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• Phillips-görbe-modellek az újklasszikus és a újkeynesi elméletekben

  54-72.

  Katalin Bodnár

  Views:

  235

  A közgazdaságtan egyik régebbi kérdése a normális és a reálváltozók közötti kapcsolatok jellegére vonatkozik. Az egyes közgazdasági iskolák vitáiban sarkalatos pontként jelenik meg az efféle kapcsolatokról megjelenő különböző véleményeket igazoló modellek és következtetések. A tanulmány a legújabb közgazdasági iskolák nézeteit és azokra alapozott gazdaságpoltikai javaslatokat mutatja be, illetve állítja egymással szembe. A tanulmány a Phillips-görbe "halála" az újklasszikus makroökonómia, illetve feltámadása az új-keynes-i iskolák modelljeinek ismertetésével egyaránt nyomon követhető az írásban. Kitűnik a Phillis-görbe és a gyakorlati gazdaságpoltika közötti igen szoros kapcsolat. A jelenleg érvényes, leginkább elterjedt nézetnek a neokeynes-i szemlélet tűnik, de bármilyen alapon is ítélik meg a tanulmányban bemutatott modelleket, nem lehet elvonatkoztatni a kortól, amelyben fogantak.

• Financial Crisis, Economic Policy and Economics

  19-34

  Jozsef Moczar

  Views:

  123

  Concerning the financial crisis in 2007-2009 many politicians and economists, in addition
  to representatives of other disciplines have asked: why could it not have been avoided,
  why could it not have been forecast? The present paper provides a new answer to these
  questions. The main argument is that empirical economic policy reached a deadlock when
  economists acknowledged the equilibrium models based on efficient market theory. The
  static equilibrium paradigm which appeared in the middle of last century has strongly
  prevailed to the present day, leaving aside Kornai’s (1971) or Benassy’s (1982) or Goodwin’s
  (1991) warnings. Since the economy is never in equilibrium the simultaneous equations
  describing it may not provide any guide for politicians; what they should do and how they
  should do it in a time of economic crisis. The present author’s newest book (Móczár, 2008),
  besides the dynamic equilibrium, also sketches a new paradigm, i.e., non equilibrium
  modelling, instead of the orthodox equilibrium paradigm, which allows us to treat bubbles,
  to regulate money markets etc. Its necessity is outlined here.

  JEL classification: E00, E5, E6, G28 

• The conceptual inconsistency of the rational anticipation theory

  103-126

  Peter Galbacs

  Views:

  249

  In this article we analyse various contradictions in the assumptions and consquences forming the theory of rational expectations. The argument aims to demonstrate that important parts of the theory cannot be maintained at the same time without damaging the theory's logical structure, while we recognize that other parts force the theory far from the basis of reality. However, the rational ecpectations hypothesis is not simply a useless theoretical construct, since by delineating the proper boundaries of this hypothesis we can offer a clear justification for the operability of inflation targeting systems. If we relax the strong presumptions, giving a place to a monetary authority that is able and calculated to drive by Muth, although some consequences of this conception will be consistent with the assumptions - which depend on conditions that seem not to hold - of the original (strong) definition.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: B2, E5.

• On the theoretical background to modern financial policy

  139-156

  Laszlo Jankovics

  Views:

  86

  At the formation of macroeconomics and modern economic policy a series of traditional Keynesian concepts which still carried great weight were changed in the wake of attacks from monetarism and neo-classicism. The currently fashionable financial policy regimes and the dilemmas of economic policy cannot be understood without analysing the theoretical revolution referred to above. The article examines the relevant areas and claims connected to currency and monetary policy in the modern economy, or to use a common expression the macro-economy of the open economy, with special reference to the paradigm shift of recent decades. It also studies the currently common conventions of applied economics, which, sprouting from theoretical bases, in practice influence the room for manoeuvre in national economic policy.