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The joining negotiations in rapport with the EMU
75-87Views:133The study surveys the field that deals with the Eastward expansion of the European Economic and Monetary Union /EMU/ after the joining negotiations, involving the probable legal, political and economic dilemmas and problems of the introduction of euro in Hungary. The joining contract and the relevant documents unambiguosly outlining the items within the monetary integration for the Hungarian economy can be planned. It also examines the chosen monetary integration for the Hungarian economy can be planned. It also examines the chosen monetary-political systems of the candidate for membership countries from the relevant European regulation point of view, just as the possibility of individual solutions.
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Az euró és az új tagállamok: közgazdasági vagy politikai kihívás?
69-94Views:120Az európai közös valutára vonatkozó első tervek megjelenése óta komoly vita dúl a vonatkozó szakirodalomban arról, hogy az euró elsősorban makroökonómiai vállalkozásként, vagy inkább az integrációt
a föderális alapú politikai unió előszobájába juttató kezdeményezésként értelmezendő-e. Ezzel a dilemmával analóg módon, az új tagállamok2 eurózónás csatlakozását övező polémia is részben elkülöníthető
egyrészt a jellemzően gazdasági előnyöket és hátrányokat mérlegelő, másrészt a politikai-választási szempontokat előtérbe helyező argumentációra. A vázolt problémakörhöz kapcsolódva a tanulmány elsőként áttekinti, hogy milyen tanulságok azonosíthatók a közgazdasági megfontolások alapján az euró átvételére megfogalmazott stratégiákat illetően. Részben e tényezők feltárásának köszönhetően szakmai körökben láthatóan egyetértés övezi az eurózóna keleti kibővítésének főbb kérdéseit. Ezzel szemben komoly tartalmi nézetkülönbségek fedezhetők fel a választási logikát, illetve az európai integráció stratégiai helyzetét megjelenítő érvek hátterében. Az írás második felében sorra veszem és részletesen elemzem az euró bevezetéséhez kötődő politikai szempontokat, amelyek alapos végiggondolása ugyanakkor nem kérdőjelezi meg az eurózónába való lehető leghamarabbi betagozódást sürgető konszenzusos szakmai álláspont helyességét. -
Corporate tax - a new paradigm is needed - I.: Income tax versus value-added tax
26-47Views:468Since the existence of the corporate tax institution, it has been a difficult task to determine the exact corporate tax base. As long as states are as large as possible, taxpayers, on the other hand, are interested in the smallest possible tax base. National and supranational rules for determining the tax base are changing with unrealistic frequency. It is almost impossible to enforce them, so conflicts between countries and between companies and tax administrations over corporate tax payable seem to be perpetuating. With the rise of trans- and multinational corporations, aggressive corporate tax planning and covert tax avoidance have also emerged. National governments are trying to prevent this with bilateral and multilateral treaties. Still, the verdicts of the recently revealed multi-billion euro/dollar corporate tax cases prove that they do not have a deterrent effect, meaning that the measures taken so far are far from sufficient to prevent them. In my research hypothesis, I argue that the corporate tax system's current form is unsustainable at both national and global levels due to its intricate design and manipulability and its high macro- and micro-level implicit costs. I will then propose a new value-added tax and tax rate to compensate for the loss of government revenue due to the abolition of corporate tax in an equivalent and essentially clear way. After that, I tested the proposed new type of tax based on the European Union countries' value-added data. Finally, I present the new global tax's territorial principle to replace corporate tax and its contribution to national public burden-bearing.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: C53, E62, H24, K34
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The timing of the EMU accession
45-62Views:262Following the Eu-accession the next major challenge is the preparation for and finally the introduction of the single currency for the Central Eastern European countries. In this paper, I analyze the legal, economic and political factors regarding the preparedness of the whole region, with special emphasis on Hungary. After taking the pros and cons of the official "as soon as possible" strategy into consideration, we can conclude that there is no convincing case for further postponing eurozone entry. Additionally, putting off the date indefinitely or ambiguously could result in growing economic uncertainty and dangerous financial instability. In the case of Hungary, it is very likely that the country would suffer serious loss of reputation and credibility were it to put off the target date a second time, i.e. beyond 2010. Lack of strong political commitment could unfortunately easily lead to a postponement of the adaption of the single currency. The potential implication might well be debated, but no doubt would be serious in terms of reputation and economic development.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E42, E58, F33
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Is growth sustainable without rules-based policy?
Views:117The article examines conditions for rules-based fiscal policy in the European Union and discusses the consequences of softening up the Stability and Growth Pact by the March 2005 Council. It surveys arguments in favor of rules-based policy and proves that most of the arguments in favor of softening up the Pact, as well as the concrete steps of modification do not contribute to lasting and improved fiscal solidity in the euro area, but follow opportunistic political considerations of the big member states. It shows why the modifications make the life of the new entrants more difficult and allow for lax fiscal policies and secular slowdown of growth.
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Roadmap for the adoption of the euro in Hungary: dangers and opportunities
Views:173In April 2003, the EU Accession Agreement was officially signed for the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic. These countries are destined to become EU members in May 2004. As part of the “acquis communautaire”, participation in the new version of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II), and subsequently in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is obligatory for all new EU members (no opt-out clause is available). Therefore, the question today for the accession countries is no longer whether or not to enter the eurozone but rather the time horizon when the entry should happen.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) code: E42, E58, F33.
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The Risks of Global Financial Markets and the Importance of Credibility: Implications for Hungarian Fiscal Policy
27-44Views:105The central issue in the controversy about the adoption of the euro in Hungary is the difficulties associated with the fulfillment of the fiscal criterion and the possible growth sacrifice it requires. In this paper the author examines the question whether the strategy of delaying entry into the euro-zone implies that fiscal consolidation can be delayed as well. In approaching the problem the paper considers the origins and history of the present-day global financial markets and argues that given the high degree of systemic risks individual countries face responsible macroeconomic policies are crucial in minimizing vulnerability to
crises. Consequently in order to avoid excessive interest rates and speculative inflows (or currency crisis in the worst case scenario) fiscal deficits in Hungary would have to be cut and credibility of fiscal policy reestablished even without EMU accession. The overall conclusion from this overview is that delaying entry in order to delay fiscal adjustment is likely to increase the trade off between real and nominal convergence instead of mitigating it.JEL classification: F33, F41, H62
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Challenges ahead for the European Union
7-12Views:124It is a mild understatement that nowadays the EU is navigating in rough waters. Close to half of the member countries of the Euro area are in breach of their fiscal stability commitment – and some of them very substantially. Quite a few heads of government publicly criticise the ECB’s monetary policy. Germany and France are determined to water down the Bolkenstein directive on the implementation of a genuine single market for services (which amount to about two-thirds of the EU’s GDP), to which, incidentally, no major objections had been raised by the governments of the member states during the drafting stage. There is no agreement on the longer term EU budget. Only Ireland, the UK and Sweden accept the free movement of the residents of the ten countries which became members of the EU in May last year.
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The role of France in the economy of the EU
207-224Views:111The author examines the decisive role of France within the EU. After a preliminary examination of the principles of European integration and its historical development, the article analyses the netwrok of connections existing between the EU and the French economy, as well as the period of growth and retrenchment in its development. The main theme of the article is the debate over the stability and growth pact and the circumstances and consequences of the failure to comply with the pact's rules caused by the France's long-lasting budget. This failure calls into question, and in the long term may be fatal for the future of European integration and for the direction of a common supra-national economic policy and the national responses it requires. The common European currency, and the stability and future of the Euro are also affected, since this failure can influence the co-operative efforts of the various elements of the European Union in an unprecedented way. It also affects the relationships bewteen the smaller and larger countries, and the economic opportunities of all member states.