dEjournals Nyitóoldal
Competitio
Online megjelent Aktuális Legtöbbet olvasott Archívum Keresés
Regisztráció Bejelentkezés

Competitio

Megjelenés előtti cikkek
Tanulmányok

The probable impact of policies and policy measures on globalisation

Megjelent:
December 8, 2023
DOI Linkhttps://doi.org/10.21845/comp/2023/1–2/4.
Szerző
Losoncz Miklós
Megtekintés
en
Kulcsszavak
export control import protectionism trade policy and structural openness subsidies globalisation deglobalisation regionalisation
Licenc

Copyright (c) 2023 Miklós Losoncz

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How To Cite
Kiválasztott formátum: APA
Losoncz, M. (2023). The probable impact of policies and policy measures on globalisation. Competitio. https://doi.org/10.21845/comp/2023/1–2/4.
Beküldött 2023-06-13
Elfogadott 2023-06-23
Publikált 2023-12-08
Absztrakt

This paper aims to identify the impact of the recent economic and non-economic shocks on the globalisation of trade in terms of trade policy and structural openness, and to take a side in the discussion about the reversal, the slowdown, and the continuation of trade globalisation. The report argues that geopolitical decisions based on pure political priorities and different macro- and micro-policies may
harm trade globalisation temporarily. Nevertheless, in the long run, underlying
economic factors, such as decreasing trade costs and expanding services trade remain the critical driving forces of globalisation. The speed of the process is likely
to be slower than before, and its characteristics are different. With weakening multilateralism and increasing fragmentation, the emerging global world order will be suboptimal from the point of view of economic efficiency. 

Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: F01, F02, F13, F60.

Hivatkozások
  1. Aiyar, S. – Ilyina, A. (2023): Charting Globalisation's Turn to Slowbalisation After the Global Crisis, 8 February https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/02/08/charting-globalizations-turn-to-slowbalization-after-global-financial-crisis
  2. Antràs, P. (2020): De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age, NBER Working Papers 28115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28115/w28115.pdf
  3. Baldwin, R. (2022a). Globalisation and macroeconomics: Globalisation and automation of the service sector. In: Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world. ECB Forum on Central Banking, European Central Bank, 27.29 June https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/ecbforum/shared/pdf/2022/Baldwin_paper.pdf
  4. Baldwin R. (2022b). The peak globalisation myth: Part 1 31 August, VoxEU Columns https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/peak-globalisation-myth-part-1
  5. Baldwin R. (2022c). The peak globalisation myth: Part 2 – Why the goods trade ratio declined VoxEU Columns, 1 September https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/peak-globalisation-myth-part-2-why-goods-trade-ratio-declined
  6. Baldwin R. (2022d). The peak globalisation myth: Part 3- How global supply chains are unwinding, VoxEU Columns, 2 September https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/peak-globalisation-myth-part-3-how-global-supply-chains-are-unwinding
  7. Baldwin R. (2022e): The peak globalisation myth: Part 1 VoxEU Columns, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/peak-globalisation-myth-part-4-services-trade-did-not-peak
  8. Benz, A., Jaax, A., Yotov (2022). Shedding light on the drives of services traceability over two decades. OECD Trade Policy Paper, No. 264, October https://www.oecd.org/publications/shedding-light-on-the-drivers-of-services-tradability-over-two-decades-d5f3c149-en.htm
  9. Bremmer, I. (2022). Globalisation Isn't Dead. The World Is More Fragmented, but Interdependence Still Rules, Foreign Affairs, 25 October, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/globalization-isnt-dead
  10. Coy, P. (2022). Globalisation Isn't Over. It's changing. The New York Times, 11 April https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/11/opinion/globalization.html
  11. Drezner, d. (2023). Are we headed toward a "polycrisis"? The buzzword of the moment explained. The concept of "poly-crisis" was everywhere in Davos. But is it saying anything meaningful? Vox, 28 January https://www.vox.com/23572710/polycrisis-davos-history-climate-russia-ukraine-inflation
  12. European Commission (2023). EU agrees 10th package of sanctions against Russia Press release. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1185
  13. Georgieva, J. (2023). Confronting Fragmentation Where it Matters Most: Trade, Debt, and Climate Action. 16 January https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/01/16/Confronting-fragmentation-where-it-matters-most-trade-debt-and-climate-action
  14. Huiyao, W. (2022). Globalisation Isn't Dead, It's Just Not American Anymore Analysis The Washington Post, 7 May, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/globalization-isnt-dead-its-just-not-american-anymore/2022/05/06/d36f8908-cda1-11ec-b7ee-74f09d827ca6_story.html
  15. International Monetary Fund (2023). Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism. Staff Discussion Note, 15 January https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2023/01/11/Geo-Economic-Fragmentation-and-the-Future-of-Multilateralism-527266
  16. James, H. (2021). Globalization's Coming Golden Age. Why does crisis end in Connection? Foreign Affairs, Volume 100, Number 3, May/June, pp.10-19
  17. Kim, H.M., Li, P., Lee, Y. R. (2020). Observations of deglobalisation against globalisation and impacts on global business International Trade, Politics and Development Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 83-103, Emerald Publishing Limited. DOI 10.1108/ITPD-05-2020-0067
  18. Kruger, A. O. (2023). Multilateralism Is Still Better. Project Syndicate, 16 February https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/multilateralism-more-effective-less-costly-than-self-sufficiency-industrial-policy-tariffs-by-anne-o-krueger-2023-02
  19. Lehne, S. (2023). After Russia's War Against Ukraine: What Kind of World Order? Carnegie Europe, 28 February. https://carnegieeurope.eu/2023/02/28/after-russia-s-war-against-ukraine-what-kind-of-world-order-pub-89130
  20. Losoncz, M. (2022): Gazdasági globalizáció és fenntarthatóság. Educatio 31 (4), pp. 555–570 (2022) https://doi.org/10.1556/2063.31.2022.4.3 Available in English under the title Economic globalisation and sustainability: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368855623_Economic_globalisation_and_sustainability
  21. OECD (2022): Trade facilitation reforms worldwide. State of play in 2022. OECD Trade Policy Paper, July No 263 https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/ce7af2ce-en.pdf?expires=1679062670&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=27CD664D076E5AAB5AA23E1549B6B27D
  22. Rajan, R., G. (2023). The Gospel of Deglobalization. What's the Cost of a Fractured Global Economy? Foreign Affairs, January/February, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/gospel-deglobalization-fractured-world-economy
  23. Sapir, A. (2022). Is globalisation really doomed? Bruegel Blog, 3 November, https://www.bruegel.org/blog-post/globalisation-really-doomed
  24. The Economist (2019): The global list. Globalisation has faltered and is now being reshaped. 26 January, pp. 19-20 https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/01/24/globalisation-has-faltered
  25. The Economist (2023a): Return to sender. The re-globalisation paradox, January 21st, pp. 61-62
  26. The Economist (2023b): Shock therapy. Business and the climate, 18 February, p. 36
  27. The Economist (2023c): The case for optimism. globalisation seems in bad shape. but deep-rooted forces suggest reasons for hope. 18 February, p. 66.
  28. The Economist (2023d): Zero-sum. The destructive logic that threatens globalisation. January 14th, p. 9
  29. The White House (2023): National Security Strategy, October 2022 https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf
  30. Tooze, A. (2022). Welcome to the world of the poll crisis. Financial Times, 28 October https://www.ft.com/content/498398e7-11b1-494b-9cd3-6d669dc3de33
  31. Tooze, A. (2023). Three ways to read the 'deglobalisation' debate. Financial Times 30 January https://www.ft.com/content/b3f41263-88d9-4012-aafc-145f0327678f
  32. Viner, J. (1950). The Customs Union Issue. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, New York.
  33. Wolf, M. (2022a). Geopolitics is the biggest threat to globalisation. Financial Times, 1 November, https://www.ft.com/content/8954a5f8-8f03-4044-8401-f1efefe9791b
  34. Wolf, M. (2022b). Globalisation is not dying, it's changing, Financial Times, 13 September https://www.ft.com/content/f6fe91ab-39f9-44b0-bff6-505ff6c665a1
  35. World Economic Forum (2023): The Global Risks Report 2023, 8th Edition, Insight Report, January https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf
  36. World Trade Organization (2022): Overview of Developments in the International Trading Environment. Annual Report by the Director-General (Mid-October 2021 to mid-October 2022) https://d3ipxbzibstf0l.cloudfront.net/reports/53-report.pdf
  37. WTO-OECD (2021): Services domestic regulation in the WTO: Cutting red tape, slashing trade costs, and facilitating services trade OECD-WTO Trade Policy Brief November https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news21_e/jssdr_26nov21_e.pdf
  38. Endnotes
  39. Professor at the Department of Finance and Accountancy of Budapest Business School, University of Applied Sciences. E-mail: Losoncz.miklos@uni-bge.hu
  40. Chapter 3.2. of the World Economic Forum (2023) discussed the possibility of a poly-crisis in natural resources, climate, and cooperation. For a more detailed explanation, see Drezner (2023).
  41. The most widespread general definition of globalisation is the following. "Globalisation…is the process of increasingly free flow of ideas, people, goods, services, and capital across borders that leads to greater economic integration." (International Monetary Fund 2023, p. 6.) Expertise and intellectual property can be added to this list. For many years, globalisation has been interpreted as across-the-board liberalisation; this perception is the focus of this study.
  42. This time sequencing is widely accepted in the relevant literature.
  43. E.g., the US suspended the Appellate Body of the WTO's dispute settlement system.
  44. Source as of 21 March 2023: https://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicMaintainRTAHome.aspx
  45. Near-shoring: making products closer to home. Friend-shoring: the practice of relocating supply chains to countries where the risk of disruption from political chaos is low. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/business/friendshoring-jargon-business.html
  46. https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file
  47. There are other types of government interventions in the US. The US government introduced tax credits for consumers purchasing electric vehicles meeting local value-added requirements of USD 7,500. The federal government's subsidies for electric vehicle production total USD7 billion for constructing new semiconductor facilities US39 billion (Kruger, 2023). According to the "Made in America" Executive Order 14005, the obligatory local content will be raised from 55 per cent gradually to 75 per cent and the price preference of domestic goods to the 20-30 per cent range (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2021-01-28/pdf/2021-02038.pdf ).
  48. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/european-chips-act_en
  49. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/#cooperation
  50. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en
  51. https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tradfa_e/tradfa_e.htm
  52. They raise trade costs.
  53. Measures streamlining and simplifying the technical and legal procedures for products crossing the border country in both directions to trade internationally. They reduce trade costs.
  54. https://www.globaltradealert.org/global_dynamics
  55. According to 2021 figures, EU sanctions comprise Russian exports valued at EUR43.9 billion (accounting for 49 per cent of its total exports to Russia) and EUR91.3 billion worth of Russian imports (corresponding to 58 per cent of its total imports from Russia). (European Commission 2023)
  56. A product manufactured legally abroad is imported without the permission of the intellectual property right-holder.
  57. The two terms are used as synonyms, although there could be slight differences in the interpretation. This report follows the pattern of the respective literature sources cited.
  58. Economic globalisation includes factors other than trade, which may cause distortions in comparing the figures discussed in this paper.
  59. https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html
  60. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive
  61. https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tradfa_e/tradfa_e.htm
  62. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news23_e/fac_27mar23_e.htm
  63. Intermediate services are provided by bookkeepers, forensic accountants, CV screeners, administrative assistants, online client help staff, graphic designers, copy editors, personal assistants, travel agents, software engineers, lawyers, financial analysts, etc. (Baldwin, 2022a).
  64. https://www.oecd.org/trade/topics/global-value-chains-and-trade/