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• Fossil energy and economic growth in coal-based economies: empirical modeling and sustainability challenges

  126-145

  Botond Géza Kálmán

  Szilvia Módosné Szalai

  Helga Sárközy

  Views:

  91

  The study examines the relationship between fossil energy consumption and economic growth in carbon-based economies, with a particular focus on the role of energy intensity and energy efficiency. We aim to quantify the impact of fossil energy consumption on economic growth through model-based analysis and identify the development and sustainability challenges of energy-intensive economies. The study used a Random Forest model to analyze the relationship between fossil energy consumption and GDP growth. The data are from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators database for the period 2013–2023, considering the economic structure of different countries. Energy intensity showed a strong positive correlation with GDP growth in China, Russia and Mongolia, while in more developed economies such as Canada and the United States, a lower or negative relationship is observed. Fossil energy-intensive economies benefit in the short term, but diversification is needed in the long term for sustainability. Diversifying the economy and increasing energy efficiency are key to sustainable development. The results can help policymakers plan the energy transition, especially focusing on reducing fossil fuel dependence and integrating renewable energy sources for economic and environmental stability.

  JEL codes: O13, Q43, Q56, C53, O44

• Is growth sustainable without rules-based policy?

  7-26

  Laszlo Csaba

  Views:

  228

  The article examines conditions for rules-based fiscal policy in the European Union and discusses the consequences of softening up the Stability and Growth Pact by the March 2005 Council. It surveys arguments in favor of rules-based policy and proves that most of the arguments in favor of softening up the Pact, as well as the concrete steps of modification do not contribute to lasting and improved fiscal solidity in the euro area, but follow opportunistic political considerations of the big member states. It shows why the modifications make the life of the new entrants more difficult and allow for lax fiscal policies and secular slowdown of growth.

• Sustainability of growth in countries with diverse backgrounds in the light of main international indices

  145-168

  Tamas Borko

  Views:

  226

  The paper tries to answer why fossil fuel abundant countries with diverse backgrounds perform differently depending on the dominance of the advantages or disadvantages accruing from natural resource wealth. With the contribution of the most popular competitiveness and institutional indices the determining factors are indentified. The distinctive factors are market efficiency, the quality of the business environment, innovative capability, the quality and efficiency of governmental, market and judicial institutions, the low level of corruption and the existence of political and civil freedom.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: O13, O17, Q32

• Economy of Austria

  125-148

  Kitti Vass

  Views:

  282

  In my article I examine a member state of the European Union, the open and federal Austria, which can be considered as an example of a corporate economy. During the reconstruction period following the Second World War the Austrian economy was characterized by a frantic economic expansion. After the oil crisis, an incomparably low inflation rate and low unemployment, and the more dynamic than average economic growth attracted attention to the country. Due to the intensified external economic interest, the Austrian model - namely the economic policy and establishment - was widely studied at this time. However, at the beginning of the 1980's some structural problems appearing in the economy contributed to slowdown in growth, until the political changes of the year 2000, which finally brought a new favourable turn in economic policy. I start with an examination of Austria's economic status after the Second World War, then the development, changes and role of the Austrian social partnership. I go on to analyze today's Austria from the point of view of the sustainable balanced budget, focusing on the financial circumstances of the state, such as the complex financial connections derived from federalism.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL): H62, H63

• Chance for a more liveable Hungary

  5-18

  Laszlo Csaba

  Views:

  209

  This study examines the question of how successful the transition of Hungary in social fields has been over the last two decades. It comes to the conclusion that, besides the successes in the economy and the deficits in the social spheres, the reserves of the first one and a half decades are approaching exhaustion. The accession to the EU creates a chance, but not a guarantee, for the next period to be a success. The challenges for the country are very different in 2007 from what they were in 1995. For this reason we try to show directions for sustainable growth and more fruitful social politics.

• Nyugdíjreform-dilemmák – jövedelemelosztási arányok és makropénzügyi egyensúly

  5-32

  Laszlo Antal

  Views:

  227

  The paper aims to outline the main relations and critical points of the pension system which make the reform of the whole system inevitable in near future. The most important cause stems from demographic change: in the developed countries average life expectancy is rising rapidly while the number of births is diminishing. This results in rising retirement outgoings and decreasing revenues from superannuation taxes. In addition to this medical expenses are increasing due to the development of treatment methods. In contrast, in Hungary the average life expectancy will only increase after 20-30 years. The main problems of the distributive systems are rooted in the particular characteristics of the political change following the collapse of communism. The level of employment decreased dramatically and there are many tax arbitrage opportunities. In addition nowadays 90% of employers tend to retire on a pension before retirement age. These factors make the main distributive system unsustainable. Additionally the elderly dependence rate will double in the next few decades. Parties debating a socially and financially sustainable main distributive system agree on the inevitability of an increasing role for self-provision and a cut in the growth in expenditure. The pension system will not be able to keep pace with growing wages, to guarantee insurance principals and a minimal income in old-age, and to meet the requirements of long-term financing at the same time, especially not in the period of demographic changes.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL): I38, J11, J26