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• The future of Russian outward foreign direct investment and the eclectic paradigm: What changes after the crisis of 2008–2009?

  31-54

  Kalman Kalotay

  Views:

  146

  This article explores the future of Russian outward foreign direct investment in the aftermath of the crisis of 2008–2009. As it is too early to analyse the full impact of the crisis, it develops hypotheses about the degree of slowdown in the foreign expansion of Russian transnational corporations. It uses an extension of the eclectic paradigm to home country advantages (competitive environment, business environment, development strategy, State involvement) applied to a comparison of the Russian Federation with other economies in transition as an analytical tool. Systematic differences between transnationals from the Russian Federation (global firms, based on natural resources, aiming for vertical integration of assets) and from new European Union member countries (regional firms, based on downstream activities or services, aiming for horizontal integration) allow us to formulate more solid conclusions about the future of the Russian firms facing lower export prices, lower market capitalizations and higher debts. In turn, this article argue that a comparison with the large emerging economies of Brazil, China and India, under the acronym of BRIC can be less useful in the current context, as these economies are significantly less affected by the crisis of 2008–2009 than the Russian Federation; hence they can not expect a slowdown in their outward foreign direct investment similar to that of Russian transnationals.

  JEL: F23; F21; O52; P29

• Political Economy of Fiscal Reform in Central and Eastern Europe

  66-75

  George Kopits

  Views:

  85

  The reform of public finances has been at the centre of the post-socialist transition of Central and Eastern Europe since the early 1990s. At various stages of the transition, the reform process encompassed the entire gamut of public finances: the national budget, sub-national finances, extrabudgetary operations, and state-owned financial and non-financial enterprises. For the most part, fiscal reform was a non-linear stop-and-go process – often characterised by backtracking as well – and was uneven across countries. Moreover, unlike most reform experience in the rest of the world, fiscal reform in this region took place against the backdrop of a radical break, as sovereign countries emerged from a colonial past following the collapse of the Soviet Union. An important milestone was reached in 2004–2007, when all ten countries covered in this article became members of the European Union. The purpose of this article is to discuss fiscal reform in Central and Eastern Europe from the perspective of political economy. Following an overview of basic reform trends, the article focuses on the principal drivers and impediments to reform in the region. To conclude, the ingredients of successful reform are examined. The article does not provide an exhaustive inventory of reform measures, nor does it offer a survey of broad political economy issues prior to or during the transition period. Country references are intended to serve as stylised illustrations of main points, rather than as a comprehensive documentation of reform episodes.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classifications: H1, H3, P2, P52.

• Varieties of development paths in post communist countries with special regard to the transition in Hungary

  5-25

  Miklos Szanyi

  Views:

  142

  Transition in Central and Eastern Europe was carried out in various ways. However, the different countries’ current economic structure, institutions and main economic performance measures are rather similar. The question asked is whether these countries follow a specific kind of development model? What seems likely is that they differ substantially from CIS countries in many aspects. But they also seem to differ from existing models of capitalism more than they do from each-other. Based on this information, the varieties of capitalism literature assumes that such a model does indeed exist. However, no comprehensive positive description of the model has so far been provided. This paper tries to define the main elements of the CEE capitalist models. These are small open economies, with close integration into the world economy through foreign investments, a relatively limited and declining role of state redistribution, the problems of dual economic structure and insufficient job creation, a relatively large shadow economy and “business capture”-type cronyism. Further research is required to properly describe the elements and interactions among them.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classifications: D72, E65, P31

• Political budget cycles: fiscal cycle effects in state expenditures in Poland

  47-62

  Agnes Halasz

  Views:

  125

  In this paper we aim to investigate what kind of role fiscal cycles played in the development of the state budget balances in Poland between 1989 and 2011. Overall, the results of the latest research have found that political budget cycles (PBC) are more typical in less developed countries with a shorter period of experience with democratic institutions, such as the post-socialist transition economies. Nevertheless, empirical studies point out that this phenomenon has been disappearing over time as voters learn how democratic institutions and political manipulation operate. However, this theory could not be proved by testing the pattern of Poland, neither in the case of budget balances nor for state expenditures. Despite the fact that some fiscal cycle effects were found in public sector wages and pensions in the election period of 1997 and 2001, these proved to be temporary, and simultaneously some other measures were identified that counterbalanced the effects of pork barrel spending. Overall, the cyclical evolution of the budget balances in Poland, particularly in the nineties, was not a result of political budget cycles.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classifications: D72, E62, H3

• Institutional diversity and economic performance

  Silvana Malle

  Views:

  85

  Definition and role of institutions. Institutions are diverse: examples from OECD countries. Does institutional diversity matter for comparative economic performance? The problem of measurement. Do institutions tend to converge or diversify further? What are the driving forces? What did we learn from institution building in transition economies? Need for a better understanding of interactions between institutions and policies. The OECD work and
  experience. Conclusion: the need for a vision.