Search

Search Results

• Több hitel, nagyobb kockázat

  185-200

  Balazs Csonto

  Dora Siklos

  Views:

  168

  The main goal of this paper is to analyse the characteristics of the rapid credit growth in Hungary in recent years. The availability of credit is crucial for households who want to smooth their consumption and for firms, while the amount of credit affects the monetary transmission mechanism and financial stability risks. We analyse the reasons for the credit expansion and demonstrate that the increase in the amount of credit can improve the efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism, We analyse the micro risks induced by credit growth. Finally we demonstrate Krugman's model (1999) in connection with the Asian crises and then we try to prove that the growth of foregin-currency denominated credit decreases the ability of monetary policy to affect aggregate demand.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E51.

• The equilibrium problems of the Hungarian economy and the theoretic possibility of a solution

  85-102

  Gyorgy Szakolczai

  Views:

  138

  Followinf article analyses the question, how the twin deficit - the joint deficit of the budget and the current account - changed in Hungary between 2000 and 2006. The first part deals with the basic identities of the national accounts. The second, analytical part, looks through the latest data about the import surplus, the balance of owners' income and the inland consumption surplus, then it deals with the current account deficit and the ways of financing it, the current expenses, the net accumulation and the borrowing of the government budget. The third part performs the economic analysis and draws the main conclusions. According to this, the drastic decrease in proportion of the gross accumulation, the virtually zero net accumulation of the government sector, the deficit of the current account and the debt generating way to finance it are way more serious problems than the cudget deficit, which does not mean, that such deficit is sustainable. Even this situation does not justify the radical demolition of the welfare state, the theoretic solution can only be the increase of export capacity and the employment.