fiscal policy reestablished even without EMU accession. The overall conclusion from this overview is that delaying entry in order to delay fiscal adjustment is likely to increase the trade off between real and nominal convergence instead of mitigating it.JEL classification: F33, F41, H62
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On the Global Expansion of Venture Capital
60-69Views:139The venture capital industry has also been negatively affected worldwide by the financial crisis of 2008, thus the usual investment conditions have changed. One aim of the study is to provide an overview of the changes. As shown in the global trends, the level of the global annual venture capital investments in 2013 just reached the level of before 2008. Although in some Asian countries (China and India) the decline was not significant, unlike in the European countries. Another aim of the study is to examine whether there is a reality of an integrated global venture capital model, or it is different in each country. If there is a difference, then what kind of explanatory factors can be tracked back. On the basis of extensive international literature the article argues that there are a number of factors such as the characteristics of financial systems, the legal and institutional barriers and the culture that affect the emergence of an integrated venture capital model.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: G24
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Issues of the Regulation of Residential Credits
44-51Views:198The study focuses on the theoretical and practical issues of lending from the legal regulation point of view. After the 90’s the consumer social model was set up in Hungary, and it was linked to a fairly broad consumer credit activity. However, the regulation of lending was insufficient in many areas; consumer protection has hardly existed in the financial services market. Debtors were unprotected when facing the financial institutions, which concluded contracts not in their favour and restricted their rights. The economic crisis, and the great number of insolvent debtors, has emerged as a social problem for legislators, thus enabling them to amend lending rules and strengthen consumer protection in this area.
JEL classification: K 30
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Economy of Austria
125-148Views:159In my article I examine a member state of the European Union, the open and federal Austria, which can be considered as an example of a corporate economy. During the reconstruction period following the Second World War the Austrian economy was characterized by a frantic economic expansion. After the oil crisis, an incomparably low inflation rate and low unemployment, and the more dynamic than average economic growth attracted attention to the country. Due to the intensified external economic interest, the Austrian model - namely the economic policy and establishment - was widely studied at this time. However, at the beginning of the 1980's some structural problems appearing in the economy contributed to slowdown in growth, until the political changes of the year 2000, which finally brought a new favourable turn in economic policy. I start with an examination of Austria's economic status after the Second World War, then the development, changes and role of the Austrian social partnership. I go on to analyze today's Austria from the point of view of the sustainable balanced budget, focusing on the financial circumstances of the state, such as the complex financial connections derived from federalism.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL): H62, H63
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Analysis of Fiscal Policy in the Countries of the PaCifiCa
109-126Views:132Volatility has been a main factor in Latin America for decades, but these countries have managed to eliminate it more or less successfully by a series of reforms over the last few decades. Regional integrations have emerged in response to the challenges of globalisation. The most recently created integration is the PaCifiCa, and it is worth analyzing the current fiscal situation of its member states, which largely determines the success of future cooperation. Although the four countries observed managed to survive the 2007-2009 crisis with stable fundamentals, the downturn drew attention to the differences between these countries: while Chile and Peru are able to react easily to cyclical swings by applying countercyclical policy, the economies of Colombia and Mexico are much more vulnerable. The assessment of the welfare systems shows that although Chile has an extensive welfare system, the countries in the region still significantly lag behind the traditional concept of welfare state.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) code: H50, H60
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Corporate Governance from a Post-Communist Perspective
69-82Views:118In the aftermath of Enron and WorldCom scandals of 2001-2002, corporate governance (CG) has been put once again into the center of academic interest. Last time this happened in mid-1997, when a global financial crisis that began in Asia was widely attributed to appalling CG practices in Korea and Japan. Thus, for young readers this whole subject matter may seem to be an old hut. In reality, the term "corporate governance" has merely a 25 year old historiography. Systematic content analysis of the Anglo-Saxon press showed that the term CG arose first in the wake of the Watergate scandal. In the mid- to the late 1970s, public opinion suddenly discovered that major American corporations were involved in corrupt payments both at home and abroad. Prior to Wazergate scandal, competitive markets and good governance of business enterprises had been regarded as two sides of the same coin. It was a tacit understanding that well-run companies are honestly run companies and vice versa. Suddenly this equation was broken. Sence then the fast-growing CG literature has had a moral loading.