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• A gazdasági növekedés gyorsításának esélyei Magyarországon 2030-ig

  5-26

  Peter Mihalyi

  Views:

  128

  The regime change in 1989/1990 has not produced the expected result: Hungary has not been able to catch-up with the Western market economies. Can Hungary grow 2-3 times faster then its competitors during the next 20 years, as the present Hungarian government declared in its economic plans? Can Hungary improve its relative position and catch-up with the per capita GDP level of the EU-27 average by 2030? The conclusion of the paper is that this is very unlikely to happen. But there is ample room for accelerating productivity growth, and in this regard, every percentage difference counts enormously in the long-term. Three factors of production are analyzed: the natural-physical-geographical endowments of Hungary (N), Labour (L) and the capital stock (C). The following new findings are discussed. First, contrary to the widely held view, the amount of labour currently used by the Hungarian economy is not low in international comparison. The education of the workforce is also adequate. The problem is its allocation: too many workers are employed in low productivity, small firms. The only way forward is to promote the concentration of enterprises, to support the increase in the number of medium-sized and large firms. Second, the rate of domestic savings needs to be increased considerably, to allow for a low-cost financing of investments. In turn, this requires a substantial reform in three areas: healthcare, pensions and higher education. As long as the welfare state exists in its present form and these three spending items are largely financed by the state, one cannot reasonably expect households to save and accumulate families" long-term reserves in financial assets. But before these changes happen the political alite must accept that the obstacles to productivity growth have to be removed from the legal and political stuctures.

  JEL classification: E66, O47, O50, O52

• Openness and growth

  126-134

  Peter Foldvari

  Views:

  120

  The classical theory of commerce encourages the liberalization of international trade on the grounds that this contributes considerably to the growth of welfare. This study sets out to explore this hypothesis empirically by analysing the relationship between external market openness and per capita GDP examined in twenty-two OECD countries between 1950 and 2000. The results bear out to support the existence of a positive correlation. The novelty of the study is that the author pays special attention to the temporal aspects of the interaction between openness and per capita GDP which can be characterised in terms of a nonstationary and nonlinear trend, as expected.

• Integration of the CEE agri-food sector into the EU: What does trade theory and empirical evidence tell us?

  62-77

  Imre Ferto

  Views:

  140

  The article provides an overview on the main results of empirical research into the Integration of the CEE agri-food sector into the EU. Contrary to early expectations, countries in the region have not become major agri-food exporters. We can observe great diversity in trade specialisations, the patterns of intra-industry trade and price and quality competitiveness among countries and major product groups. These outcomes derive mainly from the differences in relative factor endowments and the different initial conditions of the countries concerned. The recent theoretical and empirical developments in international
  trade may help us to better understand the agri-food trade integration of new member states.

  JEL classification: Q12

• Testing the long run equilibrium relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary macro-fundamentals

  36-58

  Andrea Szabo

  Views:

  122

  The pure time series testing of long-run monetary models of exchange rate determination and its fundamental building block, purchasing power parity, in the most cases fails to support the conjectures of the theory. Thus, the empirical literature increasingly uses the panel technique when testing both models because the power of the panel unit root and panel cointegration tests seems higher than their time series obverse. In the article we examine the validity of the monetary exchange rate models and purchasing power parity over the period 1996Q1-2011Q4 for US dollar exchange rates of 15 OECD countries using
  panel cointegration tests. The results show moderate empirical support for monetary exchange rate models and also purchasing power parity.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: F31, F41, C33

• A Conjectured Cournot Duopoly Model for the EU–US Automobile Trade: A Game Theoretic Analysis of the TTIP’s Most Traded Product

  48-70

  Eszter Kovács

  Views:

  220

  Economic actors, in their interactions with each other, certainly make decisions which are able to improve their original situation. In the case of free trade agreements, tariffs have the effect to manipulate countries’ trade and welfare. In this paper, we try to estimate the impacts of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on the profit level of participating countries in the context of the Cournot duopoly model. More specifically, we elaborate the most traded product (MTP) and determine the profit levels in the equilibrium regarding two scenarios (pre and post situations of the TTIP). The findings suggest that the Cournot model seems suitable since it illustrates the possible options and provides a guideline for the decision-making process. Based on the model, it can be shown at which point the highest benefit can be achieved for the participating economies (EU, US) i.e. how long it is worth for the parties to apply additional automotive tariffs.

• Financial Crisis, Economic Policy and Economics

  19-34

  Jozsef Moczar

  Views:

  129

  Concerning the financial crisis in 2007-2009 many politicians and economists, in addition
  to representatives of other disciplines have asked: why could it not have been avoided,
  why could it not have been forecast? The present paper provides a new answer to these
  questions. The main argument is that empirical economic policy reached a deadlock when
  economists acknowledged the equilibrium models based on efficient market theory. The
  static equilibrium paradigm which appeared in the middle of last century has strongly
  prevailed to the present day, leaving aside Kornai’s (1971) or Benassy’s (1982) or Goodwin’s
  (1991) warnings. Since the economy is never in equilibrium the simultaneous equations
  describing it may not provide any guide for politicians; what they should do and how they
  should do it in a time of economic crisis. The present author’s newest book (Móczár, 2008),
  besides the dynamic equilibrium, also sketches a new paradigm, i.e., non equilibrium
  modelling, instead of the orthodox equilibrium paradigm, which allows us to treat bubbles,
  to regulate money markets etc. Its necessity is outlined here.

  JEL classification: E00, E5, E6, G28 

• Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime: the Role of Optimum Currency Area Theory

  21-40

  Julius Horvath

  Views:

  98

  This lecture deals with the problem of the choice of exchange rate regime for fiat and fully convertible currencies. We begin with a review of different types of exchange rate regimes and discuss the difference between de jure and de facto regimes. We also briefly talk about how classification of exchange rate regimes leads to different interpretations of the relationship between regime and macroeconomic performance. Afterwards we give a short discussion of the vanishing intermediate exchange rate regime hypothesis. In the second part of the lecture we mention five different approaches to the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime and provide a general overview of the literature on optimum currency areas.

• Attention in the world of information goods - an analysis of scarcity

  1-20

  Balazs Hamori

  Views:

  146

  Attention as a form of service can also act as a source for the crearion of value. In its functional and market interconnections, attention is product of labour (product or service) and, as an exchangeable good, is naturally exchanged for money. The system of sxchange provides a significant amount of accurate information about the division of attention within society - the degree to which it reflects recognition by the individual and the community. The forum of exchange of attention can be viewed as the openness of society, while the internet is its international market place. However attention also played an important role in the 'old economy'; indeed in some cases attention was the central tool in its creation. Direct, personal services aimed at human beings (teaching, legal and health services) always demanded great attention. If nowadays a product itself is the main part of the service provided, attention becomes an important and decisive resource in the use of a product. The growing individualisation in the provision of goods and services, the increasingly direct interaction between people, and last, but not least, the transformation to a virtual level, necessarily increases the demand for attention in economic transactions- Unlike traditional goods, the outstanding feature of services, and more specifically intellectual goods, is the ability of consumers to devote sufficient time and attention to their use and to acquiring the necessary competence to use them. For the providers of these goods the ability to hold the attention of consumers/clients is often the crucial feature of competitive success. Praise, excellence and prestige are all manifestations of acquired attention. In this sense attention acts as a store of value, although it cannot be dircetly and easily compared with acquisition mechanism associated with money and other products. The economy of attention raises questions rather than offering defensible theses or clear statements. Even less does it allow us to claim that a theory could be crystallised in this field to explain how the expanding phenomenon of the non-material sector of the economy function in the economy as a whole. There is no doubt however that attention is a supremely important subject of research in the new economy.

• Possible solutions of the purchasing power parity puzzle, improvements of the theoretical model

  61-78.

  Andrea Szabó

  Views:

  142

  Purchasing power parity (PPP) is one of the most fundamental theories in international economics. However, its empirical validity is still controversial, an issue referred to in the literature as the purchasing power parity puzzle. This paper summarizes the different explanations for the empirical failures of the PPP, and proposes steps for improvements in the theory by focusing on the importance of using appropriate empirical methodology when confirming or rejecting the PPP hypothesis.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: F31, F41

• A literature review of Happiness and Economics and guide to needed research

  117-131

  Thomas Wiese

  Views:

  612

  Happiness and Economics as a new branch of behavioural economics has had a major impact on economic theory and economic policy: Several studies have been published in the last 20 years in leading journals. Furthermore, several governments have decided to collect data about the well-being of their citizens. The author claims that utility cannot only be measured by the choices individuals do: Reported happiness and life satisfaction data is also an acceptable empirical estimate for individual utility. Consequently, happiness research can bear new knowledge and important understanding of human welfare. Therefore, this paper gives an overview of the existing literature. Methods and approach of scholars is critically analysed and shortcomings are discussed. Thereafter, findings on major economic issues like growth, unemployment and inflation are presented. Besides, governmental policy and implications for society are debated. Lastly, future research possibilities are mentioned.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Classification: D60 D63 I31

• Intraindustrial trade in the light of theoretical explanations and empirical investigations

  78-104

  Laszlo Erdey

  Views:

  175

  The Heckscher-Ohlin (HO) model regarde as a modern theory of trade, dominant for more than a quarter of a century had to face more and more challenges in the second half of the 20th century. It seemed that the 2*2*2 (product-factor-country) model, which assumed perfect competition, constant return to scale and homgeneous products and whose elegance was rooted in its simplicity, could not offer appropriate answers for the explanation of empirical facts in two significant areas. The conclusion of the model, namely that countries will have a comparatvie advantage in the productions of goods for which they use factors of production relatively abundant in the country, was first questioned by the Leontief paradox and later by the empirical facts of intraindustrial trade. The study focuses on this latter phenomenon. In the first part it presents and classifies the major theoretical models of the phenomenon, and in the second it discusses, on the basis of empirical surveys in this field, the most important factors influencing intraindustrial trade.

• The role of culture in economic growth: an assessment, criticism and paths for future research

  22-44

  Judit Kapás

  Views:

  222

  There is an abundance of empirical literature on the impact of culture on economic development. This literature has been developing at the margin of growth theory and institutional economics. This paper reviews this branch of the literature by structuring it into three main lines, and placing an emphasis on (self)-criticism directed towards it, as well. The author provides some proposals for further steps towards improving the culturegrowth empirical literature, following the two routes identified by the (self)-criticism.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: O43, Z19

• Regional factors affecting the rushed and balanced growth of territorial capital

  62-80

  György Jóna

  Views:

  165

  Adapting the precepts of Kornai’s rushed economic growth theory, this paper compares the harmonic and rushed growth of territorial capital in the Hungarian sub-regions between 2004 and 2010. In the empirical analysis, the article applies the methodology of the concept of territorial capital. The empirical results indicate that the causes of the rushed growth of territorial capital can be found in underdeveloped infrastructural capital and the simultaneous development of socioeconomic inequalities. The effects of the rushed growth of territorial capital could be controlled and eliminated by adequately integrating tools of regional development, economic development and public policy.
  

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kódok: C62, C68, Q01, R58