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• The dynamic of Hungary's Agro-Food Trade in the Global Economy

  26-35

  Imre Ferto

  Views:

  124

  We analyse the evolving pattern of Hungary's agro-food trade using recently developed emprirical procedures based around the classic Balassa index and its symmetric transformation. The extent of trade specialisation exhibits a declining trend; Hungary has lost comparative advantage for a number of product groups over time. The indices of specialisation have also tended to converge. For particular product groups, the indices display a less persistent pattern. They are stable for product groups with comparative disadvantage, but product groups with weak or strong comparative advantage show significant variation. The results reinforce the finding of a general decrease in specialisation but do not support the idea of self-reinforcing mechanisms, emphasised strongly in much of the endogenous groeth and trade literature.

• Trade Advantage and Competitiveness of Hungarian Agri-food Exports with the European Union

  87-102

  Imre Ferto

  Views:

  111

  The complementarities of trade advantage and trade competitiveness measures for Hungarian agro-food trade with the European Union are analyzed. The stability and duration of the trade measures over time is investigated by survival analysis using the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator and the consistency test between the trade measures is conducted by the stratified Cox proportional hazard model. Hungary experienced a greater number of products with relative trade disadvantages and a greater significance of one-way imports. Hungary also experienced relative trade advantages for bulk raw commodities, processed intermediates, and horticulture, with the greatest significance of successful quality competition and one-way exports, and the lowest significance of unsuccessful price
  and unsuccessful quality competition. The duration of relative trade advantages is longer than the duration for the successful trade competition categories. Our results confirm that relative trade advantage is consistent with the one-way export and the successful price and successful quality competition categories in two-way trade on the one hand, and relative trade disadvantage with the one-way import and the unsuccessful price and unsuccessful quality competition on the other.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: Q12

• Integration of the CEE agri-food sector into the EU: What does trade theory and empirical evidence tell us?

  62-77

  Imre Ferto

  Views:

  149

  The article provides an overview on the main results of empirical research into the Integration of the CEE agri-food sector into the EU. Contrary to early expectations, countries in the region have not become major agri-food exporters. We can observe great diversity in trade specialisations, the patterns of intra-industry trade and price and quality competitiveness among countries and major product groups. These outcomes derive mainly from the differences in relative factor endowments and the different initial conditions of the countries concerned. The recent theoretical and empirical developments in international
  trade may help us to better understand the agri-food trade integration of new member states.

  JEL classification: Q12