In Hungary the mycotoxin is a great problem, because there are many natural toxins in wheat and maize. These cereals can be found on
considerable proportion of the country’s sowing area, and they are deterministic food for the population. The direct human and animal
utilization of the contaminated cereals mean a serious risk in the food
moulds, particularly Fusarium species, which increase by respective temperature and moisture content in cereals. The Fusarium can
decrease the quality of the wheat in different ways: decrease the germination capability and cause visible discoloration and appearance of
mould, reduces the dry material and nutrient content of the grain. From the toxins produced by the Fusarium genus, the trichotecene (T-2,
HT-2, deoxinivalenol, nivalenol, diacetoxyscxirpenol, Fusarenon-X) and the estrogenic zearalenon (F-2) are the most common in Hungary.
The fumonisins (FB1, FB2, FB3) first identified in 1988, relatively newly discovered, are also important. Major proportion of mycotoxins in a
healthy organization is metabolized by the enzyme system of liver and intestinal bacteria. The toxicity is reduced or even leaves off.
However, more toxic and biologically active compounds can be formed. For the reduction of mycotoxin-contamination several possibilities
are available in the case of storage, processing and feeding.
The valuation of company is very important because provides information about the current value/situation of company, and through this, provide the opportunity of choosing the best company’s growth alternatives. The future strategic decisions are characterized by lack of knowledge, information, so all measures of company’s growth are closel...y linked with uncertainty and risk. The company’s valuation process is also related with uncertainty and risk. The risk may result both from the assessed assets and the technique used. In literature, we could find three approaches for risk management: capital budgeting based method, methods based on portfolio analysis and real options approach of risk management. Among them, the real options based methods is the most revolutionary approach for risk management. The advantages of the method, consists in the fact, that the process of establishing strategic decisions integrates the possibility of reversibility, delay and rejections, which isn’t it possible at two previous methods. The method also takes into account the total risk of company, so both the company-specific and systematic risk. In this study, I have used one of the best-known real option based method, the Black-Scholes model, for determining the option’s value. Determination of option value is based on the data of enterprise, which was tested Monte Carlo simulation. One of the basic assumptions of the Black-Scholes model is that the value of option is influenced by several factors. The sensitivity of option’s value could be carried out with so-called “Greeks”.. In the study the sensitivity analysis, was carried out with indicators Delta (Δ), Gamma (Γ) and Vega (ν). The real options based risk management determinations were performed in the R-statistics software system, and the used modules are 'fPortofio' and 'mc2d'. By using of real options method, I have calculated the average value of company capital equal with 38.79 million. By using simulation was carried out 1000 runs. The results of this show a relatively low standard deviation, small interquartile range and normal distribution. In the calculation of indicator Delta, could be concluded the value of company moves in 0.831 proportion to the price of options, the standard deviations of index is low, so the real option based method could be used with success in company’s value estimation. The Gamma index shows the enterprise value is sensitive just for large changes. The result of Vega reflects the value of option, so the company’s value volatility, which is small in this case, but this means a volatility of value. In summary, we can conclude that the call options pricing model, well suited for the determination of company’s value.
The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the risk attitudes of Hungarian sheep producers regarding the changes they have had to go through since the political changes of 1989-1990. Moreover, the objective of this study is to strengthen the empirical basis for risk analysis by identifying the importance of farmers’ risk attitudes. The r...esults of a nationwide survey of over 500 sheep farmers presented a framework of risk attitudes, risk sources and applied risk management techniques of livestock producers.
Soils represent a considerable part of the natural resources of Hungary. Consequently, rational land use and proper soil management – to guarantee normal soil functions – are important elements of sustainable (agricultural) development, having special importance both in the national economy and in environment protection.
The main soil fu
Society utilizes these functions in different ways (rate, method, efficiency) throughout history, depending on the given natural conditions and socio-economic circumstances. In many cases the character of the particular functions was not properly taken into consideration during the utilization of soil resources, and the misguided management resulted in their over-exploitation, decreasing efficiency of one or more soil functions, and – over a certain limit – serious environmental deterioration.
Soil resources are threatened by the following environmental stresses:
– soil degradation processes;
– extreme moisture regime;
– nutrient stresses (deficiency or toxicity);
– environmental pollution.
Environmental stresses caused by natural factors or human activities represent an increasing ecological threat to the biosphere, as well as a socio-economic risk for sustainable development, including rational land use and soil management.
The stresses are caused by the integrated impacts of various soil properties, which are the results of soil processes (mass and energy regimes, abiotic and biotic transport and transformation and their interactions) under the combined influences of soil forming factors. Consequently, the control of soil processes is a great challenge and the main task of soil science and soil management in sustainable development.
The efficient control of these processes necessitates the following consecutive steps:
• registration of facts and consequences (information on land and soil characteristics, land use, cropping pattern, applied agrotechnics, yields, with their spatial and temporal variability);
• evaluation of potential reasons (definition and quantification of soil processes, analysis of influencing factors and their mechanisms);
• assessment of the theoretical, real, rational and economic possibilities for the control of soil processes (including their risk-assessment and impact analysis);
• elaboration of efficient technologies for the „best” control alternatives (best management practice).
Scientifically based planning and implementation of sustainable land use and rational soil management to ensure desirable soil functions, without any undesirable environmental side-effects, require adequate soil information. In the last years such data were organized into a computer-based GIS soil database in Hungary, giving opportunities for the quantification, analysis, modelling and forecasting of the studied environmental stresses and for the efficient and scientifically based prevention, elimination or reduction of environmental stresses and their unfavourable ecological and economical consequences.
Special attention was paid to the assessment of various soil degradation processes, as: (1) soil erosion by water or wind; (2) soil acidification; (3) salinization and/or alkalization; (4) physical degradation (structure destruction, compaction); (5) extreme moisture regime: drought sensitivity and waterlogging hazard; (6) biological degradation; (7) unfavourable changes in the plant nutrient regime; (8) decrease of natural buffering capacity, (9) soil (and water) pollution.
The actions against undesirable environmental stresses and their unfavourable consequences are important elements of sustainable, efficient, economically viable, socially acceptable and environmentally sound crop production and agricultural development. These are joint tasks of the state, decision makers on various levels, the land owners, the land users and – to a certain extent – of each member of the society.
The environmental factors to which surplus water can be assigned (topography, soil, groundwater, vegetation etc.) can be subject to special analysis and the randomness of the occurrences can be limited. The results of these procedures are surplus water risk maps of the areas, which can be utilised in land use planning. The risk map of the resea...rch site was created with overlaying digital category maps of the determining factors (hydraulic conductivity, convexity, critical probability of ground water level and land use).
Management and decision-support of today’s businesses require design and application of management reports based and high-end controlling systems. One of the main source of information for controlling systems is financial accounting that should be designed to support planning, controlling and monitoring systems. Financial and accounting infor...mation is essential for decision making support of organizations. Therefore
eligible assurance is needed that these information are true and fair. Internal and external financial audits as assurance qualifiers are linking to the controlling systems through assurance. Weaknesses of and threats to controlling systems shall be recovered and communicated to the management during qualifying process. Recovering of threats should be based on risk analysis, assessment. In this study I would like to present some methods and tools of risk assessment of financial reports, statements and a way on they can be further developed.
The greataest risk tograin production is fluctuation in market prices, which is over 50% over the course of a year; and year by year, as well. There are real market circumstances in the grain market, instead of state guaranteed fix prices, which was the norm under the former political system.
According to the general opinion of producers, lo
Hungary has a futures market (which is organized according to the CBOT system) in the grain sector, which is an unique institute in Europe. This organisation is suitable for hedge businesses and it has convenient technical and institutional background.
There are two possibilities to make hedge business. One of them is the short hedge with futures contract when the producer sells his product for long term if an acceptable profit is included in market price. In this case seller can protect himself against low market prices.
This technique can be considered as professional for price risk management, but possibly has financial cost because of the weak financial situation of Hungarian producers this solution seems expensive for them.
There is an other possibility in the Commodity Exchange for manage price risk, that is the option technique. This solution is suitable for insure prices as well, and has an other additional advantage, namely: there is no financial costs in this case.
Age at first breeding and lifetime reproductive performance was analyzed on 17,558 F1 Landrace x Yorkshire gilts from 9 piglet producing herds of Midwest, United States entered in herds between 1st Jan 2014 and 31st July 2016. At the time of data collection Dec 2018, 15% of the sows were still active in the herds hence exc...luded from the analysis. Individual gilt data included date of birth, age in days at first mating, piglet total born by parity, lifetime piglet total born and reason for culling. Quality data checks were done before analysis to eliminate all outlier values together with sows that had no entry information for any listed category. The total database of the sows was classified into 6 classes according to age at the first mating in days 170-190(n=754), 191-211(n=4683), 212-232(n=7123), 233-253(n=3385), 254-274(n=1002) and 275-369 (n=611). Piglet total born obtained from each sow during the lifetime production was significantly (P < 0.05) greater for gilts bred between 233-253 days of age at first mating. Gilts that were bred at <233 days appeared to have a higher risk of removal by farrowing productivity as compared to the other groups. However, the results show that the risk of being culled due to health problems and conformation issues increases as the age at first mating is delayed. Overall reproductive failure appears to be the most economical culling reason across all age groups. There is a need to evaluate the best management decisions for gilt initiation in a herd to maximize her lifetime performance. The results indicate that gilts mated for the first time at the right age, 233–253 days, are more productive, both in lifetime total born and have a minimal risk of culling due to farrowing productivity.
Two main channels have been identified to be responsible for microbiological contamination of raw milk and milk products. Firstly, contamination has occurred due to udder infection from the cow or the blood which harbours most bacteria that come in contact with the raw milk. Secondly, via external factors (may include faeces, skin, contaminated... water, environment etc.) which are associated with the operation of milking. There is direct contact with the milk and/or surfaces before, during or after the milking, posing public health risk and economic decline. The aim of this study was to examine the bacteriological quality of bulk tank raw milk samples collected from two different size dairy farms (Farm 1 and Farm 2) of different housing forms (cubicle loose and deep litter) in Hajdú-Bihar County, Hungary in July, 2017. Three samples were taken from each farm, and the total plate count, coliform count, Escherichia coli count, Staphylococcus aureus count, and yeast and mould count were determined in them.
The results clearly showed low level of all measured bacteria group load in Farm 1 samples in comparison to Farm 2 with the exception of coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CNS) which represented high level in general, indicating significant difference (P<0.05). The mean value of total plate count in Farm 2 samples was higher (1.0 × 105 CFU/mL) than Farm 1 samples (2.8 × 104 CFU/mL). There was a significant difference (P<0.05) in mean count of coliforms in raw milk samples between Farm 1 and Farm 2. Similarly, results of E. coli were significantly different (P<0.05) with mean count of 1.44 × 102 CFU/mL and 2.02 × 103 CFU/mL for Farm 1 and Farm 2 respectively.
Results of Staphylococcus aureus also showed significant difference (P<0.05) with mean count of 9.7 × 101 CFU/mL for Farm 1 and 6.28 × 102 CFU/mL for Farm 2. The mean of mould count recorded was 1.07 × 102 CFU/mL and 4.93 × 102 CFU/mL for Farm 1 and Farm 2 respectively. The recorded mean of yeast count was 1.68 × 103 CFU/mL and 3.41 × 103 CFU/mL for Farm 1 and Farm 2 respectively; however, both farms showed no significant difference (P>0.05) in terms of mean of mould and yeast count. Although Farm 2 produced six times lower milk quantity than Farm 1, the measured microbial parameters were high. Both farms’ microbiological numbers were higher above the permitted limit values as stated by Regulation (EC) No 853/2004, Hungarian Ministry of Health (MoH) 4/1998 (XI. 11.).
This could be an indication of non-conformance to effective GMP, ineffective pre–milking disinfection or udder preparation, poor handling and storage practice, time and temperature abuse and inadequate Food Safety Management System Implementation. Therefore, our recommendation is as follows; establish control measures for pre- and postharvest activities involved in the milking process which would be an effective approach to reduce contamination of the raw milk by pathogenic microorganisms from these farms, strict sanitation regime and hygiene protocol be employed and applied to cows, all equipment, contact surfaces and minimize handling of the milk prior, during and after milking. This will also serve as scientific information to the producers for continual improvement in their operations.
From a nutritional point of view, sheep milk is more valuable than cow and goat milk and the interest for sheep milk is increasing in many countries. However, sheep milk is easily contaminated during milking, handling, and transport and it is an ideal medium for bacterial propagation. Consequently, sheep milk spoils quite quickly. The proper, c...lean handling of milk is not only of sanitarian interest, but it also serves the farmers’ interests, because contaminated milk may not be distributed, and is unsuitable for producing good quality products. Following this technological trend, this review addresses the bacterial composition of sheep milk with and without mastitis. Even though sheep milk contains a lot of bacteria, this review article highlighted total plate count, Enterobacteriaceae, coliform, Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Campylobacter, Salmonella spp. and Streptococcus spp. Mastitis in sheep is a vital cause of mortality, reduction in milk production and early culling. The reported risk factors for mastitis in sheep were age, a case of mastitis, breed, husbandry systems, and location. The main priority should be implementation of programs to minimize human pathogenic bacteria and mastitis in raw ewe milk.
In the last 20–30 years lameness in cattle was found to be third the most influential disease next to mastitis and reproduction disorders. Studies have been established to explore reasons for lameness and prevention. The problem with more robust prevention plans is that knowledge and research evidence is not strong enough to run an effective...prevention plan. The aim of the research is to look for reasons of lameness by observing number of cows on 6 farms during 2 lactations. Performance data will be put together to body condition score (BCS) and lameness scores. Other examination is focused on monitoring of 40 farms. This part of the project is more related to extension, collecting and sharing solutions for decreasing lameness. Producers are advised what kind of measures are possible to reduce occurrence of lameness. Effectiveness of those actions will be measured at the end of the study. The first preliminary results show lack in almost all preventive measures needed to be taken in minimising lameness. Those areas are related to poor facilities, lack of straw, problems with labour and basic management.
Sow longevity plays an important role in economically efficient piglet production. Improving sow longevity results increase in the productivity and profitability of a sow herd. Longevity is a complex trait with many factors that can contribute to a sow having a long and productive life. Not only the sow’s genetics, but also nutrition, environ...ment and the management policies are important. In addition, the removal of non-productive sows along with the introduction of replacement gilts is an essential part of maintaining herd productivity at a constantly high level. The objective of this paper was to summarize the current knowledge about the sow longevity and lifetime performance values, as well as, discusses the survival analysis methods for sow longevity traits. This method can estimate the hazard rate indicating proportional risk of sows being culled at any given time, in addition, it is able to investigate the effects of different factors on longevity. Identifying factors that influence the longevity could assist many commercial pig producers in becoming more efficient.
In the last 20-30 years, lameness in cattle was found to be third the most influential disease next to mastitis and reproduction disorders. Studies have been established to explore reasons for lameness and prevention. The problem with more robust prevention plans is that knowledge and research evidence is not strong enough to run an effective p...revention plan. The aim of the research is to look for reasons of lameness by observing number of cows on 6 farms during 2 lactations. Performance data will be put together to body condition score (BCS) and lameness scores. Other examination is focused on monitoring of 40 farms. This part of the project is more related to extension, collecting and sharing solutions for decreasing lameness. Producers are advised what kind of measures are possible to reduce occurrence of lameness. Effectiveness of those actions will be measured at the end of the study. The first preliminary results show lack in almost all preventive measures needed to be taken in minimizing lameness. Those areas are related to poor facilities, lack of straw, problems with labor and basic management.
Extreme weather conditions are becoming more and more frequent in the crop years, thus increase the risk of sunflower production.
The objective of researches into plant production is to minimize these effects as much as possible. In this sense, the optimization of
agrotechnological factors is of high importance. Within these factors, the
and optimized, rational crop protection technologies are important, especially in the highly sensitive sunflower cultures. The effect of
sowing time, crop density, and fungicide treatments on the yield of sunflower hybrids was analysed in different crop years in 2008
and 2009. In each case, the infection was highest with the early sowing time and at the highest crop density level (65000 ha-1). When
one fungicide treatment was applied, the rate of infection decreased compared to the control treatment. The further decrease of the
infection rate was less after the second fungicide treatment.
In the humid year of 2008 the crop yield was the highest at 45000 ha-1 crop density level in the control treatment and at 55000 crop
ha-1 crop density level when fungicides were applied. In the draughty year of 2009 the maximum yield was gained at 55000 ha-1 crop
density level in the control treatment and at 65000 crop ha-1 when fungicides were applied. In 2008 and 2009 as regards the crop
yield, the difference between the optimal and minimal crop density levels was higher in the fungicide treatments than in the control
treatment (in 2008: control: 517 kg ha-1; one application of fungicides: 865 kg ha-1; two applications of fungicides: 842 kg ha-1), (in
2009: control: 577 kg ha-1; one application of fungicides: 761 kg ha-1; two applications of fungicides: 905 kg ha-1).
In each and every case, the first treatment with fungicides was more effective than the second. In 2008, the highest yield was
obtained with the third, late sowing time in each fungicide treatment. The differences between the crop yields with different sowing
times was less than in 2009, when the results of the second treatment exceeded those of the first and third treatment in each case.
In this paper the author summarized the definitions and operationalisations of the safety culture and safety climate concepts. He analyzed the Hungarian and international safety
management scientific literatures. He also analyzed the scientific definitions and summarised the common and different elements. The author emphasizes that the many
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In this study our aim was to find out if there is a difference between the genotypes determined for the previously identified mutations of seven genes of the Hungarian Large White in terms of the time spent in production. We identified the previously determined alleles of the seven genes (BF, EGF, ESR, FSHβ, H2AFZ, LEP, PRLR) related to prolif...eration that were and performed the survival analysis between breeds indicating the risk of culling and the time spent in production on the given farm. Based on the results of survival analysis by Log-rank test, Breslow (Generalized Wilcoxon) and Tarone-Ware test we concluded that they indicated a significant difference in case of the genes BF (Breslow and Tarone-Ware tests) the EGF (Log-rank and Tarone-Ware tests) and ESR (Log rank test) based on which the curves of the survival of the certain genes varied form one another significantly.
During our work, we developed a new, simple method to show the effects of fertilization on yield, which can both be applied over the long term as well as in series of independent experiments.
During the testing of this method, at the experimental farm of the Debrecen University Center for Agricultural Sciences at Látókép on a chernozem so
Four parameters are shown in the model. In the examined period TRmax represents the greatest yield in the fertilized treatments, NT the yield in unfertilized treatment, k the „efficiency of fertilizer” to NT and b the depression-coefficient, where the expected value is zero. The expected grain yield of the fertilized treatments (Y), in the function of the unfertilized grain yield (x) is the following:
The parameters were determined using the Monte Carlo method, in the optimizing process the sum of deviation square was minimized. The correct conformation of the functions was determined by the greatness of the R-value and the standard error. We found that during six years of testing, the tendency of fertilization efficiency was similar in the case of both hybrids. There was an unfavorable weather interval and, in these years, the yields were low, fertilization did not have an effect and moreover, in extremely bad conditions resulted in an obvious yield decrease. With the improvement of conditions, which in the case of our country means an increase in precipitation, the efficiency of fertilization increases and reaches its peak at 13-14 t/ha. At this point, the yield increasing effect of fertilization is 4-4,5 t/ha. If the yield of the unfertilized treatments increases from 8-9 t/ha, then the efficiency of the applied fertilizer decreases.
Most likely, the k and b parameters depend on the soil of the experimental location (nutrient and water management) and on the amount of pplied fertilizer and the characteristics of the hybrid. With the increase of fertilizer dosage the k-parameter also increases. The greater value though does not obviously mean a more favorable situation. It is true that in medium and good years this means great fertilizer efficiency, but in low or extreme precipitation conditions it also means greater risk. With the increase of the k-parameter, the yield deviation also increases which, from a cultivation point of view, is quite unfavorable. If the value of the b-parameter is other than, zero then the effect is clearly unfavorable, because with the increase of this value, the yield decrease is also greater. The fertilizer reaction of the two examined hybrids can be well characterized by these two hybrids.
Examining the six years, our created model estimated the effect of fertilization on the yield accurately and with a high degree of safety. Both in highly unfavorable and extremely good years, it gave an exact estimate. In our opinion, it can be used well to evaluate the effects of fertilization on yield in the future.
Since the ’90s professional football has been going through an unprecedented economic growth. The football ventures are becoming more and more middle-sized companies. In football there are organizational changes, which are reflected in changes of legal forms of professional football clubs, and in using of modern controlling, planning, risk an...d financial management. In this paper we primarily wish to show the specificities of legal forms in German professional football, because we believe the German model is the best example for the future development of football around the world, and we believe this would be most advantageous towards our future development at home.
The principal achievement of this paper is the combinative use of two market institutions: public warehousing and commodity exchange and how their joint application is beneficial for the players on the grain market. Based on a theoretical foundation, a calculation model was developed in order to assist short and long-term marketing decisions. I...t allows all the three participants of the market: producers, consumers and traders, to use this model in order to establish their own business strategy. The model can be used to analyse factors influencing the establishment of price; therefore, it can be also used for policy-making decisions.
Aim of our two-year study was to evaluate the possibilities of chemical use against key fungal pathogens (apple scab, apple powdery mildew and brown rot) in integrated and organic apple production. Therefore, first, disease incidence was compared in standard and reduced spray programmes and then each technological variation was evaluated from p...ractical point of view. Altogether four spray programmes were compared. Standard and reduced spray programmes were performed in the integrated production. The same pesticides were used in the reduced spray
programme compared to standard one but numbers of spray were reduced by 25% at the second half of the season. Standard and reduced spray programmes were also performed in the organic production and the numbers of spray were reduced by 40% in the reduced spray programme. Incidence of diseases was low in both standard and reduced spray programmes in integrated production. Diseases level was high in the organic production and disease increased significantly in the reduced spray programmes compared to standard programmes. Results showed that reduction in spray numbers at the second half of the season can be used practically in integrated production. Omission of sprays in organic
production resulted in serious disease management risk; therefore, it is not recommended for practical use.
In the domestic fish production, natural waters have yielded for several years about 7-8 thousand tons. This, from the point of view of outputs, considering the almost 130 thousand hectares of natural water, is rather low, it means approximately 55-60 kg/ha mixed fish.Although the various natural waters can differ significantly on the basis of...yields, yet on the majority of the territories, the results were low. In the case of our extensive still waters and rivers, the reason can undoubtedly be found in the combined effect of the lack of the possibility of reproduction of the fish stock and the over-fishing. Fishery built on planning supposes the best possible knowledge in the given circum stances of the parameters of the water area and its fishstock. Lacking this knowledge, it is not possible to establish the optimal use fulness of the resources, what is more, the management can make faulty decisions – as a result of a lack of information -, which can risk the success of later activities.
It is known that many factors have an impact on the success of the fishery, as well as some information in connection with the water area and the fish stock are necessary, the knowledge of which make it possible to manage the fishery in a planned way. One part of the information is available, while the other part is incomplete or not deep enough. The necessary data are dissimilar depending on their nature, can be obtained from different places, by different methods.
As the first step for executing the field surveys and processing data, I developed a complex model, which contains in a unified system the steps of estimating the fishstock. I made the sampling on the basis of this. Part of the model is a fish faunistic survey, as well as a morphological survey of the water area. The information gained from these are important for making more accurate the system of devices of the samplings for stock estimation (duration, number of net-rows) and for assigning its place (places representing the best way the physical characteristics of the given water area). The major stages of stock-survey: A) faunistic survey, B) physical survey of the bed, and C) sampling with the help of gill-nets. This is followed by the evaluation by the computer module.
The results of the research create a methodological and technical background for the fish faunistic and population biologic surveys still performed in different ways in our country, and by applying these methods together, all basic information about natural waters which help decision-making concerning fisheries can be obtaine deffectively.