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Roadmap for the adoption of the euro in Hungary: dangers and opportunities
Views:164In April 2003, the EU Accession Agreement was officially signed for the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic. These countries are destined to become EU members in May 2004. As part of the “acquis communautaire”, participation in the new version of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II), and subsequently in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is obligatory for all new EU members (no opt-out clause is available). Therefore, the question today for the accession countries is no longer whether or not to enter the eurozone but rather the time horizon when the entry should happen.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) code: E42, E58, F33.
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Az euró és az új tagállamok: közgazdasági vagy politikai kihívás?
69-94Views:116Az európai közös valutára vonatkozó első tervek megjelenése óta komoly vita dúl a vonatkozó szakirodalomban arról, hogy az euró elsősorban makroökonómiai vállalkozásként, vagy inkább az integrációt
a föderális alapú politikai unió előszobájába juttató kezdeményezésként értelmezendő-e. Ezzel a dilemmával analóg módon, az új tagállamok2 eurózónás csatlakozását övező polémia is részben elkülöníthető
egyrészt a jellemzően gazdasági előnyöket és hátrányokat mérlegelő, másrészt a politikai-választási szempontokat előtérbe helyező argumentációra. A vázolt problémakörhöz kapcsolódva a tanulmány elsőként áttekinti, hogy milyen tanulságok azonosíthatók a közgazdasági megfontolások alapján az euró átvételére megfogalmazott stratégiákat illetően. Részben e tényezők feltárásának köszönhetően szakmai körökben láthatóan egyetértés övezi az eurózóna keleti kibővítésének főbb kérdéseit. Ezzel szemben komoly tartalmi nézetkülönbségek fedezhetők fel a választási logikát, illetve az európai integráció stratégiai helyzetét megjelenítő érvek hátterében. Az írás második felében sorra veszem és részletesen elemzem az euró bevezetéséhez kötődő politikai szempontokat, amelyek alapos végiggondolása ugyanakkor nem kérdőjelezi meg az eurózónába való lehető leghamarabbi betagozódást sürgető konszenzusos szakmai álláspont helyességét. -
The timing of the EMU accession
45-62Views:241Following the Eu-accession the next major challenge is the preparation for and finally the introduction of the single currency for the Central Eastern European countries. In this paper, I analyze the legal, economic and political factors regarding the preparedness of the whole region, with special emphasis on Hungary. After taking the pros and cons of the official "as soon as possible" strategy into consideration, we can conclude that there is no convincing case for further postponing eurozone entry. Additionally, putting off the date indefinitely or ambiguously could result in growing economic uncertainty and dangerous financial instability. In the case of Hungary, it is very likely that the country would suffer serious loss of reputation and credibility were it to put off the target date a second time, i.e. beyond 2010. Lack of strong political commitment could unfortunately easily lead to a postponement of the adaption of the single currency. The potential implication might well be debated, but no doubt would be serious in terms of reputation and economic development.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E42, E58, F33
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The joining negotiations in rapport with the EMU
75-87Views:129The study surveys the field that deals with the Eastward expansion of the European Economic and Monetary Union /EMU/ after the joining negotiations, involving the probable legal, political and economic dilemmas and problems of the introduction of euro in Hungary. The joining contract and the relevant documents unambiguosly outlining the items within the monetary integration for the Hungarian economy can be planned. It also examines the chosen monetary integration for the Hungarian economy can be planned. It also examines the chosen monetary-political systems of the candidate for membership countries from the relevant European regulation point of view, just as the possibility of individual solutions.
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On the theoretical background to modern financial policy
139-156Views:102At the formation of macroeconomics and modern economic policy a series of traditional Keynesian concepts which still carried great weight were changed in the wake of attacks from monetarism and neo-classicism. The currently fashionable financial policy regimes and the dilemmas of economic policy cannot be understood without analysing the theoretical revolution referred to above. The article examines the relevant areas and claims connected to currency and monetary policy in the modern economy, or to use a common expression the macro-economy of the open economy, with special reference to the paradigm shift of recent decades. It also studies the currently common conventions of applied economics, which, sprouting from theoretical bases, in practice influence the room for manoeuvre in national economic policy.
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The Monetary Union and the policitcal unification in Europe
96-104Views:135The article deals with the European Economic and Monetary Union's connection with politics. The author examines how the Monetary Union came to be with the help of the traditional integration theories and also what answers can be gained from them on the question of politically unification. He shows how the Werner-plan, mentioned as the forerunner of the EMU, helped in forming the Union in the light of the theory of optimal currency areas. He points at the problem around European fiscal federalism. In order to elevate the mostly underrated economic powers, he uses the Mundell-Fleming model to illustrate the economic relations behind the Union, which, to some extent, stand in contrast with the way of behaviour driving back to political thinking.