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• Quantophrenia? – Some remarks on the possibilities and constraints of mathematical formalization in economic and social sciences

  5-18

  Istvan Musto

  Views:

  127

  This article deals with some aspects of the constraints to the formal mathematization of economic theories and models. It points out that complex, dynamic and open systems dispose of a memory so that past events, statements or beliefs, even if they have turned out to be wrong or untrue, exert a potentially significant influence on the present state of issues, so they cannot be completely substracted from models representing reality. Reference is also made to the fact that in such complex, evolutionary systems strong interdependences and interactions exist between the subject and the object of scientific inquiry since economic actors strongly influence each other and, consequently, aggregate reality through their mutual actions and expectations. Furthermore, it is argued that the comparability of findings is highly dependent on the identity or dissimilarity of the initial conditions of the objects of economic research. The article does not take a position either for or against mathematical modelling; it limits itself to comments on some of the conditions of meaningful formalization.

  JEL classification: A1, B10, B41, C10

• Examining the perception of innovative online banking services – a discrete choice experiment among university consumers

  64-91

  Vilmos Lakatos

  Péter Balogh

  Péter Czine

  Views:

  358

  In our study, we examine consumer preferences for innovative online banking services among students in business and management education. To achieve our research goal, we conducted a discrete choice experiment with the target group. The alternatives of our hypothetical decision situations included in our experiment were characterized by the possibility of ATM smartphone integration, the availability of real-time banking, the availability of NFC payment, and the cost per transaction. Based on our model estimates, we found that all three examined services (ATM smartphone integration, real-time banking, NFC payment) have a positive perception among respondents, while the increase in cost has a negative effect on the respondents’ sense of utility. The results of the latent class model estimated in order to address the preference heterogeneity highlighted the existence of a consumer group with very strong preferences and thus a high willingness to pay (average HUF 70) towards the existence of the NFC service. Male students with a non-Debrecen resident in higher-level vocational training are more likely to be included in this class.

• Software agents and decision support

  105-125

  Tibor Tarnóczi

  Views:

  125

  The results of artificial intelligence research are playing an increasingly important role in decision support and economic modelling computer systems, so are software agents whose application is present in almost any field of information technology. The agent is an autonomous "subsystem" which monitors its environment through its sensors and makes changes to it with its intervening organs, it is capable of adapting to its environment, and by using this knowledge it is able to make alteration to its plans or actions to improve them. The application of agents may lead to resounding results in economic modelling as well. The study outlines the characteristics of decision making which are important as regards the assessment of agents as well as the major features of software agents and their possible economic applications.

• The use of logical programming in decision-making systems

  105-113

  Tibor Tarnóczi

  Views:

  26

  The strong market in teh globalized economy makes fast, quality responses important. In the accelerated world time for reaction has been decreased, so to say there is less time for response, on the other handm the problems have become more complex and the information needed to make the decision has grown. In this environment computational-response programs have gained an important role. This article shows the opportunities of logical programming and its use and advantages in economic modelling and decision-making systems.

• Price transmission on the Hungarian pork meat market in the presence of structural breaks

  24-36

  Zoltan Bakucs L.

  Views:

  112

  The study of marketing margins and price transmission on various commodity markets has been a popular research topic of the past decades (see MEYER, VON CRAMON-TAUBADEL, 2004, for a present survey). However with a few exceptions these studies focused on developed economies. This paper examines the above phenomena on the Hungarian pork market. The Johansen (maximum likelihood, 1988) or Engle and Granger (two step, 1987) cointegration tests do not reject the no-cointegration null hypothesis between the Hungarian pork producer and retail price series. Therefore, we applied the Gregory and Hansen (1996) procedure with recursively estimated breakpoints and ADF statistics, and found that the prices are cointegrated with a structural break occurring in April 1996. Exogeneity tests reveal the causality running from producer to retail prices both in the long and short run. Homogeneity tests are rejected, suggesting mark-up pricing strategy. Price transmission modelling suggests that price transmission on the Hungarian pork meat market is symmetric in the long, but asymmetric in the short-run, i.e. processors, wholesalers or retailers might take temporary advantage, should price changes occur.

  Journal of Econmic Literature (JEL) classification: Q13, D12, D4

• Strategy and strategy formulation in Hungarian SME practice

  19-32

  Anna Salamonne Huszty

  Views:

  198

  This study deals with the second phase of a two-year research program focused on modelling the lifcycle of small ventures operating in the Hungarian market. The results of the first phase were published in the March 2006 issue of Competitio. The goal of the second phase was to analyze the role of strategic thinking and strategy formulation at small ventures in different phases of ther lifecycles. The strategy making approaches as described by Henry Mintzberg and strategic positioning models of Micheal Porter were used to generate hypotheses. Strategy making practices and typical market maneuvers are described in detail. Key weaknesses and development problems are highlighted. Basic Business models built on srtategic behavior are recommended as a starting point for further research.

• Business Intelligence from a Strategic Perspective

  49-70

  Gyorgy Bogel

  Attila Papp

  Views:

  469

  Business Intelligence is one of the fastest growing sectors of corporate informatics today. The study describes the history of the related approaches, models and applications, starting from the beginning of the last century. The most important growth engines are highlighted and the strategic role of business intelligence is explained in detail. Both the supply and the demand side of the BI market are analysed and key developments and trends are explained. Special attention is paid to explaining and modelling the intensive acquisition activity of the recent past, and to the potential consequences of the growing need for integration. New market and technology trends changing the application landscape are analysed at the end.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: M10, M15, M40

• Financial Crisis, Economic Policy and Economics

  19-34

  Jozsef Moczar

  Views:

  144

  Concerning the financial crisis in 2007-2009 many politicians and economists, in addition
  to representatives of other disciplines have asked: why could it not have been avoided,
  why could it not have been forecast? The present paper provides a new answer to these
  questions. The main argument is that empirical economic policy reached a deadlock when
  economists acknowledged the equilibrium models based on efficient market theory. The
  static equilibrium paradigm which appeared in the middle of last century has strongly
  prevailed to the present day, leaving aside Kornai’s (1971) or Benassy’s (1982) or Goodwin’s
  (1991) warnings. Since the economy is never in equilibrium the simultaneous equations
  describing it may not provide any guide for politicians; what they should do and how they
  should do it in a time of economic crisis. The present author’s newest book (Móczár, 2008),
  besides the dynamic equilibrium, also sketches a new paradigm, i.e., non equilibrium
  modelling, instead of the orthodox equilibrium paradigm, which allows us to treat bubbles,
  to regulate money markets etc. Its necessity is outlined here.

  JEL classification: E00, E5, E6, G28