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• The timing of the EMU accession

  45-62

  Laszlo Jankovics

  Views:

  220

  Following the Eu-accession the next major challenge is the preparation for and finally the introduction of the single currency for the Central Eastern European countries. In this paper, I analyze the legal, economic and political factors regarding the preparedness of the whole region, with special emphasis on Hungary. After taking the pros and cons of the official "as soon as possible" strategy into consideration, we can conclude that there is no convincing case for further postponing eurozone entry. Additionally, putting off the date indefinitely or ambiguously could result in growing economic uncertainty and dangerous financial instability. In the case of Hungary, it is very likely that the country would suffer serious loss of reputation and credibility were it to put off the target date a second time, i.e. beyond 2010. Lack of strong political commitment could unfortunately easily lead to a postponement of the adaption of the single currency. The potential implication might well be debated, but no doubt would be serious in terms of reputation and economic development.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E42, E58, F33 

• A német transzferrendszer mint a gazdasági visszaesés okozója

  Agnes Orosz

  Views:

  172

  According to the theory of optimal currency areas the most important advantage of monetary integration is its positive effect on economic growth. However, examining Germany we can notice that since German reunification economic growth and the convergence between East and West Germany has slowed down. These facts show that the operation of the German currency union is not optimal and its performance has not improved over the last twenty years. The criteria of the optimal currency area theory is endogenous due to the recent development of the theory. This means that a country is more likely to satisfy the criteria for entry into a curreny union ex post than ex ante. In the case of Germany, examining the trends of economic growth we can conclude the the German currency union has not become optimal in the last two decades. These facts raise the puzzling question of what are the specific circumstances hindering the improvement if Germany's monetary union despite the endogeneity of the optimal currency area criteria. To answer this question the study examines the interactions between monetary and political integration with special attention to the issues of fiscal policy. According to the study the German transfer system and the dependency on transfers explain the discrepancy between theory and empirics.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E42, E62, E63, F01, F31, F36