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Comparative analysis of the production risk of major fruit species
119-122.Views:193Hungary possesses excellent agri-ecological potentials even in an international comparison. Despite their decreasing economic weight, agriculture and food production are of great significance, since the supply of the population with high quality and inexpensive food is a fundamental social demand and one of the essentials of the quality of life. The development of vegetable and food production is of great importance both from the aspect of healthy nutrition and comparative advantages (cheap workforce, professional expertise, traditions of production, climate favourable for quality). Within the Hungarian fruit production apple and sour cherry are essential branches in virtue of their significance. It is widely known, that – though to a different extent in the case of certain fruit varieties – satisfaction of the need for appropriate habitat is one of the important conditions of a decent quality and secure production. In my research, I analyse the territorial distribution, production standard and production risk of the Hungarian apple and sour cherry branches. I did not have the opportunity – because of the imperfections of the database – to compare long time series, therefore I examine the random effects affecting production by using the data of 3 years (they have the same content). I ranked and assessed each habitat and the production risks of certain fruit species compared to each other on the basis of indexes of relative deviation.
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Comparison of pear production areas from yield risk aspect
25-28.Views:477There are three main pear production regions in Hungary. The most relevant is theWest-Transdanubian (Zala, Vas and Gyôr-Moson-Sopron counties), where up to 30% of total pear production occurs. The second most productive region is Pest County, where pear is grown mostly in gardens and garden plots, resulting in 15-20% of Hungarian production. In the northern Hungarian region (Bodrog valley in Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Heves and Nógrád counties), the microclimate is perfect for optimal pear production. In our analysis, we focused on four plantations that are dominant in pear production in Hungary. Two of them are situated in south-western Hungary, one of them is in South Transdanubia and one is in North Hungary. Considering the personal attitude of the decision maker towards risk, the best alternative is ‘Williams’ in Alsóberecki, as the yield risk is the lowest with this variety, while the second best alternative is ‘Bosc Beurre,’ also produced in Alsóberecki. This is an irrigated area, and this fact evidently decreases the yield risk. The highest risk is in Bánfapuszta and in Zalasárszeg, for the non-irrigated ‘Williams’ variety. The highest yield with the lowest risk can be obtained with irrigation. Nevertheless, in the case that relevant data are available, and by incorporating cost and expected profit data, the stochastic dominance method is suitable for financial risk assessment, as well.
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The Hungarian peach production risks
85-89.Views:198Hungary possesses very good agroecological conditions even in a European comparison. Agriculture and food production is highly important despite its decreasing relative economic significance, since providing high quality and affordable food for the population is a basic social necessity and one of the decisive factors in quality of life. The development of vegetable and fruit production is of great importance both from a healthy nutrition as well as from a comparative advantage (cheap labour, expertise, production traditions, favourable climate) point of view.Vegetable and fruit consumption per capita is lower than in developed countries, which is a decisive indicator of healthy nutrition, but improvement is continuous and desired. Appropriate quality and quantity in production is a requirement to meet customers’ needs in a highly competitive market from one year to the next. Hungary can only be competitive if production results are improved while risks are reduced. Fruit production is a sector with high capital requirements, risk assessment is very important from a production, investment as well as from a national economy point of view. Our examinations will focus on production risk, which is present in the annual fluctuation of average yields, especially as a result of extreme weather factors.
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Hazardous element content and consumption risk of 9 apricot cultivars
61-65.Views:333The heavy metals pollution is one of the problems that arise due to the increased uses of fertilizers and other chemicals to meet the higher demands of food production for human consumption. In order to assess possible health risk of apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) consumption, levels of Arsenic, Cadmium, Mercury and Lead were determined in fresh and dried samples of "Jumbo cot", "Tom cot", "Gold strike", "Gold bar", "Bergeron", "Bergarouge", "Sweet cot", "Yellow cot" and "Zebra" apricot cultivars. Wet digestion of samples with concentrate HNO3 – H2O2 digester mixture and inductively coupled plasma–atomic emission spectroscopy was used. Highest content of As, Cd, Hg and Pb among all cultivars, were 0.5, 0.04, 1.5 and 0.5mg/kg of dried apricot samples. Fresh fruit samples also contain 0.2, 0.016, 0.6 and 0.2 mg/kg of Arsenic, Cadmium, Mercury and Lead respectively. Daily intake of metals, hazard quotient and health risk index to reveal health risk possibility of dried and fresh fruits consumption were calculate and compared.
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Climate change impacts and product lines
79-83.Views:241This paper summarizes the main effects of extreme weather events on agricultural production and demonstrates their economic consequences. For cost-benefit analysis of economic impacts and for determination of risk levels simulation models are needed that contains the relationship between product line levels and elements. WIN-SIM model is developed for this goal, specialized for wine production. The model is suitable to analyze the market share, the cost and income relations as well as the relation structure of the product lines. The four levels of the model (site, vine growing, wine production and wine market levels) have individual values added from the aspect of end product, where the product line sets out from the site level and gets through the levels up to the consumer segments. Theoretically, all elements can be connected to any element of the next level and sublevel, but there are “prohibited contacts” because of professional, regulation or production practice reasons.
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The utilisation of nutrient elements in soilless cultures of vegetable production
47-49.Views:221Vegetable production in greenhouses may impair the ecological balance of the environment substantially as far as being uncontrolled. Soilless cultures especially should be handled thoughtfully. A fraction of the nutrients administered, more than 25-30%, is doomed to be lost in an open system, and the resulting ecological risk is accompanied with increasing costs of the production. Experiments have been conducted with the purpose of estimate the amount of nutrients involved. According to the results, as a mean, 30-80 per cent of the main nutrients was utilised. The rate of nutrient utilisation is influenced by the plant species involved as well as by the circumstances of production. One of its most important components is the irrigation, which determines the amount of overflow and of its salt content.
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Training systems of fruit trees in Hungary
123-127.Views:355Growing sites and soil conditions of Hungary warrant profitable production of several temperate fruits at elevated levels of quality. The climate of the Carpathian basin is a mixtures of three main climatic zones the prevalence of which may change seasonally: Atlantic, continental and Mediterranean, therefore, growing sites are rather various. Temperature minima of the winter and late spring frosts are the main elements of risk. In choice of the system of cultivation, regularity of yields and intensity are to be observed equally. Regular yields are particularly aimed in stone fruit cultures.
For apple and pear plantations of high density required for intense production are promoted favourably. Accessories of intense orchards (irrigation, supporting system, rootstocks, phytotechniques, etc.) are important. In peach and plum trees are trained to funnel-shape crowns, in general, intense-types are possible in plum, only. In apricots, a Hungarian speciality, the "umbrella" type of crown is applied, almost exclusively, according to Papp. In sweet and sour cherry, the harvest technique, manual or mechanised, according to the intended utilisation, are determining the form of training.
Red and black currants as small fruits are grown mostly as bushes or hedgerows without any supporting system designed to facilitate mechanical harvest. Raspberries and blackberries are grown as hedges on trellis. Gooseberry is a special case, being a low, thorny bush difficult to be picked. Thus grafted small trees are attached to a wire-trellis which helps to solve problems of plant protection too.
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Role of organosilicone surfactant in apple scab control under scab conducive weather conditions
23-25.Views:238Fungicides of integrated fruit production (dithianon, captan, and diclofluanid) and an organosilicone surfactant were compared in spray schedules from green tip until summer in order to control apple scab caused by Venturia inaequalis and to evaluate their phytotoxicity on fruit. Sixteen sprays of 1.8 kg ha-1captan, 0.41 ha-1 dithianon, and 1.8 kg ha-1 diclolfluanid significantly (P=0.05) reduced the incidence of leaf or fruit scab compared to unsprayed products. All fungicides applied with organosilicone at 0.1% resulted in lower incidence of scab on young and older leaves as well as on harvested fruit, but these were not statistically always better than fungicides applied alone. In case of diclofluanid, the fungicide applied with organosilicone at 0.1% resulted in significantly lower (P = 0.001) incidence of scab on young and older leaves. Diclofluanid applied with organosilicone at 0.1% gave the best scab control on leaf and fruit. Treatments applied with fungicides alone had no significant effect on plant phytotoxicity compared to untreated control. All fungicides applied with organosilicone at 0.1% increased (P = 0.05) fruit damage compared to untreated control or fungicide applied alone, though these were not always significantly different. In case of percentage of fruit russet, treatment of dithianon 0.4 1/ha + 0.1% organosilicone significantly increased fruit russet, while fruit russet index significantly increased in the treatment of diclofluanid 1.8 kg/ha + 0.1% organosilicone compared to untreated control. In sum, application of surfactants can help to increase efficacy of scab fungicides; and consequently, to reduce the risk of fungus infection under high scab disease pressure. This fact may also be helpful in fungicide resistance management and reduced-spray programs with accurate scab warning systems.
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Flower density and winter damage of apricot and peach varieties
53-56.Views:308Hungary is located on the northern boundary of economical apricot and peach production. The present assortment of varieties and the actual, not adequately selected growing sites cause a permanent risk of winter and spring frosts in their cultivation. The field observations are performed at Debrecen, the Experiment Station Pallag, on 20 apricot and 21 peach varieties. The flower density among the varieties attained 3-4-fold differences. Three categories have been suggested for both species. The density was inferior in Hungary established varieties compared with the new varieties of foreign origin. The minimum temperatures of January 9, 2009 was –17,6 °C , and of December 21, 2009 also –17,6 °C. In some varieties the damage of buds attained 100%. For estimating the yield security, we need to consider also the flower density and the frost damage together. For a mediocre yield, we need a flower density in both species of at least 0.2 living bud/cm. The results confirm the statement that in Hungary, the revision of growing sites is indispensable in order to develop a profitable and competitive apricot and peach growing industry.
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Challenges of the vegetable and fruit market
83-89.Views:320The situation of the horticulture sectors have been in the limelight of the professional and economic decision makers all over Europe. This article analyses the situation of the sector from economic point of view and reveals the main reasons of its low income and high risk. It concludes that one of the biggest problems is the trading uncertainty in the vegetable and fruit sector that is caused by the asymmetric market structure of the post-regime era. Since sizes of vegetable and fruit plantations do not allow producers to supply individually the extremely concentrated food retail trade or the processing trade they must find alternative ways for trading their products. The study introduces two alternative solutions. One alternative is foundation of modern multi-level producer co-operatives with the help of EU subsidies. Secondary and tertiary co-operatives may achieve better market position and lower trading price risk with managing production, professional marketing, and improving the information flow. The other alternative is searching for new trading channels such as local provision, restructuring of local markets, and direct trade (home delivery and pick-it-yourself programmes). The shorter producer-consumer distance means better quality at lower price for customers and income in the case of smaller amount of products for producers. It is concluded that both solutions together or separately may help individual producers in their trading problems. However, whichever way they choose, producers must co-operate.
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Feasibility of investments in Hungarian grapewine sector
37-42.Views:202Investments in the vine growing-wine making sector can be characterised by a high level of' risk, and an important role of time, because there is a considerable time gap between the decision on investment and its consequences, whereas the ecological and economical factors should be considered as stochastic variables. Based on a real—life, typical vine—plantation project, the article analyses the profitability of vine growing-wine making sector as a function of different ecological and economical conditions depending on the added value content of products. Results of the investigations highlight: (1) the importance of subsidy for establishment of vine plantations: (2) the considerable influence of yields on rate of return of investment; (3) the role of increasing of added value content of products. Importance of the utilisation of alternative channels of distribution and the formation of producers' cooperatives are underlined, being based on calculation of return of investment.
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Extreme weather events inWest Hungary
29-32.Views:296Agricultural production is a rather risky activity, as it is largely exposed to extreme weather events. This paper focuses on the frost and hail data in springtime, affecting fruit production in West Hungary. Regarding absolute minimum temperatures in April, significant increase of the standard deviations could be observed. Among the sites examined Nagykanizsa shows the highest risk values. According to our evaluation Nagykanizsa is not recommended to plant sour cherry, sweet cherry and apricot orchards because in some years spring frost will occur. If the plantation is in Zalaegerszeg, Szombathely, Gyôr or Keszthely than usage of frost prevention system is recommended. Siófok is the only area to grow apricot with good result.
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Climatic indicators regarding the rest period of sour cherry
49-52.Views:253Sour cherry production in the world is increasing gradually. Profitable production, i.e. yield, depends largely on weather conditions. If Hungary wishes to keep up with the most successful countries, attention should be paid to the weather during the dormancy period, being definitely decisive from the points of view of quality as well as quantity. In order to predict the expected risk factors, characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing at Újfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), and phenological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. For the future expectations study we have used the RegCM3.1 regional climate model with 10 km resolution. Data of 4 indicators have been traced: Average temperatures, Number of days without frost, Maximum length of periods without frost, Maximum length of frosty period. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand, estimates have been attempted for the future changes expected during the following decades.