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Calculation of climatic probability of winter and spring frost damages in the main peach and apricot growing districts of Hungary
99-106.Views:201The probability of winter and spring frost damages experienced in peach and apricot plantations has been assessed in 5 growing regions of Hungary (Szeged-Szatymaz, around the lake Balaton, Mecsekalja, hills of Buda, Mátraalja) and (Mecsekalja, hills of Buda, PestGodo116, Duna-Tisza Mize, Matra-Bükkalja) during the period between 1951 and 2000.
Frost tolerance of flower buds on a given shoot sample is expressed by the mean value assessed after frost damage (LT50), and the meteorological records of the growing sites raised between 1951 and 2000 are used to calculate the probability of frost damage. In peach, the difference between growing sites and between varieties may become two fold as for the chance of repeated frost damage at a probability of 50 %. In apricot, the probability of frost damage may exhibit differences between growing sites up to 20 % as for susceptible varieties, and 16 % for frost tolerant varieties. Frost damage may vary between 4 and 18 % depending on the genuine frost tolerance of the varieties. Peach is afflicted by low temperature causing substantial losses of yield at the highest probability in the region Szeged-Szatymaz and at the lowest in Mátraalja. Apricot is, on the other hand, most endangered in the Duna-Tisza Mize region, while the lowest probability of frost damage is expected around Mecsek and Buda.
The critical period of frost damage in the mid of January in Szeged-Szatymaz region, in Mecsekalja the mid of February showed the highest probability of frost damage. All growing sites are frequented at high chances by frost damages occurring during and closely after the blooming period. Duna-Tisza köze is mainly afflicted in early March, whereas Mátra-Bükkalja in mid of January and each March.
The probability of temperatures below zero degree has been assessed in all the 5 regions observed. Around April 5-8 the probability of freezing temperatures diminishes steeply at all sites, whereas the risk of frost increases again around April 9— 11. That climatic peculiarity of should be taken into consideration in choosing growing sites or varieties.
Postulating the effects of a global warming up of the climate, the chances of avoiding frost damages at different growing sites by delaying the blooming dates are considered. According to our calculations, the delay of blooming by 5 days may diminish the risk of frost damage by 4-20 % at the growing sites examined, whereas a delay of 10 days reduces the risk by 37-85 % in both fruit species.
Calculations offered an answer on the question of climatic changes, whether the probability of winter and spring frosts damage changed during the 50 years. The long list of data shows the diminishing chances of winter frosts, while the probability of temperatures risking spring frost damages increased after the early 1970-es up to now.
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Temporal changes of the frequency of spring frost damages in the main fruit growing regions in Western Hungary and in East Hungary
81-87.Views:316Most of the risk in Hungarian fruit growing is the damage caused by late spring frosts. The frequency of late frosts seems to increase nowadays. The aim of the study was to check this contention: what is the real probability of the damages. Based on earlier experiences, the physiological LT50 function has been elaborated for new fruit varieties, which are eligible to moderate the danger when being threatened by frost. By means of this technique, the probability of freezing is distinguished between frost susceptible, frost resistant and medium frost resistant fruit species and varieties around their blooming time. The degree of frost damage depends on the duration and severity of the low temperature and not at least on the frost tolerance of the plant. For that purpose, the frequencies of frost damages were studied at two Transdanubian and two Trans-Tisza fruit growing sites by means of a meteorological database for the 60-year-long period 1951–2010. Being aware of the LT50 values changing during the phonological phases of the fruit trees from budding, bloom, fruit set and fruit growth, the number and date of critical (frosty) days could be settled. An important role is attributed to the orographic relief and the height above the sea level of the site, as 20–30 m differences and expositions may become decisive within the same plantation. The spatial distribution of damages is also dependent on the air circulations within the Carpathian basin. At the southern and northern borders of the country, especially valley bottoms represent additional risks of frost. Most spring frost damages are experienced in April 20–22, and cause heavy damages by temperature minima between – 3°C and – 6°C. The severity of damage depends largely on the temperature of the preceding few days. The earlier bloom the heavier damage is expected. The study is emphasising the importance of the varieties. Frost tolerance of some varieties may lower the risk of spring frosts by 40–50%, as experienced on the plantations. The quantifi cation of the risks based on data raised during the last years will be suitable to defi ne the security of yields of each growing site successfully.
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Damages caused by winter frosts, their temporal variation and frequencies in the main fruit growing region of Transdanubia and of the East Tisza regions of Hungary
89-97.Views:232The aim of the study was the study of winter frost damages, especially their changes expressed in temporal frequencies on the main fruit growing regions of the country. In our earlier paper, we introduced the calculation with the term LT50 as the quantitative expression of temperature threshold, when the lethality halves the survival of plant organs, buds or cells causing 50% death rate. The damage is highly dependent on the temperature and on its duration (length of time), but not at least on the frost tolerance of the fruit trees. The incidence and severity of damage is analysed according to the apricot and peach varieties of their different susceptibility or tolerance too. Four fruit growing regions, two of the in Transdanubia and two belonging to the regions east of the Tisza river have been selected to trace the incidence and severity of frost damages. For that purpose, we analysed the history of the past 60 year period, 1951–2010, utilising the database of the network of 16 meteorological stations of the countrywide service. Being aware of the values of LT50 during the rest period and afterward, the compulsory dormancy caused by low temperature, the number of days, the probability of frost damage could be predicted. The role of the orographical profi le, the height above sea level and the exposition of plantations are also decisive. Within the same plantation, 20–30 m difference of level may cause large diversity in temperature and frost damage. Air circulation and regular incidence of winds within the Carpathian basin modify the occurrence and severity of damages. Lowlands near the southern and northern country borders are particularly exposed to winter frosts. Most damages are reported in February, as temperatures below –20 °C especially if the fi rst part of the winter was mild, or in January was a warm period. With the end of the physiological rest period of the trees, the frost-susceptibility increases signifi cantly, and a cold period of –15 °C may cause heavy damage. This study proves that tolerance of varieties infl uence the damages substantially. By planting frost tolerant varieties, winter frost damages could be diminished by 40–50% at the same growing sites. Present results may also offer a tool to estimate the risk of frost damages and express the security of yields at a given site based on the data accumulated in the database over many years.
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Extreme weather events inWest Hungary
29-32.Views:264Agricultural production is a rather risky activity, as it is largely exposed to extreme weather events. This paper focuses on the frost and hail data in springtime, affecting fruit production in West Hungary. Regarding absolute minimum temperatures in April, significant increase of the standard deviations could be observed. Among the sites examined Nagykanizsa shows the highest risk values. According to our evaluation Nagykanizsa is not recommended to plant sour cherry, sweet cherry and apricot orchards because in some years spring frost will occur. If the plantation is in Zalaegerszeg, Szombathely, Gyôr or Keszthely than usage of frost prevention system is recommended. Siófok is the only area to grow apricot with good result.
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Climatic indicators regarding the rest period of sour cherry
49-52.Views:203Sour cherry production in the world is increasing gradually. Profitable production, i.e. yield, depends largely on weather conditions. If Hungary wishes to keep up with the most successful countries, attention should be paid to the weather during the dormancy period, being definitely decisive from the points of view of quality as well as quantity. In order to predict the expected risk factors, characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing at Újfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), and phenological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. For the future expectations study we have used the RegCM3.1 regional climate model with 10 km resolution. Data of 4 indicators have been traced: Average temperatures, Number of days without frost, Maximum length of periods without frost, Maximum length of frosty period. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand, estimates have been attempted for the future changes expected during the following decades.
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The role of insurance in the damager mitigation of fruit orchards
117-122.Views:164Hungary faced many natural disasters in 2007. Due to the estimation of the Hungarian Chamber of Agriculture, the amount of natural disasters that occurred in Spring 2007 (frost, hailstorm and drought in April and May) is about 100 billion HUF. Frost and drought caused damage on about 250 thousand hectares of arable land. Currently, there are four insurance companies dealing with agricultural insurances in Hungary. Their income was nearly 20 billion HUF in 2003, whereas it barely exceeded 6.6 billion HUF in 2004. The reason behind the significant decrease of insurance fee is the state provision made in 2004 stopping fee subsidisation which originally started in 1996, enabling farmers to require a 25-30% reimbursement of the amount paid for insurance. Launching a state subsidisation again would greatly increase the number of agricultural insurances. The law about the national agricultural mitigation system passed last Autumn. This provision declares that the mitigation of agricultural damage that cannot be insured on a business-like basis is based on the common risk-taking by the state and the farmers. The introduction of this system is explained by the fact that the mitigation of damages through disaster can only be carried out if those affected also take part in it, according to EU rules.
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Flower density and winter damage of apricot and peach varieties
53-56.Views:246Hungary is located on the northern boundary of economical apricot and peach production. The present assortment of varieties and the actual, not adequately selected growing sites cause a permanent risk of winter and spring frosts in their cultivation. The field observations are performed at Debrecen, the Experiment Station Pallag, on 20 apricot and 21 peach varieties. The flower density among the varieties attained 3-4-fold differences. Three categories have been suggested for both species. The density was inferior in Hungary established varieties compared with the new varieties of foreign origin. The minimum temperatures of January 9, 2009 was –17,6 °C , and of December 21, 2009 also –17,6 °C. In some varieties the damage of buds attained 100%. For estimating the yield security, we need to consider also the flower density and the frost damage together. For a mediocre yield, we need a flower density in both species of at least 0.2 living bud/cm. The results confirm the statement that in Hungary, the revision of growing sites is indispensable in order to develop a profitable and competitive apricot and peach growing industry.
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Utilisation of data raised in blooming phenology of fruit trees for the choice of pollinisers of plum and apricot varieties
35-41.Views:278Information concerning the blooming time of stone fruit varieties is, first of all, an important condition of finding suitable pollinisers securing adequate fruit set. For that purpose, varieties are assigned to blooming-time-groups. Depending on the number (3 or 5) of the groups, i.e. the length of intervals separating the groups established, pollenisers are to be chosen for self-incompatible and partially self-fertile varieties belonging to the same blooming-time-group. The mutually most overlapping blooming periods of the respective varieties should be found by raising data of their blooming phenology, i.e. dynamics, which is compared by drawing their phenograms and calculating blooming (V) indices. Variety combinations have to be checked, however, concerning mutual fertility relations of the respective pairs of varieties. That is most important in the case of Japanese plums because of the abundant incompatible combinations. Synchronous blooming has been determined by assigning the varieties to blooming-time-groups, or comparing overlaps of blooming phenograms, or by blooming (V) indices. Synchronous blooming phenology has been studied in European plum varieties (111 varietiy combinations) Japanese plums (156 variety combinations) and apricots (153 variety combinations) under Hungarian conditions, over several seasons. In determining overlaps, the less favourable season has been considered as decisive. Polliniser combinations have been chosen with at least 70% synchronous blooming. Blooming time of varieties is an important part of the variety descriptions. Blooming dates may serve also for the estimations of frost risk or security of yield.