The total fertility rate has been declining sharply in Hungary since the democratic transition. Moreover, the rate has been well below the replacement level since the second half of the 1980’s. It is therefore relevant to investigate the underlying factors behind the permanently low level and continuously declining trend in the rate. In this article, based on Walker (1995), I present the time series of the shadow price of childbearing in Hungary, with which I estimate the total cost incurred by the first-born child, using empirical data. I introduce the connection between the total fertility rate and the increasing mean age at birth. Subsequently, I first compare the tempo and parity-adjusted total fertility rate to the shadow price of childbearing, and then conduct a partial analysis. Based on the results, I recommend measures for public decision-makers that could positively incentivize childbearing

Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kódok: J11, J13