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• The probable impact of policies and policy measures on globalisation

  49-72

  Miklós Losoncz

  Views:

  165

  This paper aims to identify the impact of the recent economic and non-economic shocks on the globalisation of trade in terms of trade policy and structural openness, and to take a side in the discussion about the reversal, the slowdown, and the continuation of trade globalisation. The report argues that geopolitical decisions based on pure political priorities and different macro- and micro-policies may
  harm trade globalisation temporarily. Nevertheless, in the long run, underlying
  economic factors, such as decreasing trade costs and expanding services trade remain the critical driving forces of globalisation. The speed of the process is likely
  to be slower than before, and its characteristics are different. With weakening multilateralism and increasing fragmentation, the emerging global world order will be suboptimal from the point of view of economic efficiency. 

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: F01, F02, F13, F60.

• Analysis of Fiscal Policy in the Countries of the PaCifiCa

  109-126

  Andrea Postenyi

  Views:

  132

  Volatility has been a main factor in Latin America for decades, but these countries have managed to eliminate it more or less successfully by a series of reforms over the last few decades. Regional integrations have emerged in response to the challenges of globalisation. The most recently created integration is the PaCifiCa, and it is worth analyzing the current fiscal situation of its member states, which largely determines the success of future cooperation. Although the four countries observed managed to survive the 2007-2009 crisis with stable fundamentals, the downturn drew attention to the differences between these countries: while Chile and Peru are able to react easily to cyclical swings by applying countercyclical policy, the economies of Colombia and Mexico are much more vulnerable. The assessment of the welfare systems shows that although Chile has an extensive welfare system, the countries in the region still significantly lag behind the traditional concept of welfare state.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) code: H50, H60

• Human Capital and EU-Enlargement

  83-92

  Dietmar Meyer

  Views:

  98

  The enlargement of the European Union is an almost everywhere accepted necessity, but at the same time of course also a compromise. Economies or regions of different economic, social, institutional, etc. development become united in Europe with a territory from the Atlantic to the Eastern borders of Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, from the Baltic Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. This integration process going along with the worldwide globalisation will imply a new distribution, or a redistribution of the factors of production. First of all the human capital will be touched by this development.2 One of the most important results found by social sciences in the 20th century is the realisation of the immense role played by human factors in the process of economic development. The extremely high efficiency of human capital and the high mobility could diminish the regional differences in the economic development and therefore in the social life. But even this is one reason for the mentioned re-allocation of the human capital. In the frame of a very simple static model (See e. g. Bishi – Kopel [2002]) the flow of human capital between different regions – called the European Union and the New Member States – will be analysed. The introduction of search costs extends the field of policy-analysis.

• Az európai növekedési potenciál eróziója

  5-23

  Peter Halmai

  Views:

  108

  The potential growth rate in the EU Member States has been declining and lagging behind their competitors since the 1990's. Due to severe productivity problems in the EU (first of all the significant decrease in the total factor productivity dynamics) and the insufficient adaptation to the processes of globalisation, further remarkable and permanent decline in the potential growth rate is expected. Paradoxically the potential growth rate might decrease in the long run to a greater extent in the new Member States. As a result of the present global economic crisis new risks might appear. The riskss of the recurrence of shocks are significant. These factors project further erosion of the European growth potential. Integrated structural reforms and a comprehensive review of the European model are needed in order to overcome the unfavourable trends and put Europe on a more favourable growth path than the one indicated in this study.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: F15, F43