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• The joining negotiations in rapport with the EMU

  75-87

  Laszlo Jankovics

  Views:

  133

  The study surveys the field that deals with the Eastward expansion of the European Economic and Monetary Union /EMU/ after the joining negotiations, involving the probable legal, political and economic dilemmas and problems of the introduction of euro in Hungary. The joining contract and the relevant documents unambiguosly outlining the items within the monetary integration for the Hungarian economy can be planned. It also examines the chosen monetary integration for the Hungarian economy can be planned. It also examines the chosen monetary-political systems of the candidate for membership countries from the relevant European regulation point of view, just as the possibility of individual solutions.

• The timing of the EMU accession

  45-62

  Laszlo Jankovics

  Views:

  262

  Following the Eu-accession the next major challenge is the preparation for and finally the introduction of the single currency for the Central Eastern European countries. In this paper, I analyze the legal, economic and political factors regarding the preparedness of the whole region, with special emphasis on Hungary. After taking the pros and cons of the official "as soon as possible" strategy into consideration, we can conclude that there is no convincing case for further postponing eurozone entry. Additionally, putting off the date indefinitely or ambiguously could result in growing economic uncertainty and dangerous financial instability. In the case of Hungary, it is very likely that the country would suffer serious loss of reputation and credibility were it to put off the target date a second time, i.e. beyond 2010. Lack of strong political commitment could unfortunately easily lead to a postponement of the adaption of the single currency. The potential implication might well be debated, but no doubt would be serious in terms of reputation and economic development.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E42, E58, F33 

• The Monetary Union and the policitcal unification in Europe

  96-104

  László Jankovics

  Views:

  136

  The article deals with the European Economic and Monetary Union's connection with politics. The author examines how the Monetary Union came to be with the help of the traditional integration theories and also what answers can be gained from them on the question of politically unification. He shows how the Werner-plan, mentioned as the forerunner of the EMU, helped in forming the Union in the light of the theory of optimal currency areas. He points at the problem around European fiscal federalism. In order to elevate the mostly underrated economic powers, he uses the Mundell-Fleming model to illustrate the economic relations behind the Union, which, to some extent, stand in contrast with the way of behaviour driving back to political thinking.

• The Risks of Global Financial Markets and the Importance of Credibility: Implications for Hungarian Fiscal Policy

  27-44

  Dora Gyorffy

  Views:

  105

  The central issue in the controversy about the adoption of the euro in Hungary is the difficulties associated with the fulfillment of the fiscal criterion and the possible growth sacrifice it requires. In this paper the author examines the question whether the strategy of delaying entry into the euro-zone implies that fiscal consolidation can be delayed as well. In approaching the problem the paper considers the origins and history of the present-day global financial markets and argues that given the high degree of systemic risks individual countries face responsible macroeconomic policies are crucial in minimizing vulnerability to
  crises. Consequently in order to avoid excessive interest rates and speculative inflows (or currency crisis in the worst case scenario) fiscal deficits in Hungary would have to be cut and credibility of fiscal policy reestablished even without EMU accession. The overall conclusion from this overview is that delaying entry in order to delay fiscal adjustment is likely to increase the trade off between real and nominal convergence instead of mitigating it.

  JEL classification: F33, F41, H62

• Roadmap for the adoption of the euro in Hungary: dangers and opportunities

  Laszlo Jankovics

  Views:

  173

  In April 2003, the EU Accession Agreement was officially signed for the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic. These countries are destined to become EU members in May 2004. As part of the “acquis communautaire”, participation in the new version of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II), and subsequently in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is obligatory for all new EU members (no opt-out clause is available). Therefore, the question today for the accession countries is no longer whether or not to enter the eurozone but rather the time horizon when the entry should happen.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) code: E42, E58, F33.

• Néhány szó a szabályrendszer által korlátozott fiskális politikáról

  131-152

  Kitti Vass

  Views:

  109

  Magyarországon, 2005 őszén ismét – immár menetrendszerűen – a költségvetés tervezése kapcsán viták zajlottak. Az Európai Unió tagjaként ráadásul új elemmel is bővült a disputa, előtérbe került az EMU tagsághoz szükséges deficitkorlátozás problematikája, és a lehetséges csatlakozási időpontok meghatározásával kapcsolatban is jelentős véleménykülönbségek alakultak ki. Vajon más országokban is hasonlóképpen alakul a költségvetés elfogadásának eljárása? Az államháztartási többlet csupán a tankönyvekből ismert utópia? E kérdések megválaszolásához a fiskális politika, a fiskális korlátozások és azok szükségességének kérdéskörét tárgyalom a közgazdaságtan fejlődéstörténetébe helyezve, majd az Európai Monetáris Unió és a feltörekvő gazdaságok fiskális politikáját elemzem. A tanulmány befejező részében empirikus kutatásaimról adok számot, melynek kapcsán bemutatom és megvizsgálom néhány EU-tagország egymástól eltérő fiskális teljesítményét az elmúlt 15 évben. Az elemzés nyomán kapott eltérő eredmények egyik magyarázatául az szolgálhat, hogy a fenntarthatóan kiegyensúlyozott államháztartás szükségességére vonatkozóan tett közgazdasági felismerés és a szabályrendszer megléte nem
  elégséges a fenntarthatóan kiegyensúlyozott államháztartás biztosításához. A nevezett tényezőkön túl politikai akarat és megfelelő intézményrendszer is szükséges azok megvalósításához, miközben a gazdaságpolitikának elegendő mozgástere marad saját preferenciarendszerének megvalósítására.