Search
Search Results
-
The economic risk analysis in the case of agricultural enterprises
107-116Views:112The company’s activity, profitability and growth potential are influenced by risk and uncertainty derived from the economic environment. The principal thing that makes difference between risk and uncertainty is the capacity to be quantified, and then the risk can be measured, whereas uncertainty is not. Specific risk types of agricultural enterprises are on the one hand the economic risk and specific risk arising from the main agricultural activity. The economic risks include financial risk categories like market risk, liquidity risk, credit risk and operational risk. Macroeconomic risk manifest also a significant influence to the company and the importance of taking into account of this, importantly increased in recently years. In present paper, I quantified the total risk of company by using financial and operating leverage indicators. The company’s growth was characterized with internal growth rate and sustainable growth rate. The present research aims to explore risk and growth level of agricultural companies and grouping companies by different characteristics. In present analysis I have used cluster analysis. From the results I can summarize, that the agricultural enterprises growth is made by using internal financing resources and their financial leverage level is lower that operating leverage level.
-
Managing risk using real options in company’s valuation
125-132Views:133The valuation of company is very important because provides information about the current value/situation of company, and through this, provide the opportunity of choosing the best company’s growth alternatives. The future strategic decisions are characterized by lack of knowledge, information, so all measures of company’s growth are closely linked with uncertainty and risk. The company’s valuation process is also related with uncertainty and risk. The risk may result both from the assessed assets and the technique used. In literature, we could find three approaches for risk management: capital budgeting based method, methods based on portfolio analysis and real options approach of risk management. Among them, the real options based methods is the most revolutionary approach for risk management. The advantages of the method, consists in the fact, that the process of establishing strategic decisions integrates the possibility of reversibility, delay and rejections, which isn’t it possible at two previous methods. The method also takes into account the total risk of company, so both the company-specific and systematic risk. In this study, I have used one of the best-known real option based method, the Black-Scholes model, for determining the option’s value. Determination of option value is based on the data of enterprise, which was tested Monte Carlo simulation. One of the basic assumptions of the Black-Scholes model is that the value of option is influenced by several factors. The sensitivity of option’s value could be carried out with so-called “Greeks”.. In the study the sensitivity analysis, was carried out with indicators Delta (Δ), Gamma (Γ) and Vega (ν). The real options based risk management determinations were performed in the R-statistics software system, and the used modules are 'fPortofio' and 'mc2d'. By using of real options method, I have calculated the average value of company capital equal with 38.79 million. By using simulation was carried out 1000 runs. The results of this show a relatively low standard deviation, small interquartile range and normal distribution. In the calculation of indicator Delta, could be concluded the value of company moves in 0.831 proportion to the price of options, the standard deviations of index is low, so the real option based method could be used with success in company’s value estimation. The Gamma index shows the enterprise value is sensitive just for large changes. The result of Vega reflects the value of option, so the company’s value volatility, which is small in this case, but this means a volatility of value. In summary, we can conclude that the call options pricing model, well suited for the determination of company’s value.
-
Risk and Risk Management in the Hungarian Sheep Sector
25-29Views:65The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the risk attitudes of Hungarian sheep producers regarding the changes they have had to go through since the political changes of 1989-1990. Moreover, the objective of this study is to strengthen the empirical basis for risk analysis by identifying the importance of farmers’ risk attitudes. The results of a nationwide survey of over 500 sheep farmers presented a framework of risk attitudes, risk sources and applied risk management techniques of livestock producers.
-
Methodologies in measuring risk of financial statements
117-120Views:63Aim of financial statements’ risk analysis is to optimally allocate the audit resources. That optimum point can be reached, if we achieve maximum possibility of recovery of material risks. There are more than one procedures exist for researching of optimum point or risk assessment in other word, and they are needed to use even parallel. In order to take into consideration effects of risk we need to measure them somehow. At risk assessments risks are usually some kind of result of impact and possibility. Knowledge and measurement of impacts and possibilities are far not enough for assessment of certain risks. In this study I will present a possible usable risk assessment methodology for financial audit activities with using Multi Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT in the followings).
-
A practical means of setting the scene for evaluating aggregated absorption risk in EU co-funded programmes related to project failure
63-66Views:106The main purpose of the mid-term evaluation of grant programmes is to assess relevance, progress, effectiveness and efficiency. There are several methodologies, tools and techniques applied in various evaluations to assess these programme aspects. An important area of the evaluation of both the financial progress and the effectiveness of the programme is to evaluate the risk of absorption which is indicated by various factors, inter alia risk of supported project failure. If a project fails in any EU co-funded programme in the stage of preparation or implementation, then the fund already committed to that particular project (assumed to have already been absorbed or “spent”) is to be reused again or is to face decommitment (funds have to be paid back to the EU). There are strict EU regulations governing the time scale of this re-use (n+2, n+3 rules), therefore it is of major importance to assess the risk severity (measured as the resultant of the volume of grant at risk and the chance of project failure) and build up an early warning mechanism which indicates if the risk reaches a critical level that requires immediate intervention.
-
The Possibilities of Futures and Option Hedge in Price Risk Management for GrainProduction
72-80Views:76The greataest risk tograin production is fluctuation in market prices, which is over 50% over the course of a year; and year by year, as well. There are real market circumstances in the grain market, instead of state guaranteed fix prices, which was the norm under the former political system.
According to the general opinion of producers, losses come from their defencelessness against buyers. The real situation is that price risk can be managed by suitable market strategy, and loss production can be avoided.
Hungary has a futures market (which is organized according to the CBOT system) in the grain sector, which is an unique institute in Europe. This organisation is suitable for hedge businesses and it has convenient technical and institutional background.
There are two possibilities to make hedge business. One of them is the short hedge with futures contract when the producer sells his product for long term if an acceptable profit is included in market price. In this case seller can protect himself against low market prices.
This technique can be considered as professional for price risk management, but possibly has financial cost because of the weak financial situation of Hungarian producers this solution seems expensive for them.
There is an other possibility in the Commodity Exchange for manage price risk, that is the option technique. This solution is suitable for insure prices as well, and has an other additional advantage, namely: there is no financial costs in this case. -
The Role of the Digital Terrain Models in the Assessment of Surplus Water Risk at the Szolnok-Túri Plain
47-51Views:95The environmental factors to which surplus water can be assigned (topography, soil, groundwater, vegetation etc.) can be subject to special analysis and the randomness of the occurrences can be limited. The results of these procedures are surplus water risk maps of the areas, which can be utilised in land use planning. The risk map of the research site was created with overlaying digital category maps of the determining factors (hydraulic conductivity, convexity, critical probability of ground water level and land use).
-
Evaluation of the relationship between main type traits and longevity in Hungarian Simmental cows
205-209Views:108The Hungarian Simmental cattle is a dual-purpose breed, having good milk and meat production characteristics. Simmental cows have some other important traits, for example, a longer productive life. The longevity or productive life is the time period between first calving and culling. The conformation contributes to productive life, reproduction, and milk production.
The aims of this study were to analyze the longevity of Hungarian Simmental dual-purpose cows, to evaluate the effects of the size of the herd, age at first calving, main type traits (frame, musculature, feet and legs, mammary system), and combination of main type traits (frame and musculature, feet and legs and mammary system).
Animal, age at first calving, herd*calving, musculature, the mammary system as well as the combination of mammary system and feet and legs were significant effects on longevity. The highest risk ratio was observed for cows first calved after 31 months. The risk of culling increased with increasing scores of musculature and decreasing scores of the mammary system. The highest risk ratio was estimated in category 11 (lower scores of mammary system with lower scores of feet and legs). In this case, the risk ratio was 36% higher than the reference group.
-
Significance of risk assessment metric in audit of financial statements and reports
215-225Views:66Management and decision-support of today’s businesses require design and application of management reports based and high-end controlling systems. One of the main source of information for controlling systems is financial accounting that should be designed to support planning, controlling and monitoring systems. Financial and accounting information is essential for decision making support of organizations. Therefore
eligible assurance is needed that these information are true and fair. Internal and external financial audits as assurance qualifiers are linking to the controlling systems through assurance. Weaknesses of and threats to controlling systems shall be recovered and communicated to the management during qualifying process. Recovering of threats should be based on risk analysis, assessment. In this study I would like to present some methods and tools of risk assessment of financial reports, statements and a way on they can be further developed. -
Simulation of optimizing decisions and risk analysis in investment plans
160-164Views:88Investments always contain risks, as data referring to the future are planned and uncertain. Therefore, besides feasibility analyses we need to perform risk analyses, as well. Through statistic simulation methods, our aim is to examine how uncertain and prospective data as risk factors affect investment-profitability indices. On the other hand, our aim is to find out the optimal innovation – financing decisions by using decision optimizing
methods. -
Production and economic risk analysis of pig fattening
171-176Views:116I prepared a “model farm” producing fattening pigs in order to examine the main risk of production and market factors affecting the profitability of fattening pig production. Values of body weight (at the beginning of fattening and at the end of fattening), mortality rate, feed conversion ratio (FCR) of fattening pig as well as the main cost and price data were recorded as the input data of the model. Production value per unit, production cost per unit and income per unit were used as output. The Monte-Carlo simulation was used in the model for risk assessment. Based on the results of the analysis, it was concluded that the production value per unit was most affected by the selling price of fattening pig (ß=0.972), the production cost per unit were most influenced by the body weight at the beginning of fattening (ß=0.567) and the feed conversion ratio (ß=0.537), in addition, the change of the income per unit was most determined by the previously factors.
-
The methodology of Event History analysis and its application in the quality control of raw milk
74-79Views:61Event-history analysis is among the most frequently adopted mathematical methods, mainly due to the numerous types of models, available in the analysis. This method is also appropriate for analysing risk. Specifically, it has been employed in medical and animal-breeding science to manage risks. In this article, I give a presentation of the basic concepts, the basic types of models and their theoretical basis. I deal with the nonparametric Kaplan Meier and the parametric Cox proportional hazard model. The case study is also analysed with these methods. The results shows, that the 16-stall caroussel is the most effective facility from the viewpoint of quality. Milking into assay crucible (sample- cup) is more effective than to the floor after 16 decades.
-
Analysis of human factors in wiev of safety at some agricultural companies in Hajdú-Bihar county
109-115Views:64The author examined the human social influence factors of the occupational safety and health and number of workers at thirteen different agricultural firms. He’d measured at these enterprises the demographic characteristics and the risk sensibility of farmlabourers at scopes of activities and some related occupational safety and health attitudes from the psychosocial factors. He used questionnaire and personal guided interviews and methodical examinations. He used seven graded Likert-scale (-3...0...+3) (Malhotra, 2005) for qualification of answers. He established that selection by the leaders don’t prefer the special skills. He stated that the examined farm-labourers have got a low risk sensibility, but the statistics of the accidents not certifies it. With the occupational safety and health related attitudes influence the relation to the occupational safety and health, and to comply with OSH rules. It was established that the rate of quasi-accidents is relative high at agricultural workers.
-
Optimal age of breeding gilts and its impact on lifetime performance
15-20Views:491Age at first breeding and lifetime reproductive performance was analyzed on 17,558 F1 Landrace x Yorkshire gilts from 9 piglet producing herds of Midwest, United States entered in herds between 1st Jan 2014 and 31st July 2016. At the time of data collection Dec 2018, 15% of the sows were still active in the herds hence excluded from the analysis. Individual gilt data included date of birth, age in days at first mating, piglet total born by parity, lifetime piglet total born and reason for culling. Quality data checks were done before analysis to eliminate all outlier values together with sows that had no entry information for any listed category. The total database of the sows was classified into 6 classes according to age at the first mating in days 170-190(n=754), 191-211(n=4683), 212-232(n=7123), 233-253(n=3385), 254-274(n=1002) and 275-369 (n=611). Piglet total born obtained from each sow during the lifetime production was significantly (P < 0.05) greater for gilts bred between 233-253 days of age at first mating. Gilts that were bred at <233 days appeared to have a higher risk of removal by farrowing productivity as compared to the other groups. However, the results show that the risk of being culled due to health problems and conformation issues increases as the age at first mating is delayed. Overall reproductive failure appears to be the most economical culling reason across all age groups. There is a need to evaluate the best management decisions for gilt initiation in a herd to maximize her lifetime performance. The results indicate that gilts mated for the first time at the right age, 233–253 days, are more productive, both in lifetime total born and have a minimal risk of culling due to farrowing productivity.
-
Post-control of agricultural subsidies provided by EU
31-35Views:85The greatest part of the incomes (nearly fifty percent) of the European Union is spend on the agriculture and the agricultural policy is the most complex field among the common policies. In Hungary the payments from Guarantee Section of EAGGF are carried out by one Paying Agency (Agricultural and Rural Development Agency), the post audit of payments are carried out by Investigation Network of Hungarian Customs and Finance Guard on the base of Council Regulation No. 4045/89. A full co-operation of the business operators is expected during the audit, which means the presentation of the complete accounting file related to subsidies. To avoid declarations on irregularities during the audit and the following order on repayment of the subsidy, all requirements of gaining subsidies have to be kept. The state authorities, in present case the customs authority should pay special attention to the risk analysis activity, and its harmonising with the proposals and guidelines of the Commission. Getting acquainted and using in practice the actual requirements and proposals of the Commission’s guidelines is expected at all levels of the control service of the HCFG, but primarily the Special Service has to continue its present practice in this field. The measures mentioned above, respectively the effective period taken under analysis teens from the date of accession until June 2005.
-
Survival Analysis of Hungarian Large White, Duroc and Pietrain Sows
31-36Views:228The aim of the present study was to perform lifetime performance analysis in three pig breeds; Hungarian Large White (n=295), Duroc (n=76) and Pietrain (n=91) on a commercial farm using analysis of survival sows. We took into consideration the age of sows at the time of their inclusion into breeding, their age at the time of culling, time spent in production, number of mating and parities, parity percentage, intervals between litters, number and mean of piglets born alive and born dead, number of raised piglet litters, number and mean of 21 days old piglets, the weight and mean of raised litter and raise percentage.
We carried out the analysis by SPSS 22.0. Single factor analysis of variants, Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox PH model were used. The determination of the significance of risk rates differences was done by Wald chi square test.
Our results showed that the average culling age were 1056 (±33.52) days for the Hungarian Large White, 735 (±73.56) days for Duroc and 818 (±71.98) days for the Pietrain.
The log rank test of the survival analysis indicated a significant difference between the three tested genotypes (χ2=16.981, P<0.001), which means that the survival percentage of the individual breeds varied significantly from one another. In comparison with the Hungarian Large White genotype the Duroc genotype has a 1.6 times higher (P<0.001) culling risk while that of the genotype Pietrain was 1.36 times higher (P<0.001).
Our results can be used to compare the breeds kept under the same conditions and to compare the life span of one genotype under different farming conditions. Factors that increase survival and improve the profitability of pig farming can be determined by this method.
-
New approach in soil tillage – bases of the precision crop production
123-127Views:99A new approach is needed in soil tillage practice. The important achievements of this are the recognition of the risk – poor tillage practices, poor soil quality, soil state defects, and climate extremes etc. – the need for the development of risk reduction, prevention, remediation and maintenance of the favorable soil state. In this paper 13 main soil state defects are listed, to which the prevention and improving tasks are also commented. In the second part of the paper the most important soil tillage tasks are summarized in 30 sections and realization of these points may promote the implementation of precision plant production.
-
The Importance of Environmental Research of the Great Hungarian Plain
9-16Views:64The research of the Great Hungarian Plain has been going on for a long time and there are a lot of information could be used by environmental protection too. The connection between the two topics are diversified, that is why it is necessary to choose a few subject to explain. The chosen subjects are:
The protection of the geological media cannot be solved, either practically and legally, with the protection of the separated elements of that, just if we see it as a system.
The prevention, which is the most effective (and also the most inexpensive) way of environmental protection, can be supported by the compilation of vulnerability- and risk maps (i.e. risk of inland water, erosion vulnerability, deflation vulnerability, contamination sensibility).
Survey on the environmental state containing indispensable geological information for the optimal land use and country planning of a region, county or settlement.
Marking out of the possible areas for waste depositing. -
Survey of the chance of secondary salinization in the hobby gardens around Karcag
199-205Views:89Irrigation involves the risk of secondary salinization on certain areas. The increase of the level of salty groundwater or the application
of poor quality (salty) irrigation water can cause secondary salinization. Irrigation from drilled wells is very characteristic in the small
hobby gardens located around Karcag during the frequently droughty summers. Mainly vegetables and fruits with high water demand are
grown in these gardens, hence quite a large amount of subsurface waters are used for irrigation. Water samples were taken from 46 drilled
wells located in the hobby gardens around the town of Karcag and analysed in order to survey the risk of secondary salinization. On the
base of the results of the analyses and some indexes calculated from the chemical parameters of the irrigation waters, it can be established
that none of the investigated wells supply water that is suitable for irrigation without improvement. -
Chemical residue coming forward in an end product in winery technology
81-86Views:65Although many tasks wait for me yet in the course of my research work, I’ve managed to book successes with a certain degree.
On the one part as a producer I regard it as a positive result, that in the capital end product manufactured by me, - that is the wine - , has no chemical residue in it, and in the rest of the intermediary products has measure dwindling only.
On the other hand, that I hit home in cases demonstrable agent residual one in the must, wine, lees, the tendency indicates it, that in the course of the processing (distillation) or the storage they partly, or whole decay (Table 4. and Figure 3.) and a food safety risk is not caused.
But it’s a question for the future, that the more considerable quantity manifested in the grape pip does or not cause a problem in the course of its use with a cosmetic aim, concerned, that the reason of the agent wandering experienced in the other products is the relative density, or possibly the result of some kind of bond.
So I go on with my research and my aim is to gove the most exact answers for those questions, above. -
Risk effects of the spread route of mycotoxins
90-95Views:89In Hungary the mycotoxin is a great problem, because there are many natural toxins in wheat and maize. These cereals can be found on
considerable proportion of the country’s sowing area, and they are deterministic food for the population. The direct human and animal
utilization of the contaminated cereals mean a serious risk in the food chain. In Hungary’s climate the soil is contaminated with pathogen
moulds, particularly Fusarium species, which increase by respective temperature and moisture content in cereals. The Fusarium can
decrease the quality of the wheat in different ways: decrease the germination capability and cause visible discoloration and appearance of
mould, reduces the dry material and nutrient content of the grain. From the toxins produced by the Fusarium genus, the trichotecene (T-2,
HT-2, deoxinivalenol, nivalenol, diacetoxyscxirpenol, Fusarenon-X) and the estrogenic zearalenon (F-2) are the most common in Hungary.
The fumonisins (FB1, FB2, FB3) first identified in 1988, relatively newly discovered, are also important. Major proportion of mycotoxins in a
healthy organization is metabolized by the enzyme system of liver and intestinal bacteria. The toxicity is reduced or even leaves off.
However, more toxic and biologically active compounds can be formed. For the reduction of mycotoxin-contamination several possibilities
are available in the case of storage, processing and feeding. -
Assessment of Environmental Susceptibility/Vulnerability of Soils
62-74Views:84Soils represent a considerable part of the natural resources of Hungary. Consequently, rational land use and proper soil management – to guarantee normal soil functions – are important elements of sustainable (agricultural) development, having special importance both in the national economy and in environment protection.
The main soil functions in the biosphere are as follows: conditionally renewable natural resource; reactor, transformer and integrator of the combined influences of other natural resources (solar radiation, atmosphere, surface and subsurface waters, biological resources), place of „sphere-interactions”; medium for biomass production, primary food-source of the biosphere; storage of heat, water and plant nutrients; natural filter and detoxication system, which may prevent the deeper geological formations and the subsurface waters from various pollutants; high capacity buffer medium, which may prevent or moderate the unfavourable consequences of various environmental stresses; significant gene-reservoir, an important element of biodiversity.
Society utilizes these functions in different ways (rate, method, efficiency) throughout history, depending on the given natural conditions and socio-economic circumstances. In many cases the character of the particular functions was not properly taken into consideration during the utilization of soil resources, and the misguided management resulted in their over-exploitation, decreasing efficiency of one or more soil functions, and – over a certain limit – serious environmental deterioration.
Soil resources are threatened by the following environmental stresses:
– soil degradation processes;
– extreme moisture regime;
– nutrient stresses (deficiency or toxicity);
– environmental pollution.
Environmental stresses caused by natural factors or human activities represent an increasing ecological threat to the biosphere, as well as a socio-economic risk for sustainable development, including rational land use and soil management.
The stresses are caused by the integrated impacts of various soil properties, which are the results of soil processes (mass and energy regimes, abiotic and biotic transport and transformation and their interactions) under the combined influences of soil forming factors. Consequently, the control of soil processes is a great challenge and the main task of soil science and soil management in sustainable development.
The efficient control of these processes necessitates the following consecutive steps:
• registration of facts and consequences (information on land and soil characteristics, land use, cropping pattern, applied agrotechnics, yields, with their spatial and temporal variability);
• evaluation of potential reasons (definition and quantification of soil processes, analysis of influencing factors and their mechanisms);
• assessment of the theoretical, real, rational and economic possibilities for the control of soil processes (including their risk-assessment and impact analysis);
• elaboration of efficient technologies for the „best” control alternatives (best management practice).
Scientifically based planning and implementation of sustainable land use and rational soil management to ensure desirable soil functions, without any undesirable environmental side-effects, require adequate soil information. In the last years such data were organized into a computer-based GIS soil database in Hungary, giving opportunities for the quantification, analysis, modelling and forecasting of the studied environmental stresses and for the efficient and scientifically based prevention, elimination or reduction of environmental stresses and their unfavourable ecological and economical consequences.
Special attention was paid to the assessment of various soil degradation processes, as: (1) soil erosion by water or wind; (2) soil acidification; (3) salinization and/or alkalization; (4) physical degradation (structure destruction, compaction); (5) extreme moisture regime: drought sensitivity and waterlogging hazard; (6) biological degradation; (7) unfavourable changes in the plant nutrient regime; (8) decrease of natural buffering capacity, (9) soil (and water) pollution.
The actions against undesirable environmental stresses and their unfavourable consequences are important elements of sustainable, efficient, economically viable, socially acceptable and environmentally sound crop production and agricultural development. These are joint tasks of the state, decision makers on various levels, the land owners, the land users and – to a certain extent – of each member of the society. -
The bioactive compounds of sour cherry (Prunus cerasus) with special regards to antioxidant activity and antioxidant density
83-87Views:165Evidence suggests that a diet high in fruits and vegetables may reduce the risk of chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and cancer, and phytochemicals including phenolics, flavonoids and carotenoids from fruits and vegetables may play a key role in reducing chronic disease risk. Recent research has proven that sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L.) is a valuable natural source of some bioactive compounds important in human health preservation.
In our work, we identified the total antioxidant capacity and ”antioxidant density” of sour cherry varieties named ”Újfehértói fürtös”, ”Debreceni bõtermõ”, ”Kántorjánosi” and ”Érdi bõtermõ” and those of the ”Bosnyák” sour cherry clones. ”Antioxidant density” is a biological value indicator obtained in a synthetic way, which indicates the antioxidant capacity of the particular food, e. g. fruit and vegetable, per 1 Calorie. -
Investigation of the effect of allithiamine-enriched feed on the poultry gut microbiome composition and resistome
149-155Views:66Over the past 20–25 years, the poultry industry has evolved into a specific protein production system. However, the stress resulting from intensive rearing practices has led to numerous negative consequences, making the optimisation of livestock gut microbiome composition crucial for mitigating these effects. Advancements in modern molecular biology methods have brought attention to the impacts of nutrients on gut microbiota. In our study, we extensively investigated the changes induced by feed formulations rich in phytonutrients on the gastrointestinal microbiota of livestock using targeted 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing. Our objective is to examine how the developed feed prototype affects the composition of core microbiomes in raised poultry, community diversity, and the resilience of complex microbial networks. We seek correlations between biological livestock and environmental samples to identify which community constituents, in what proportions and occurrences, may play a role in the development of specific diseases. Based on our measurement results, it can be asserted that allithiamine positively modulated "beneficial" community constituents. Beyond the impact of allithiamine-enriched feed rich in phytonutrients, the composition of the microbial community in the poultry gastrointestinal tract is significantly influenced by the age of the birds. Furthermore, due to the presence of multi-drug-resistant pathogens in environmental samples from livestock facilities, appropriate transmission risk management measures are of paramount importance.
-
Comparative Study of Dutch and Hungarian Environmentally-friendly Apple Orchards on Potential Ascospore Dose of Apple Scab
31-36Views:85In a 2-year study, Dutch and Hungarian environmentally-friendly apple orchards were compared as regards the amount of apple scab primary inoculum. The PAD (potential ascospore dose) method was used to quantify the potential amount of primary inoculum (ascospores) per m2 orchard floor. Applying this method, the number of lesions per m2 of leaf in the autumn (LD), the proportion of the orchard floor covered by leaf litter at bud break (LLD) and potential ascospore dose (PAD) were determined. In autumn, LD values ranged between 2.2 and 13.5 in the integrated orchards, while in the organic orchards the values were between 42.5 and 106.2, with especially high values in the Dutch organic orchard. LLD values ranged between 24 and 43% at bud break in both countries. PAD values were 10-60 times higher than those of the integrated orchards. The PAD values were between 673 and 4275 ascospore/m2 orchard floor in the integrated orchards, while in the organic orchards these values were 37102 and 52390 ascospore/m2 orchard floor, respectively. On the basis of the recorded primary inoculum quantity, the Dutch integrated apple orchard is considered to be excellently protected, while the Hungarian orchard has a medium level of protection. However, both countries’ organic orchards can be regarded overall as being very poorly protected. Accordingly, in the integrated orchards the predicted epidemic risk is low or medium, while in the organic orchards it is very high on the basis of PAD values.