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Adatbányászat üzleti szemmel (I. rész)
Views:109Organizations in the 21st century - whether they are profitoriented or not, in private ownership or state-owned - can increase their efficiency with an outstanding tool. This tool is data mining. This article first of all defines and presents data mining, and locates it in the process of 'Knowledge Discovery in Databases'. Following this we review the fields of employment of data mining and the basic methods employed. In particular we discuss the method of classification and the theoretical background of the main techniques, such as decision trees, neural networks and logistic regression models. The second part of this paper presents the real world application of this technology by way of an analysis of a real database.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: C25, C44, C45, C49
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Study the past as if you would define the future!? - Testing the effectiveness of technical analysis on the Budapest Stock Exchange
201-214Views:173Technical analysis is an attempt to forecast prices of a financial asset by the study of its past prices. This technique has been an element of financial practice for many decades, but it has not recieved general acceptance in academic literature. In this paper I analyze the effectiveness of certain technical trading rules on the Budapest Stoch Exchange between 1999 and 2005. In the first step I test if there are trading rules that can be qualified as effective when the analysis is applited to the full seven-year period. Some worries arise concerning the long-term analysis, so in the next step I test whether the effectiveness of the trading rules change if the analysis is applied to one-year sub-periods. The results indicate that it is worth implementing the short-term analysis because it shows a different picture of the effectiveness of the trading rules. However, the results of the short-term analysis show that if these trading rules are tested on one-year sub-periods, it becomes doubtful that they are effective.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: G14, G15
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A Review of Hungarian Research Antecedents and the Assessment of Fair Trade in Hungary
54-68Views:521Fair trade is a civil initiative aiming to provide fair conditions to the poor producers of the Third World and enable them to follow a sustainable model of development. This realigned commercial partnership is to modify the rules of traditional international trade between the producers of the southern nations and purchasers of the northern hemisphere and replace them with a novel alternative. Fair trade has unified techniques of labeling and a well-established institutional system in order to change the rules of the game that have controlled the dominant economic model. The main tool of the movement is the engagement of conscious and socially responsible consumers towards the topic. This review summarizes the Hungarian reports and studies done about the issue so far and introduces the present circumstances in Hungary.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) code: F13, F18, J81, P45
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The role of France in the economy of the EU
207-224Views:111The author examines the decisive role of France within the EU. After a preliminary examination of the principles of European integration and its historical development, the article analyses the netwrok of connections existing between the EU and the French economy, as well as the period of growth and retrenchment in its development. The main theme of the article is the debate over the stability and growth pact and the circumstances and consequences of the failure to comply with the pact's rules caused by the France's long-lasting budget. This failure calls into question, and in the long term may be fatal for the future of European integration and for the direction of a common supra-national economic policy and the national responses it requires. The common European currency, and the stability and future of the Euro are also affected, since this failure can influence the co-operative efforts of the various elements of the European Union in an unprecedented way. It also affects the relationships bewteen the smaller and larger countries, and the economic opportunities of all member states.
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The dynamic of Hungary's Agro-Food Trade in the Global Economy
26-35Views:124We analyse the evolving pattern of Hungary's agro-food trade using recently developed emprirical procedures based around the classic Balassa index and its symmetric transformation. The extent of trade specialisation exhibits a declining trend; Hungary has lost comparative advantage for a number of product groups over time. The indices of specialisation have also tended to converge. For particular product groups, the indices display a less persistent pattern. They are stable for product groups with comparative disadvantage, but product groups with weak or strong comparative advantage show significant variation. The results reinforce the finding of a general decrease in specialisation but do not support the idea of self-reinforcing mechanisms, emphasised strongly in much of the endogenous groeth and trade literature.
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Consumers' and producers' evaluation of quality
157-168Views:94Quality concepts of consumers and producers are different. This leads to a significant loss in efficiency, because producers plan their marketing activity based on an estimated consumers' quality concept, which is mostly incorrect. This study argues that instead of merely mapping the consumers' quality concept, producers should actively form it, while taking into account the limitations of the consumer's information processing system.
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Sustainability of growth in countries with diverse backgrounds in the light of main international indices
145-168Views:120The paper tries to answer why fossil fuel abundant countries with diverse backgrounds perform differently depending on the dominance of the advantages or disadvantages accruing from natural resource wealth. With the contribution of the most popular competitiveness and institutional indices the determining factors are indentified. The distinctive factors are market efficiency, the quality of the business environment, innovative capability, the quality and efficiency of governmental, market and judicial institutions, the low level of corruption and the existence of political and civil freedom.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: O13, O17, Q32
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University Ranking Lists and Mirror Images - as Prospective Students Make Their Choice
78-91Views:145The paper is based on a survey carried out by the authors, which aimed, on the one hand, at specifying the extent to which would-be students know the rankings of universities and take them into consideration when choosing university faculties, and, on the other hand, at revealing the role played by other factors in their decisions. The majority of would-be students know the rankings of universities but these have not became an important factor in the decision processes. To have good lecturers and professors, to acquire useful knowledge, and to obtain a job with their degree are considered by would-be students as crucial factors. They try to get information from several sources and the Internet has become the most important one, which they use routinely and with skill. On the other hand, it can be proved that they would like to rely on more customized information sources as well.
JEL classification: Z13
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Adminisztratív kultúra a közigazgatásban – a teljesítmény-megítélés tendenciái
75-102Views:194Mi magyarázza individuális-szervezeti oldalról a bürokrácia (közigazgatás) teljesítményt érintő reformjainak kudarcát, és mi az összefüggés a kultúra és a bürokratikus teljesítmény között? A kérdésre választ keresve jelen írás feltételezi, hogy a bürokratikus teljesítmény jellemzői (és nehéz változtathatósága) hozzájárulnak a közigazgatási teljesítmény-megítélés tendenciáihoz. A közigazgatás verbális modelljének értelmezési keretén belül bevezeti az adminisztratív kultúra összetett fogalmát. Végül empirikus példákkal támasztja alá a közigazgatási teljesítmény-megítélés két fő tendenciáját: a homogenitási és szelektivitási problémát.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kódok: D73, H70, M14
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The examination of the relationship between foreign working capital investment and economic growth on the basis of European examples
150-166Views:122In the past decade several studies have been published in Hungary as well on the role of foreign working capital investment and the economic effects of the presence of multinational companies. This paper explores what role working capital investments (their type, size etc.) have played in the transformation and modernization of Hungary and in her integration into world trade. After a short theoretical and historical survey it presents the experience of some European countries which the literature often mentions by comparing them to Hungary, for on the basis of their size, population, geographical location and level of economic development they have often met similar economic policy dilemmas and choice-making. Then it examines what effects foreign working capital influx had on the given economies and - ina wider sense - on their social development, and in addition, what kinds of undesirable consequences it had.
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Paradigmaváltás a fejlődés-gazdaságtanban
109-124Views:153A szerző kutatásaiban az urbanizációs válság vizsgálatával foglalkozik a fejlődő országokban. A témát fejlődés-gazdaságtani problémaként közelíti meg. Ennek megfelelően jelen cikkben - háttértanulmányként- a fejlődés-gazdaságtani elméleteket tekinti át újszerű megközelítésben: azt vizsgálja, hogy az állam milyen szerepet tölt be az egyes fejlesztési modellekben, és milyen jövő áll ezen tudományág előtt. Bemutatja, hogyan változott a tudományos gondolkodás a fejlődés értelmezését illetően, majd felvázolja egy interdiszciplináris, újradefiniált fejlődés-gazdaságtan szükségességét és lehetőségét.
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Western Balkans: Opportunities for Agriculture on the Eve of EU Accession
52-73Views:156The Western Balkan countries can be characterised by their shared goal, which is to achieve the quickest accession to the European Union. Agriculture is an important obstacle to achieving this goal. The role of agriculture differs widely among the countries analysed but is more important than the average of the EU. This study gives a comprehensive overview of the most important agricultural indicators. These indicators allow us to acquire a precise picture of the sector’s relevance, production structure, efficiency and international relations. After demonstrating changes in input use, production structure, prices, terms of trade and agricultural policies, the next section identifies some of the reasons for these changes. The analysis concentrates on the most recent years for which data is available. In the last few years Serbia became the leading producer and the only net exporter of agricultural goods in the region. Nevertheless, the current situation is endangered by several issues, such as imbalanced sectoral production, fragmented production structure, relatively low yields, unfavourable export composition, and poor food hygiene and quality control, which anticipate painful and difficult measure which need to be carried out.
JEL classification: Q15, Q17, Q18