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The suspicion of Dutch Disease in Russia
103-124Views:270The main statement of the paper is the suspicion that Russia carries the symptoms of Dutch disease. The main justifications behind it are the appreciation of real exchange rates, the deterioration of the performance of the manufacturing sector and the improvement of service sector results. However it is difficult to prove the determining factors behind these processes, so the conclusion that Russia has this ailment has to be treated with caution. As the Dutch disease is only one of the determining factors of the resource curse hypothesis, in the case of Russia other relevant aspects may also play a significant role, such as, inter alia, continuous and considerable corruption, the weaknesse of democratic political system, a protectionist economic policy and a low level of competition, especially in the energy sectors. All of the reasons behind the paradox of the plenty type resource curse phenomenon, and among them the Dutch disease, can jeopardise long-run growth sustainability.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: F31, L60, L72, Q32, Q33
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Russia in Europe
42-53Views:186While Russia has always defined herself, since WW II the latest, in relation to America, the focus of the Russian foreign economy and foreign policy has traditionally been and remained Europe. In the new millenium this contradiction is increased by postmodernity and the policy of the balance of powers of the 19th century. The paper - with a historical overview - justifies that the solution is the unusual relationship between foreign policy and internal policy. Whereas in most countries foreign policy is the extension of the internal policy, in Russia it has been and currently is also the other way round. Foreign policy is the extension of the internal policy, in Russia it has been and currently is also the otherway round. Foreign policy is the means of internal, national and state building efforts and is understandable only from this point of view.
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Fossil energy and economic growth in coal-based economies: empirical modeling and sustainability challenges
126-145Views:28The study examines the relationship between fossil energy consumption and economic growth in carbon-based economies, with a particular focus on the role of energy intensity and energy efficiency. We aim to quantify the impact of fossil energy consumption on economic growth through model-based analysis and identify the development and sustainability challenges of energy-intensive economies. The study used a Random Forest model to analyze the relationship between fossil energy consumption and GDP growth. The data are from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators database for the period 2013–2023, considering the economic structure of different countries. Energy intensity showed a strong positive correlation with GDP growth in China, Russia and Mongolia, while in more developed economies such as Canada and the United States, a lower or negative relationship is observed. Fossil energy-intensive economies benefit in the short term, but diversification is needed in the long term for sustainability. Diversifying the economy and increasing energy efficiency are key to sustainable development. The results can help policymakers plan the energy transition, especially focusing on reducing fossil fuel dependence and integrating renewable energy sources for economic and environmental stability.
JEL codes: O13, Q43, Q56, C53, O44
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Energy prices and subsidies – Is Europe losing?
20-48Views:236In the early 2020s, several large US public investment subsidy programmes, followed by a surge in energy prices as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war, have raised concerns in Europe. This article examines these two recent causes of the weakening of the EU's competitiveness, focusing on the impact of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on investment diversion. Based on an analysis of the initial consequences of the IRA and some patterns of corporate behaviour, it concludes that, in an environment of political uncertainty, the relocation of firms and investment to the US is not yet a mass phenomenon, but that the new situation may lead Europe to develop new coherent strategies.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: F21, F68, L50, L62, O14, O25
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The future of Russian outward foreign direct investment and the eclectic paradigm: What changes after the crisis of 2008–2009?
31-54Views:420This article explores the future of Russian outward foreign direct investment in the aftermath of the crisis of 2008–2009. As it is too early to analyse the full impact of the crisis, it develops hypotheses about the degree of slowdown in the foreign expansion of Russian transnational corporations. It uses an extension of the eclectic paradigm to home country advantages (competitive environment, business environment, development strategy, State involvement) applied to a comparison of the Russian Federation with other economies in transition as an analytical tool. Systematic differences between transnationals from the Russian Federation (global firms, based on natural resources, aiming for vertical integration of assets) and from new European Union member countries (regional firms, based on downstream activities or services, aiming for horizontal integration) allow us to formulate more solid conclusions about the future of the Russian firms facing lower export prices, lower market capitalizations and higher debts. In turn, this article argue that a comparison with the large emerging economies of Brazil, China and India, under the acronym of BRIC can be less useful in the current context, as these economies are significantly less affected by the crisis of 2008–2009 than the Russian Federation; hence they can not expect a slowdown in their outward foreign direct investment similar to that of Russian transnationals.
JEL: F23; F21; O52; P29