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• The Concept of Innovative Fiscal Policy: Theory and Empirical Evidence

  Oliver Kovacs

  Views:

  146

  This contribution addresses the question of what are the main constituents of an innovative fiscal policy in the context of sustainability. We apply the concept of sustaining and disruptive innovation to fiscal policy. On the one hand, innovative fiscal policy is able to be sustaining whereby public finance will incrementally improve without leaving its decisive structure. On the other hand, innovative fiscal policy should be disruptive as well in the context of long term sustainability, whereby the structure of public finances can be profoundly restructured as a reaction to future challenges. By using the Finnish recovery in the early 1990s, we can refine our argument about the use and necessity of the mixture of fiscal rules and independent institutions in favour of fiscal sustainability. We also shed light on the key sources of the expansionary consolidation that emerged in the aftermath of the fiscal adjustment in the early 1990s. We emphasise that innovative fiscal policy with a mixture of legislated fiscal rules and independent fiscal anchor is more likely to be associated with sustainability if the economy has weaker growth potential which does not provide enough social trust towards the consolidation efforts of the government.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E61, E62, Q01

• The Risks of Global Financial Markets and the Importance of Credibility: Implications for Hungarian Fiscal Policy

  27-44

  Dora Gyorffy

  Views:

  105

  The central issue in the controversy about the adoption of the euro in Hungary is the difficulties associated with the fulfillment of the fiscal criterion and the possible growth sacrifice it requires. In this paper the author examines the question whether the strategy of delaying entry into the euro-zone implies that fiscal consolidation can be delayed as well. In approaching the problem the paper considers the origins and history of the present-day global financial markets and argues that given the high degree of systemic risks individual countries face responsible macroeconomic policies are crucial in minimizing vulnerability to
  crises. Consequently in order to avoid excessive interest rates and speculative inflows (or currency crisis in the worst case scenario) fiscal deficits in Hungary would have to be cut and credibility of fiscal policy reestablished even without EMU accession. The overall conclusion from this overview is that delaying entry in order to delay fiscal adjustment is likely to increase the trade off between real and nominal convergence instead of mitigating it.

  JEL classification: F33, F41, H62

• Analysis of Fiscal Policy in the Countries of the PaCifiCa

  109-126

  Andrea Postenyi

  Views:

  132

  Volatility has been a main factor in Latin America for decades, but these countries have managed to eliminate it more or less successfully by a series of reforms over the last few decades. Regional integrations have emerged in response to the challenges of globalisation. The most recently created integration is the PaCifiCa, and it is worth analyzing the current fiscal situation of its member states, which largely determines the success of future cooperation. Although the four countries observed managed to survive the 2007-2009 crisis with stable fundamentals, the downturn drew attention to the differences between these countries: while Chile and Peru are able to react easily to cyclical swings by applying countercyclical policy, the economies of Colombia and Mexico are much more vulnerable. The assessment of the welfare systems shows that although Chile has an extensive welfare system, the countries in the region still significantly lag behind the traditional concept of welfare state.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) code: H50, H60

• Is growth sustainable without rules-based policy?

  Laszlo Csaba

  Views:

  117

  The article examines conditions for rules-based fiscal policy in the European Union and discusses the consequences of softening up the Stability and Growth Pact by the March 2005 Council. It surveys arguments in favor of rules-based policy and proves that most of the arguments in favor of softening up the Pact, as well as the concrete steps of modification do not contribute to lasting and improved fiscal solidity in the euro area, but follow opportunistic political considerations of the big member states. It shows why the modifications make the life of the new entrants more difficult and allow for lax fiscal policies and secular slowdown of growth.

• Financial Crisis, Economic Policy and Economics

  19-34

  Jozsef Moczar

  Views:

  144

  Concerning the financial crisis in 2007-2009 many politicians and economists, in addition
  to representatives of other disciplines have asked: why could it not have been avoided,
  why could it not have been forecast? The present paper provides a new answer to these
  questions. The main argument is that empirical economic policy reached a deadlock when
  economists acknowledged the equilibrium models based on efficient market theory. The
  static equilibrium paradigm which appeared in the middle of last century has strongly
  prevailed to the present day, leaving aside Kornai’s (1971) or Benassy’s (1982) or Goodwin’s
  (1991) warnings. Since the economy is never in equilibrium the simultaneous equations
  describing it may not provide any guide for politicians; what they should do and how they
  should do it in a time of economic crisis. The present author’s newest book (Móczár, 2008),
  besides the dynamic equilibrium, also sketches a new paradigm, i.e., non equilibrium
  modelling, instead of the orthodox equilibrium paradigm, which allows us to treat bubbles,
  to regulate money markets etc. Its necessity is outlined here.

  JEL classification: E00, E5, E6, G28 

• A német transzferrendszer mint a gazdasági visszaesés okozója

  Agnes Orosz

  Views:

  184

  According to the theory of optimal currency areas the most important advantage of monetary integration is its positive effect on economic growth. However, examining Germany we can notice that since German reunification economic growth and the convergence between East and West Germany has slowed down. These facts show that the operation of the German currency union is not optimal and its performance has not improved over the last twenty years. The criteria of the optimal currency area theory is endogenous due to the recent development of the theory. This means that a country is more likely to satisfy the criteria for entry into a curreny union ex post than ex ante. In the case of Germany, examining the trends of economic growth we can conclude the the German currency union has not become optimal in the last two decades. These facts raise the puzzling question of what are the specific circumstances hindering the improvement if Germany's monetary union despite the endogeneity of the optimal currency area criteria. To answer this question the study examines the interactions between monetary and political integration with special attention to the issues of fiscal policy. According to the study the German transfer system and the dependency on transfers explain the discrepancy between theory and empirics.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E42, E62, E63, F01, F31, F36

• Challenges ahead for the European Union

  7-12

  Alexandre Lamfalussy

  Views:

  124

  It is a mild understatement that nowadays the EU is navigating in rough waters. Close to half of the member countries of the Euro area are in breach of their fiscal stability commitment – and some of them very substantially. Quite a few heads of government publicly criticise the ECB’s monetary policy. Germany and France are determined to water down the Bolkenstein directive on the implementation of a genuine single market for services (which amount to about two-thirds of the EU’s GDP), to which, incidentally, no major objections had been raised by the governments of the member states during the drafting stage. There is no agreement on the longer term EU budget. Only Ireland, the UK and Sweden accept the free movement of the residents of the ten countries which became members of the EU in May last year.